Erez Hatna
Erez Hatna
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Clinical Associate Professor of Epidemiology
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Professional overview
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Dr. Erez Hatna works in the fields of geoinformatics, spatial analysis, agent-based modeling, and studies urban dynamics, residential segregation, scaling laws of urban systems, and infectious disease modeling.
Dr. Hatna studies ethnic and economic residential patterns of cities using agent-based computational models of relocating households. The models simulate the formation of residential patterns as an outcome of relocation decisions of households. Dr. Hatna also studies the statistical regularities of urban systems and urban scaling. His research focuses on how the choice of urban boundaries influences the scaling relationships.
At NYU, Dr. Hatna is part of the Agent-based Modeling Lab, which works with large-scale epidemic models and cognitively plausible agents in order to produce a transformative synthesis for global public health modeling. Previously, he has conducted research at Wageningen University, University College London, and Johns Hopkins University.
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Education
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PhD, Geography, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, IsraelMA, Geography, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel
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Areas of research and study
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Agent-Based ModelingEpidemiologyGeographic Information Science (GIS)Geospatial MethodsInfectious DiseasesMathematical and Computational ModelingModeling Social and Behavioral DynamicsUrban Informatics
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Publications
Publications
Generating Mixed Patterns of Residential Segregation : An Evolutionary Approach
AbstractGunaratne, C., Hatna, E., Epstein, J. M., & Garibay, I. (n.d.).Publication year
2023Journal title
JASSSVolume
26Issue
2AbstractThe Schelling model of residential segregation has demonstrated that even the slightest preference for neighbors of the same race can be amplified into community-wide segregation. However, these models are unable to simulate mixed, coexisting patterns of segregation and integration, which have been seen to exist in cities. Using evolutionary model discovery we demonstrate how including social factors beyond racial bias when modeling relocation behavior enables the emergence of strongly mixed patterns. Our results indicate that the emergence of mixed patterns is better explained by multiple factors influencing the decision to relocate; the most important being the interaction of nonlinear, rapidly diminishing racial bias with a recent, historical tendency to move. Additionally, preference for less isolated neighborhoods or preference for neighborhoods with longer residing neighbors may produce weaker mixed patterns. This work highlights the importance of exploring the influence of multiple hypothesized factors of decision making, and their interactions, within agent rules, when studying emergent outcomes generated by agent-based models of complex social systems.Geo-simulation of urban dynamics
AbstractBenenson, I., Hatna, E., & Omer, I. (n.d.).Publication year
2006Journal title
Journal of the Israeli Association of PlannersVolume
3Issue
1Page(s)
121-141Abstract~Geosimulation of income-based Urban residential patterns
AbstractHatna, E., & Benenson, I. (n.d.).Publication year
2011Page(s)
111-125AbstractMaps of high-resolution residential patterns of Israeli cities reveal essential spatial heterogeneity in relation to family income, a situation that was found in eight of the nine cities investigated. Modern urban theory provides several explanations of how homogeneous urban patterns self-organize and persist; however the mechanisms that allow the persistence of heterogeneous patterns remain unexplained. We argue that the observed residential heterogeneity can be explained on the basis of householders' residential preferences and behavior. Namely, the householders differ in respect to their willingness to reside near poorer neighbors. Residential heterogeneity is the consequence of this variability. In order to investigate this hypothesis, we developed an agent-based model of residential dynamics in the city, which extends the Schelling model of segregation. Model residential agents represent families, which differ in their economic abilities and their tolerance of poorer neighbors. Using the model, we demonstrate that quite a low fraction of tolerant agents is sufficient for the emergence and persistence of heterogeneous residential areas in the city. This result is robust to the uncertainty of our knowledge about the fraction of highly tolerant agents - the variation in this fraction only weakly influences the resulting urban heterogeneity. We thus conclude that the presence of residential agents who are tolerant of their poorer neighbors is sufficient to explain long-term urban heterogeneity and we discuss the possible consequences of this result for the theory of urban gentrification.Influence of provider and urgent care density across different socioeconomic strata on outpatient antibiotic prescribing in the USA
AbstractKlein, E. Y., Makowsky, M., Orlando, M., Hatna, E., Braykov, N. P., & Laxminarayan, R. (n.d.).Publication year
2014Journal title
Journal of Antimicrobial ChemotherapyVolume
70Issue
5Page(s)
1580-1587AbstractObjectives: Despite a strong link between antibiotic use and resistance, and highly variable antibiotic consumption rates across the USA, drivers of differences in consumption rates are not fully understood. The objective of this study was to examine how provider density affects antibiotic prescribing rates across socioeconomic groups in the USA. Methods: We aggregated data on all outpatient antibiotic prescriptions filled in retail pharmacies in the USA in 2000 and 2010 from IMS Health into 3436 geographically distinct hospital service areas and combined this with socioeconomic and structural factors that affect antibiotic prescribing from the US Census. We then used fixedeffect models to estimate the interaction between poverty and the number of physician offices per capita (i.e. physician density) and the presence of urgent care and retail clinics on antibiotic prescribing rates. Results:We found large geographical variation in prescribing, driven in part by the number of physician offices per capita. For an increase of one standard deviation in the number of physician offices per capita there was a 25.9% increase in prescriptions per capita. However, the determinants of the prescription ratewere dependent on socioeconomic conditions. In poorer areas, clinics substitute for traditional physician offices, reducing the impact of physician density. In wealthier areas, clinics increase the effect of physician density on the prescribing rate. Conclusions: In areas with higher poverty rates, access to providers drives the prescribing rate. However, in wealthier areas, where access is less of a problem, a higher density of providers and clinics increases the prescribing rate, potentially due to competition.Long-term changes in the configuration of agriculture and natural areas around cities in the Netherlands (1900-1990)
AbstractAbstractCities' influence on the spatial configuration of land in their proximity has presumably changed during the last century as agriculture, cities, and transportation evolved. Investigation of these changes has been limited due to the limited availability of historical maps in digital form. In this chapter, we employ a set of digitized historical land-cover maps in order to compare the spatial distribution of cropland, pasture, and nature surrounding cities in the Netherlands for three time periods: 1900, 1960 and 1990. Our findings suggest that the land cover around cities was relatively stable during these time periods. However, we discovered that, near the perimeter of cities, in 1900, we could discern a clear trend of higher fractions of cropland. These tendencies weakened by the middle of the century and almost completely ceased by 1990.Minority-majority relations in the schelling model of residential dynamics
AbstractBenenson, I., & Hatna, E. (n.d.).Publication year
2011Journal title
Geographical AnalysisVolume
43Issue
3Page(s)
287-305AbstractThe Schelling model describing segregation between two groups of residential agents, reflects the most abstract, basic view of noneconomic forces motivating residential migrations: be close to people of "your ownkind. The model assumes that residential agents, located in neighborhoods where the fraction of "friendsis less than a predefined threshold value F, try to relocate to neighborhoods where this fraction is F or higher. For groups of equal size, Schelling's residential pattern converges either to complete integration (random pattern) or segregation, depending on F. We investigate Schelling model pattern dynamics as a function of F in addition to two other parameters-the ratio of groups' numbers, and neighborhood size. We demonstrate that the traditional integration-segregation pattern dichotomy should be extended. In the case of groups of different sizes, a wide interval of F-values exists that entails a third persistent residential pattern, one in which a portion of the majority population segregates while the rest remains integrated with the minority. We also demonstrate that Schelling model dynamics essentially depend on the formalization of urban agents' residential behavior. To obtain realistic results, the agents should be satisficers, and the fraction of the agents relocating irrespective of the neighborhood's state should be nonzero. We discuss the relationship between our results and real-world residential dynamics. Relaciones entre minoría y mayoría en el modelo de dinámica residencial de Schelling El modelo de Schelling describe la segregación entre dos grupos de agentes residenciales (Schelling 1971, 1978) a partir del supuesto más básico y abstracto acerca de las fuerzas no económicas que motivan las migraciones residenciales: la cercanía a gente de "su mismotipo. El modelo asume que los agentes residenciales, ubicados en los barrios donde la fracción de "amigoses menor a un valor umbral predefinido F, tratarán de trasladarse a los vecindarios donde esta fracción es F o mayor. Para grupos de igual tamaño, el patrón residencial de Schelling converge ya sea hacia la integración completa (modelo aleatorio), o hacia la segregación, en función al valor de F. Los autores investigan las dinámicas del patrón modelo de Shelling en función a F y a dos parámetros adicionales: el ratio o tasa de tamaño de los grupos, y el tamaño del barrio/vecindad. Los resultados demuestran que la dicotomía tradicional de patrones de integración-segregación debe ser revisada y ampliada. En el caso de grupos de diferentes tamaños, se halló que existe un amplio intervalo de valores para F, lo cual supone un tercer tipo de patrón residencial persistente: un patrón en el que una parte (o grupo) mayoritario de la población se segrega, mientras que el resto de esta mayoría permanece integrado con la minoría. También se demuestra que las dinámicas del modelo de Schelling dependen esencialmente de la formalización del comportamiento residencial de los agentes urbanos. Para obtener resultados realistas, los agentes deben ser satisfactores (satisficers), y la fracción de los agentes que se reubican debe ser distinta a cero, independientemente de las características de 4 vecindad. Finalmente, los autores discuten la relación entre sus resultados y las dinámicas residenciales en el mundo real.Mobilizing Ebola survivors to curb the epidemic
AbstractEpstein, J. M., Sauer, L. M., Chelen, J., Hatna, E., Parker, J., Rothman, R. E., & Rubinson, L. (n.d.).Publication year
2014Journal title
NatureVolume
516Issue
7531Page(s)
323-325Abstract~Modeling Human Residential Behavior
AbstractOmer, I., Hatna, E., & Benenson, I. (n.d.).Publication year
2000Page(s)
116-137Abstract~On the problem of boundaries and scaling for urban street networks
AbstractMasucci, A. P., Arcaute, E., Hatna, E., Stanilov, K., & Batty, M. (n.d.).Publication year
2015Journal title
Journal of the Royal Society InterfaceVolume
12Issue
111AbstractUrban morphology has presented significant intellectual challenges to mathematicians and physicists ever since the eighteenth century, when Euler first explored the famous Königsberg bridges problem. Many important regularities and scaling laws have been observed in urban studies, including Zipf's law and Gibrat's law, rendering cities attractive systems for analysis within statistical physics. Nevertheless, a broad consensus on how cities and their boundaries are defined is still lacking. Applying an elementary clustering technique to the street intersection space, we show that growth curves for the maximum cluster size of the largest cities in the UK and in California collapse to a single curve, namely the logistic. Subsequently, by introducing the concept of the condensation threshold, we show that natural boundaries of cities can be well defined in a universal way. This allows us to study and discuss systematically some of the regularities that are present in cities. We show that some scaling laws present consistent behaviour in space and time, thus suggesting the presence of common principles at the basis of the evolution of urban systems.Paradoxical Interpretations of Urban Scaling Laws
AbstractCottineau, C., Hatna, E., Arcaute, E., & Batty, M. (n.d.).Publication year
2015Journal title
arXivAbstractScaling laws are powerful summaries of the variations of urban attributes with city size. However, the validity of their universal meaning for cities is hampered by the observation that different scaling regimes can be encountered for the same territory, time and attribute, depending on the criteria used to delineate cities. The aim of this paper is to present new insights concerning this variation, coupled with a sensitivity analysis of urban scaling in France, for several socio-economic and infrastructural attributes from data collected exhaustively at the local level. The sensitivity analysis considers different aggregations of local units for which data are given by the Population Census. We produce a large variety of definitions of cities (approximatively 5000) by aggregating local Census units corresponding to the systematic combination of three definitional criteria: density, commuting flows and population cutoffs. We then measure the magnitude of scaling estimations and their sensitivity to city definitions for several urban indicators, showing for example that simple population cutoffs impact dramatically on the results obtained for a given system and attribute. Variations are interpreted with respect to the meaning of the attributes (socio-economic descriptors as well as infrastructure) and the urban definitions used (understood as the combination of the three criteria). Because of the Modifiable Areal Unit Problem and of the heterogeneous morphologies and social landscapes in the cities internal space, scaling estimations are subject to large variations, distorting many of the conclusions on which generative models are based. We conclude that examining scaling variations might be an opportunity to understand better the inner composition of cities with regard to their size, i.e. to link the scales of the city-system with the system of cities.Privacy and contact tracing efficacy
AbstractBenthall, S., Hatna, E., Epstein, J., & Strandburg, K. J. (n.d.).Publication year
2022Journal title
Journal of the Royal Society InterfaceVolume
19Issue
194AbstractAs the COVID-19 pandemic emerged, public health authorities and software designers considered the possibility that smartphones could be used for contact tracing to control disease spread. Smartphone-based contact tracing was attractive in part because it promised to allow the tracing of contacts that might not be reported using traditional contact tracing methods. Comprehensive contact tracing raises distinctive privacy concerns, however, that have not been previously explored. Contacts outside of an individual's ordinary social network are more likely to be privacy-sensitive, making fear that such contacts will be disclosed a potential disincentive to adoption of smartphone contact tracing. Here, we modify the standard SEIR infectious disease transmission model to incorporate contact tracing and perform a series of simulations aimed at studying the importance of tracing socially distant (and potentially privacy-sensitive) contacts. We find that, for a simple model network, ensuring that distant contacts are traced is surprisingly unimportant as long as contact tracing adoption is sufficiently high. These results suggest that policy-makers designing contact tracing systems should be willing to trade off comprehensiveness for more widespread adoption.Regions and cities in Britain through hierarchical percolation
AbstractHatna, E. (n.d.).Publication year
2016Journal title
arXivAbstract~Residential distribution in the city - Reexamined
AbstractBenenson, I., Or, E., Hatna, E., & Omer, I. (n.d.).Publication year
2006Page(s)
1-12AbstractThe recent boom in high-resolution GIS makes possible the investigation of urban residential distributions at the resolution of individual buildings and families. Availability of these data has inspired reexamination of the Schelling model of residential segregation and its application for simulating population patterns in real cities. The current paper argues that the Schelling model satisfies this criterion and consequently applies it to explain real-world residential pattern dynamic in nine Israeli cities. The study is based on data obtained from a unique Israeli census database in which individual and family records are geo-referenced to the layer of buildings. Analysis of the income-based residential patterns reveals their high heterogeneity - a mix of homo- and heterogeneous areas is typical for eight of the nine cities investigated. We explain this heterogeneity by the presence of a low fraction of wealthier householders who are highly tolerant of their poorer neighbors and can thus reside in their proximity. Extension of the model in this direction results in a qualitative correspondence between the model's outcomes and the residential patterns observed in Israeli cities.Simulating the simultaneous impact of medication for opioid use disorder and naloxone on opioid overdose death in eight New York counties
AbstractHatna, E., Cerdá, M., Hamilton, A. D., Hyder, A., Rutherford, C., Bobashev, G., Epstein, J. M., Hatna, E., Krawczyk, N., El-Bassel, N., Feaster, D. J., & Keyes, K. M. (n.d.).Publication year
2024Journal title
Epidemiology (Cambridge, Mass.)AbstractThe United States is in the midst of an opioid overdose epidemic; 28.3 per 100,000 people died of opioid overdose in 2020. Simulation models can help understand and address this complex, dynamic, nonlinear social phenomenon. Using the HEALing Communities Study, aimed at reducing opioid overdoses, and an agent-based model, SiCLOPS (Simulation of Community-Level Overdose Prevention Strategy), we simulated increases in buprenorphine initiation and retention and naloxone distribution aimed at reducing overdose deaths by 40% in New York Counties.Special Section on "Inverse Generative Social Science" : Guest Editors’ Statement
AbstractEpstein, J. M., Garibay, I., Hatna, E., Koehler, M., & Rand, W. (n.d.).Publication year
2023Journal title
JASSSVolume
26Issue
2AbstractThis is a guest editors’ statement accompanying the publication of a special issue on "Inverse Generative Social Science", published in volume 26, issue 2, 2023 of JASSS-Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation".Study of Urban Developers' behavior in a Game Environment
AbstractHatna, E., & Benenson, I. (n.d.). (S. Albeverio, D. Andrey, P. Goirdano, & A. Vancheri, Eds.).Publication year
2007Page(s)
265-286Abstract~The impact of anthropogenic factors on the behavior, reproduction, management and welfare of urban, free-roaming cat populations
AbstractFinkler, H., Hatna, E., & Terkel, J. (n.d.).Publication year
2011Journal title
AnthrozoosVolume
24Issue
1Page(s)
31-49AbstractFree-roaming domestic cats constitute an integral part of many urban ecosystems worldwide; their presence results from undisturbed natural reproduction, abandonment by pet owners, and abundant food resources. These cats present controversial and emotional issues regarding management of their high densities, hygiene and epidemiologic risks to humans, and predation of wildlife. Improved urban cat management requires greater knowledge of the anthropogenic factors affecting free-roaming cat populations. In this study, we explored the relationship between caretaker treatment levels and the socioeconomics of the caretakers and neighborhoods, and free-roaming cat reproduction management, behavior, and physiology in urban populations. Eight free-roaming cat feeding groups, from eight neighborhoods in Tel Aviv, Israel, were observed for six months. Neighborhoods displayed differences in socioeconomic status and housing type, and cat feeding groups reflected different levels of caretaker treatment with regard to neutering, physical interaction with the cats, and medical treatment. We examined whether agonistic behaviors, neutering rates, pregnancy rates, and cortisol levels of the cats differed between groups. We found a strong socio-economic effect on neutering and pregnancy rates: low-income neighborhoods had lower neutering and higher pregnancy rates. Higher-level caretaking was associated with lowered aggression, as well as lower cortisol levels of neutered females. Additionally, analysis of data from 622 registered cat feeding groups from north (high-income) and south (lowincome) Tel Aviv, obtained from the municipal veterinary department, revealed a socio-economic influence on reproduction management. Our results indicate that, in urban environments, both the neighborhood's socio-economic status and the caretaker treatment level affect management of these cat populations. We conclude that, to improve cat management success, municipalities should consider addressing these socio-economic differences, while, just as importantly, raising awareness and encouraging caretaker involvement in neutering efforts. Improved caretaker treatment levels can lead to reduced cat aggression, with consequent improved cat welfare and reduced noise disturbance to humans.The influence of neighbourhood socio-demographic factors on densities of free-roaming cat populations in an urban ecosystem in Israel
AbstractFinkler, H., Hatna, E., & Terkel, J. (n.d.).Publication year
2011Journal title
Wildlife ResearchVolume
38Issue
3Page(s)
235-243AbstractContext Free-roaming cat populations are abundant in many urban ecosystems worldwide. Their management is necessary for reasons of public health, risk of wildlife predation and cat welfare related to their high densities. Trapneuterreturn (TNR) programs are now the main cat population control strategy in urban areas. However, the efficacy of such strategies is difficult to evaluate without more precise estimates of cat numbers and a better knowledge of anthropogenic influences on cat densities. Aims We aimed to estimate free-roaming cat population numbers and density in residential neighbourhoods in Tel Aviv, and to investigate population densities in relation to several socio-demographic factors. Methods We compared free-roaming cat population densities in terms of neighbourhood socio-economic status (SES), housing type, human density and percentage of residential and commercial areas. Five consecutive cat density surveys were carried out in eight residential neighbourhoods in Israel four in northern Tel Aviv, characterised by high SES, and four in southern Tel Aviv, characterised by low SES. The photographic capturerecapture technique was used and abundance estimates were evaluated using the MARK program. Regression analyses examined the effect of socio-demographic factors on cat densities. Key results Neighbourhood socio-economic status significantly influenced kitten density and proportion of neutered cats in the total population: southern neighbourhoods had higher kitten densities and lower neutered cat proportions compared with northern neighbourhoods. Higher adult cat densities featured in mixed profile neighbourhoods of residential and commercial areas compared with solely residential neighbourhoods. Using the linear equation from the regression analysis the entire free-roaming cat population in Tel Aviv was extrapolated to 39000 cats. Conclusions The results suggest that adult cat and kitten densities depend in part on socio-demographic factors, specifically on neighbourhood socio-economic status and the proportion of residential area. Implications Our findings in Tel Aviv may be used to improve cat management efforts, by focusing on neighbourhoods hosting higher cat densities; as well as to improve cat welfare by focusing on neighbourhoods with lower neutering rates and higher kitten densities. Finally, the current study may serve as a basis for studies in other cities with similar cat overpopulation problems.The role of analytical models and their impacts on urban studies and policy. Urban Studies
AbstractCottineau, C., Batty, M., Benenson, I., Delloye, J., Hatna, E., Pumain, D., Sarkar, S., Cécile, T., & Ubarevičienė, R. (n.d.).Publication year
2024Journal title
Urban StudiesAbstract~The schelling model of ethnic residential dynamics : Beyond the integrated - segregated dichotomy of patterns
AbstractHatna, E., & Benenson, I. (n.d.).Publication year
2012Journal title
JASSSVolume
15Issue
1AbstractThe Schelling model of segregation is an agent-based model that illustrates how individual tendencies regarding neighbors can lead to segregation. The model is especially useful for the study of residential segregation of ethnic groups where agents represent householders who relocate in the city. In the model, each agent belongs to one of two groups and aims to reside within a neighborhood where the fraction of 'friends' is sufficiently high: above a predefined tolerance threshold value F. It is known that depending on F, for groups of equal size, Schelling's residential pattern converges to either complete integration (a random-like pattern) or segregation. The study of high-resolution ethnic residential patterns of Israeli cities reveals that reality is more complicated than this simple integration-segregation dichotomy: Some neighborhoods are ethnically homogeneous while others are populated by both groups in varying ratios. In this study, we explore whether the Schelling model can reproduce such patterns. We investigate the model's dynamics in terms of dependence on group-specific tolerance thresholds and on the ratio of the size of the two groups. We reveal new type of model pattern in which a portion of one group segregates while another portion remains integrated with the second group. We compare the characteristics of these new patterns to the pattern of real cities and discuss the differences.The Third State of the Schelling Model of Residential Dynamics
AbstractBenenson, I., & Hatna, E. (n.d.).Publication year
2009Journal title
arXivAbstractThe Schelling model of segregation between two groups of residential agents (Schelling 1971; Schelling 1978) reflects the most abstract view of the non-economic forces of residential migrations: be close to people of 'your own'. The model assumes that the residential agent, located in the neighborhood where the fraction of 'friends' is less than a predefined threshold value F, tries to relocate to a neighborhood for which this fraction is above F. It is well known that for the equal groups, depending on F, Schelling's residential pattern converges either to complete integration (random pattern) or segregation. We investigate Schelling model pattern dynamics as dependent on F, the ratio of the group numbers and the size of the neighborhood and demonstrate that the traditional integrate-segregate dichotomy is incomplete. In case of unequal groups, there exists the wide interval of the F-values that entails the third persistent residential pattern, in which part of the majority population segregates, while the rest remains integrated with the minority. We also demonstrate that Schelling model dynamics essentially depends on the description of agents' residential behavior. To obtain sociologically meaningful results, the agents should be satisficers, and the fraction of the agents who relocate irrespective of the neighborhood state should be non-zero.Triple contagion : A two-fears epidemic model
AbstractEpstein, J. M., Hatna, E., & Crodelle, J. (n.d.).Publication year
2021Journal title
Journal of the Royal Society InterfaceVolume
18Issue
181AbstractWe present a differential equations model in which contagious disease transmission is affected by contagious fear of the disease and contagious fear of the control, in this case vaccine. The three contagions are coupled. The two fears evolve and interact in ways that shape distancing behaviour, vaccine uptake, and their relaxation. These behavioural dynamics in turn can amplify or suppress disease transmission, which feeds back to affect behaviour. The model reveals several coupled contagion mechanisms for multiple epidemic waves. Methodologically, the paper advances infectious disease modelling by including human behavioural adaptation, drawing on the neuroscience of fear learning, extinction and transmission.Universal properties for Urban street networks
AbstractMasucci, A. P., Arcaute, E., Wang, J., Hatna, E., & Batty, M. (n.d.). (R. Chbeir, R. Chbeir, K. Yetongnon, & A. Dipanda, Eds.).Publication year
2015Page(s)
295-300AbstractUrban street networks are relevant examples for transportation networks in the field of complex systems. In terms of network theory they can be analysed in the so called primal space, where they display fractal properties and different allometries and where their size distribution follows the Zipf's law. Moreover, they can be analysed in the so called information space, where they display the typical properties of small world networks, such as fat tail distribution and high hierarchical and modular organization. In this paper we present results about the city boundary definition problem, that arise from universal properties emerging by applying percolation theory to the primal space. We discuss the results in respect to relevant allometries in the primal space.