Emmanuel Peprah

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Associate Professor of Global and Environmental Health

Dr. Emmanuel Peprah’s research interests lie at the confluence of understanding what, why, and how some evidence-based interventions work in some populations and not others. The programattic focus of his research is understanding the contextual factors that influence the burden of co-morbidity in people living with HIV/AIDS (PLWH), with a particular focus on cardiovascular disease risk factors and mental health. As the burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) continues to increase, there is an opportunity to integrate NCD management into HIV care with implemention strategies that leverage the global infrasturcture designed to improve care delivery for PLWH. Dr. Peprah has built collaborations with multidisciplinary teams of investigators, both nationally and internationally, to address the high burden of comorbidity in PLWH globally. He is also the founder of the Baakoye Foundation, a nonprofit philanthropic organization dedicated to serving people in sub-Saharan Africa, and co-founder of the Washington Leaders Index (WLI), which aims to empower the next generation of emerging leaders through active, innovative, and inclusive leadership programs. Both nonprofit organizations serve the needs of children and people globally within the domains of education and health.

Before joining GPH, Dr. Peprah was a senior program official at the National Institutes of Health (NIH), where he worked with senior leadership to oversee strategic planning, initiative development, and implementation of research priorities in the areas of translational research, implementation science, and global health. He led and managed HIV/AIDS programs and a $10 million portfolio as part of the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute’s Trans-Omics for Precision Medicine Program. He was instrumental in launching the Human, Heredity, and Health in Africa (H3Africa) Initiative, a multimillion trans-NIH program, and served on its executive board. Dr. Peprah has received several awards for strategic planning, management, and implementation of large-scale NIH programs.

Education

BS, Biology, Texas A&M University, Commerce, TX

PhD, Molecular Biology & Biomedical Science, Meharry Medical College, Nashville, TN

Honors and awards

NIH Director’s Award for Leadership H3Africa Stage II Team: For exceptional leadership and dedication in implementing Stage II of the Human Heredity and Health in Africa program (2018)

NHLBI’s Director's for Outstanding Service (2018)

NHLBI’s Director's for Outstanding Service Partnership/Collaboration Award for bringing multiple disciplines together to understand HIV-related co-morbidities and prepare for the challenges presented by the complex conditions of the new HIV era (2018)

NHLBI’s Director's for Outstanding Translational Science Award for demonstrating exemplary leadership and service in advancing translation research (2017)

Federal Service Career Promotion (2016)

NHLBI’s Director's for Outstanding Translational Science Award as part of the Center for Translational Research and Implementation Science (CTRIS) Leadership Team for demonstrating exemplary leadership and service in advancing CTRIS’s translation (2016)

NHLBI’s Director's for Breath of Fresh Air (Innovation) award for exemplary work evaluating NHLBI’s support for multi-project research grants and proposing creative and innovative enhancements to the NHLBI’s program project grants (PPG) (2016)

NHLBI’s Director's for Learning Environment Award for fostering a learning environment through effective administration, knowledge sharing, and thoughtful implementation of the NHLBI R35 Program (2016)

NHLBI’s Director's for Partnership/Collaboration in recognition of outstanding collaborative efforts in developing a conceptual framework for the NHLBI R35 program to provide greater funding stability and flexibility to investigators (2015)

NIH Director's Common Fund Leadership Award for the NIH Common Fund Early Independence Award Program (2013)

NIH Director's Award as a member of the Common Fund Global Health Leadership Team for outstanding service in the coordination of the Common Fund Global Health Initiatives (2012)

Certificate of Appreciation for Invited Presenter, NIH Seminar Series, STEM Careers (2012)

Certificate of Appreciation for Invited Presenter, Washington Mathematics Science Technology Public Charter High School, Washington, DC (2012)

Leadership Award, Postdoctoral Fellows Research Symposium Committee, Emory University, Atlanta, GA (2008)

Areas of research and study

Dissemination and Implementation of Evidence-based Programs

HIV/AIDS

Implementation science

Inter-organizational Networks

Translational science

Publications

Global burden of 87 risk factors in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Abbafati, C., Abbas, K. M., Abbasi-Kangevari, M., Abd-Allah, F., Abdelalim, A., Abdollahi, M., Abdollahpour, I., Abegaz, K. H., Abolhassani, H., Aboyans, V., Abreu, L. G., Abrigo, M. R., Abualhasan, A., Abu-Raddad, L. J., Abushouk, A. I., Adabi, M., Adekanmbi, V., Adeoye, A. M., Adetokunboh, O. O., … Murray, C. J. (n.d.).

Publication year

2020

Journal title

The Lancet

Volume

396

Issue

10258

Page(s)

1223-1249

10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30752-2

Abstract

Abstract

Background: Rigorous analysis of levels and trends in exposure to leading risk factors and quantification of their effect on human health are important to identify where public health is making progress and in which cases current efforts are inadequate. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 provides a standardised and comprehensive assessment of the magnitude of risk factor exposure, relative risk, and attributable burden of disease. Methods: GBD 2019 estimated attributable mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years of life lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 87 risk factors and combinations of risk factors, at the global level, regionally, and for 204 countries and territories. GBD uses a hierarchical list of risk factors so that specific risk factors (eg, sodium intake), and related aggregates (eg, diet quality), are both evaluated. This method has six analytical steps. (1) We included 560 risk–outcome pairs that met criteria for convincing or probable evidence on the basis of research studies. 12 risk–outcome pairs included in GBD 2017 no longer met inclusion criteria and 47 risk–outcome pairs for risks already included in GBD 2017 were added based on new evidence. (2) Relative risks were estimated as a function of exposure based on published systematic reviews, 81 systematic reviews done for GBD 2019, and meta-regression. (3) Levels of exposure in each age-sex-location-year included in the study were estimated based on all available data sources using spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression method, or alternative methods. (4) We determined, from published trials or cohort studies, the level of exposure associated with minimum risk, called the theoretical minimum risk exposure level. (5) Attributable deaths, YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs were computed by multiplying population attributable fractions (PAFs) by the relevant outcome quantity for each age-sex-location-year. (6) PAFs and attributable burden for combinations of risk factors were estimated taking into account mediation of different risk factors through other risk factors. Across all six analytical steps, 30 652 distinct data sources were used in the analysis. Uncertainty in each step of the analysis was propagated into the final estimates of attributable burden. Exposure levels for dichotomous, polytomous, and continuous risk factors were summarised with use of the summary exposure value to facilitate comparisons over time, across location, and across risks. Because the entire time series from 1990 to 2019 has been re-estimated with use of consistent data and methods, these results supersede previously published GBD estimates of attributable burden. Findings: The largest declines in risk exposure from 2010 to 2019 were among a set of risks that are strongly linked to social and economic development, including household air pollution; unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing; and child growth failure. Global declines also occurred for tobacco smoking and lead exposure. The largest increases in risk exposure were for ambient particulate matter pollution, drug use, high fasting plasma glucose, and high body-mass index. In 2019, the leading Level 2 risk factor globally for attributable deaths was high systolic blood pressure, which accounted for 10·8 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 9·51–12·1) deaths (19·2% [16·9–21·3] of all deaths in 2019), followed by tobacco (smoked, second-hand, and chewing), which accounted for 8·71 million (8·12–9·31) deaths (15·4% [14·6–16·2] of all deaths in 2019). The leading Level 2 risk factor for attributable DALYs globally in 2019 was child and maternal malnutrition, which largely affects health in the youngest age groups and accounted for 295 million (253–350) DALYs (11·6% [10·3–13·1] of all global DALYs that year). The risk factor burden varied considerably in 2019 between age groups and locations. Among children aged 0–9 years, the three leading detailed risk factors for attributable DALYs were all related to malnutrition. Iron deficiency was the leading risk factor for those aged 10–24 years, alcohol use for those aged 25–49 years, and high systolic blood pressure for those aged 50–74 years and 75 years and older. Interpretation: Overall, the record for reducing exposure to harmful risks over the past three decades is poor. Success with reducing smoking and lead exposure through regulatory policy might point the way for a stronger role for public policy on other risks in addition to continued efforts to provide information on risk factor harm to the general public. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global, regional, and national burden of congenital heart disease, 1990–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Zimmerman, M. S., Smith, A. G. C., Sable, C. A., Echko, M. M., Wilner, L. B., Olsen, H. E., Atalay, H. T., Awasthi, A., Bhutta, Z. A., Boucher, J. L. A., Castro, F., Cortesi, P. A., Dubey, M., Fischer, F., Hamidi, S., Hay, S. I., Hoang, C. L., Hugo-Hamman, C., Jenkins, K. J., … Kassebaum, N. J. (n.d.).

Publication year

2020

Journal title

The Lancet Child and Adolescent Health

Volume

Issue

Page(s)

185-200

10.1016/S2352-4642(19)30402-X

Abstract

Abstract

Background: Previous congenital heart disease estimates came from few data sources, were geographically narrow, and did not evaluate congenital heart disease throughout the life course. Completed as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017, this study aimed to provide comprehensive estimates of congenital heart disease mortality, prevalence, and disability by age for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2017. Methods: Mortality estimates were generated for aggregate congenital heart disease and non-fatal estimates for five subcategories (single ventricle and single ventricle pathway congenital heart anomalies; severe congenital heart anomalies excluding single ventricle heart defects; critical malformations of great vessels, congenital valvular heart disease, and patent ductus arteriosus; ventricular septal defect and atrial septal defect; and other congenital heart anomalies), for 1990 through to 2017. All available global data were systematically analysed to generate congenital heart disease mortality estimates (using Cause of Death Ensemble modelling) and prevalence estimates (DisMod-MR 2·1). Systematic literature reviews of all types of congenital anomalies to capture information on prevalence, associated mortality, and long-term health outcomes on congenital heart disease informed subsequent disability estimates. Findings: Congenital heart disease caused 261 247 deaths (95% uncertainty interval 216 567–308 159) globally in 2017, a 34·5% decline from 1990, with 180 624 deaths (146 825–214 178) being among infants (aged <1 years). Congenital heart disease mortality rates declined with increasing Socio-demographic Index (SDI); most deaths occurred in countries in the low and low-middle SDI quintiles. The prevalence rates of congenital heart disease at birth changed little temporally or by SDI, resulting in 11 998 283 (10 958 658–13 123 888) people living with congenital heart disease globally, an 18·7% increase from 1990 to 2017, and causing a total of 589 479 (287 200–973 359) years lived with disability. Interpretation: Congenital heart disease is a large, rapidly emerging global problem in child health. Without the ability to substantially alter the prevalence of congenital heart disease, interventions and resources must be used to improve survival and quality of life. Our findings highlight the large global inequities in congenital heart disease and can serve as a starting point for policy changes to improve screening, treatment, and data collection. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Implementation of the therapeutic use of hydroxyurea for sickle cell disease management in resource-constrained settings: A systematic review of adoption, cost and acceptability

Ryan, N., Dike, L., Ojo, T., Vieira, D., Nnodu, O., Gyamfi, J., & Peprah, E. (n.d.).

Publication year

2020

Journal title

BMJ open

Volume

Issue

10.1136/bmjopen-2020-038685

Abstract

Abstract

Objectives: Mortality associated with sickle cell disease (SCD) is high in many low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Hydroxyurea, a medicine to effectively manage SCD, is not widely available in resource-constrained settings. We identified and synthesised the reported implementation outcomes for the therapeutic use of hydroxyurea for SCD in these settings. Design: Systematic review. Data sources: PubMed, Embase, Cochrane, Web of Science Plus, Global Health, CINAHL, and PsycINFO were searched February through May 2019 without any restrictions on publication date. Eligibility criteria We included empirical studies of hydroxyurea for management of SCD that were carried out in LMICs and reported on implementation outcomes. Data extraction and synthesis: Two reviewers independently assessed studies for inclusion, carried out data extraction using Proctor et al.'s implementation and health service outcomes, and assessed the risk of bias using ROBINS-I (Risk Of Bias In Non-randomised Studies - of Interventions). Results: Two cross-sectional surveys (n=2) and one cohort study (n=1) reported implementation of hydroxyurea for SCD management, namely regarding outcomes of adoption (n=3), cost (n=3) and acceptability (n=1). These studies were conducted exclusively among paediatric and adults populations in clinical settings in Nigeria (n=2) or Jamaica (n=1). Adoption is low, as observed through reported provider practices and patient adherence, in part shaped by misinformation and fear of side effects among patients, provider beliefs regarding affordability and organisational challenges with procuring the medicine. There was no difference in the cost of hydroxyurea therapy compared with blood transfusion in the paediatric population in urban Jamaica. Risk of bias was low or moderate across the included studies. Conclusions: This review rigorously and systematically assessed the evidence on implementation of hydroxyurea in resource-constrained settings such as LMICs. Findings suggest that knowledge regarding implementation is low. To address the know-do gap and guide clinical practice, implementation research is needed. Integrating effective interventions into existing health systems to improve hydroxyurea uptake is essential to reducing SCD-associated mortality.

Implementation outcomes of policy and programme innovations to prevent obstetric haemorrhage in low-and middle-income countries: A systematic review

Ryan, N., Vieira, D., Goffman, D., Bloch, E. M., Akaba, G. O., D’Mello, B. S., Egekeze, C., Snyder, A., Lyimo, M., Nnodu, O., & Peprah, E. (n.d.).

Publication year

2020

Journal title

Health Policy and Planning

Volume

Issue

Page(s)

1208-1227

10.1093/heapol/czaa074

Abstract

Abstract

Globally, obstetric haemorrhage (OH) remains the leading cause of maternal mortality. Much of the associated mortality is ascribed to challenges surrounding deployment of innovations rather than lack of availability. In low-and middle-income countries (LMICs), where the burden is highest, there is a growing interest in implementation research as a means to bridge the 'know-do' gap between proven interventions and their reliable implementation at scale. In this systematic review, we identified and synthesized qualitative and quantitative data across the implementation outcomes of OH prevention innovations in LMICs using a taxonomy developed by Proctor et al. We also identified service outcomes for the included innovations, as well as implementation strategies and implementation facilitators and barriers. Eligible studies were empirical, focused on the implementation of OH prevention programmes or policies and occurred in an LMIC. Eight databases were searched. Two authors independently assessed studies for selection and extracted data; the first author resolved discrepancies. Narrative synthesis was used to analyse and interpret the findings. Studies were predominantly focused in Africa and on primary prevention. Interventions included prophylactic use of uterotonics (n = 7), clinical provider skills training (n = 4) and provision of clinical guidelines (n = 1); some (n = 3) were also part of a multi-component quality improvement bundle. Various barriers were reported, including challenges among intervention beneficiaries, providers and within the health system; however, studies reported the development and testing of practical implementation solutions. These included training and monitoring of implementers, community and stakeholder engagement and guidance by external mentors. Some studies linked successful delivery to implementation outcomes, most commonly adoption and acceptability, but also feasibility, penetration and sustainability. Findings suggest that innovations to prevent OH can be acceptable, appropriate and feasible in LMIC settings; however, more research is needed to better evaluate these and other under-reported implementation outcomes.

Measuring universal health coverage based on an index of effective coverage of health services in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Lozano, R., Fullman, N., Mumford, J. E., Knight, M., Barthelemy, C. M., Abbafati, C., Abbastabar, H., Abd-Allah, F., Abdollahi, M., Abedi, A., Abolhassani, H., Abosetugn, A. E., Abreu, L. G., Abrigo, M. R., Abu Haimed, A. K., Abushouk, A. I., Adabi, M., Adebayo, O. M., Adekanmbi, V., … Murray, C. J. (n.d.).

Publication year

2020

Journal title

The Lancet

Volume

396

Issue

10258

Page(s)

1250-1284

10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30750-9

Abstract

Abstract

Background: Achieving universal health coverage (UHC) involves all people receiving the health services they need, of high quality, without experiencing financial hardship. Making progress towards UHC is a policy priority for both countries and global institutions, as highlighted by the agenda of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and WHO's Thirteenth General Programme of Work (GPW13). Measuring effective coverage at the health-system level is important for understanding whether health services are aligned with countries' health profiles and are of sufficient quality to produce health gains for populations of all ages. Methods: Based on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we assessed UHC effective coverage for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2019. Drawing from a measurement framework developed through WHO's GPW13 consultation, we mapped 23 effective coverage indicators to a matrix representing health service types (eg, promotion, prevention, and treatment) and five population-age groups spanning from reproductive and newborn to older adults (≥65 years). Effective coverage indicators were based on intervention coverage or outcome-based measures such as mortality-to-incidence ratios to approximate access to quality care; outcome-based measures were transformed to values on a scale of 0–100 based on the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile of location-year values. We constructed the UHC effective coverage index by weighting each effective coverage indicator relative to its associated potential health gains, as measured by disability-adjusted life-years for each location-year and population-age group. For three tests of validity (content, known-groups, and convergent), UHC effective coverage index performance was generally better than that of other UHC service coverage indices from WHO (ie, the current metric for SDG indicator 3.8.1 on UHC service coverage), the World Bank, and GBD 2017. We quantified frontiers of UHC effective coverage performance on the basis of pooled health spending per capita, representing UHC effective coverage index levels achieved in 2019 relative to country-level government health spending, prepaid private expenditures, and development assistance for health. To assess current trajectories towards the GPW13 UHC billion target—1 billion more people benefiting from UHC by 2023—we estimated additional population equivalents with UHC effective coverage from 2018 to 2023. Findings: Globally, performance on the UHC effective coverage index improved from 45·8 (95% uncertainty interval 44·2–47·5) in 1990 to 60·3 (58·7–61·9) in 2019, yet country-level UHC effective coverage in 2019 still spanned from 95 or higher in Japan and Iceland to lower than 25 in Somalia and the Central African Republic. Since 2010, sub-Saharan Africa showed accelerated gains on the UHC effective coverage index (at an average increase of 2·6% [1·9–3·3] per year up to 2019); by contrast, most other GBD super-regions had slowed rates of progress in 2010–2019 relative to 1990–2010. Many countries showed lagging performance on effective coverage indicators for non-communicable diseases relative to those for communicable diseases and maternal and child health, despite non-communicable diseases accounting for a greater proportion of potential health gains in 2019, suggesting that many health systems are not keeping pace with the rising non-communicable disease burden and associated population health needs. In 2019, the UHC effective coverage index was associated with pooled health spending per capita (r=0·79), although countries across the development spectrum had much lower UHC effective coverage than is potentially achievable relative to their health spending. Under maximum efficiency of translating health spending into UHC effective coverage performance, countries would need to reach $1398 pooled health spending per capita (US$ adjusted for purchasing power parity) in order to achieve 80 on the UHC effective coverage index. From 2018 to 2023, an estimated 388·9 million (358·6–421·3) more population equivalents would have UHC effective coverage, falling well short of the GPW13 target of 1 billion more people benefiting from UHC during this time. Current projections point to an estimated 3·1 billion (3·0–3·2) population equivalents still lacking UHC effective coverage in 2023, with nearly a third (968·1 million [903·5–1040·3]) residing in south Asia. Interpretation: The present study demonstrates the utility of measuring effective coverage and its role in supporting improved health outcomes for all people—the ultimate goal of UHC and its achievement. Global ambitions to accelerate progress on UHC service coverage are increasingly unlikely unless concerted action on non-communicable diseases occurs and countries can better translate health spending into improved performance. Focusing on effective coverage and accounting for the world's evolving health needs lays the groundwork for better understanding how close—or how far—all populations are in benefiting from UHC. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Proactive prevention: Act now to disrupt the impending non-communicable disease crisis in low-burden populations

Njuguna, B., Fletcher, S. L., Akwanalo, C., Asante, K. P., Baumann, A., Brown, A., Davila-Roman, V. G., Dickhaus, J., Fort, M., Iwelunmor, J., Irazola, V., Mohan, S., Mutabazi, V., Newsome, B., Ogedegbe, O., Pastakia, S. D., Peprah, E. K., Plange-Rhule, J., Roth, G., … Vedanthan, R. (n.d.).

Publication year

2020

Journal title

PloS one

Volume

Issue

10.1371/journal.pone.0243004

Abstract

Abstract

Non-communicable disease (NCD) prevention efforts have traditionally targeted high-risk and high-burden populations. We propose an alteration in prevention efforts to also include emphasis and focus on low-risk populations, predominantly younger individuals and low-prevalence populations. We refer to this approach as “proactive prevention.” This emphasis is based on the priority to put in place policies, programs, and infrastructure that can disrupt the epidemiological transition to develop NCDs among these groups, thereby averting future NCD crises. Proactive prevention strategies can be classified, and their implementation prioritized, based on a 2-dimensional assessment: impact and feasibility. Thus, potential interventions can be categorized into a 2-by-2 matrix: high impact/high feasibility, high impact/ low feasibility, low impact/high feasibility, and low impact/low feasibility. We propose that high impact/high feasibility interventions are ready to be implemented (act), while high impact/low feasibility interventions require efforts to foster buy-in first. Low impact/high feasibility interventions need to be changed to improve their impact while low impact/low feasibility might be best re-designed in the context of limited resources. Using this framework, policy makers, public health experts, and other stakeholders can more effectively prioritize and leverage limited resources in an effort to slow or prevent the evolving global NCD crisis.

Regional Patterns and Association Between Obesity and Hypertension in Africa: Evidence From the H3Africa CHAIR Study

Akpa, O. M., Made, F., Ojo, A., Ovbiagele, B., Adu, D., Motala, A. A., Mayosi, B. M., Adebamowo, S. N., Engel, M. E., Tayo, B., Rotimi, C., Salako, B., Akinyemi, R., Gebregziabher, M., Sarfo, F., Wahab, K., Agongo, G., Alberts, M., Ali, S. A., … Owolabi, M. O. (n.d.).

Publication year

2020

Journal title

Hypertension

Volume

Issue

Page(s)

1167-1178

10.1161/HYPERTENSIONAHA.119.14147

Page(s)

e831-e859

10.1016/S2352-3018(19)30196-1

Abstract

Abstract

BACKGROUND: Understanding the patterns of HIV/AIDS epidemics is crucial to tracking and monitoring the progress of prevention and control efforts in countries. We provide a comprehensive assessment of the levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, mortality, and coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART) for 1980-2017 and forecast these estimates to 2030 for 195 countries and territories.METHODS: We determined a modelling strategy for each country on the basis of the availability and quality of data. For countries and territories with data from population-based seroprevalence surveys or antenatal care clinics, we estimated prevalence and incidence using an open-source version of the Estimation and Projection Package-a natural history model originally developed by the UNAIDS Reference Group on Estimates, Modelling, and Projections. For countries with cause-specific vital registration data, we corrected data for garbage coding (ie, deaths coded to an intermediate, immediate, or poorly defined cause) and HIV misclassification. We developed a process of cohort incidence bias adjustment to use information on survival and deaths recorded in vital registration to back-calculate HIV incidence. For countries without any representative data on HIV, we produced incidence estimates by pulling information from observed bias in the geographical region. We used a re-coded version of the Spectrum model (a cohort component model that uses rates of disease progression and HIV mortality on and off ART) to produce age-sex-specific incidence, prevalence, and mortality, and treatment coverage results for all countries, and forecast these measures to 2030 using Spectrum with inputs that were extended on the basis of past trends in treatment scale-up and new infections.FINDINGS: Global HIV mortality peaked in 2006 with 1·95 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval 1·87-2·04) and has since decreased to 0·95 million deaths (0·91-1·01) in 2017. New cases of HIV globally peaked in 1999 (3·16 million, 2·79-3·67) and since then have gradually decreased to 1·94 million (1·63-2·29) in 2017. These trends, along with ART scale-up, have globally resulted in increased prevalence, with 36·8 million (34·8-39·2) people living with HIV in 2017. Prevalence of HIV was highest in southern sub-Saharan Africa in 2017, and countries in the region had ART coverage ranging from 65·7% in Lesotho to 85·7% in eSwatini. Our forecasts showed that 54 countries will meet the UNAIDS target of 81% ART coverage by 2020 and 12 countries are on track to meet 90% ART coverage by 2030. Forecasted results estimate that few countries will meet the UNAIDS 2020 and 2030 mortality and incidence targets.INTERPRETATION: Despite progress in reducing HIV-related mortality over the past decade, slow decreases in incidence, combined with the current context of stagnated funding for related interventions, mean that many countries are not on track to reach the 2020 and 2030 global targets for reduction in incidence and mortality. With a growing population of people living with HIV, it will continue to be a major threat to public health for years to come. The pace of progress needs to be hastened by continuing to expand access to ART and increasing investments in proven HIV prevention initiatives that can be scaled up to have population-level impact.FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, National Institute of Mental Health of the US National Institutes of Health (NIH), and the National Institute on Aging of the NIH.

Addressing gaps in international blood availability and transfusion safety in low-and middle-income countries: A nhlbi workshop

Custer, B., Zou, S., Glynn, S. A., Makani, J., Tagny, C. T., Ekiaby, M. E., Sabino, E. C., Choudhury, N., Teo, D., Nelson, K., Peprah, E., Price, L., & Engelgau, M. M. (n.d.).

Publication year

2018

Journal title

Transfusion

Volume

Issue

Page(s)

1307-1317

10.1111/trf.14598

Abstract

Abstract

In April 2017, a workshop sponsored by the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, Division of Blood Diseases and Resources, and the Center for Translation Research and Implementation Science was held to discuss blood availability and transfusion safety in lowand middle-income countries (LMICs). The purpose of the workshop was to identify research opportunities for implementation science (IS) to improve the availability of safe blood and blood components and transfusion practices in LMICs. IS describes the late stages of the translational research spectrum and studies optimal and sustainable strategies to deliver proven-effective interventions. Regional working groups were formed to focus on opportunities and challenges in East Africa, Central/West Africa, Middle East and North Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean, Southeast Asia, Western Pacific Asia, Eastern Europe, and Central Asia. The need for an “adequate supply of safe blood” emerged as the major overriding theme. Among the regional working groups, common cross-cutting themes were evident. The majority of research questions, priorities, and strategies fell into the categories of blood availability, blood transfusion safety, appropriate use of blood, quality systems, health economics and budgeting, and training and education in IS. The workshop also brought into focus inadequate country-level data that can be used as the basis for IS initiatives. A mixed approach of needs assessment and targeted interventions with sufficient evidence base to move toward sustainment is an appropriate next step for blood availability and transfusion safety research in LMICs.

Building on the HIV chronic care platform to address noncommunicable diseases in sub-Saharan Africa: A research agenda

Vorkoper, S., Kupfer, L. E., Anand, N., Patel, P., Beecroft, B., Tierney, W. M., Ferris, R., El-Sadr, W. M., Bacon, M., Berman, J., Berzon, R., Bongomin, P., Bremer, A., Castor, D., Collins, P., Dirks, R., Dominguez, G., Ejigu, A. A., Engelgau, M., … Yonga, G. (n.d.).

Publication year

2018

Journal title

AIDS

Volume

Page(s)

S107-S113

10.1097/QAD.0000000000001898

Abstract

Abstract

Objective: The remarkable progress made in confronting the global HIV epidemic offers a unique opportunity to address the increasing threat of noncommunicable diseases (NCDs). However, questions remain about how to enhance the HIV platforms to deliver integrated HIV and NCD care to people living with HIV (PLHIV) in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). We aimed to develop a priority research agenda to advance this effort. Methods: Researchers, policymakers, and implementers from the United States and SSA conducted three scoping reviews on HIV/NCD prevention and care focused on clinical, health system, and community levels. Based on the review findings and expert inputs, we conducted iterative consensus-development activities to generate a prioritized research agenda. Results: Population-level data on NCD prevalence among PLHIV in SSA are sparse. The review identified NCD screening and management approaches that could be integrated into HIV programs in SSA. However, few studies focused on the effectiveness, cost, and best practices for integrated chronic care platforms, making it difficult to derive policy recommendations. To address these gaps, we propose a prioritized research agenda focused on developing evidence-based service delivery models, increasing human capacity through workforce education, generating data through informatics platforms and research, managing the medication supply chain, developing new financing and sustainability models, advancing research-informed policy, and addressing other crosscutting health system issues. Conclusion: Based on collaborative, interdisciplinary efforts, a research agenda was developed to provide guidance that advances efforts to adapt the current health system to deliver integrated chronic care for PLHIV and the population at large.

Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality and life expectancy, 1950-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Abstract

Abstract

Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Noncommunicable diseases among HIV-infected persons in low-income and middle-income countries: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Patel, P., Rose, C. E., Collins, P. Y., Nuche-Berenguer, B., Sahasrabuddhe, V. V., Peprah, E., Vorkoper, S., Pastakia, S. D., Rausch, D., & Levitt, N. S. (n.d.).

Publication year

2018

Journal title

AIDS

Volume

Page(s)

S5-S20

10.1097/QAD.0000000000001888

Abstract

Abstract

Objective: To appropriately identify and treat noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) among persons living with HIV (PLHIV) in low-and-middle-income countries (LMICs), it is imperative to understand the burden of NCDs among PLHIV in LMICs and the current management of the diseases. Design: Systematic review and meta-analysis. Methods: We examined peer-reviewed literature published between 1 January 2010 and 31 December 2016 to assess currently available evidence regarding HIV and four selected NCDs (cardiovascular disease, cervical cancer, depression, and diabetes) in LMICs with a focus on sub-Saharan Africa. The databases, PubMed/MEDLINE, Cochrane Review, and Scopus, were searched to identify relevant literature. For conditions with adequate data available, pooled estimates for prevalence were generated using random fixed effects models. Results: Six thousand one hundred and forty-three abstracts were reviewed, 377 had potentially relevant prevalence data and 141 were included in the summary; 57 were selected for quantitative analysis. Pooled estimates for NCD prevalence were hypertension 21.2% (95% CI 16.3-27.1), hypercholesterolemia 22.2% (95% CI 14.7-32.1), elevated low-density lipoprotein 23.2% (95% CI 15.2-33.6), hypertriglyceridemia 27.2% (95% CI 20.7-34.8), low high-density lipoprotein 52.3% (95% CI 35.6-62.8), obesity 7.8% (95% CI 4.3-13.9), and depression 24.4% (95% CI 12.5-42.1). Invasive cervical cancer and diabetes prevalence were 1.3-1.7 and 1.3-18%, respectively. Few NCD-HIV integrated programs with screening and management approaches that are contextually appropriate for resource-limited settings exist. Conclusion: Improved data collection and surveillance of NCDs among PLHIV in LMICs are necessary to inform integrated HIV/NCD care models. Although efforts to integrate care exist, further research is needed to optimize the efficacy of these programs.

Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

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Publication year

2018

Journal title

The Lancet

Volume

392

Issue

10159

Page(s)

1995-2051

10.1016/S0140-6736(18)32278-5

Abstract

Abstract

Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

A New Age for African-Driven Genomics Research: Human Heredity and Health in Africa (H3Africa)

Peprah, E., Wiley, K., Sampson, U., & Narula, J. (n.d.).

Publication year

2017

Journal title

Global Heart

Volume

Issue

Page(s)

Abstract

The National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (NHLBI) AIDS Program's goal is to provide direction and support for research and training programs in areas of HIV-related heart, lung, blood, and sleep (HLBS) diseases. To better define NHLBI current HIV-related scientific priorities and with the goal of identifying new scientific priorities and gaps in HIV-related HLBS research, a wide group of investigators gathered for a scientific NHLBI HIV Working Group on December 14-15, 2015, in Bethesda, MD. The core objectives of the Working Group included discussions on: (1) HIV-related HLBS comorbidities in the antiretroviral era; (2) HIV cure; (3) HIV prevention; and (4) mechanisms to implement new scientific discoveries in an efficient and timely manner so as to have the most impact on people living with HIV. The 2015 Working Group represented an opportunity for the NHLBI to obtain expert advice on HIV/AIDS scientific priorities and approaches over the next decade.

Emmanuel Peprah

Emmanuel Peprah

Associate Professor of Global and Environmental Health

Professional overview

Education

Honors and awards

Areas of research and study

Publications

Publications

Global burden of 87 risk factors in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

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Global, regional, and national burden of congenital heart disease, 1990–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

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Implementation of the therapeutic use of hydroxyurea for sickle cell disease management in resource-constrained settings: A systematic review of adoption, cost and acceptability

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Implementation outcomes of policy and programme innovations to prevent obstetric haemorrhage in low-and middle-income countries: A systematic review

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Measuring universal health coverage based on an index of effective coverage of health services in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

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Proactive prevention: Act now to disrupt the impending non-communicable disease crisis in low-burden populations

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Regional Patterns and Association Between Obesity and Hypertension in Africa: Evidence From the H3Africa CHAIR Study

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Assessing Stakeholder Engagement for Translation Research and Implementation Science in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: Lessons From Ghana, Guatemala, India, Kenya, Malawi, Nepal, Rwanda, and Vietnam

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Data resource profile: Cardiovascular H3Africa innovation resource (Chair)

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Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980-2017, and forecasts to 2030, for 195 countries and territories: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017

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Addressing gaps in international blood availability and transfusion safety in low-and middle-income countries: A nhlbi workshop

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Building on the HIV chronic care platform to address noncommunicable diseases in sub-Saharan Africa: A research agenda

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Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality and life expectancy, 1950-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

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