Don Des Jarlais
Don Des Jarlais
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Professor of Epidemiology
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Professional overview
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Dr. Don Des Jarlais is a leader in the fields of AIDS and injecting drug use, and has published extensively on these topics including articles in The New England Journal of Medicine, JAMA, Science, and Nature.
He is active in international research, having collaborated on studies in many different countries. He serves as a consultant to various institutions, including the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the National Institute of Drug Abuse, the National Academy of Sciences, and the World Health Organization.
Dr. Des Jarlais’ research has received numerous awards, including a New York State Department of Health Commissioner’s award for promoting the health of persons who use drugs. He formerly served as avcommissioner for the National Commission on AIDS; as a core group member of the UNAIDS Reference Group on HIV and Injecting Drug Use; and as a member of the President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) Scientific Advisory Board.
Dr. Des Jarlais is also an adjunct faculty of psychiatry and preventive medicine at Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, and guest investigator at Rockefeller University in New York.
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Education
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BA, Behavioral Science, Rice University, Houston, TXPhD, Social Psychology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI
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Areas of research and study
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EpidemiologyHIV/AIDSPsychology
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Publications
Publications
Hepatitis C virus prevalence and estimated incidence among new injectors during the opioid epidemic in New York City, 2000–2017: Protective effects of non-injecting drug use
AbstractDes Jarlais, D. C., Arasteh, K., Feelemyer, J., McKnight, C., Barnes, D. M., Perlman, D. C., Uuskula, A., Cooper, H. L., & Tross, S. (n.d.).Publication year
2018Journal title
Drug and alcohol dependenceVolume
192Page(s)
74-79AbstractObjective: Assess hepatitis C virus (HCV) prevalence and incidence among person who began injecting drugs during the opioid epidemic in New York City (NYC) and identify possible new directions for reducing HCV infection among persons who inject drugs. Methods: 846 persons who began injecting drugs between 2000 and 2017 were recruited from persons entering Mount Sinai Beth Israel substance use treatment programs. A structured interview was administered and HCV antibody testing conducted. Protective effects of non-injecting drug use were examined among persons who “reversed transitioned” to non-injecting drug use and persons who used non-injected heroin in addition to injecting. Results: Participants were 79% male, 41% White, 15% African-American, 40% Latinx, with a mean age of 35. Of those who began injecting in 2000 or later, 97 persons (11%) “reverse transitioned” back to non-injecting drug use. Reverse transitioning was strongly associated with lower HCV seroprevalence (30% versus 47% among those who continued injecting, p < 0.005). Among those who continued injecting, HCV seropositivity was inversely associated with current non-injecting heroin use (AOR = 0.72, 95%CI 0.52-0.99). HCV incidence among persons continuing to inject was estimated as 13/100 person-years. HCV seropositive persons currently injecting cocaine were particularly likely to report behavior likely to transmit HCV. Conclusions: Similar to other locations in the US, NYC is experiencing high rates of HCV infection among persons who have begun injecting since 2000. New interventions that facilitate substitution of non-injecting for injecting drug use and that reduce transmission behavior among HCV seropositives may provide additional methods for reducing HCV transmission.Heterosexual male and female disparities in HIV infection at the end of an epidemic: HIV infection among persons who inject drugs in New York City, 2001–2005 and 2011–2015
AbstractDes Jarlais, D. C., McKnight, C., Feelemyer, J., Arasteh, K., Tross, S., Campbell, A. N., Cooper, H. L., & Perlman, D. C. (n.d.).Publication year
2018Journal title
Drug and alcohol dependenceVolume
185Page(s)
391-397AbstractBackground: We examined whether sex disparities (heterosexual male:female) in HIV infection continue to persist at the “end of the HIV epidemic” among persons who inject drugs (PWID) in New York City (NYC). An “end of the epidemic” was operationally defined as 1) prevalence of untreated HIV infection <5%, and 2) estimated HIV incidence <0.5/100 person-years. Methods: PWID were recruited from persons entering substance use treatment programs at Mount Sinai Beth Israel in 2001–2005 and 2011–2015. A structured interview was administered, and HIV and HSV-2 testing was conducted. Incidence was estimated using newly diagnosed cases of HIV. Disparity analyses compared prevalence of HIV, of untreated HIV, HIV risk behaviors, and estimated HIV incidence. Results: By 2011–2015, both heterosexual male and female PWID met the two criteria for an “end of the epidemic,” and there were no significant differences in the prevalence of untreated HIV infection. A large sex difference remained in estimated HIV incidence. In 2013–2015, estimated HIV incidence was 2.8/10,000 PY for males and 7.1/10,000 PY for females. Females had greater risk for HIV on several factors. Conclusion: While NYC has reached an “end of the epidemic” for both heterosexual male and female PWID, sex disparities persist, particularly differences in HIV incidence. Eliminating the sex disparities may require a greater focus on factors associated with sexual transmission.Increased Methamphetamine Use among Persons Who Inject Drugs in Hai Phong, Vietnam, and the Association with Injection and Sexual Risk Behaviors
Failed generating bibliography.AbstractPublication year
2018Journal title
Journal of Psychoactive DrugsVolume
50Issue
5Page(s)
382-389AbstractMethamphetamine use has increased significantly in Southeast Asia in the last 5–10 years, but there is little research on risk behaviors associated with the increase in this region. We evaluate injection and sexual risk behaviors associated with current methamphetamine use among heterosexual persons who inject drugs (PWID) in Hai Phong, Vietnam. We recruited 1336 PWID and assessed associations between methamphetamine use, injection and sexual risk behaviors, stratified by HIV serostatus. There were several statistically significant associations between methamphetamine use and sexual risk behaviors among HIV-positive PWID, but we did not find any associations between methamphetamine use and injection risk behaviors. Methamphetamine may increase the likelihood of PWID transmitting HIV to non-injecting primary sexual partners, as it can reduce ART adherence and can lead to weakening of the immune system and increased HIV viral loads. All participants were injecting heroin, and methamphetamine use may interfere with opiate use treatment. Public health efforts should focus on the large increase in methamphetamine use and the associated sexual risk behaviors. Emphasis on sexual risk behavior, particularly among those who are HIV-positive, in conjunction with continued monitoring of ART adherence and HIV viral loads, is critical.Measuring performance on the Healthcare Access and Quality Index for 195 countries and territories and selected subnational locations: A systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
Failed generating bibliography.AbstractPublication year
2018Journal title
The LancetVolume
391Issue
10136Page(s)
2236-2271AbstractBackground A key component of achieving universal health coverage is ensuring that all populations have access to quality health care. Examining where gains have occurred or progress has faltered across and within countries is crucial to guiding decisions and strategies for future improvement. We used the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) to assess personal health-care access and quality with the Healthcare Access and Quality (HAQ) Index for 195 countries and territories, as well as subnational locations in seven countries, from 1990 to 2016. Methods Drawing from established methods and updated estimates from GBD 2016, we used 32 causes from which death should not occur in the presence of effective care to approximate personal health-care access and quality by location and over time. To better isolate potential effects of personal health-care access and quality from underlying risk factor patterns, we risk-standardised cause-specific deaths due to non-cancers by location-year, replacing the local joint exposure of environmental and behavioural risks with the global level of exposure. Supported by the expansion of cancer registry data in GBD 2016, we used mortality-to-incidence ratios for cancers instead of risk-standardised death rates to provide a stronger signal of the effects of personal health care and access on cancer survival. We transformed each cause to a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the first percentile (worst) observed between 1990 and 2016, and 100 as the 99th percentile (best); we set these thresholds at the country level, and then applied them to subnational locations. We applied a principal components analysis to construct the HAQ Index using all scaled cause values, providing an overall score of 0-100 of personal health-care access and quality by location over time. We then compared HAQ Index levels and trends by quintiles on the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary measure of overall development. As derived from the broader GBD study and other data sources, we examined relationships between national HAQ Index scores and potential correlates of performance, such as total health spending per capita. Findings In 2016, HAQ Index performance spanned from a high of 97·1 (95% UI 95·8-98·1) in Iceland, followed by 96·6 (94·9-97·9) in Norway and 96·1 (94·5-97·3) in the Netherlands, to values as low as 18·6 (13·1-24·4) in the Central African Republic, 19·0 (14·3-23·7) in Somalia, and 23·4 (20·2-26·8) in Guinea-Bissau. The pace of progress achieved between 1990 and 2016 varied, with markedly faster improvements occurring between 2000 and 2016 for many countries in sub-Saharan Africa and southeast Asia, whereas several countries in Latin America and elsewhere saw progress stagnate after experiencing considerable advances in the HAQ Index between 1990 and 2000. Striking subnational disparities emerged in personal health-care access and quality, with China and India having particularly large gaps between locations with the highest and lowest scores in 2016. In China, performance ranged from 91·5 (89·1-93·6) in Beijing to 48·0 (43·4-53·2) in Tibet (a 43·5-point difference), while India saw a 30·8-point disparity, from 64·8 (59·6-68·8) in Goa to 34·0 (30·3-38·1) in Assam. Japan recorded the smallest range in subnational HAQ performance in 2016 (a 4·8-point difference), whereas differences between subnational locations with the highest and lowest HAQ Index values were more than two times as high for the USA and three times as high for England. State-level gaps in the HAQ Index in Mexico somewhat narrowed from 1990 to 2016 (from a 20·9-point to 17·0-point difference), whereas in Brazil, disparities slightly increased across states during this time (a 17·2-point to 20·4-point difference). Performance on the HAQ Index showed strong linkages to overall development, with high and high-middle SDI countries generally having higher scores and faster gains for non-communicable diseases. Nonetheless, countries across the development spectrum saw substantial gains in some key health service areas from 2000 to 2016, most notably vaccine-preventable diseases. Overall, national performance on the HAQ Index was positively associated with higher levels of total health spending per capita, as well as health systems inputs, but these relationships were quite heterogeneous, particularly among low-to-middle SDI countries. Interpretation GBD 2016 provides a more detailed understanding of past success and current challenges in improving personal health-care access and quality worldwide. Despite substantial gains since 2000, many low-SDI and middle- SDI countries face considerable challenges unless heightened policy action and investments focus on advancing access to and quality of health care across key health services, especially non-communicable diseases. Stagnating or minimal improvements experienced by several low-middle to high-middle SDI countries could reflect the complexities of re-orienting both primary and secondary health-care services beyond the more limited foci of the Millennium Development Goals. Alongside initiatives to strengthen public health programmes, the pursuit of universal health coverage hinges upon improving both access and quality worldwide, and thus requires adopting a more comprehensive view - and subsequent provision - of quality health care for all populations.Molecular investigation of HIV-1 cross-group transmissions during an outbreak among people who inject drugs (2011–2014) in Athens, Greece
AbstractParaskevis, D., Νikolopoulos G. K., Sypsa, V., Psichogiou, M., Pantavou, K., Kostaki, E., Karamitros, T., Paraskeva, D., Schneider, J., Malliori, M., Friedman, S. R., Des Jarlais, D. C., Daikos, G. L., & Hatzakis, A. (n.d.).Publication year
2018Journal title
Infection, Genetics and EvolutionVolume
62Page(s)
11-16AbstractNew diagnoses of HIV-1 infection among people who inject drugs (PWID) rocketed in Athens, Greece between 2011 and 2014 (HIV-1 outbreak). Our aim was to identify, during that period, potential cross-group transmissions between the within-Greece PWID and other risk or national groups using molecular methods. Sequences from 33 PWID were outside the PWID-outbreak networks in Greece (PWID-imported transmissions). Phylogenetic analyses on 28 of these sequences (subtypes A and B) showed that 11 subtype B infections originated from Greece, whereas 8 and 7 subtype A strains were from former Soviet Union countries (AFSU) and Greece, respectively. The putative source in half of the PWID-imported transmissions with Greek origin was an individual who acquired HIV via sexual contact. During four years of an HIV-1 outbreak among PWID in Athens, Greece, 33 individuals in this group (4.6% of all diagnoses with phylogenetic analyses) are likely to represent infections, sexually or injection-acquired, outside the within-Greece-PWID-outbreak networks. Combined molecular and traditional HIV surveillance to monitor introductions of new strains, and interventions that aim at reducing the rate of both injection and sexual risky practices are needed during drug injection-related HIV outbreaks.Neonatal, infant, and under-5 mortality and morbidity burden in the Eastern Mediterranean region: findings from the Global Burden of Disease 2015 study
Failed generating bibliography.AbstractPublication year
2018Journal title
International Journal of Public HealthVolume
63Page(s)
63-77AbstractObjectives: Although substantial reductions in under-5 mortality have been observed during the past 35 years, progress in the Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR) has been uneven. This paper provides an overview of child mortality and morbidity in the EMR based on the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study. Methods: We used GBD 2015 study results to explore under-5 mortality and morbidity in EMR countries. Results: In 2015, 755,844 (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 712,064–801,565) children under 5 died in the EMR. In the early neonatal category, deaths in the EMR decreased by 22.4%, compared to 42.4% globally. The rate of years of life lost per 100,000 population under 5 decreased 54.38% from 177,537 (173,812–181,463) in 1990 to 80,985 (76,308–85,876) in 2015; the rate of years lived with disability decreased by 0.57% in the EMR compared to 9.97% globally. Conclusions: Our findings call for accelerated action to decrease child morbidity and mortality in the EMR. Governments and organizations should coordinate efforts to address this burden. Political commitment is needed to ensure that child health receives the resources needed to end preventable deaths.Options for reducing HIV transmission related to the dead space in needles and syringes
AbstractZule, W. A., Pande, P. G., Otiashvili, D., Bobashev, G. V., Friedman, S. R., Gyarmathy, V. A., & Des Jarlais, D. C. (n.d.).Publication year
2018Journal title
Harm Reduction JournalVolume
15Issue
1AbstractBackground: When shared by people who inject drugs, needles and syringes with different dead space may affect the probability of HIV and hepatitis C virus (HCV) transmission differently. Methods: We measured dead space in 56 needle and syringe combinations obtained from needle and syringe programs across 17 countries in Europe and Asia. We also calculated the amounts of blood and HIV that would remain in different combinations following injection and rinsing. Results: Syringe barrel capacities ranged from 0.5 to 20 mL. Needles ranged in length from 8 to 38 mm. The average dead space was 3 μL in low dead space syringes with permanently attached needles, 13 μL in high dead space syringes with low dead space needles, 45 μL in low dead space syringes with high dead space needles, and 99 μL in high dead space syringes with high dead space needles. Among low dead space designs, calculated volumes of blood and HIV viral burden were lowest for low dead space syringes with permanently attached needles and highest for low dead space syringes with high dead space needles. Conclusion: The dead space in different low dead space needle and syringe combinations varied substantially. To reduce HIV transmission related to syringe sharing, needle and syringe programs need to combine this knowledge with the needs of their clients.Perceived effectiveness of antiretroviral therapy, self-rated health and treatment adherence among HIV-positive people who inject drugs in Estonia
AbstractChan, P. Y., Joseph, M. A., Jarlais, D. C., & Uusküla, A. (n.d.).Publication year
2018Journal title
International Journal of STD and AIDSVolume
29Issue
1Page(s)
13-22AbstractThe HIV epidemic in Estonia affects the population of people who inject drugs (PWID) the most, but factors associated with adherence to antiretroviral therapy (ART) among PWID have not been thoroughly examined in Estonia, with particularly limited data regarding beliefs and attitudes of PWID. The objective of this study was to explore the association between ART adherence and individual beliefs, perceived effectiveness of ART, and self-rated health in particular, in this specific population. The study used baseline survey data from a longitudinal intervention study of HIV prevention among PWID in Estonia, in which 107 HIV-infected participants reported current use of ART. Current adherence was measured through the use of a visual analog scale. Approximately half (49%) of the participants reported optimal (≥95%) adherence. The vast majority (81%) believed in the effectiveness of ART. Less than a quarter of the participants (22%) rated their health as good or very good, and a half (52%) reported average health. Individual beliefs and self-reported health were not associated with ART adherence in both bivariate and multivariable analyses. Participants with problem drinking reported significant suboptimal adherence to ART (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] 0.42, 95% CI 0.19–0.97). Daily injection drug use was also associated with suboptimal adherence (AOR 0.34, 95% CI 0.13–0.91). Problem drinking has not been commonly reported as a factor of suboptimal ART adherence among PWID; further research would be useful to identify the pathways that might be involved.Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
Failed generating bibliography.AbstractPublication year
2018Journal title
The LancetVolume
392Issue
10159Page(s)
1995-2051AbstractBackground: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.Potential geographic "hotspots" for drug-injection related transmission of HIV and HCV and for initiation into injecting drug use in New York city, 2011-2015, with implications for the current opioid epidemic in the US
AbstractDes Jarlais, D. C., Cooper, H. L., Arasteh, K., Feelemyer, J., McKnight, C., & Ross, Z. (n.d.).Publication year
2018Journal title
PloS oneVolume
13Issue
3AbstractObjective We identified potential geographic “hotspots” for drug-injecting transmission of HIV and hepatitis C virus (HCV) among persons who inject drugs (PWID) in New York City. The HIV epidemic among PWID is currently in an “end of the epidemic” stage, while HCV is in a continuing, high prevalence (> 50%) stage. Methods We recruited 910 PWID entering Mount Sinai Beth Israel substance use treatment programs from 2011–2015. Structured interviews and HIV/ HCV testing were conducted. Residential ZIP codes were used as geographic units of analysis. Potential “hotspots” for HIV and HCV transmission were defined as 1) having relatively large numbers of PWID 2) having 2 or more HIV (or HCV) seropositive PWID reporting transmission risk—passing on used syringes to others, and 3) having 2 or more HIV (or HCV) seronegative PWID reporting acquisition risk—injecting with previously used needles/syringes. Hotspots for injecting drug use initiation were defined as ZIP codes with 5 or more persons who began injecting within the previous 6 years. Results Among PWID, 96% injected heroin, 81% male, 34% White, 15% African-American, 47% Latinx, mean age 40 (SD = 10), 7% HIV seropositive, 62% HCV seropositive. Participants resided in 234 ZIP codes. No ZIP codes were identified as potential hotspots due to small numbers of HIV seropositive PWID reporting transmission risk. Four ZIP codes were identified as potential hotspots for HCV transmission. 12 ZIP codes identified as hotspots for injecting drug use initiation. Discussion For HIV, the lack of potential hotspots is further validation of widespread effectiveness of efforts to reduce injecting-related HIV transmission. Injecting-related HIV transmission is likely to be a rare, random event. HCV prevention efforts should include focus on potential hotspots for transmission and on hotspots for initiation into injecting drug use. We consider application of methods for the current opioid epidemic in the US.Preventing Injection Drug use Initiation: State of the Evidence and Opportunities for the Future
Werb, D., Bluthenthal, R. N., Kolla, G., Strike, C., Kral, A. H., Uusküla, A., & Des Jarlais, D. (n.d.).Publication year
2018Journal title
Journal of Urban HealthVolume
95Issue
1Page(s)
91-98Psychiatric Comorbidities among People Who Inject Drugs in Hai Phong, Vietnam: The Need for Screening and Innovative Interventions
AbstractPham Minh, K., Vallo, R., Duong Thi, H., Khuat Thi Hai, O., Jarlais, D. C., Peries, M., Le, S. M., Rapoud, D., Quillet, C., Nham Thi, T. T., Hoang Thi, G., Feelemyer, J., Vu Hai, V., Moles, J. P., Pham Thu, X., Laureillard, D., Nagot, N., Michel, L., & Study Team, D. (n.d.).Publication year
2018Journal title
BioMed Research InternationalVolume
2018AbstractThe objective of this study is to describe psychiatric comorbidities, associated factors, and access to psychiatric assessment and care in a cohort of people who inject drugs (PWID) in Hai Phong, Vietnam. Mental health was assessed after 12 months' follow-up using the Mini International Neuropsychiatric Interview questionnaire (MINI 5.0.0). PWID medical history, drug use, and sociodemographic and clinical characteristics were also collected. Among 188 PWID who participated in the assessment, 48 (25.5%) had at least one psychiatric disorder and 19 (10.1%) had 2 or more psychiatric disorders. The most common current psychiatric disorders were major depressive episode (12.2%) and psychotic disorder (4.8%), reaching 10.1%for the latter when lifetime prevalence was considered. Females were more likely than males to have at least one psychiatric disorder, a major depressive disorder, or an anxiety disorder. Methamphetamine use was associated with an increased risk of presenting a lifetime psychotic syndrome. Problematic alcohol consumption was associated with an increased risk of having at least one psychiatric disorder. Psychiatric comorbidities are frequent among PWID in Vietnam. These results highlight the need for routine assessment and innovative interventions to address mental health needs among PWID. Community-based interventions targeting mental health prevention and care should be strongly supported.Risk behaviors for hiv and hcv infection among people who inject drugs in hai phong, viet nam, 2014
Failed generating bibliography.AbstractPublication year
2018Journal title
AIDS and BehaviorVolume
22Issue
7Page(s)
:2161-2171AbstractWe examined the potential for HIV and hepatitis C (HCV) transmission across persons who inject drugs (PWID), men-who-have-sex-with-men (MSM) and female commercial sex workers (CSW) PWID and the potential for sexual transmission of HIV from PWID to the general population in Hai Phong, Viet Nam. Using respondent driven and convenience sampling we recruited 603 participants in 2014. All participants used heroin; 24% used non-injected methamphetamine. HIV prevalence was 25%; HCV prevalence was 67%. HIV infection was associated with HCV prevalence and both infections were associated with length of injecting career. Reported injecting risk behaviors were low; unsafe sexual behavior was high among MSM-PWID and CSW-PWID. There is strong possibility of sexual transmission to primary partners facilitated by methamphetamine use. We would suggest future HIV prevention programs utilize multiple interventions including ‘‘treatment as prevention’’ to potential sexual transmission of HIV among MSM and CSW-PWID and from PWID to the general population.The relationship between health policy and public health interventions: A case study of the DRIVE project to "end" the HIV epidemic among people who inject drugs in Haiphong, Vietnam
AbstractHammett, T. M., Trang, N. T., Oanh, K. T. H., Huong, N. T., Giang, L. M., Huong, D. T., Nagot, N., & Des Jarlais, D. C. (n.d.).Publication year
2018Journal title
Journal of Public Health PolicyVolume
39Issue
2Page(s)
217-230AbstractWe present a case study of the effects of health policies on the implementation and potential outcomes of a public health intervention, using the DRIVE project, that aims to 'end' the HIV epidemic among people who inject drugs in Haiphong, Vietnam. DRIVE's success depends on two policy transitions: (1) integration of donor-funded HIV outpatient clinics into public health clinics and expansion of social health insurance; (2) implementation of a "Renovation Plan" for substance use treatment. Interviews and focus group discussions with key informants and review of policy documents and clinic data reveal that both policy transitions are underway but face challenges. DRIVE promises to show how evolving policy affects health interventions and how advocacy based on project data can improve policy. Broad lessons include the importance of clear and consistent policies, vigorous enforcement, and adequate funding of promulgated policies.Trends in HIV/AIDS morbidity and mortality in Eastern Mediterranean countries, 1990–2015: findings from the Global Burden of Disease 2015 study
Failed generating bibliography.AbstractPublication year
2018Journal title
International Journal of Public HealthVolume
63Page(s)
123-136AbstractObjectives: We used the results of the Global Burden of Disease 2015 study to estimate trends of HIV/AIDS burden in Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR) countries between 1990 and 2015. Methods: Tailored estimation methods were used to produce final estimates of mortality. Years of life lost (YLLs) were calculated by multiplying the mortality rate by population by age-specific life expectancy. Years lived with disability (YLDs) were computed as the prevalence of a sequela multiplied by its disability weight. Results: In 2015, the rate of HIV/AIDS deaths in the EMR was 1.8 (1.4–2.5) per 100,000 population, a 43% increase from 1990 (0.3; 0.2–0.8). Consequently, the rate of YLLs due to HIV/AIDS increased from 15.3 (7.6–36.2) per 100,000 in 1990 to 81.9 (65.3–114.4) in 2015. The rate of YLDs increased from 1.3 (0.6–3.1) in 1990 to 4.4 (2.7–6.6) in 2015. Conclusions: HIV/AIDS morbidity and mortality increased in the EMR since 1990. To reverse this trend and achieve epidemic control, EMR countries should strengthen HIV surveillance, and scale up HIV antiretroviral therapy and comprehensive prevention services.Using dual capture/recapture studies to estimate the population size of persons who inject drugs (PWID) in the city of Hai Phong, Vietnam
AbstractDes Jarlais, D., Khue, P. M., Feelemyer, J., Arasteh, K., Thi Huong, D., Thi Hai Oanh, K., Thi Giang, H., Thi Tuyet Thanh, N., Vinh, V. H., Heckathorn, D. D., Moles, J. P., Vallo, R., Quillet, C., Rapoud, D., Michel, L., Laureillard, D., Hammett, T., & Nagot, N. (n.d.).Publication year
2018Journal title
Drug and alcohol dependenceVolume
185Page(s)
106-111AbstractBackground: Good estimates of key population sizes are critical for appropriating resources to prevent HIV infection. We conducted two capture/recapture studies to estimate the number of PWID currently in Hai Phong, Vietnam. Methods: A 2014 respondent-driven sampling (RDS) survey served as one capture, and distribution of cigarette lighters at drug use “hotspots” in 2016 served as another “capture.” A 2016 survey using RDS, conducted 1 week after lighter distribution, served as “recapture” for both captures. Recaptured participants in the two surveys were identified with a computerized fingerprint reader. Recaptured participants from the lighter distribution were asked to show their lighters. Results: 1385 participants were included in the “recapture” survey. They were 94% male and had a median age of 39. All (100%) injected heroin, and HIV prevalence was 30%. 144 of the 603 participants in the 2014 survey and 152 of the 600 PWID who had received lighters were “recaptured” in the 2016 survey. After adjusting for police suppression of drug use hotspots and conducting sensitivity analyses, our best estimate of the population size from the lighter recapture was 4617 (95% CI: 4090–5143), and our best estimate from the 2014 survey recapture was 5220 (95% CI: 4568–5872). A combined best estimate of the PWID population in Hai Phong is 5000, range 4000–6000. Conclusions: The capture/recapture studies produced consistent estimates. Adding a lighter/token distribution to planned RDS surveys may provide an inexpensive method for estimating PWID population size. Analyses of the estimates should include contextual information about the local drug scene.Working With Persons Who Inject Drugs and Live in Rural Areas: Implications From China/Vietnam for the USA
AbstractDes Jarlais, D. C., Hammett, T. M., Kieu, B., Chen, Y., & Feelemyer, J. (n.d.).Publication year
2018Journal title
Current HIV/AIDS ReportsVolume
15Issue
4Page(s)
302-307AbstractPurpose of Review: To describe a small city/rural area HIV prevention project (the Cross Border Project) implemented in Ning Ming County, Guangxi Province, China, and Lang Son province, Vietnam, and consider its implications for addressing the opioid/heroin epidemic in small cities/rural areas in the USA. The description and the outcomes of the Cross Border project were taken from published reports, project records, and recent data provided by local public health authorities. Evaluation included serial cross-sectional surveys of people who inject drugs to assess trends in risk behaviors and HIV prevalence. HIV incidence was estimated from prevalence among new injectors and through BED testing. Recent Findings: The Cross Border project operated from 2002 to 2010. Key components of the project 2 included the use of peer outreach workers for HIV/AIDS education, distribution of sterile injection equipment and condoms, and collection of used injection equipment. The project had the strong support of local authorities, including law enforcement, and the general community. Significant reductions in risk behavior, HIV prevalence, and estimated HIV incidence were observed. Community support for the project was maintained. Activities have been continued and expanded since the project formally ended. Summary: The Cross Border project faced challenges similar to those occurring in the current opioid crisis in US small cities/rural areas: poor transportation, limited resources (particularly trained staff), poverty, and potential community opposition to helping people who use drugs. It should be possible to adapt the strategies used in the Cross Border project to small cities/rural areas in the US opioid epidemic.“It’s Never Just About the HIV:” HIV Primary Care Providers’ Perception of Substance Use in the Era of “Universal” Antiretroviral Medication Treatment
AbstractCampbell, A. N., Wolff, M., Weaver, L., Jarlais, D. D., & Tross, S. (n.d.).Publication year
2018Journal title
AIDS and BehaviorVolume
22Issue
3Page(s)
1006-1017AbstractAntiretroviral therapy (ART) is recommended for all people living with HIV (PLWH), regardless of disease status. Substance use disorders (SUD) are common barriers to successful HIV treatment; however, few studies have comprehensively explored how HIV primary care providers take SUDs into account in the context of universal ART implementation. This study uses thematic analysis of qualitative interviews to explore providers’ (N = 25) substance use assessment and factors associated with ART initiation. 64% of providers had 15 or more years of HIV treatment experience. Almost all providers agreed with the guidelines for universal ART initiation despite the presence of SUD. Still, identification and management of SUD is challenged by inconsistent assessment, providers’ misperceptions about SUD and patients’ willingness to discuss it, and lack of accessible treatment resources when SUD is identified. Greater guidance in systematic SUD assessment and management, combined with integrated addiction services, could enhance universal ART implementation among PLWH/SUD.Cross-sectional association between ZIP code-level gentrification and homelessness among a large community-based sample of people who inject drugs in 19 US cities
AbstractLinton, S. L., Cooper, H. L., Kelley, M. E., Karnes, C. C., Ross, Z., Wolfe, M. E., Friedman, S. R., Jarlais, D. D., Semaan, S., Tempalski, B., Sionean, C., Dinenno, E., Wejnert, C., & Paz-Bailey, G. (n.d.).Publication year
2017Journal title
BMJ openVolume
7Issue
6AbstractBackground Housing instability has been associated with poor health outcomes among people who inject drugs (PWID). This study investigates the associations of local-level housing and economic conditions with homelessness among a large sample of PWID, which is an underexplored topic to date. Methods PWID in this cross-sectional study were recruited from 19 large cities in the USA as part of National HIV Behavioral Surveillance. PWID provided self-reported information on demographics, behaviours and life events. Homelessness was defined as residing on the street, in a shelter, in a single room occupancy hotel, or in a car or temporarily residing with friends or relatives any time in the past year. Data on county-level rental housing unaffordability and demand for assisted housing units, and ZIP code-level gentrification (eg, index of percent increases in non-Hispanic white residents, household income, gross rent from 1990 to 2009) and economic deprivation were collected from the US Census Bureau and Department of Housing and Urban Development. Multilevel models evaluated the associations of local economic and housing characteristics with homelessness. Results Sixty percent (5394/8992) of the participants reported homelessness in the past year. The multivariable model demonstrated that PWID living in ZIP codes with higher levels of gentrification had higher odds of homelessness in the past year (gentrification: adjusted OR=1.11, 95% CI=1.04 to 1.17). Conclusions Additional research is needed to determine the mechanisms through which gentrification increases homelessness among PWID to develop appropriate community-level interventions.Decline in herpes simplex virus type 2 among non-injecting heroin and cocaine users in New York City, 2005 to 2014: Prospects for avoiding a resurgence of human immunodeficiency virus
AbstractDes Jarlais, D. C., Arasteh, K., Feelemyer, J., McKnight, C., Tross, S., Perlman, D. C., Campbell, A. N., Hagan, H., & Cooper, H. L. (n.d.).Publication year
2017Journal title
Sexually Transmitted DiseasesVolume
44Issue
2Page(s)
85-90AbstractBackground: Herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) infection increases both susceptibility to and transmissibility of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), and HSV-2 and HIV are often strongly associated in HIV epidemics. We assessed trends in HSV-2 prevalence among non-injecting drug users (NIDUs) when HIV prevalence declined from 16% to 8% among NIDUs in New York City. Methods: Subjects were current non-injecting users of heroin and/or cocaine and who had never injected illicit drugs. Three thousand one hundred fifty-seven NIDU subjects were recruited between 2005 and 2014 among persons entering Mount Sinai Beth Israel substance use treatment programs. Structured interviews, HIV, and HSV-2 testing were administered. Change over time was assessed by comparing 2005 to 2010 with 2011 to 2014 periods. Herpes simplex virus type 2 incidence was estimated among persons who participated in multiple years. Results: Herpes simplex virus type 2 prevalence was strongly associated with HIV prevalence (odds ratio, 3.9; 95% confidence interval, 2.9-5.1) from 2005 to 2014. Herpes simplex virus type 2 prevalence declined from 60% to 56% (P = 0.01). The percentage of NIDUs with neither HSV-2 nor HIVinfection increased from37% to 43%, (P < 0.001); the percentagewith HSV-2/HIV coinfection declined from 13% to 6% (P < 0.001). Estimated HSV-2 incidence was 1 to 2/100 person-years at risk. Conclusions: There were parallel declines in HIV and HSV-2 among NIDUs in New York City from 2005 to 2014. The increase in the percentage of NIDUs with neither HSV-2 nor HIV infection, the decrease in the percentage with HSV-2/HIV coinfection, and the low to moderate HSV-2 incidence suggest some population-level protection against resurgence of HIV. Prevention efforts should be strengthened to end the combined HIV/HSV-2 epidemic among NIDUs in New York City.Decline in HSV-2 among non-injecting Heroin and Cocaine users in New York City, 2005-2014: potential protection against HIV resurgence
Des Jarlais, D., Arasteh, K., Feelemyer, J., Mcknight, C., Tross, S., Perlman, D., Campbell, A. N. C., Hagan, H., & Cooper, H. L. F. (n.d.).Publication year
2017Journal title
Sexually Transmitted DiseasesPage(s)
85-90Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 333 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2016: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
Failed generating bibliography.AbstractPublication year
2017Journal title
The LancetVolume
390Issue
10100Page(s)
1260-1344AbstractBackground: Measurement of changes in health across locations is useful to compare and contrast changing epidemiological patterns against health system performance and identify specific needs for resource allocation in research, policy development, and programme decision making. Using the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016, we drew from two widely used summary measures to monitor such changes in population health: disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and healthy life expectancy (HALE). We used these measures to track trends and benchmark progress compared with expected trends on the basis of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Methods: We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 for all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and non-fatal disease burden to derive HALE and DALYs by sex for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2016. We calculated DALYs by summing years of life lost and years of life lived with disability for each location, age group, sex, and year. We estimated HALE using age-specific death rates and years of life lived with disability per capita. We explored how DALYs and HALE difered from expected trends when compared with the SDI: the geometric mean of income per person, educational attainment in the population older than age 15 years, and total fertility rate. Findings: The highest globally observed HALE at birth for both women and men was in Singapore, at 75·2 years (95% uncertainty interval 71·9-78·6) for females and 72·0 years (68·8-75·1) for males. The lowest for females was in the Central African Republic (45·6 years [42·0-49·5]) and for males was in Lesotho (41·5 years [39·0-44·0]). From 1990 to 2016, global HALE increased by an average of 6·24 years (5·97-6·48) for both sexes combined. Global HALE increased by 6·04 years (5·74-6·27) for males and 6·49 years (6·08-6·77) for females, whereas HALE at age 65 years increased by 1·78 years (1·61-1·93) for males and 1·96 years (1·69-2·13) for females. Total global DALYs remained largely unchanged from 1990 to 2016 (-2·3% [-5·9 to 0·9]), with decreases in communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) disease DALYs ofset by increased DALYs due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs). The exemplars, calculated as the fve lowest ratios of observed to expected age-standardised DALY rates in 2016, were Nicaragua, Costa Rica, the Maldives, Peru, and Israel. The leading three causes of DALYs globally were ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, and lower respiratory infections, comprising 16·1% of all DALYs. Total DALYs and age-standardised DALY rates due to most CMNN causes decreased from 1990 to 2016. Conversely, the total DALY burden rose for most NCDs; however, age-standardised DALY rates due to NCDs declined globally. Interpretation: At a global level, DALYs and HALE continue to show improvements. At the same time, we observe that many populations are facing growing functional health loss. Rising SDI was associated with increases in cumulative years of life lived with disability and decreases in CMNN DALYs ofset by increased NCD DALYs. Relative compression of morbidity highlights the importance of continued health interventions, which has changed in most locations in pace with the gross domestic product per person, education, and family planning. The analysis of DALYs and HALE and their relationship to SDI represents a robust framework with which to benchmark location-specific health performance. Country-specific drivers of disease burden, particularly for causes with higher-than-expected DALYs, should inform health policies, health system improvement initiatives, targeted prevention eforts, and development assistance for health, including fnancial and research investments for all countries, regardless of their level of sociodemographic development. The presence of countries that substantially outperform others suggests the need for increased scrutiny for proven examples of best practices, which can help to extend gains, whereas the presence of underperforming countries suggests the need for devotion of extra attention to health systems that need more robust support.Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 328 diseases and injuries for 195 countries, 1990-2016: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
Failed generating bibliography.AbstractPublication year
2017Journal title
The LancetVolume
390Issue
10100Page(s)
1211-1259AbstractBackground As mortality rates decline, life expectancy increases, and populations age, non-fatal outcomes of diseases and injuries are becoming a larger component of the global burden of disease. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) provides a comprehensive assessment of prevalence, incidence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 328 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2016. Methods We estimated prevalence and incidence for 328 diseases and injuries and 2982 sequelae, their non-fatal consequences. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, as the main method of estimation, ensuring consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, and cause of death rates for each condition. For some causes, we used alternative modelling strategies if incidence or prevalence needed to be derived from other data. YLDs were estimated as the product of prevalence and a disability weight for all mutually exclusive sequelae, corrected for comorbidity and aggregated to cause level. We updated the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and total fertility rate. GBD 2016 complies with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER). Findings Globally, low back pain, migraine, age-related and other hearing loss, iron-deficiency anaemia, and major depressive disorder were the five leading causes of YLDs in 2016, contributing 57·6 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 40·8-75·9 million [7·2%, 6·0-8·3]), 45·1 million (29·0-62·8 million [5·6%, 4·0-7·2]), 36·3 million (25·3-50·9 million [4·5%, 3·8-5·3]), 34·7 million (23·0-49·6 million [4·3%, 3·5-5·2]), and 34·1 million (23·5-46·0 million [4·2%, 3·2-5·3]) of total YLDs, respectively. Age-standardised rates of YLDs for all causes combined decreased between 1990 and 2016 by 2·7% (95% UI 2·3-3·1). Despite mostly stagnant age-standardised rates, the absolute number of YLDs from non-communicable diseases has been growing rapidly across all SDI quintiles, partly because of population growth, but also the ageing of populations. The largest absolute increases in total numbers of YLDs globally were between the ages of 40 and 69 years. Age-standardised YLD rates for all conditions combined were 10·4% (95% UI 9·0-11·8) higher in women than in men. Iron-deficiency anaemia, migraine, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, major depressive disorder, anxiety, and all musculoskeletal disorders apart from gout were the main conditions contributing to higher YLD rates in women. Men had higher age-standardised rates of substance use disorders, diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, cancers, and all injuries apart from sexual violence. Globally, we noted much less geographical variation in disability than has been documented for premature mortality. In 2016, there was a less than two times difference in age-standardised YLD rates for all causes between the location with the lowest rate (China, 9201 YLDs per 100 000, 95% UI 6862-11943) and highest rate (Yemen, 14 774 YLDs per 100 000, 11 018-19 228). Interpretation The decrease in death rates since 1990 for most causes has not been matched by a similar decline in age-standardised YLD rates. For many large causes, YLD rates have either been stagnant or have increased for some causes, such as diabetes. As populations are ageing, and the prevalence of disabling disease generally increases steeply with age, health systems will face increasing demand for services that are generally costlier than the interventions that have led to declines in mortality in childhood or for the major causes of mortality in adults. Up-todate information about the trends of disease and how this varies between countries is essential to plan for an adequate health-system response.Global, regional, and national under-5 mortality, adult mortality, age-specific mortality, and life expectancy, 1970-2016: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
Failed generating bibliography.AbstractPublication year
2017Journal title
The LancetVolume
390Issue
10100Page(s)
1084-1150AbstractBackground: Detailed assessments of mortality patterns, particularly age-specific mortality, represent a crucial input that enables health systems to target interventions to specific populations. Understanding how all-cause mortality has changed with respect to development status can identify exemplars for best practice. To accomplish this, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) estimated age-specific and sex-specific all-cause mortality between 1970 and 2016 for 195 countries and territories and at the subnational level for the five countries with a population greater than 200 million in 2016. Methods: We have evaluated how well civil registration systems captured deaths using a set of demographic methods called death distribution methods for adults and from consideration of survey and census data for children younger than 5 years. We generated an overall assessment of completeness of registration of deaths by dividing registered deaths in each location-year by our estimate of all-age deaths generated from our overall estimation process. For 163 locations, including subnational units in countries with a population greater than 200 million with complete vital registration (VR) systems, our estimates were largely driven by the observed data, with corrections for small fluctuations in numbers and estimation for recent years where there were lags in data reporting (lags were variable by location, generally between 1 year and 6 years). For other locations, we took advantage of different data sources available to measure under-5 mortality rates (U5MR) using complete birth histories, summary birth histories, and incomplete VR with adjustments; we measured adult mortality rate (the probability of death in individuals aged 15-60 years) using adjusted incomplete VR, sibling histories, and household death recall. We used the U5MR and adult mortality rate, together with crude death rate due to HIV in the GBD model life table system, to estimate age-specific and sex-specific death rates for each location-year. Using various international databases, we identified fatal discontinuities, which we defined as increases in the death rate of more than one death per million, resulting from conflict and terrorism, natural disasters, major transport or technological accidents, and a subset of epidemic infectious diseases; these were added to estimates in the relevant years. In 47 countries with an identified peak adult prevalence for HIV/AIDS of more than 0.5% and where VR systems were less than 65% complete, we informed our estimates of age-sex-specific mortality using the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP)-Spectrum model fitted to national HIV/AIDS prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance systems. We estimated stillbirths, early neonatal, late neonatal, and childhood mortality using both survey and VR data in spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression models. We estimated abridged life tables for all location-years using age-specific death rates. We grouped locations into development quintiles based on the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and analysed mortality trends by quintile. Using spline regression, we estimated the expected mortality rate for each age-sex group as a function of SDI. We identified countries with higher life expectancy than expected by comparing observed life expectancy to anticipated life expectancy on the basis of development status alone. Findings: Completeness in the registration of deaths increased from 28% in 1970 to a peak of 45% in 2013; completeness was lower after 2013 because of lags in reporting. Total deaths in children younger than 5 years decreased from 1970 to 2016, and slower decreases occurred at ages 5-24 years. By contrast, numbers of adult deaths increased in each 5-year age bracket above the age of 25 years. The distribution of annualised rates of change in age-specific mortality rate differed over the period 2000 to 2016 compared with earlier decades: increasing annualised rates of change were less frequent, although rising annualised rates of change still occurred in some locations, particularly for adolescent and younger adult age groups. Rates of stillbirths and under-5 mortality both decreased globally from 1970. Evidence for global convergence of death rates was mixed; although the absolute difference between age-standardised death rates narrowed between countries at the lowest and highest levels of SDI, the ratio of these death rates - a measure of relative inequality - increased slightly. There was a strong shift between 1970 and 2016 toward higher life expectancy, most noticeably at higher levels of SDI. Among countries with populations greater than 1 million in 2016, life expectancy at birth was highest for women in Japan, at 86.9 years (95% UI 86.7-87.2), and for men in Singapore, at 81.3 years (78.8-83.7) in 2016. Male life expectancy was generally lower than female life expectancy between 1970 and 2016, and the gap between male and female life expectancy increased with progression to higher levels of SDI. Some countries with exceptional health performance in 1990 in terms of the difference in observed to expected life expectancy at birth had slower progress on the same measure in 2016. Interpretation Globally, mortality rates have decreased across all age groups over the past five decades, with the largest improvements occurring among children younger than 5 years. However, at the national level, considerable heterogeneity remains in terms of both level and rate of changes in age-specific mortality; increases in mortality for certain age groups occurred in some locations. We found evidence that the absolute gap between countries in age-specific death rates has declined, although the relative gap for some age-sex groups increased. Countries that now lead in terms of having higher observed life expectancy than that expected on the basis of development alone, or locations that have either increased this advantage or rapidly decreased the deficit from expected levels, could provide insight into the means to accelerate progress in nations where progress has stalled.Healthcare access and quality index based on mortality from causes amenable to personal health care in 195 countries and territories, 1990-2015: A novel analysis from the global burden of disease study 2015
Failed generating bibliography.AbstractPublication year
2017Journal title
The LancetVolume
390Issue
10091Page(s)
231-266AbstractBackground National levels of personal health-care access and quality can be approximated by measuring mortality rates from causes that should not be fatal in the presence of effective medical care (ie, amenable mortality). Previous analyses of mortality amenable to health care only focused on high-income countries and faced several methodological challenges. In the present analysis, we use the highly standardised cause of death and risk factor estimates generated through the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) to improve and expand the quantification of personal health-care access and quality for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. Methods We mapped the most widely used list of causes amenable to personal health care developed by Nolte and McKee to 32 GBD causes. We accounted for variations in cause of death certification and misclassifications through the extensive data standardisation processes and redistribution algorithms developed for GBD. To isolate the effects of personal health-care access and quality, we risk-standardised cause-specific mortality rates for each geography-year by removing the joint effects of local environmental and behavioural risks, and adding back the global levels of risk exposure as estimated for GBD 2015. We employed principal component analysis to create a single, interpretable summary measure-the Healthcare Quality and Access (HAQ) Index-on a scale of 0 to 100. The HAQ Index showed strong convergence validity as compared with other health-system indicators, including health expenditure per capita (r=0·88), an index of 11 universal health coverage interventions (r=0·83), and human resources for health per 1000 (r=0·77). We used free disposal hull analysis with bootstrapping to produce a frontier based on the relationship between the HAQ Index and the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a measure of overall development consisting of income per capita, average years of education, and total fertility rates. This frontier allowed us to better quantify the maximum levels of personal health-care access and quality achieved across the development spectrum, and pinpoint geographies where gaps between observed and potential levels have narrowed or widened over time. Findings Between 1990 and 2015, nearly all countries and territories saw their HAQ Index values improve; nonetheless, the difference between the highest and lowest observed HAQ Index was larger in 2015 than in 1990, ranging from 28·6 to 94·6. Of 195 geographies, 167 had statistically significant increases in HAQ Index levels since 1990, with South Korea, Turkey, Peru, China, and the Maldives recording among the largest gains by 2015. Performance on the HAQ Index and individual causes showed distinct patterns by region and level of development, yet substantial heterogeneities emerged for several causes, including cancers in highest-SDI countries; chronic kidney disease, diabetes, diarrhoeal diseases, and lower respiratory infections among middle-SDI countries; and measles and tetanus among lowest-SDI countries. While the global HAQ Index average rose from 40·7 (95% uncertainty interval, 39·0-42·8) in 1990 to 53·7 (52·2-55·4) in 2015, far less progress occurred in narrowing the gap between observed HAQ Index values and maximum levels achieved; at the global level, the difference between the observed and frontier HAQ Index only decreased from 21·2 in 1990 to 20·1 in 2015. If every country and territory had achieved the highest observed HAQ Index by their corresponding level of SDI, the global average would have been 73·8 in 2015. Several countries, particularly in eastern and western sub-Saharan Africa, reached HAQ Index values similar to or beyond their development levels, whereas others, namely in southern sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East, and south Asia, lagged behind what geographies of similar development attained between 1990 and 2015. Interpretation This novel extension of the GBD Study shows the untapped potential for personal health-care access and quality improvement across the development spectrum. Amid substantive advances in personal health care at the national level, heterogeneous patterns for individual causes in given countries or territories suggest that few places have consistently achieved optimal health-care access and quality across health-system functions and therapeutic areas. This is especially evident in middle-SDI countries, many of which have recently undergone or are currently experiencing epidemiological transitions. The HAQ Index, if paired with other measures of health-system characteristics such as intervention coverage, could provide a robust avenue for tracking progress on universal health coverage and identifying local priorities for strengthening personal health-care quality and access throughout the world.