Joshua Epstein

Professor of Epidemiology

Professional overview

Joshua Epstein is Professor of Epidemiology in the NYU School of Global Public Health, and founding Director of the NYU Agent-Based Modeling Laboratory, with affiliated appointments at The Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences, and the College of Arts & Sciences. Prior to joining NYU, he was Professor of Emergency Medicine at Johns Hopkins, and Director of the Center for Advanced Modeling in the Social, Behavior, and Health Sciences, with Joint appointments in Economics, Applied Mathematics, International Health, and Biostatistics. Before that, he was  Senior Fellow in Economic Studies at the Brookings Institution and Director of the Center on Social and Economic Dynamics. His research interest has been modeling complex social dynamics using mathematical and computational methods, notably the method of Agent-Based Modeling in which he is a recognized pioneer. For this transformative innovation, he was awarded the NIH Director’s Pioneer Award in 2008, an Honorary Doctorate of Science from Amherst College in 2010, and was elected to the Society of Sigma XI in 2018. He has applied this method to the study of infectious diseases (e.g., Ebola, pandemic influenza, and smallpox), vector-borne diseases (e.g., zika), urban disaster preparedness, contagious violence, the evolution of norms, economic dynamics, computational archaeology, and the emergence of social classes, among many other topics. His books include Nonlinear Dynamics, Mathematical Biology, and Social Science (Wiley 1997), Generative Social Science: Studies in Agent-Based Computational Modeling (Princeton, 2006), Agent_Zero: Toward Neurocognitive Foundations for Generative Social Science (Princeton, 2013), and with Robert Axtell, Growing Artificial Societies: Social Science from the Bottom Up (MIT, 1996). Dr. Epstein earned his BA from Amherst College and his Ph.D. from The Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

Education

BA, Independent Scholar with Thesis in Political Economy, Amherst College, Amherst, MA

PhD, Political Science (Specialization: Security Studies, Communist Studies, and Economics), Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA

Honors and awards

Honorary Doctorate of Science, Amherst College (2010)

Director’s Pioneer Award, National Institutes of Health (2008)

Rockefeller Foundation International Relations Fellowship (1984)

Council on Foreign Relations International Affairs Fellowship (1983)

Ford Foundation Dual Expertise Fellowship in Soviet/East European Area Studies and International Security/Arms Control (1981)

Institute for the Study of World Politics Fellowship (1981)

Areas of research and study

Agent-Based Modeling

Applied Economics

Cost Analysis

Disaster Health

Epidemiology

Health Economics

Infectious Diseases

Mathematical and Computational Modeling

Modeling Social and Behavioral Dynamics

New York Department of Health and Mental Hygiene

Public Health Systems

Urban Health

Urban Informatics

Urban Science

Presentations

Agent Zero and Generative Social Science

Agent Zero and Integrative Economics

Publications

Publications

Modelli computazionali fondati su agenti e scienza sociale generativa

Epstein, J. M. (n.d.).

Publication year

2000

Journal title

Sistemi Intelligenti

Volume

12

Issue

2

Page(s)

177-221

10.1422/3538

Understanding Anasazi Culture Change Through Agent-Based Modeling

Epstein, J., Dean, J., Gumerman, G., & Axtell, R. (n.d.). In G. J. Gumerman & T. Kohler (Eds.), Dynamics in Human and Primate Societies: Agent-Based Modeling of Social and Spatial Processes (1–).

Publication year

2000

Page(s)

179-206

Agent-Based Computational Models and Generative Social Science

Epstein, J. (n.d.).

Publication year

1999

Journal title

Complexity

Volume

4

Issue

5

Page(s)

41-60

Agent-based computational models and generative social science

Epstein, J. M. (n.d.).

Publication year

1999

Journal title

Complexity

Volume

4

Issue

5

Page(s)

41-60

10.1002/(SICI)1099-0526(199905/06)4:5<41::AID-CPLX9>3.0.CO;2-F

Abstract

Abstract

This article argues that the agent-based computational model permits a distinctive approach to social science for which the term “generative” is suitable. In defending this terminology, features distinguishing the approach from both “inductive” and “deductive” science are given. Then, the following specific contributions to social science are discussed: The agent-based computational model is a new tool for empirical research. It offers a natural environment for the study of connectionist phenomena in social science. Agent-based modeling provides a powerful way to address certain enduring—and especially interdisciplinary—questions. It allows one to subject certain core theories—such as neoclassical microeconomics—to important types of stress (e.g., the effect of evolving preferences). It permits one to study how rules of individual behavior give rise—or “map up”—to macroscopic regularities and organizations. In turn, one can employ laboratory behavioral research findings to select among competing agent-based (“bottom up”) models. The agent-based approach may well have the important effect of decoupling individual rationality from macroscopic equilibrium and of separating decision science from social science more generally. Agent-based modeling offers powerful new forms of hybrid theoretical-computational work; these are particularly relevant to the study of non-equilibrium systems. The agent-based approach invites the interpretation of society as a distributed computational device, and in turn the interpretation of social dynamics as a type of computation. This interpretation raises important foundational issues in social science—some related to intractability, and some to undecidability proper. Finally, since “emergence” figures prominently in this literature, I take up the connection between agent-based modeling and classical emergentism, criticizing the latter and arguing that the two are incompatible.

Coordination in Transient Social Networks: An Agent-Based Computational Model of the Timing of Retirement

Epstein, J., & Axtell, R. (n.d.). In H. Aaron (Ed.), Behavioral Dimensions of Retirement Economics (1–).

Publication year

1999

Page(s)

161-186

Zones of cooperation in demographic prisoner’s dilemma

Epstein, J. M. (n.d.).

Publication year

1998

Journal title

Complexity

Volume

4

Issue

2

Page(s)

36-48

10.1002/(SICI)1099-0526(199811/12)4:2<36::AID-CPLX9>3.0.CO;2-Z

Abstract

Abstract

The emergence of cooperation in prisoner’s dilemma (PD) games is generally assumed to require repeated play (and strategies such as Tit for Tat, involving memory of previous interactions) or features (“tags”) permitting cooperators and defectors to distinguish one another. In the demographic PD, neither assumption is made: Agents with finite vision move to random sites on a lattice and play a fixed culturally-inherited zero-memory strategy of cooperate (C) or defect (D) against neighbors. Agents are indistinguishable to one another—they are “tagless.” Positive payoffs accrue to agents playing C against C, or D against C. Negative payoffs accrue to agents playing C against D, or D against D. Payoffs accumulate. If accumulated payoffs exceed some threshold, agents clone offspring of the same strategy onto neighboring sites and continue play. If accumulated payoffs are negative, agents die and are removed. Spatial zones of cooperation emerge.

Aligning Simulation Models: A Case Study and Results

Axtell, R., Axelrod, R., Cohen, M., & Epstein, J. (n.d.).

Publication year

1996

Journal title

Computational and Mathematical Organization Theory

Volume

1

Issue

2

Page(s)

123-141

Growing Artificial Societies: Social Science from the Bottom Up

Epstein, J., & Axtell, R. L. (n.d.). (1–).

Publication year

1996

Agent-Based Modeling: Understanding Our Creations

Axtell, R., & Epstein, J. (n.d.).

Publication year

1994

Journal title

The Bulletin of the Santa Fe Institute

Volume

9

Issue

4

Page(s)

28-32

On the Mathematical Biology of Arms Races, Wars, and Revolutions

Epstein, J. (n.d.). In L. Nadel & D. L. Stein (Eds.), 1992 Lectures in Complex Systems (1–).

Publication year

1994

The Adaptive Dynamic Model of War

Epstein, J. (n.d.). In L. Nadel & D. L. Stein (Eds.), 1992 Lectures in Complex Systems (1–).

Publication year

1994

War With Iraq: What Price Victory?

Epstein, J. (n.d.).

Publication year

1991

Journal title

Brookings Discussion Papers

Controlling the Greenhouse Effect: Five Global Regimes Compared

Epstein, J., & Gupta, R. (n.d.). (1–).

Publication year

1990

Conventional Force Reductions: A Dynamic Assessment

Epstein, J. (n.d.). (1–).

Publication year

1990

The 3:1 Rule, the Adaptive Dynamic Model, and the Future of Security Studies

Epstein, J. (n.d.).

Publication year

1989

Journal title

International Security

Volume

13

Issue

4

Page(s)

90-127

Dynamic Analysis and the Conventional Balance in Europe

Epstein, J. (n.d.).

Publication year

1988

Journal title

International Security

Volume

12

Issue

4

Page(s)

154-65

Strategy and Force Planning: The Case of the Persian Gulf

Epstein, J. (n.d.). (1–).

Publication year

1987

Assessing the Military Balance: Defense Analysis and the Defense Debate

Epstein, J. (n.d.).

Publication year

1985

Journal title

The Brookings Review

Volume

3

Issue

3

Page(s)

16-20

The 1987 Defense Budget

Epstein, J. (n.d.). (1–).

Publication year

1985

The 1988 Defense Budget

Epstein, J. (n.d.). (1–).

Publication year

1985

The Calculus of Conventional War: Dynamic Analysis Without Lanchester Theory

Epstein, J. (n.d.). (1–).

Publication year

1985

Measuring Military Power

Epstein, J. (n.d.). (1–).

Publication year

1984

Horizontal Escalation: Sour Notes of a Recurrent Theme

Epstein, J. (n.d.). In R. Art & K. Waltz (Eds.), The Use of Force (1–).

Publication year

1983

Page(s)

541-552

On Conventional Deterrence in Europe: Questions of Soviet Confidence

Epstein, J. (n.d.).

Publication year

1982

Journal title

Orbis

Volume

26

Issue

1

Page(s)

71-86

Soviet Vulnerabilities in Iran and the RDF Deterrent

Epstein, J. (n.d.).

Publication year

1981

Journal title

International Security

Volume

6

Issue

2

Page(s)

126-59