Jose Pagan
Jose Pagan
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Chair and Professor of the Department of Public Health Policy and Management
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Professional overview
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Dr. Pagán received his PhD in economics from the University of New Mexico and is a former Robert Wood Johnson Foundation Health & Society Scholar with expertise in health economics and population health. He has led research, implementation, and evaluation projects on the redesign of health care delivery and payment systems. He is interested in population health management, health care payment and delivery system reform, and the social determinants of health. Over the years his research has been funded through grants and contracts from the Department of Defense, the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality, the National Institutes of Health, the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, the European Commission, and the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation, among others.
Dr. Pagán is Chair of the Board of Directors of NYC Health + Hospitals, the largest public healthcare system in the United States. He also served as Chair of the National Advisory Committee of the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation’s Health Policy Research Scholars and was a member of the Board of Directors of the Interdisciplinary Association for Population Health Science and the American Society of Health Economists.
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Areas of research and study
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Applied EconomicsHealth EconomicsPopulation HealthPublic Health Policy
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Publications
Publications
The evolution of VAT rates and government tax revenue in Mexico
AbstractPagán, J. A., Soydemir, G., & Tijerina-Guajardo, J. A. (n.d.).Publication year
2001Journal title
Contemporary Economic PolicyVolume
19Issue
4Page(s)
424-433AbstractAs a response to the 1994 Mexican peso crisis, in April 1995 the Mexican government increased the Value Added Tax (VAT) rate from 10 to 15%. More recently, policy makers have debated the potential economic impact of a reduction in the VAT rate on VAT revenue. Using a vector autoregression (VAR) model, this article analyzes the dynamics between government spending, inflation, the VAT rate, and VAT revenue in Mexico. The results from the estimated impulse response functions and variance decompositions indicate that VAT rate hikes lead to increases in government tax receipts. Further, tax collections play an important role in explaining movements in the rate of inflation in the Mexican economy. Overall, the findings are consistent with the view that increases (decreases) in the VAT rate result in larger (smaller) tax revenues.The impact of promotional/advertising expenditures on citrus sales
AbstractPagán, J., Sethi, S., & Soydemir, G. A. (n.d.).Publication year
2001Journal title
Applied Economics LettersVolume
8Issue
10Page(s)
659-663AbstractThis study analyses the impact of advertising expenditures on citrus sales from the Texas Rio Grande Valley. A bivariate vector autoregressive model is estimated using weekly data on the dollar value of advertising expenditures and carton equivalent shipments for the 1993-1999 growing seasons. The estimated impulse response functions show that a one-time increase in advertising expenditures leads to increases in orange sales with a one-month lag. However, the impact of advertising on grapefruit sales is more immediate and relatively large. Carton shipments remain high for about three weeks after a one-time advertising shock. There is also no evidence of causality from sales to advertising. The results suggest that Federal Marketing Order regulations that facilitate funds for the promotion and advertising of citrus are effective in increasing the domestic consumption of oranges and grapefruit.U.S./Mexico border economic development and the informal sector in Mexico: 1987-1997
Brown, C., Pagan, J., & Petrie, A. (n.d.).Publication year
2001Journal title
Journal of Emerging MarketsVolume
6Issue
1Page(s)
37-46Gender differences in labor market decisions: Evidence from rural Mexico
Pagán, J. A., & Sánchez, S. M. (n.d.).Publication year
2000Journal title
Economic Development and Cultural ChangeVolume
48Issue
3Page(s)
618-637Group heterogeneity and the gender earnings gap in Mexico
Pagan, J., & Ullibarri, M. (n.d.).Publication year
2000Journal title
Economía MexicanaVolume
9Issue
1Page(s)
23-40Increasing wage dispersion and the changes in relative employment and wages in Mexico's urban informal sector: 1987-1993
AbstractPagán, J. A., & Tijerina-Guajardo, J. A. (n.d.).Publication year
2000Journal title
Applied EconomicsVolume
32Issue
3Page(s)
335-347AbstractThis study analyses the role of changes in informal/formal relative employment, wage levels and wage inequality in explaining increasing wage dispersion in Mexico during the 1987-1993 period. From 1987 to 1993, the variance of the log of hourly wages for Mexican workers increased by more than 50 per cent. Using data from the Encuesta nacional de empleo urbano we find that this increase in the overall wage dispersion was mainly driven by increasing wage dispersion in the formal sector coupled with a faster growth in formal sector employment as a percentage of total employment. However, compression in the distribution of wages within the informal sector contributed to substantially slowdown the increasing overall wage inequality. About 60 per cent of the 1987-1993 4.65 percentage point reduction in the informal sector share of total employment is explained by changes in the structure that determines sectoral employment; the rest is explained by changes in the composition of the labour force, particularly increases in the sectoral education gap and a change in the regional relative share of sectoral employment. Also, from 1987 to 1993 the sectoral wage ratio increased from 0.59 to 0.63. It seems that a relative improvement in unobserved skills in the informal sector helped to close the wage differential but this effect was partially offset by an increase in the relative prices of both observed and unobserved skills, as well as increases in relative observed skills in the formal sector, particularly education.On the linkages between equity markets in Latin America
AbstractPagán, J. A., & Soydemir, G. (n.d.).Publication year
2000Journal title
Applied Economics LettersVolume
7Issue
3Page(s)
207-210AbstractThis paper utilizes a VAR model to analyse the extent of interdependency of equity markets in Latin America. The results from estimating impulse response functions suggest that there are strong linkages between the equity markets of Mexico and the US, and weaker but significant linkages between the stock markets of Argentina, Brazil and Chile. These cross-country differences in transmission patterns may result from country-specific differences in both the financial market structure as well as economic fundamentals.Privatization and European economic and monetary union
Jeronimo, V., Pagan, J., & Soydemir, G. (n.d.).Publication year
2000Journal title
Eastern Economic JournalVolume
26Issue
3Page(s)
321-33Valued-added tax revenues in Mexico: An empirical analysis
AbstractTijerina-Guajardo, J. A., & Pagán, J. A. (n.d.).Publication year
2000Journal title
Public Finance ReviewVolume
28Issue
6Page(s)
561-575AbstractThis article analyzes the effect of changes in the valued-added tax (VAT) rate on real VAT revenue in Mexico. Recently, there has been a heated debate on the optimal VAT system and the potential economic impact of a reduction in the VAT rate in the country. The results from estimating a VAT revenue model suggest that there seems to be a positive relationship between VAT revenue and the tax rate around the actual VAT rate, contrary to the assertion that there is a Laffer curve for the VAT in Mexico. A 1 percentage point change in the VAT rate results in a 2.4% change in real VAT revenues. Leaving aside other fiscal reform considerations, the results appear to be robust to alternative empirical specifications.Foreign direct investment and economic growth in East Asia and Latin America
Elahee, M., & Pagan, J. (n.d.).Publication year
1999Journal title
Journal of Emerging MarketsVolume
4Issue
1Page(s)
59-67Gender pay and occupational-attainment gaps in Costa Rica and El Salvador: A relative comparison of the late 1980s
AbstractDávila, A., & Pagán, J. A. (n.d.).Publication year
1999Journal title
Review of Development EconomicsVolume
3Issue
2Page(s)
215-230AbstractThis study investigates gender occupational attainment and earnings differentials in El Salvador and Costa Rica at the end of the 1980s. During this decade, El Salvador experienced a civil war and an economic depression. Costa Rica was also mired in a recession in the early 1980s, but programs adopted in the mid-1980s led to rapid economic recovery. It is found that the gender pay gap in El Salvador is 30.4% and 23.6% in Costa Rica. The intercountry difference in the gap disappears after accounting for high gender differences in occupational attainment and hours worked in El Salvador.Immigration reform, the INS, and the distribution of interior and border enforcement resources
AbstractDávila, A., Pagán, J. A., & Grau, M. V. (n.d.).Publication year
1999Journal title
Public ChoiceVolume
99Issue
3Page(s)
327-345AbstractThis paper investigates the Immigration and Naturalization Service (INS) interior and border enforcement effort allocation choice following the enactment of IRCA in 1986. The INS increasingly allocated a disproportionate amount of resources along the border as a result of the new law. It is contended that this behavior is consistent with that of a public agency intent on maximizing its budget and not in accord with minimizing the undocumented population in the United States. The theory developed here is then used to evaluate proposals that could potentially reconcile the INS's objectives with those of the policy makers and the public.Occupational attainment and gender earnings differentials in Mexico
AbstractBrown, C. J., Pagán, J. A., & Rodríguez-Oreggia, E. (n.d.).Publication year
1999Journal title
Industrial and Labor Relations ReviewVolume
53Issue
1Page(s)
123-135AbstractWomen earned about 20.8% less than men in Mexico in 1987, a difference that increased to 22.0% by 1993. Using 1987-93 data from Mexico's National Urban Employment Survey, the authors study the role of occupational attainment in this wage differential. Most of the 1987-93 increase in the gender log monthly earnings gap, they find, can be explained by relative changes in human capital endowments; wage coefficient changes would have slightly reduced the gap, all else equal. The increasing male-female earnings differential was tempered by a substantial decline in gender differences in occupational attainment from 1987 to 1993. Most of the male-female differences in earnings in both 1987 and 1993 can be explained by differences in rewards to individual endowments rather than gender differences in endowments.Changes in employment status across demographic groups during the 1990-1991 recession
AbstractBrown, C. J., & Pagán, J. A. (n.d.).Publication year
1998Journal title
Applied EconomicsVolume
30Issue
12Page(s)
1571-1583AbstractThis study analyses the relative impact of the 1990-91 recession on the employment status of Mexican-American, other Hispanic, and non-Hispanic black and white workers in the US. Recession-induced job losses and changes in shares of parttime and fulltime employment significantly varied across demographic groups and gender. From 1989 to 1991 males experienced a larger decline than females in the relative shares of fulltime employment with Mexican-American and other Hispanic females actually increasing their shares. Utilizing 1990 and 1992 CPS data, we estimate bivariate probit models of employment and fulltime/parttime employment status for each group. These employment and work status probabilities are then decomposed to analyse the factors that led to the changes. Our study suggests that the 1990-91 recession-induced labour market changes had the most detrimental impact on black male and non-Hispanic white female workers. As such, public policies implemented to mitigate the impact of economic downturns should take into account the differential impact of economic recessions on demographic groups.Employer sanctions on hiring illegal labor: An experimental analysis of firm compliance
AbstractPagán, J. A. (n.d.).Publication year
1998Journal title
Journal of Economic Behavior and OrganizationVolume
34Issue
1Page(s)
87-100AbstractThe employer sanctions provision of the 1986 Immigration Reform and Control Act penalizes employers who knowingly hire unauthorized workers. Under IRCA, employers are subject to civil and/or criminal penalties; however, given the widespread availability of counterfeit documentation, in some cases it becomes difficult to discern the employment eligibility status of some workers. Using experimental methods, this study provides some evidence that marginal increases in employer compliance rates are significantly higher when employers have perfect information on the employment eligibility status of its potential workers than when they do not. The experimental results suggest that increases in government spending for employer sanctions enforcement may be more effective if the informational asymmetry faced by employers is solved first. A possible solution to this problem may lie in the adoption of tamper-proof documentation such as a national identification card.On the regional variability of minority/non-minority wage differentials
AbstractDávila, A., & Pagán, J. A. (n.d.).Publication year
1998Journal title
Applied Economics LettersVolume
5Issue
2Page(s)
93-95AbstractThis paper assesses whether regional variability in the minority/non-minority wage gap exists and if it depends on state-specific factors such as political conservatism, antidiscriminatory policies, and the 'visibility' of minorities. We find an extreme variability in the minority/non-minority wage differential across states and that this gap narrows as minorities achieve a 'threshold' level which allows them to exert political and economic pressures on majority employers.The impact of IRCA on the job opportunities and earnings of Mexican-American and Hispanic-American workers
AbstractDavila, A., Pagan, J. A., & Grau, M. V. (n.d.).Publication year
1998Journal title
International Migration ReviewVolume
32Issue
1Page(s)
79-95AbstractThis article studies the earnings gap between Mexican, Hispanic and non-Hispanic white male workers resulting from changes in both the wage structure and immigration laws that occurred during the 1980s. Our results suggest that Mexican and Hispanic workers were adversely affected by these two changes. Using data from the 1980 and 1990 One Percent Public Use Microdata samples, we show that these 'at-risk' workers minimized the negative impact of the increases in the returns to skill by gaining in the non-Hispanic white residual wage distribution. We conclude that at-risk workers increased their work effort to lessen the effects of Act-induced employment losses. Using 1983-1992 data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth and EEOC data for this period, we provide support for this contention.Obesity, occupational attainment, and earnings
AbstractPagán, J. A., & Dávila, A. (n.d.).Publication year
1997Journal title
Social Science QuarterlyVolume
78Issue
3Page(s)
756-770AbstractObjective. This study contributes to the study of the relationship between obesity, occupational attainment, and earnings. Methods. Using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY), we utilize a multinomial logit specification to investigate the occupational selection of obese individuals. We then estimate earnings functions that account for the occupational attainment of the overweight. Results. We find that women pay a penalty for being obese, but overweight males, via occupational mobility, sort themselves into jobs to offset this penalty. Conclusions. Weight-related occupational sorting of males may be the outcome of the low barriers they face when moving across occupations. The occupational segregation found for obese women, however, may be mostly rooted in labor market discrimination.The effect of selective INS monitoring strategies on the industrial employment choice and earnings of recent immigrants
AbstractDávila, A., & Pagán, J. A. (n.d.).Publication year
1997Journal title
Economic InquiryVolume
35Issue
1Page(s)
138-150AbstractOne effect of 1986's immigration reform was to make INS inspection of farms more costly relative to other industries. In response, we suggest, the INS refocused its enforcement efforts toward industries with a higher concentration of illegals per establishment, especially manufacturing. We test this hypotheses and model the effects of a selective monitoring strategy on the employment choice and wages of illegal workers. We find evidence of selective monitoring by the INS and that this policy has redistributed illegal workers from closely to weakly monitored industries. Specifically, we find a shift from the higher-paying manufacturing sector to the agricultural.The role of occupational attainment, labor market structure, and earnings inequality on the relative earnings of Mexican Americans: 1986-1992
AbstractPagán, J. A., & Cárdenas, G. (n.d.).Publication year
1997Journal title
Hispanic Journal of Behavioral SciencesVolume
19Issue
3Page(s)
243-267AbstractThis article analyzes how the 1990-1991 recession and recent changes in U.S. immigration laws may have affected the employment and earnings of Mexican Americans. Using data from the 1986 and 1992 waves of the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (n = 2,091), the authors attempt to explain the decline in real earnings experienced by Mexican Americans during this period. The relative earnings of Mexican American males (females) fell from 92.41% (77.67%) in 1986 to 82.54% (74.71%) in 1992. Although Mexican Americans seem to be relatively concentrated in low-paying occupations, recent changes in the U.S. wage structure may have worked to offset the observed decrease in relative earnings.Uncertainty and human capital accumulation along the U.S./Mexico Border
LeMaster, J., & Pagan, J. (n.d.).Publication year
1997Journal title
Ensayos (Center for Economic Research, Department of Economics, Universidad Autónoma de Nuevo León)Volume
16Issue
2La estructura ocupacional y la diferencia salarial entre el hombre y la mujer en Mexico
Pagan, J., Rodríguez Oreggia Y. Román E., & Brown, C. (n.d.).Publication year
1996Journal title
Entorno EconómicoOn-the-job training, immigration reform, and the true wages of native male workers
AbstractPagán, J. A., & Dávila, A. (n.d.).Publication year
1996Journal title
Industrial RelationsVolume
35Issue
1Page(s)
45-58AbstractThis study measures the Immigration Reform and Control Act's (IRCA) impact on the "true" earnings of native workers. True earnings include observed wages and compensation received in the form of on-the-job training (OJT). Using 1983-1992 NLSY data, we present evidence suggesting IRCA reduced the true wages of male natives most likely to be mistaken as unauthorized. Our findings suggest that Mexican Americans suffered the largest decline in post-IRCA OJT. It appears then that antidiscrimination policies following recent immigration reform have not fully protected some U.S. natives against unintended IRCA-related employment discrimination.The Impact of the 1990-1991 recession on the employment status of Puerto Rican men and women in the U.S.
Brown, C., & Pagan, J. (n.d.).Publication year
1996Journal title
Ceteris Paribus (Revista de Investigaciones Socio-Económicas, Universidad de Puerto Rico)Volume
6Issue
2Page(s)
69-84Explaining the effects of changes in labor market structure on the relative wages of Puerto Rican workers: 1982-1992
Pagan, J. (n.d.).Publication year
1995Journal title
Ceteris Paribus (Revista de Investigaciones Socio-Económicas, Universidad de Puerto Rico)Volume
5Issue
2Page(s)
61-73