Jose Pagan
Jose Pagan
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Chair and Professor of the Department of Public Health Policy and Management
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Professional overview
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Dr. Pagán received his PhD in economics from the University of New Mexico and is a former Robert Wood Johnson Foundation Health & Society Scholar with expertise in health economics and population health. He has led research, implementation, and evaluation projects on the redesign of health care delivery and payment systems. He is interested in population health management, health care payment and delivery system reform, and the social determinants of health. Over the years his research has been funded through grants and contracts from the Department of Defense, the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality, the National Institutes of Health, the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, the European Commission, and the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation, among others.
Dr. Pagán is Chair of the Board of Directors of NYC Health + Hospitals, the largest public healthcare system in the United States. He also served as Chair of the National Advisory Committee of the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation’s Health Policy Research Scholars and was a member of the Board of Directors of the Interdisciplinary Association for Population Health Science and the American Society of Health Economists.
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Areas of research and study
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Applied EconomicsHealth EconomicsPopulation HealthPublic Health Policy
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Publications
Publications
The Economic Impact of Worker Displacement in the US/Mexico Border Region
Pagan, J. (n.d.). In J. Pagán (Ed.), Worker Displacement in the US/Mexico Border Region (1–).Publication year
2004Worker Displacement in the US/Mexico Border Region
Pagan, J. (Ed.). (n.d.). (1–).Publication year
2004Government spending, taxation, and oil revenues in Mexico
AbstractTijerina-Guajardo, J. A., & Pagán, J. A. (n.d.).Publication year
2003Journal title
Review of Development EconomicsVolume
7Issue
1Page(s)
152-164AbstractThe paper analyzes the intertemporal relationship between oil duties, taxes, government spending, and GDP in Mexico during the 1981-98 period. The results from estimating a VAR model, impulse response functions. and variance decompositions on the quarterly series of taxes, government spending, oil duties, and GDP suggest that there seems to be a substitution effect between oil duties and tax revenues, and that tax revenues are not able to absorb temporary decreases in oil duties. Also, increases in tax revenue might lead to increasing government spending, but short-run increases in government spending are not likely to lead to political pressure to reduce the expected budget deficit via increased taxation and/or oil revenues. Lastly. GDP is not stimulated in the short-run by temporary increases in government spending and, thus, stabilization measures adopted in recent years to reduce the size of the government are not likely to significantly undermine GDP growth.Just-in-time purchasing and technical efficiency in the US manufacturing sector
AbstractKaynak, H., & Pagán, J. A. (n.d.).Publication year
2003Journal title
International Journal of Production ResearchVolume
41Issue
1Page(s)
1-14AbstractThis paper analyses the technical productive efficiency effects of implementing just-in-time purchasing (JITP) techniques in the US manufacturing industry. The impact of JITP techniques on technical efficiency is modelled using a stochastic frontier production function that explicitly accounts for JITP-induced efficiency effects. The empirical results suggest that characteristics internal to the organization, such as top management commitment to implementing JITP, are related to higher productive efficiency. External characteristics, such as supplier value-added, or transportation issues, do not appear to be associated with increasing productive efficiency.Sectoral queuing in a transitional economy: The case of Nicaragua in the 1990s
AbstractPisani, M. J., & Pagán, J. A. (n.d.).Publication year
2003Journal title
LabourVolume
17Issue
4Page(s)
571-597AbstractUsing microdata from the 1993 and 1998 Living Standards Measurement Survey (LSMS) of Nicaragua, this paper analyzes the propensity of informal sector workers to queue for formal sector employment as well as employer behavior related to the selection of individuals from the informal sector queue. The nature of the queue is also examined over time to determine informal sector workers' response to national market-based reforms. The results indicate that informal workers do indeed queue for formal sector employment and the nature of the queue has become more pronounced during the time period under consideration.Employment shifts, economic reform and the changes in public/private sector wages in Mexico: 1987-1997
AbstractPagán, J. A., Gil, J. V., & Tijerina Guajardo, J. A. (n.d.).Publication year
2002Journal title
Empirical EconomicsVolume
27Issue
3Page(s)
447-460AbstractOver the last decade, the public sector in Mexico experienced substantial fiscal reform, divestiture of public enterprises, and the elimination of many regulations affecting pay and employment. This study analyzes the changes in the public/private sector differences in wages during the 1987-1997 period. The results from analyzing microdata from the Encuesta Nacional de Empleo Urbano show that relative public sector wages increased from 1987 to 1997. Most of the relative wage increase in the public sector can be explained by increases in the price of skills and by changes in sorting across sectors. The results have important public policy implications since they suggest that public sector workers earn more and their wages have grown faster than those of their private sector counterparts. As such, policies contemplating public sector reform should take into account the effect of these measures on the inter-sectoral income distribution and the overall economic growth.Executive compensation and corporate production efficiency: a stochastic frontier approach
Baek, H., & Pagan, J. (n.d.).Publication year
2002Journal title
Quarterly Journal of Business and EconomicsVolume
41Issue
1Page(s)
27-42Gender differences in labor market decisions in rural Guatemala
AbstractPagán, J. A. (n.d.).Publication year
2002Journal title
Review of Development EconomicsVolume
6Issue
3Page(s)
428-441AbstractThis study analyzes male-female differences in workforce participation and self-employment in rural Guatemala. Gender differences in rural labor market outcomes are examined using the 1997 Survey of Rural Entrepreneurs and Financial Services, conducted in the rural areas of the departments of San Marcos. Quezaltenango, Huehuetenango. Alta Verapaz, Petén, and Chimiquimula. There are substantial differences in the labor force participation rates of men and women (86.5 vs 24.0 percent) and in self-employment (49.8 vs 31.9 percent). The empirical results suggest that external constraints explain almost all of the observed gender gap in employment. Gender differences in individual endowments and human capital contribute to increase the male-female self-employment gap: however, structural factors help to reduce gender differences in rural entrepreneurship.Introduction [Symposium: Contemporary Economic Issues in Mexico]
Pagan, J. (n.d.).Publication year
2002Journal title
Eastern Economic JournalVolume
28Issue
3Page(s)
363-4Job queuing in Mexico’s Maquiladoras
Otero, R., & Pagan, J. (n.d.).Publication year
2002Journal title
Eastern Economic JournalVolume
28Issue
3Page(s)
393-408The impact of diabetes on adult employment and earnings of Mexican Americans: Findings from a community based study
AbstractBastida, E., & Pagán, J. A. (n.d.).Publication year
2002Journal title
Health EconomicsVolume
11Issue
5Page(s)
403-413AbstractEpidemiological studies indicate that minority populations in the US - including African Americans, Native Americans and Mexican Americans - are particularly at risk for diabetes and that their complications are more frequent and severe. Using microdata from a 1994-1999 population based study of middle aged and older Mexican Americans in the Southwest, this study analyzes the impact of diabetes on the employment and earnings outcomes of adults 45 years of age and older. The empirical results from estimating maximum likelihood employment and earnings models suggest that diabetes leads to lower productivity and earnings for women but has no statistically significant impact on their employment probability. In the case of men, however, diabetes leads to a lower employment propensity but has no effect on earnings. Thus, the problems associated with this condition could lead to potential future financial difficulties particularly for high-risk populations in their later years.The short-term and long-term deterrence effects of INS border and interior enforcement on undocumented immigration
AbstractDávila, A., Pagán, J. A., & Soydemir, G. (n.d.).Publication year
2002Journal title
Journal of Economic Behavior and OrganizationVolume
49Issue
4Page(s)
459-472AbstractThis paper analyzes the short-term and long-term deterrence effects of INS border and interior enforcement. Utilizing FY1983-FY1997 border and interior apprehensions and patrol hours data from the INS, we estimate a four-variable VAR model and find that Border Patrol enforcement has significant short-term deterrence effects. These effects are short-lived as undocumented migrants seemingly adjust to new information. Moreover, the non-existent long-term effects are apparently the consequence of basic economic fundamentals: our analysis employing microdata from both Mexico and the US suggests that the wage gap between Mexico and the US is sufficiently large to maintain the illegal migratory flow.Assessing the need for microenterprises in Mexico to borrow start-up capital
Heino, H., & Pagan, J. (n.d.).Publication year
2001Journal title
Journal of MicrofinanceVolume
3Issue
1Page(s)
131-44Explaining Gender Differences in Earnings in the Microenterprise Sector
Sánchez, S., & Pagan, J. (n.d.). In M. Correia & E. Katz (Eds.), The Economics of Gender in Mexico (1–).Publication year
2001Gender Issues in Workforce Participation and Self- Employment in Rural Mexico
Pagan, J., & Sánchez, S. M. (n.d.). In M. Correia & E. Katz (Eds.), The Economics of Gender in Mexico (1–).Publication year
2001Response asymmetries in the Latin American equity markets
AbstractPagán, J. A., & Soydemir, G. A. (n.d.).Publication year
2001Journal title
International Review of Financial AnalysisVolume
10Issue
2Page(s)
175-185AbstractRecent empirical work has found causal relationships with varying degrees of strength from the equity market of Mexico to the markets of Argentina, Brazil, and Chile. In this study, we analyze the possibility of response asymmetries in these causal relationships. In particular, using the 1995-1999 daily data on equity price indices from the International Finance Corporation's (IFC) Emerging Markets Database, we analyze market interconnectedness by explicitly taking into account country-specific response anomalies. We find statistically significant asymmetries in the responses of Argentina, Brazil, and Chile to changes in the Mexican equity market - with responses to downturns much outweighing upturns in the equity market of Mexico. The results are consistent with the view that when investing in emerging equity markets in Latin America, investors react to negative stock market movements originating in the Mexican market more heavily than to positive movements.The evolution of VAT rates and government tax revenue in Mexico
AbstractPagán, J. A., Soydemir, G., & Tijerina-Guajardo, J. A. (n.d.).Publication year
2001Journal title
Contemporary Economic PolicyVolume
19Issue
4Page(s)
424-433AbstractAs a response to the 1994 Mexican peso crisis, in April 1995 the Mexican government increased the Value Added Tax (VAT) rate from 10 to 15%. More recently, policy makers have debated the potential economic impact of a reduction in the VAT rate on VAT revenue. Using a vector autoregression (VAR) model, this article analyzes the dynamics between government spending, inflation, the VAT rate, and VAT revenue in Mexico. The results from the estimated impulse response functions and variance decompositions indicate that VAT rate hikes lead to increases in government tax receipts. Further, tax collections play an important role in explaining movements in the rate of inflation in the Mexican economy. Overall, the findings are consistent with the view that increases (decreases) in the VAT rate result in larger (smaller) tax revenues.The impact of promotional/advertising expenditures on citrus sales
AbstractPagán, J., Sethi, S., & Soydemir, G. A. (n.d.).Publication year
2001Journal title
Applied Economics LettersVolume
8Issue
10Page(s)
659-663AbstractThis study analyses the impact of advertising expenditures on citrus sales from the Texas Rio Grande Valley. A bivariate vector autoregressive model is estimated using weekly data on the dollar value of advertising expenditures and carton equivalent shipments for the 1993-1999 growing seasons. The estimated impulse response functions show that a one-time increase in advertising expenditures leads to increases in orange sales with a one-month lag. However, the impact of advertising on grapefruit sales is more immediate and relatively large. Carton shipments remain high for about three weeks after a one-time advertising shock. There is also no evidence of causality from sales to advertising. The results suggest that Federal Marketing Order regulations that facilitate funds for the promotion and advertising of citrus are effective in increasing the domestic consumption of oranges and grapefruit.U.S./Mexico border economic development and the informal sector in Mexico: 1987-1997
Brown, C., Pagan, J., & Petrie, A. (n.d.).Publication year
2001Journal title
Journal of Emerging MarketsVolume
6Issue
1Page(s)
37-46Gender differences in labor market decisions: Evidence from rural Mexico
Pagán, J. A., & Sánchez, S. M. (n.d.).Publication year
2000Journal title
Economic Development and Cultural ChangeVolume
48Issue
3Page(s)
618-637Group heterogeneity and the gender earnings gap in Mexico
Pagan, J., & Ullibarri, M. (n.d.).Publication year
2000Journal title
Economía MexicanaVolume
9Issue
1Page(s)
23-40Increasing wage dispersion and the changes in relative employment and wages in Mexico's urban informal sector: 1987-1993
AbstractPagán, J. A., & Tijerina-Guajardo, J. A. (n.d.).Publication year
2000Journal title
Applied EconomicsVolume
32Issue
3Page(s)
335-347AbstractThis study analyses the role of changes in informal/formal relative employment, wage levels and wage inequality in explaining increasing wage dispersion in Mexico during the 1987-1993 period. From 1987 to 1993, the variance of the log of hourly wages for Mexican workers increased by more than 50 per cent. Using data from the Encuesta nacional de empleo urbano we find that this increase in the overall wage dispersion was mainly driven by increasing wage dispersion in the formal sector coupled with a faster growth in formal sector employment as a percentage of total employment. However, compression in the distribution of wages within the informal sector contributed to substantially slowdown the increasing overall wage inequality. About 60 per cent of the 1987-1993 4.65 percentage point reduction in the informal sector share of total employment is explained by changes in the structure that determines sectoral employment; the rest is explained by changes in the composition of the labour force, particularly increases in the sectoral education gap and a change in the regional relative share of sectoral employment. Also, from 1987 to 1993 the sectoral wage ratio increased from 0.59 to 0.63. It seems that a relative improvement in unobserved skills in the informal sector helped to close the wage differential but this effect was partially offset by an increase in the relative prices of both observed and unobserved skills, as well as increases in relative observed skills in the formal sector, particularly education.On the linkages between equity markets in Latin America
AbstractPagán, J. A., & Soydemir, G. (n.d.).Publication year
2000Journal title
Applied Economics LettersVolume
7Issue
3Page(s)
207-210AbstractThis paper utilizes a VAR model to analyse the extent of interdependency of equity markets in Latin America. The results from estimating impulse response functions suggest that there are strong linkages between the equity markets of Mexico and the US, and weaker but significant linkages between the stock markets of Argentina, Brazil and Chile. These cross-country differences in transmission patterns may result from country-specific differences in both the financial market structure as well as economic fundamentals.Privatization and European economic and monetary union
Jeronimo, V., Pagan, J., & Soydemir, G. (n.d.).Publication year
2000Journal title
Eastern Economic JournalVolume
26Issue
3Page(s)
321-33Valued-added tax revenues in Mexico: An empirical analysis
AbstractTijerina-Guajardo, J. A., & Pagán, J. A. (n.d.).Publication year
2000Journal title
Public Finance ReviewVolume
28Issue
6Page(s)
561-575AbstractThis article analyzes the effect of changes in the valued-added tax (VAT) rate on real VAT revenue in Mexico. Recently, there has been a heated debate on the optimal VAT system and the potential economic impact of a reduction in the VAT rate in the country. The results from estimating a VAT revenue model suggest that there seems to be a positive relationship between VAT revenue and the tax rate around the actual VAT rate, contrary to the assertion that there is a Laffer curve for the VAT in Mexico. A 1 percentage point change in the VAT rate results in a 2.4% change in real VAT revenues. Leaving aside other fiscal reform considerations, the results appear to be robust to alternative empirical specifications.