Joshua Epstein

Professor of Epidemiology

Professional overview

Joshua Epstein is Professor of Epidemiology in the NYU School of Global Public Health, and founding Director of the NYU Agent-Based Modeling Laboratory, with affiliated appointments at The Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences, and the College of Arts & Sciences. Prior to joining NYU, he was Professor of Emergency Medicine at Johns Hopkins, and Director of the Center for Advanced Modeling in the Social, Behavior, and Health Sciences, with Joint appointments in Economics, Applied Mathematics, International Health, and Biostatistics. Before that, he was  Senior Fellow in Economic Studies at the Brookings Institution and Director of the Center on Social and Economic Dynamics. His research interest has been modeling complex social dynamics using mathematical and computational methods, notably the method of Agent-Based Modeling in which he is a recognized pioneer. For this transformative innovation, he was awarded the NIH Director’s Pioneer Award in 2008, an Honorary Doctorate of Science from Amherst College in 2010, and was elected to the Society of Sigma XI in 2018. He has applied this method to the study of infectious diseases (e.g., Ebola, pandemic influenza, and smallpox), vector-borne diseases (e.g., zika), urban disaster preparedness, contagious violence, the evolution of norms, economic dynamics, computational archaeology, and the emergence of social classes, among many other topics. His books include Nonlinear Dynamics, Mathematical Biology, and Social Science (Wiley 1997), Generative Social Science: Studies in Agent-Based Computational Modeling (Princeton, 2006), Agent_Zero: Toward Neurocognitive Foundations for Generative Social Science (Princeton, 2013), and with Robert Axtell, Growing Artificial Societies: Social Science from the Bottom Up (MIT, 1996). Dr. Epstein earned his BA from Amherst College and his Ph.D. from The Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

Education

BA, Independent Scholar with Thesis in Political Economy, Amherst College, Amherst, MA

PhD, Political Science (Specialization: Security Studies, Communist Studies, and Economics), Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA

Honors and awards

Honorary Doctorate of Science, Amherst College (2010)

Director’s Pioneer Award, National Institutes of Health (2008)

Rockefeller Foundation International Relations Fellowship (1984)

Council on Foreign Relations International Affairs Fellowship (1983)

Ford Foundation Dual Expertise Fellowship in Soviet/East European Area Studies and International Security/Arms Control (1981)

Institute for the Study of World Politics Fellowship (1981)

Areas of research and study

Agent-Based Modeling

Applied Economics

Cost Analysis

Disaster Health

Epidemiology

Health Economics

Infectious Diseases

Mathematical and Computational Modeling

Modeling Social and Behavioral Dynamics

New York Department of Health and Mental Hygiene

Public Health Systems

Urban Health

Urban Informatics

Urban Science

Presentations

Agent Zero and Generative Social Science

Agent Zero and Integrative Economics

Publications

Publications

Understanding Anasazi Culture Change Through Agent-Based Modeling

Agent-Based Computational Models and Generative Social Science

Agent-based computational models and generative social science

Coordination in Transient Social Networks: An Agent-Based Computational Model of the Timing of Retirement

Zones of cooperation in demographic prisoner’s dilemma

Aligning Simulation Models: A Case Study and Results

Growing Artificial Societies: Social Science from the Bottom Up

Agent-Based Modeling: Understanding Our Creations

On the Mathematical Biology of Arms Races, Wars, and Revolutions

The Adaptive Dynamic Model of War

War With Iraq: What Price Victory?

Controlling the Greenhouse Effect: Five Global Regimes Compared

Conventional Force Reductions: A Dynamic Assessment

The 3:1 Rule, the Adaptive Dynamic Model, and the Future of Security Studies

Dynamic Analysis and the Conventional Balance in Europe

Strategy and Force Planning: The Case of the Persian Gulf

Assessing the Military Balance: Defense Analysis and the Defense Debate

The 1987 Defense Budget

The 1988 Defense Budget

The Calculus of Conventional War: Dynamic Analysis Without Lanchester Theory

Measuring Military Power

Horizontal Escalation: Sour Notes of a Recurrent Theme

On Conventional Deterrence in Europe: Questions of Soviet Confidence

Soviet Vulnerabilities in Iran and the RDF Deterrent

The Extended Calculus of Spencer Brown and Related Areas of Logic and Mathematics