Biostatistics Seminar Series: Introduction to Infectious Disease Modeling

In this short introductory session, we will get acquainted with the fundamental principles of infectious disease modeling. We will use toy models to gain intuition on how pathogens spread in society. We will explore the conditions that allow a pathogen to spread and the circumstances that inhibit transmission. Stochastic agent-based simulation models will enable us to see how contacts between individuals may lead to an outbreak, while simple equations would allow us to represent the same process formally. The sessions will cover the following topics:

• The forest fire model and the tipping point of the percolation process
• An agent-based model of Susceptible and Infectious individuals (SI ABM)
• The equations of the SI model
• An agent-based model of Susceptible, Infectious and Recovered individuals (SIR ABM)
• Statistical exploration of the SIR ABM model
• The contact rate and infectious period parameters
• The conditions for an outbreak
• Intuitive derivation of the basic reproduction number
• Measuring the basic reproduction number
• The equations of the SIR model
• Derivation of the basic reproduction number from the SIR equation
• The herd immunity threshold and vaccination level to induce it

Session 1: 11:00 AM - 12:00 PM
Session 2: 12:00 PM - 2:00 PM