This event is presented by the Department of Biostatistics
PRESENTER: Loni Philip Tabb, PhD Associate Professor of Epidemiology and Biostatistics Drexel University Dornsife School of Public Health
ABSTRACT: On April 30, 2020, there were a total of 1,059,904 coronavirus (COVID-19) related cases across the entire United States (US), with 62,255 associated deaths. In New York state alone, there were 304,372 cases and 23,587 deaths – accounting for almost one third of the cases and almost 40% of the associated fatalities nationwide at that time. On May 1st, various states across the US began to reopen amid this global pandemic, with substantial variation in the process of reopening; and, as of September 1, 2020, there were over 6 million confirmed cases and over 185,000 related deaths. The objective of this study was to describe the geographic patterning of coronavirus cases and deaths in the United States as of April 30, 2020, and to estimate the associated racial/ethnic inequities. Descriptive statistics and choropleth maps were used to graphically display and measure the patterning of coronavirus cases and deaths across all US counties (N = 3139) with and without counties in New York (N = 62), as a special case. We fit spatially varying zero inflated negative binomial regression models to estimate potential racial/ethnic inequities in coronavirus cases and deaths. Choropleth maps of US counties and New York counties show significant clusters of coronavirus cases and deaths. Counties with higher percentages of Black residents in both the US and New York alone had 56% and 41%, respectively, more coronavirus cases. In New York, counties with more Hispanic residents had a nearly 3-fold increased risk of coronavirus cases. Densely populated counties in New York had significantly more deaths than less densely populated counties. Our findings highlight the disproportionate burden of COVID-19 on communities of color, particularly in counties with increasing percentages of Blacks and Hispanics. Given this evidence, local, state, and national policymakers can further identify which counties and populations will need additional access to resources that include, but are not limited to, testing, treatment, education, and support in the recommended guidelines for social distancing practices.