Don Des Jarlais
Don Des Jarlais
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Professor of Epidemiology
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Professional overview
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Dr. Don Des Jarlais is a leader in the fields of AIDS and injecting drug use, and has published extensively on these topics including articles in The New England Journal of Medicine, JAMA, Science, and Nature.
He is active in international research, having collaborated on studies in many different countries. He serves as a consultant to various institutions, including the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the National Institute of Drug Abuse, the National Academy of Sciences, and the World Health Organization.
Dr. Des Jarlais’ research has received numerous awards, including a New York State Department of Health Commissioner’s award for promoting the health of persons who use drugs. He formerly served as avcommissioner for the National Commission on AIDS; as a core group member of the UNAIDS Reference Group on HIV and Injecting Drug Use; and as a member of the President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) Scientific Advisory Board.
Dr. Des Jarlais is also an adjunct faculty of psychiatry and preventive medicine at Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, and guest investigator at Rockefeller University in New York.
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Education
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BA, Behavioral Science, Rice University, Houston, TXPhD, Social Psychology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI
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Areas of research and study
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EpidemiologyHIV/AIDSPsychology
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Publications
Publications
High prevalence and incidence of HSV-2 among people who inject drugs in Hai Phong, Vietnam, and risk factors associated with seroconversion
Oregon’s Emerging Psilocybin Services Workforce: A Survey of the First Legal Psilocybin Facilitators and Their Training Programs
“New Normal:” Opportunities and Challenges Faced by Syringe Service Programs Following the Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic
AbstractAustin, E. J., Briggs, E. S., Corcorran, M. A., Chen, J., Cotta, N., Behrends, C. N., Prohaska, S. M., LaKosky, P. A., Kapadia, S. N., Perlman, D. C., Schackman, B. R., Des Jarlais, D. C., Williams, E. C., & Glick, S. N. (n.d.).Publication year
2025Journal title
Substance Use and MisuseVolume
60Issue
5Page(s)
669-676AbstractBackground: Syringe services programs (SSPs) provide critical evidence-based public health services that decrease harms from drug use for people who use drugs (PWUD). Many SSPs have experienced significant and evolving COVID-19-related disruptions. We aimed to characterize the impacts of COVID-19 on SSP operations in the United States approximately two years into the pandemic. Methods: Participating sites, selected from a national sample of SSPs, completed a semi-structured interview via teleconference and brief electronic survey evaluating the impacts of COVID-19 on program operations. Data collection explored program financing, service delivery approaches, and perspectives on staff morale two years into the pandemic. Interview data were analyzed qualitatively using Rapid Assessment Process. Survey data were analyzed using descriptive statistics and triangulated with qualitative findings. Results: Twenty-five SSPs completed the interview and survey between April–June 2022. Triangulation of qualitative and quantitative data characterized the dynamic ways that demand for SSP services has evolved throughout the pandemic, and how approaches to care delivery have increased in flexibility and participant-centeredness. However, SSPs expressed worry about longer-term barriers to program participant and staff engagement, and a mismatch between available programmatic resources and the “new normal” of service delivery needs. Conclusion: The COVID-19 pandemic has had lasting impacts on multiple facets of syringe service delivery. While SSPs consistently meet barriers with ingenuity, greater programmatic and staff support is needed to ensure SSPs can continue to meet the changing public health needs for PWUD.Assessing COVID-19 pandemic impacts on the health of PWID using a novel data sharing model
AbstractBradley, H., Luisi, N., Carter, A., Pigott, T. D., Abramovitz, D., Allen, S. T., Asher, A., Austin, C., Bartholomew, T. S., Baum, M., Board, A., Boodram, B., Borquez, A., Brookmeyer, K. A., Buchacz, K., Burnett, J., Cooper, H. L., Crepaz, N., Debeck, K., … Des Jarlais, D. C. (n.d.).Publication year
2024Journal title
AIDSAbstractObjective: Using an innovative data sharing model, we assessed the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on the health of people who inject drugs (PWID). Design: The PWID Data Collaborative was established in 2021 to promote data sharing across PWID studies in North America. Contributing studies submitted aggregate data on 23 standardized indicators during four time periods: pre-pandemic (Mar 2019 – Feb 2020), early-pandemic (Mar 2020 – Feb 2021), mid-pandemic (Mar 2021 - Feb 2022), and late pandemic (Mar 2022 - Feb 2023). Methods: We present study-specific and meta-analyzed estimates for the percentage of PWID who took medications for opioid use disorder, received substance use treatment, shared syringes or injection equipment, had a mental health condition, had been incarcerated, or had experienced houselessness. To examine change over time across indicators, we fit a random effects meta-regression model to prevalence estimates using time as a moderator. Results: Thirteen studies contributed estimates to the Data Collaborative on these indicators, representing 6,213 PWID interviews. We observed minimal change across prevalence of the six indicators between the pre-pandemic (March 2019 – February 2020) and three subsequent time periods, overall or within individual studies. Considerable heterogeneity was observed across study- and time-specific estimates. Conclusions: Limited pandemic-related change observed in indicators of PWID health is likely a result of policy and supportive service-related changes and may also reflect resilience among service providers and PWID themselves. The Data Collaborative is an unprecedented data sharing model with potential to greatly improve the quality and timeliness of data on the health of PWID.Burden of disease scenarios by state in the USA, 2022–50: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
Failed generating bibliography.AbstractPublication year
2024Journal title
The LancetVolume
404Issue
10469Page(s)
2341-2370AbstractBackground: The capacity to anticipate future health issues is important for both policy makers and practitioners in the USA, as such insights can facilitate effective planning, investment, and implementation strategies. Forecasting trends in disease and injury burden is not only crucial for policy makers but also garners substantial interest from the general populace and leads to a better-informed public. Through the integration of new data sources, the refinement of methodologies, and the inclusion of additional causes, we have improved our previous forecasting efforts within the scope of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) to produce forecasts at the state and national levels for the USA under various possible scenarios. Methods: We developed a comprehensive framework for forecasting life expectancy, healthy life expectancy (HALE), cause-specific mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to 359 causes of disease and injury burden from 2022 to 2050 for the USA and all 50 states and Washington, DC. Using the GBD 2021 Future Health Scenarios modelling framework, we forecasted drivers of disease, demographic drivers, risk factors, temperature and particulate matter, mortality and years of life lost (YLL), population, and non-fatal burden. In addition to a reference scenario (representing the most probable future trajectory), we explored various future scenarios and their potential impacts over the next several decades on human health. These alternative scenarios comprised four risk elimination scenarios (including safer environment, improved behavioural and metabolic risks, improved childhood nutrition and vaccination, and a combined scenario) and three USA-specific scenarios based on risk exposure or attributable burden in the best-performing US states (improved high adult BMI and high fasting plasma glucose [FPG], improved smoking, and improved drug use [encompassing opioids, cocaine, amphetamine, and others]). Findings: Life expectancy in the USA is projected to increase from 78·3 years (95% uncertainty interval 78·1–78·5) in 2022 to 79·9 years (79·5–80·2) in 2035, and to 80·4 years (79·8–81·0) in 2050 for all sexes combined. This increase is forecasted to be modest compared with that in other countries around the world, resulting in the USA declining in global rank over the 2022–50 forecasted period among the 204 countries and territories in GBD, from 49th to 66th. There is projected to be a decline in female life expectancy in West Virginia between 1990 and 2050, and little change in Arkansas and Oklahoma. Additionally, after 2023, we projected almost no change in female life expectancy in many states, notably in Oklahoma, South Dakota, Utah, Iowa, Maine, and Wisconsin. Female HALE is projected to decline between 1990 and 2050 in 20 states and to remain unchanged in three others. Drug use disorders and low back pain are projected to be the leading Level 3 causes of age-standardised DALYs in 2050. The age-standardised DALY rate due to drug use disorders is projected to increase considerably between 2022 and 2050 (19·5% [6·9–34·1]). Our combined risk elimination scenario shows that the USA could gain 3·8 additional years (3·6–4·0) of life expectancy and 4·1 additional years (3·9–4·3) of HALE in 2050 versus the reference scenario. Using our USA-specific scenarios, we forecasted that the USA could gain 0·4 additional years (0·3–0·6) of life expectancy and 0·6 additional years (0·5–0·8) of HALE in 2050 under the improved drug use scenario relative to the reference scenario. Life expectancy and HALE are likewise projected to be 0·4–0·5 years higher in 2050 under the improved adult BMI and FPG and improved smoking scenarios compared with the reference scenario. However, the increases in these scenarios would not substantially improve the USA's global ranking in 2050 (from 66th of 204 in life expectancy in the reference scenario to 63rd–64th in each of the three USA-specific scenarios), indicating that the USA's best-performing states are still lagging behind other countries in their rank throughout the forecasted period. Regardless, an estimated 12·4 million (11·3–13·5) deaths could be averted between 2022 and 2050 if the USA were to follow the combined scenario trajectory rather than the reference scenario. There would also be 1·4 million (0·7–2·2) fewer deaths over the 28-year forecasted period with improved adult BMI and FPG, 2·1 million (1·3–2·9) fewer deaths with improved exposure to smoking, and 1·2 million (0·9–1·5) fewer deaths with lower rates of drug use deaths. Interpretation: Our findings highlight the alarming trajectory of health challenges in the USA, which, if left unaddressed, could lead to a reversal of the health progress made over the past three decades for some US states and a decline in global health standing for all states. The evidence from our alternative scenarios along with other published studies suggests that through collaborative, evidence-based strategies, there are opportunities to change the trajectory of health outcomes in the USA, such as by investing in scientific innovation, health-care access, preventive health care, risk exposure reduction, and education. Our forecasts clearly show that the time to act is now, as the future of the country's health and wellbeing—as well as its prosperity and leadership position in science and innovation—are at stake. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.COVID-19 vaccination uptake and determinants of booster vaccination among persons who inject drugs in New York City
Facilitators and barriers to monitoring and evaluation at syringe service programs
AbstractHealy, E., Means, A. R., Knudtson, K., Frank, N., Juarez, A., Prohaska, S., McKnight, C., Des Jarlais, D., Asher, A., & Glick, S. N. (n.d.).Publication year
2024Journal title
Harm Reduction JournalVolume
21Issue
1AbstractBackground: Syringe services programs (SSPs) provide harm reduction supplies and services to people who use drugs and are often required by funders or partners to collect data from program participants. SSPs can use these data during monitoring and evaluation (M&E) to inform programmatic decision making, however little is known about facilitators and barriers to collecting and using data at SSPs. Methods: Using the Consolidated Framework for Implementation Research (CFIR), we conducted 12 key informant interviews with SSP staff to describe the overall landscape of data systems at SSPs, understand facilitators and barriers to data collection and use at SSPs, and generate recommendations for best practices for data collection at SSPs. We used 30 CFIR constructs to develop individual interview guides, guide data analysis, and interpret study findings. Results: Four main themes emerged from our analysis: SSP M&E systems are primarily designed to be responsive to perceived SSP client needs and preferences; SSP staffing capacity influences the likelihood of modifying M&E systems; external funding frequently forces changes to M&E systems; and strong M&E systems are often a necessary precursor for accessing funding. Conclusions: Our findings highlight that SSPs are not resistant to data collection and M&E, but face substantial barriers to implementation, including lack of funding and disjointed data reporting requirements. There is a need to expand M&E-focused funding opportunities, harmonize quantitative indicators collected across funders, and minimize data collection to essential data points for SSPs.Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
Failed generating bibliography.AbstractPublication year
2024Journal title
The LancetVolume
403Issue
10440Page(s)
1989-2056AbstractBackground: Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period. Methods: 22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution. Findings: Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5–65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020–21; 5·1% [0·9–9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98–5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50–6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126–137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7–17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8–24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7–51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9–72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0–2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67–8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4–52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0–44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations. Interpretation: Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
Failed generating bibliography.AbstractPublication year
2024Journal title
The LancetVolume
403Issue
10440Page(s)
2100-2132AbstractBackground: Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations. Methods: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model—a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates—with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality—which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds. Findings: The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2–100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1–290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1–211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4–48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3–37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7–9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles. Interpretation: Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.Global, regional, and national burden of HIV/AIDS, 1990–2021, and forecasts to 2050, for 204 countries and territories: the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
AbstractCarter, A., Zhang, M., Tram, K. H., Walters, M. K., Jahagirdar, D., Brewer, E. D., Novotney, A., Lasher, D., Mpolya, E. A., Vongpradith, A., Ma, J., Verma, M., Frank, T. D., He, J., Byrne, S., Lin, C., Dominguez, R. M. V., Pease, S. A., Comfort, H., … Kyu, H. (n.d.).Publication year
2024Journal title
The Lancet HIVVolume
11Issue
12Page(s)
e807-e822AbstractBackground: As set out in Sustainable Development Goal 3.3, the target date for ending the HIV epidemic as a public health threat is 2030. Therefore, there is a crucial need to evaluate current epidemiological trends and monitor global progress towards HIV incidence and mortality reduction goals. In this analysis, we assess the current burden of HIV in 204 countries and territories and forecast HIV incidence, prevalence, and mortality up to 2050 to allow countries to plan for a sustained response with an increasing number of people living with HIV globally. Methods: We used the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 analytical framework to compute age-sex-specific HIV mortality, incidence, and prevalence estimates for 204 countries and territories (1990–2021). We aimed to analyse all available data sources, including data on the provision of HIV programmes reported to UNAIDS, published literature on mortality among people on antiretroviral therapy (ART) identified by a systematic review, household surveys, sentinel surveillance antenatal care clinic data, vital registration data, and country-level case report data. We calibrated a mechanistic simulation of HIV infection and natural history to available data to estimate HIV burden from 1990 to 2021 and generated forecasts to 2050 through projection of all simulation inputs into the future. Historical outcomes (1990–2021) were simulated at the 1000-draw level to support propagation of uncertainty and reporting of uncertainty intervals (UIs). Our approach to forecasting utilised the transmission rate as the basis for projection, along with new rate-of-change projections of ART coverage. Additionally, we introduced two new metrics to our reporting: prevalence of unsuppressed viraemia (PUV), which represents the proportion of the population without a suppressed level of HIV (viral load <1000 copies per mL), and period lifetime probability of HIV acquisition, which quantifies the hypothetical probability of acquiring HIV for a synthetic cohort, a simulated population that is aged from birth to death through the set of age-specific incidence rates of a given time period. Findings: Global new HIV infections decreased by 21·9% (95% UI 13·1–28·8) between 2010 and 2021, from 2·11 million (2·02–2·25) in 2010 to 1·65 million (1·48–1·82) in 2021. HIV-related deaths decreased by 39·7% (33·7–44·5), from 1·19 million (1·07–1·37) in 2010 to 718 000 (669 000–785 000) in 2021. The largest declines in both HIV incidence and mortality were in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia. However, super-regions including central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia, and north Africa and the Middle East experienced increasing HIV incidence and mortality rates. The number of people living with HIV reached 40·0 million (38·0–42·4) in 2021, an increase from 29·5 million (28·1–31·0) in 2010. The lifetime probability of HIV acquisition remains highest in the sub-Saharan Africa super-region, where it declined from its 1995 peak of 21·8% (20·1–24·2) to 8·7% (7·5–10·7) in 2021. Four of the seven GBD super-regions had a lifetime probability of less than 1% in 2021. In 2021, sub-Saharan Africa had the highest PUV of 999·9 (857·4–1154·2) per 100 000 population, but this was a 64·5% (58·8–69·4) reduction in PUV from 2003 to 2021. In the same period, PUV increased in central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia by 116·1% (8·0–218·2). Our forecasts predict a continued global decline in HIV incidence and mortality, with the number of people living with HIV peaking at 44·4 million (40·7–49·8) by 2039, followed by a gradual decrease. In 2025, we projected 1·43 million (1·29–1·59) new HIV infections and 615 000 (567 000–680 000) HIV-related deaths, suggesting that the interim 2025 targets for reducing these figures are unlikely to be achieved. Furthermore, our forecasted results indicate that few countries will meet the 2030 target for reducing HIV incidence and HIV-related deaths by 90% from 2010 levels. Interpretation: Our forecasts indicate that continuation of current levels of HIV control are not likely to attain ambitious incidence and mortality reduction targets by 2030, and more than 40 million people globally will continue to require lifelong ART for decades into the future. The global community will need to show sustained and substantive efforts to make the progress needed to reach and sustain the end of AIDS as a public threat. Funding: The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.Hepatitis C treatment outcomes among people who inject drugs experiencing unstable versus stable housing: Systematic review and meta-analysis
Mortality among people who inject drugs - the interwoven roles of fentanyl and HIV: a community-based cohort study
AbstractSalekešin, M., Vorobjov, S., Des Jarlais, D., & Uusküla, A. (n.d.).Publication year
2024Journal title
European Journal of Public HealthVolume
34Issue
2Page(s)
329-334AbstractBackground: Excess all-cause mortality is a key indicator for assessing direct and indirect consequences of injection drug use and data are warranted to delineate sub-populations within people who inject drugs at higher risk of death. Our aim was to examine mortality and factors associated with mortality among people who inject drugs in Estonia. Methods: Retrospective cohort study using data from people who inject drugs recruited in the community with linkage to death records. Standardized mortality ratios were used to compare the cohort mortality to the general population and potential predictors of death were examined through survival analysis (Cox regression). The cohort include a total of 1399 people who inject drugs recruited for cross-sectional surveys using respondent driven sampling between 2013 and 2018 in Estonia. A cohort with follow-up through 2019 was formed with linkage to national causes of death registry. Results: Among 1399 participants with 4684 person-years of followup, 10% were deceased by 2019. The all-cause mortality rate in the cohort was 28.9 per 1000 person-years (95% confidence interval 25.3-35.3). Being HIV positive, injecting mainly opioids (fentanyl), living in the capital region and the main source of income other than work were associated with greater mortality risk. Conclusions: While low-threshold services have been available for a long time for people who inject drugs, there is still a need to widen the availability and integration of services, particularly the integration of HIV and opioid treatment.Utility of self-report antiretroviral adherence for predicting HIV viral load among persons who inject drugs in Hai Phong Vietnam: assessing differences by methamphetamine use
“I Didn’t Know What They’re Gonna Do to Me: So That’s Why I Said No”: Why Youth Decline HIV Testing in Emergency Departments
A community-based strategy to eliminate hepatitis C among people who inject drugs in Vietnam
Failed generating bibliography.AbstractPublication year
2023Journal title
The Lancet Regional Health - Western PacificVolume
37AbstractBackground: Towards hepatitis C elimination among people who inject drugs (PWID), we assessed the effectiveness of a strategy consisting of a community-based respondent-driven sampling (RDS) as wide screening, a simplified and integrated hospital-based care, and prevention of reinfection supported by community-based organisations (CBO), in Hai Phong, Vietnam. Methods: Adults who injected heroin were enrolled in a RDS survey implemented in two CBO premises. Rapid HIV and HCV tests were done on site, and blood was taken for HCV RNA testing. Those with detectable HCV RNA were referred with CBO support to three public hospitals for 12-week sofosbuvir/daclatasvir, plus ribavirin for patients with cirrhosis. Participants were followed-up 12 weeks post-treatment (SVR12) and 48 weeks after enrolment. The primary endpoint was the rate of undetectable HCV RNA participants at 48 weeks. Findings: Among the 1444 RDS survey participants, 875 had hepatitis C. Their median age was 41 years (IQR 36–47), 96% were males, 36% were HIV-coinfected. Overall, 686 (78.4%) started sofosbuvir/daclatasvirs, and 629 of the 647 (97.2%) patients tested at SVR12 were cured. At week 48 (581/608) 95.6% had undetectable HCV RNA, representing 66.4% of all PWID identified with hepatitis C. The reinfection rate after SVR12 was 4/100 person-years (95% CI: 2–7). Interpretation: Our strategy, involving CBO and addressing all steps from wide HCV screening to prevention of reinfection, stands as a promising approach to eliminate HCV among PWID in low and middle-income countries. Funding: France ANRS|MIE ( #ANRS12380). The RDS survey was implemented with grants from the NIDA ( #R01DA041978) and ANRS|MIE ( #ANRS12353).Adapted “Break the Cycle for Avant Garde” intervention to reduce injection assisting and promoting behaviours in people who inject drugs in Tallinn, Estonia: A pre- post trial
Association between recent methamphetamine use, antiretroviral therapy and HIV viral load; a mediation analysis from a cohort of HIV positive persons who inject drugs in Hai Phong, Vietnam
Awareness and willingness to use HIV self-testing among people who inject drugs in Iran
COVID-19 stigmatization after the development of effective vaccines: Vaccination behavior, attitudes, and news sources
AbstractDes Jarlais, D. C., Lieff, S., Grivel, M., Meltzer, G., Choi, J., Weng, C. A., Feelemyer, J. P., Chang, V. W., & Yang, L. (n.d.).Publication year
2023Journal title
PloS oneVolume
18Issue
4AbstractObjective To compare COVID-19 stigmatization at two pandemic time points (1) August 2020—during lockdowns and prior to vaccine rollout, and (2) May 2021—during vaccine rollout, when approximately half of U.S. adults were vaccinated. Methods Comparison of COVID19-related stigmatization and associated factors in two national internet surveys conducted in August 2020 (N = 517) and May 2021 (N = 812). Factors associated with endorsing stigmatization were identified using regression analysis. The main outcomes included endorsement of stigmatization and behavioral restrictions towards persons with COVID-19 and towards persons of Chinese descent. A previously developed “stigmatizing attitudes and behavioral restrictions” scale was adapted to measure the intersection of negative attitudes toward COVID-19 disease and negative attitudes toward persons of Chinese descent. Results COVID-19 related stigmatization declined significantly from August 2020 to May 2021. Many factors were associated with stigmatizing in both surveys: full time employment, Black race, Hispanic ethnicity, worry about contracting COVID-19, probable depression, and Fox News and social media as sources of information (all positively associated), and self-assessed knowledge about COVID-19, contact with Chinese individuals, and publicly funded news as sources (all negatively associated). Positive attitudes toward vaccination were associated with stigmatization. Conclusions COVID-19 related stigmatization reduced substantially over these two points in the pandemic, with many continuities in the factors associated with stigmatizing. Despite the reduction in stigmatizing, however, some stigmatizing attitudes for both COVID-19 and Chinese individuals remained.COVID-19 vaccination and HIV transmission among persons who inject drugs during the first two years of the COVID-19 pandemic in New York City
Field Testing the “Avoid the Needle” Intervention for Persons at Risk for Transitioning to Injecting Drug Use in Tallinn, Estonia and New York City, USA
AbstractJarlais, D. C., McKnight, C., Weng, C. A., Feelemyer, J., Tross, S., Raag, M., Org, G., Talu, A., & Uuskula, A. (n.d.).Publication year
2023Journal title
AIDS and BehaviorVolume
27Issue
11Page(s)
3767-3779AbstractThis study aimed to field tested the “Avoid the Needle” (AtN) intervention to reduce transitions from non-injecting to injecting drug use in two different epidemiological settings. Respondent driven sampling was used to recruit current non-injecting drug users (NIDUs) in Tallinn, Estonia in 2018-19 and in New York City (NYC) in 2019-20. Both persons who had never injected and persons who had previously injected but not in the last 6 months were eligible; a structured interview was administered, a blood sample collected, and the intervention administered by trained interventionists. We recruited 19 non-injectors from Tallinn and 140 from NYC. Participants in Tallinn were younger and had begun using drugs at earlier ages than participants in NYC. The primary drugs used in Tallinn were amphetamine, fentanyl, and opioid analgesics, while in NYC they were heroin, cocaine, speedball, and fentanyl. Six-month follow-up data were obtained from 95% of participants in Tallinn. The study was interrupted by COVID-19 lockdown in NYC, but follow-up data were obtained from 59% of participants. There were minimal transitions to injecting: 1/18 in Tallinn and 0/83 in NYC. There were significant declines in the frequencies of using readily injectable drugs (fentanyl, amphetamine, heroin, cocaine) from baseline to follow-up in both sites (Cochran-Armitage tests for trend, χ2 = 21.3, p < 0.001 for New York City; and χ2 = 3.9, p = 0.048 for Tallinn). Reducing transitions into injecting is a potentially very important method for reducing HIV transmission and other harms of drug use. Further investigation and implementation of AtN type interventions is warranted.Gender Differences in HIV, HCV risk and Prevention Needs Among People who Inject drug in Vietnam
Gender, homelessness, hospitalization and methamphetamine use fuel depression among people who inject drugs: implications for innovative prevention and care strategies
Global epidemiology of abortion among female sex workers: a systematic review, meta-analysis, and meta-regression
HCV RNA Quantification by a Domestic Commercial Assay: A Case Study among People Who Inject Drugs in Vietnam