Mark Jit
Mark Jit
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Chair and Professor of the Department of Global and Environmental Health
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Professional overview
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Mark Jit is the inaugural chair and a professor in the Department of Global and Environmental Health. He was formerly head of the Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology & Dynamics and co-director of the Global Health Economics Centre (GHECO) at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM). He holds honorary appointments at LSHTM as well as the University of Hong Kong (HKU) and the National University of Singapore (NUS).
Dr. Jit’s research focuses on epidemiological and economic modeling of vaccines to support evidence-based public health decision making. He has published papers covering a range of vaccine-preventable or potentially vaccine-preventable diseases including COVID-19, measles, HPV, pneumococcus, rotavirus, influenza, Group B Streptococcus, dengue, EV71 and RSV as well as methodological papers advancing the ways vaccines are evaluated. This work has influenced many of the major changes to immunization policy in countries around the world. Dr. Jit has served on a number of expert advisory committees in the UK as well as for international organizations such as the World Health Organization. He also organises or contributes to academic and professional courses on vaccine modeling, economics and decision science around the world.
Dr. Jit received his BSc and PhD in Mathematics from University College London, specializing in mathematical biology, and a Master of Public Health degree from King’s College London.
Visit Dr. Jit's Google Scholar's page to learn more about his research portfolio.
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Education
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BSc, Mathematics, University College LondonPhD, Mathematics, University College LondonMPH, Public Health, King's College London
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Honors and awards
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Clarivate Highly Cited Researcher (20222023)Fellow of the Academy of Medical Sciences (2023)Training Fund Award, Health Protection Agency (2007)Andrew Rosen Prize, University College London (1999)Institute of Mathematics and its Applications Award (1998)Departmental Research Studentship, University College London (1998)Student Union Commendation, University College London (1997)Fillon Prize, University College London (1996)Pathfinder Award, University College London (1995)
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Publications
Publications
Cost-Effectiveness of Respiratory Syncytial Virus Preventive Interventions in Children: A Model Comparison Study
Failed generating bibliography.AbstractPublication year
2023Journal title
Value in HealthVolume
26Issue
4Page(s)
508-518AbstractObjectives: Model-based cost-effectiveness analyses on maternal vaccine (MV) and monoclonal antibody (mAb) interventions against respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) use context-specific data and produce varied results. Through model comparison, we aim to characterize RSV cost-effectiveness models and examine drivers for their outputs. Methods: We compared 3 static and 2 dynamic models using a common input parameter set for a hypothetical birth cohort of 100 000 infants. Year-round and seasonal programs were evaluated for MV and mAb interventions, using available evidence during the study period (eg, phase III MV and phase IIb mAb efficacy). Results: Three static models estimated comparable medically attended (MA) cases averted versus no intervention (MV, 1019-1073; mAb, 5075-5487), with the year-round MV directly saving ∼€1 million medical and €0.3 million nonmedical costs, while gaining 4 to 5 discounted quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) annually in <1-year-olds, and mAb resulting in €4 million medical and €1.5 million nonmedical cost savings, and 21 to 25 discounted QALYs gained. In contrast, both dynamic models estimated fewer MA cases averted (MV, 402-752; mAb, 3362-4622); one showed an age shift of RSV cases, whereas the other one reported many non-MA symptomatic cases averted, especially by MV (2014). These differences can be explained by model types, assumptions on non-MA burden, and interventions’ effectiveness over time. Conclusions: Our static and dynamic models produced overall similar hospitalization and death estimates, but also important differences, especially in non-MA cases averted. Despite the small QALY decrement per non-MA case, their larger number makes them influential for the costs per QALY gained of RSV interventions.Estimating global and regional between-country inequality in routine childhood vaccine coverage in 195 countries and territories from 2019 to 2021: a longitudinal study
AbstractLai, X., Zhang, H., Pouwels, K. B., Patenaude, B., Jit, M., & Fang, H. (n.d.).Publication year
2023Journal title
EClinicalMedicineVolume
60AbstractBackground: Global routine childhood vaccine coverage has plateaued in recent years, and the COVID-19 pandemic further disrupted immunisation services. We estimated global and regional inequality of routine childhood vaccine coverage from 2019 to 2021, particularly assessing the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: We used longitudinal data for 11 routine childhood vaccines from the WHO-UNICEF Estimates of National Immunization Coverage (WUENIC), including 195 countries and territories in 2019–2021. The slope index of inequality (SII) and relative index of inequality (RII) of each vaccine were calculated through linear regression to express the difference in coverage between the top and bottom 20% of countries at the global and regional levels. We also explored inequalities of routine childhood vaccine coverage by WHO regions and unvaccinated children by income groups. Findings: Globally between January 1, 2019 and December 31, 2021, most childhood vaccines showed a declining trend in coverage, and therefore an increasing number of unvaccinated children, especially in low-income and lower-middle-income countries. Between-country inequalities existed for all 11 routine childhood vaccine coverage indicators. The SII for the third dose of diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis-containing vaccine (DTP3) coverage was 20.1 percentage points (95% confidence interval: 13.7, 26.5) in 2019, and rose to 23.6 (17.5, 30.0) in 2020 and 26.9 (20.0, 33.8) in 2021. Similar patterns were found for RII results and in other routine vaccines. In 2021, the second dose of measles-containing vaccine (MCV2) coverage had the highest global absolute inequality (31.2, [21.5–40.8]), and completed rotavirus vaccine (RotaC) coverage had the lowest (7.8, [–3.9, 19.5]). Among six WHO regions, the European Region consistently had the lowest inequalities, and the Western Pacific Region had the largest inequalities for many indicators, although both increased from 2019 to 2021. Interpretation: Global and regional inequalities of routine childhood vaccine coverage persisted and substantially increased from 2019 to 2021. These findings reveal economic-related inequalities by vaccines, regions, and countries, and underscore the importance of reducing such inequalities. These inequalities were widened during the COVID-19 pandemic, resulting in even lower coverage and more unvaccinated children in low-income countries. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.Estimating national-level measles case–fatality ratios in low-income and middle-income countries: an updated systematic review and modelling study
AbstractSbarra, A. N., Mosser, J. F., Jit, M., Ferrari, M., Ramshaw, R. E., O’Connor, P., Krause, L. K., Rogowski, E. L., & Portnoy, A. (n.d.).Publication year
2023Journal title
The Lancet Global HealthVolume
11Issue
4Page(s)
e516-e524AbstractBackground: To understand the current measles mortality burden, and to mitigate the future burden, it is crucial to have robust estimates of measles case fatalities. Estimates of measles case–fatality ratios (CFRs) that are specific to age, location, and time are essential to capture variations in underlying population-level factors, such as vaccination coverage and measles incidence, which contribute to increases or decreases in CFRs. In this study, we updated estimates of measles CFRs by expanding upon previous systematic reviews and implementing a meta-regression model. Our objective was to use all information available to estimate measles CFRs in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) by country, age, and year. Methods: For this systematic review and meta-regression modelling study, we searched PubMed on Dec 31, 2020 for all available primary data published from Jan 1, 1980 to Dec 31, 2020, on measles cases and fatalities occurring up to Dec 31, 2019 in LMICs. We included studies that previous systematic reviews had included or which contained primary data on measles cases and deaths from hospital-based, community-based, or surveillance-based reports, including outbreak investigations. We excluded studies that were not in humans, or reported only data that were only non-primary, or on restricted populations (eg, people living with HIV), or on long-term measles mortality (eg, death from subacute sclerosing panencephalitis), and studies that did not include country-level data or relevant information on measles cases and deaths, or were for a high-income country. We extracted summary data on measles cases and measles deaths from studies that fitted our inclusion and exclusion criteria. Using these data and a suite of covariates related to measles CFRs, we implemented a Bayesian meta-regression model to produce estimates of measles CFRs from 1990 to 2019 by location and age group. This study was not registered with PROSPERO or otherwise. Findings: We identified 2705 records, of which 208 sources contained information on both measles cases and measles deaths in LMICS and were included in the review. Between 1990 and 2019, CFRs substantially decreased in both community-based and hospital-based settings, with consistent patterns across age groups. For people aged 0–34 years, we estimated a mean CFR for 2019 of 1·32% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 1·28–1·36) among community-based settings and 5·35% (5·08–5·64) among hospital-based settings. We estimated the 2019 CFR in community-based settings to be 3·03% (UI 2·89–3·16) for those younger than 1 year, 1·63% (1·58–1·68) for age 1–4 years, 0·84% (0·80–0·87) for age 5–9 years, and 0·67% (0·64–0·70) for age 10–14 years. Interpretation: Although CFRs have declined between 1990 and 2019, there are still large heterogeneities across locations and ages. One limitation of this systematic review is that we were unable to assess measles CFR among particular populations, such as refugees and internally displaced people. Our updated methodological framework and estimates could be used to evaluate the effect of measles control and vaccination programmes on reducing the preventable measles mortality burden. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation; Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance; and the US National Institutes of Health.Estimating the cost-effectiveness of maternal vaccination and monoclonal antibodies for respiratory syncytial virus in Kenya and South Africa
AbstractKoltai, M., Moyes, J., Nyawanda, B., Nyiro, J., Munywoki, P. K., Tempia, S., Li, X., Antillon, M., Bilcke, J., Flasche, S., Beutels, P., Nokes, D. J., Cohen, C., & Jit, M. (n.d.).Publication year
2023Journal title
BMC MedicineVolume
21Issue
1AbstractBackground: Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) causes a substantial burden of acute lower respiratory infection in children under 5 years, particularly in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Maternal vaccine (MV) and next-generation monoclonal antibody (mAb) candidates have been shown to reduce RSV disease in infants in phase 3 clinical trials. The cost-effectiveness of these biologics has been estimated using disease burden data from global meta-analyses, but these are sensitive to the detailed age breakdown of paediatric RSV disease, for which there have previously been limited data. Methods: We use original hospital-based incidence data from South Africa (ZAF) and Kenya (KEN) collected between 2010 and 2018 of RSV-associated acute respiratory infection (ARI), influenza-like illness (ILI), and severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) as well as deaths with monthly age-stratification, supplemented with data on healthcare-seeking behaviour and costs to the healthcare system and households. We estimated the incremental cost per DALY averted (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio or ICER) of public health interventions by MV or mAb for a plausible range of prices (5–50 USD for MV, 10–125 USD for mAb), using an adjusted version of a previously published health economic model of RSV immunisation. Results: Our data show higher disease incidence for infants younger than 6 months of age in the case of Kenya and South Africa than suggested by earlier projections from community incidence-based meta-analyses of LMIC data. Since MV and mAb provide protection for these youngest age groups, this leads to a substantially larger reduction of disease burden and, therefore, more favourable cost-effectiveness of both interventions in both countries. Using the latest efficacy data and inferred coverage levels based on antenatal care (ANC-3) coverage (KEN: 61.7%, ZAF: 75.2%), our median estimate of the reduction in RSV-associated deaths in children under 5 years in Kenya is 10.5% (95% CI: 7.9, 13.3) for MV and 13.5% (10.7, 16.4) for mAb, while in South Africa, it is 27.4% (21.6, 32.3) and 37.9% (32.3, 43.0), respectively. Starting from a dose price of 5 USD, in Kenya, net cost (for the healthcare system) per (undiscounted) DALY averted for MV is 179 (126, 267) USD, rising to 1512 (1166, 2070) USD at 30 USD per dose; for mAb, it is 684 (543, 895) USD at 20 USD per dose and 1496 (1203, 1934) USD at 40 USD per dose. In South Africa, a MV at 5 USD per dose would be net cost-saving for the healthcare system and net cost per DALY averted is still below the ZAF’s GDP per capita at 40 USD dose price (median: 2350, 95% CI: 1720, 3346). For mAb in ZAF, net cost per DALY averted is 247 (46, 510) USD at 20 USD per dose, rising to 2028 (1565, 2638) USD at 50 USD per dose and to 6481 (5364, 7959) USD at 125 USD per dose. Conclusions: Incorporation of new data indicating the disease burden is highly concentrated in the first 6 months of life in two African settings suggests that interventions against RSV disease may be more cost-effective than previously estimated.Estimating the global impact of rotavirus vaccines on child mortality
AbstractClark, A., Mahmud, S., Debellut, F., Pecenka, C., Jit, M., Perin, J., Tate, J., Soeters, H. M., Black, R. E., Santosham, M., & Sanderson, C. (n.d.).Publication year
2023Journal title
International Journal of Infectious DiseasesVolume
137Page(s)
90-97AbstractObjectives: We estimated the global impact of rotavirus vaccines on deaths among children under five years old by year. Methods: We used a proportionate outcomes model with a finely disaggregated age structure to estimate rotavirus deaths prevented by vaccination over the period 2006-2019 in 186 countries. We ran deterministic and probabilistic uncertainty analyses and compared our estimates to surveillance-based estimates in 20 countries. Results: We estimate that rotavirus vaccines prevented 139,000 under-five rotavirus deaths (95% uncertainty interval 98,000-201,000) in the period 2006-2019. In 2019 alone, rotavirus vaccines prevented 15% (95% uncertainty interval 11-21%) of under-five rotavirus deaths (0.5% of child mortality). Assuming global use of rotavirus vaccines and coverage equivalent to other co-administered vaccines could prevent 37% of under-five rotavirus deaths (1.2% of child mortality). Our estimates were sensitive to the choice of rotavirus mortality burden data and several vaccine impact modeling assumptions. The World Health Organization's recommendation to remove age restrictions in 2012 could have prevented up to 17,000 rotavirus deaths in the period 2013-2019. Our modeled estimates of rotavirus vaccine impact were broadly consistent with estimates from post-vaccination surveillance sites. Conclusion: Rotavirus vaccines have made a valuable contribution to global public health. Enhanced rotavirus mortality prevention strategies are needed in countries with high mortality in under-5-year-old children.Global impact and cost-effectiveness of one-dose versus two-dose human papillomavirus vaccination schedules: a comparative modelling analysis
AbstractPrem, K., Choi, Y. H., Bénard, Élodie, Burger, E. A., Hadley, L., Laprise, J. F., Regan, M. C., Drolet, M., Sy, S., Abbas, K., Portnoy, A., Kim, J. J., Brisson, M., & Jit, M. (n.d.).Publication year
2023Journal title
BMC MedicineVolume
21Issue
1AbstractBackground: To eliminate cervical cancer as a public health problem, the World Health Organization had recommended routine vaccination of adolescent girls with two doses of the human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine before sexual initiation. However, many countries have yet to implement HPV vaccination because of financial or logistical barriers to delivering two doses outside the infant immunisation programme. Methods: Using three independent HPV transmission models, we estimated the long-term health benefits and cost-effectiveness of one-dose versus two-dose HPV vaccination, in 188 countries, under scenarios in which one dose of the vaccine gives either a shorter duration of full protection (20 or 30 years) or lifelong protection but lower vaccine efficacy (e.g. 80%) compared to two doses. We simulated routine vaccination with the 9-valent HPV vaccine in 10-year-old girls at 80% coverage for the years 2021–2120, with a 1-year catch-up campaign up to age 14 at 80% coverage in the first year of the programme. Results: Over the years 2021–2120, one-dose vaccination at 80% coverage was projected to avert 115.2 million (range of medians: 85.1–130.4) and 146.8 million (114.1–161.6) cervical cancers assuming one dose of the vaccine confers 20 and 30 years of protection, respectively. Should one dose of the vaccine provide lifelong protection at 80% vaccine efficacy, 147.8 million (140.6–169.7) cervical cancer cases could be prevented. If protection wanes after 20 years, 65 to 889 additional girls would need to be vaccinated with the second dose to prevent one cervical cancer, depending on the epidemiological profiles of the country. Across all income groups, the threshold cost for the second dose was low: from 1.59 (0.14–3.82) USD in low-income countries to 44.83 (3.75–85.64) USD in high-income countries, assuming one dose confers 30-year protection. Conclusions: Results were consistent across the three independent models and suggest that one-dose vaccination has similar health benefits to a two-dose programme while simplifying vaccine delivery, reducing costs, and alleviating vaccine supply constraints. The second dose may become cost-effective if there is a shorter duration of protection from one dose, cheaper vaccine and vaccination delivery strategies, and high burden of cervical cancer.Health and economic impact of delaying large-scale HPV vaccination and screening implementation on cervical cancer in China: a modelling study
AbstractGao, M., Hu, S., Zhao, X., You, T., Jit, M., Liu, Y., Qiao, Y., Zhao, F., & Wang, C. (n.d.).Publication year
2023Journal title
The Lancet Regional Health - Western PacificVolume
36AbstractBackground: Current uptake of HPV vaccination and screening in China is far below World Health Organization 2030 targets for cervical cancer elimination. We quantified health and economic losses of delaying large-scale HPV vaccination and screening implementation in China. Methods: We used a previously validated transmission model to project lifetime health benefits, costs, effectiveness, and timeline for cervical cancer elimination of alternative scenarios, including combining HPV vaccination initiated from 2022 to 2030 with screening in different modalities and coverage increase rates, as well as screening alone. All women living or projected to be born in China during 2022–2100 were considered. We employed a societal perspective. Findings: Regardless of vaccine type, immediate large-scale vaccination initiated in 2022 and achieving 70% coverage of HPV-based screening in 2030 (no-delay scenario) would be the least costly and most effective. Compared with the no-delay scenario, delaying vaccination by eight years would result in 434,000–543,000 additional cervical cancer cases, 138,000–178,000 deaths, and $2863–4437 million costs, and delay elimination by 9–10 years. Even with immediate vaccination, the gradual scale-up of LBC-based screening to 70% coverage in 2070 would result in 2,530,000–3,060,000 additional cases, 909,000–1,040,000 deaths, and $5098–5714 million costs compared with no-delay scenario, and could not achieve elimination if domestic 2vHPV or 4vHPV vaccines are used (4.09–4.21 cases per 100,000 woman in 2100). Interpretation: Delaying large-scale HPV vaccination and/or high-performance screening implementation has detrimental consequences for cervical cancer morbidity, mortality, and expenditure. These findings should spur health authorities to expedite large-scale vaccine rollout and improve screening. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (INV-031449 and INV-003174) and CAMS Innovation Fund for Medical Sciences (CIFMS) (2021-I2M-1-004).Health effects of routine measles vaccination and supplementary immunisation activities in 14 high-burden countries: a Dynamic Measles Immunization Calculation Engine (DynaMICE) modelling study
AbstractAuzenbergs, M., Fu, H., Abbas, K., Procter, S. R., Cutts, F. T., & Jit, M. (n.d.).Publication year
2023Journal title
The Lancet Global HealthVolume
11Issue
8Page(s)
e1194-e1204AbstractBackground: WHO recommends at least 95% population coverage with two doses of measles-containing vaccine (MCV). Most countries worldwide use routine services to offer a first dose of measles-containing vaccine (MCV1) and later, a second dose of measles-containing vaccine (MCV2). Many countries worldwide conduct supplementary immunisation activities (SIAs), offering vaccination to all people in a specific age range irrespective of previous vaccination history. We aimed to estimate the relative effects of each dose and delivery route in 14 countries with high measles burden. Methods: We used an age-structured compartmental dynamic model, the Dynamic Measles Immunization Calculation Engine (DynaMICE), to assess the effects of different vaccination strategies on measles susceptibility and burden during 2000–20 in 14 countries with high measles incidence (containing 53% of the global birth cohort and 78% of the global measles burden). Country-specific routine MCV1 and MCV2 coverage data during 1980–2020 were obtained from the WHO and UNICEF Estimates of National Immunization Coverage database for all modelled countries and SIA data were obtained from the WHO summary of measles and rubella SIAs. We estimated the incremental health effects of different vaccination strategies using prevented cases of measles and deaths from measles and their efficiency using the incremental number needed to vaccinate (NNV) to prevent an additional measles case. Findings: Compared with no vaccination, MCV1 implementation was estimated to have prevented 824 million cases of measles and 9·6 million deaths from measles, with a median NNV of 1·41 (IQR 1·35–1·44). Adding routine MCV2 to MCV1 was estimated to have prevented 108 million cases and 404 270 deaths, whereas adding SIAs to MCV1 was estimated to have prevented 256 million cases and 4·4 million deaths. Despite larger incremental effects, adding SIAs to MCV1 (median incremental NNV 6·02, 5·30–7·68) showed reduced efficiency compared with adding routine MCV2 (5·41, 4·76–6·11). Interpretation: Vaccination strategies, including non-selective SIAs, reach a greater proportion of children who are unvaccinated and reduce measles burden more than MCV2 alone, but efficiency is lower because of the wide age range targeted by SIAs. This analysis provides information to help improve the health effects and efficiency of measles vaccination strategies. The interplay between MCV1, MCV2, and SIAs should be considered when planning future measles vaccination strategies. Funding: Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.Health-related quality of life and economic burden of childhood pneumonia in China: a multiregion study
AbstractGao, J., Fan, J., Zhou, H., Jit, M., & Wang, P. (n.d.).Publication year
2023Journal title
BMJ Paediatrics OpenVolume
7Issue
1AbstractObjective To systematically investigate the health-related quality of life (HRQOL) and economic burden of children with pneumonia in different regions of China. Study design The study recruited a series of children under 5 years hospitalised for pneumonia in Shanghai, Zhengzhou and Kunming from January to October 2019. Health utility was assessed using the proxy version of EQ-5D-Y by interviewing patients’ guardians face to face. The assessment was administered twice at patients’ admission and discharge. Cost incurred for receiving the hospitalisation was collected. Multiple linear regression and quantile regression were used to explore factors of EQ-5D-Y Health Utility Score (HUS) and costs, respectively. Results A total of 501 paediatric patients with a median age (IQR) of 1.5 (0.83–2.71) years were included in the analysis. The mean HUS (SD) of the patients was 0.78 (0.18) at admission, and increased to 0.96 (0.10) at discharge. Some patients (14.2%) still felt worried, sad or unhappy after hospitalisation. The mean hospitalisation cost and total cost were RMB5859 (€773) and RMB6439, respectively. The HUS was lower and the economic burden was heavier for the children in Zhengzhou. Apart from region, type of work, insurance status and hospital days were also related to the baseline HUS or HUS increment after treatment; insurance status, Visual Analogue Scale score at discharge, guardians’ employment and hospitalisation days were associated with the costs. Conclusion The children with pneumonia have poor baseline HRQOL, and many of them still have psychological well being problems after treatment. The economic burden varied significantly across regions and is heavy for the patients’ families in less developed areas (ie, Zhengzhou and Kunming).Immunogenicity and seroefficacy of 10-valent and 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccines: a systematic review and network meta-analysis of individual participant data
AbstractFeng, S., McLellan, J., Pidduck, N., Roberts, N., Higgins, J. P., Choi, Y., Izu, A., Jit, M., Madhi, S. A., Mulholland, K., Pollard, A. J., Temple, B., & Voysey, M. (n.d.).Publication year
2023Journal title
EClinicalMedicineVolume
61AbstractBackground: Vaccination of infants with pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCV) is recommended by the World Health Organization. Evidence is mixed regarding the differences in immunogenicity and efficacy of the different pneumococcal vaccines. Methods: In this systematic-review and network meta-analysis, we searched the Cochrane Library, Embase, Global Health, Medline, clinicaltrials.gov and trialsearch.who.int up to February 17, 2023 with no language restrictions. Studies were eligible if they presented data comparing the immunogenicity of either PCV7, PCV10 or PCV13 in head-to-head randomised trials of young children under 2 years of age, and provided immunogenicity data for at least one time point after the primary vaccination series or the booster dose. Publication bias was assessed via Cochrane's Risk Of Bias due to Missing Evidence tool and comparison-adjusted funnel plots with Egger's test. Individual participant level data were requested from publication authors and/or relevant vaccine manufacturers. Outcomes included the geometric mean ratio (GMR) of serotype-specific IgG and the relative risk (RR) of seroinfection. Seroinfection was defined for each individual as a rise in antibody between the post-primary vaccination series time point and the booster dose, evidence of presumed subclinical infection. Seroefficacy was defined as the RR of seroinfection. We also estimated the relationship between the GMR of IgG one month after priming and the RR of seroinfection by the time of the booster dose. The protocol is registered with PROSPERO, ID CRD42019124580. Findings: 47 studies were eligible from 38 countries across six continents. 28 and 12 studies with data available were included in immunogenicity and seroefficacy analyses, respectively. GMRs comparing PCV13 vs PCV10 favoured PCV13 for serotypes 4, 9V, and 23F at 1 month after primary vaccination series, with 1.14- to 1.54- fold significantly higher IgG responses with PCV13. Risk of seroinfection prior to the time of booster dose was lower for PCV13 for serotype 4, 6B, 9V, 18C and 23F than for PCV10. Significant heterogeneity and inconsistency were present for most serotypes and for both outcomes. Two-fold higher antibody after primary vaccination was associated with a 54% decrease in risk of seroinfection (RR 0.46, 95% CI 0.23–0.96). Interpretation: Serotype-specific differences were found in immunogenicity and seroefficacy between PCV13 and PCV10. Higher antibody response after vaccination was associated with a lower risk of subsequent infection. These findings could be used to compare PCVs and optimise vaccination strategies. Funding: The NIHR Health Technology Assessment Programme.Impact and cost-effectiveness of measles vaccination through microarray patches in 70 low-income and middle-income countries: mathematical modelling and early-stage economic evaluation
AbstractFu, H., Abbas, K., Malvolti, S., Gregory, C., Ko, M., Amorij, J. P., & Jit, M. (n.d.).Publication year
2023Journal title
BMJ Global HealthVolume
8Issue
11AbstractBackground Microarray patches (MAPs) are a promising technology being developed to reduce barriers to vaccine delivery based on needles and syringes (N&S). To address the evidence gap on the public health value of applying this potential technology to immunisation programmes, we evaluated the health impact on measles burden and cost-effectiveness of introducing measles-rubella MAPs (MR-MAPs) in 70 low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). Methods We used an age-structured dynamic model of measles transmission and vaccination to project measles cases, deaths and disability-adjusted life-years during 2030–2040. Compared with the baseline scenarios with continuing current N&S-based practice, we evaluated the introduction of MR-MAPs under different measles vaccine coverage projections and MR-MAP introduction strategies. Costs were calculated based on the ingredients approach, including direct cost of measles treatment, vaccine procurement and vaccine delivery. Model-based burden and cost estimates were derived for individual countries and country income groups. We compared the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of introducing MR-MAPs to health opportunity costs. Results MR-MAP introduction could prevent 27%–37% of measles burden between 2030 and 2040 in 70 LMICs, compared with the N&S-only immunisation strategy. The largest health impact could be achieved under lower coverage projection and accelerated introduction strategy, with 39 million measles cases averted. Measles treatment cost is a key driver of the net cost of introduction. In countries with a relatively higher income, introducing MR-MAPs could be a cost-saving intervention due to reduced treatment costs. Compared with country-specific health opportunity costs, introducing MR-MAPs would be cost-effective in 16%–81% of LMICs, depending on the MR-MAPs procurement prices and vaccine coverage projections. Conclusions Introducing MR-MAPs in LMICs can be a cost-effective strategy to revitalise measles immunisation programmes with stagnant uptake and reach undervaccinated children. Sustainable introduction and uptake of MR-MAPs has the potential to improve vaccine equity within and between countries and accelerate progress towards measles elimination.Influenza vaccine uptake among children and older adults in China: a secondary analysis of a quasi-experimental study
AbstractDu, Y., Jin, C., Jit, M., Chantler, T., Lin, L., Larson, H. J., Li, J., Gong, W., Yang, F., Ren, N., Cheng, W., Zhou, Y., Tang, W., Tucker, J. D., & Wu, D. (n.d.).Publication year
2023Journal title
BMC Infectious DiseasesVolume
23Issue
1AbstractBackground: Influenza vaccination is the key to prevent influenza-related disease, especially among high-risk populations. However, influenza vaccine uptake in China is low. This secondary analysis of a quasi-experimental trial aimed to understand factors associated with influenza vaccine uptake among children and older people stratified by funding context. Methods: A total of 225 children (aged 0.5-8 years) and 225 older people (aged 60 years or above) were recruited from three clinics (rural, suburban and urban) in Guangdong Province. Participants were allocated into two groups based on funding contexts: a self-paid group (N = 150, 75 children and 75 older adults) in which participants paid full price for their vaccination; and a subsidized group (N = 300, 150 children and 150 older adults) in which varying levels of financial support was provided. Univariate and multivariable logistic regressions were conducted stratified by funding contexts. Results: Overall, 75.0% (225/300) of participants in the subsidized group and 36.7% (55/150) in the self-paid group got vaccinated. Older adults had lower vaccination rates than children in both funding groups, while both age groups showed much higher uptake in the subsidized group than in the self-paid group (aOR = 5.96, 95% CI: 3.77–9.42, p = 0.001). In the self-paid group, having prior influenza vaccination history of children (aOR:2.61, 95%CI: 1.06–6.42) or older people (aOR:4.76, 95%CI: 1.08–20.90) was associated with increased influenza vaccine uptake compared to those who had no prior vaccination experiences in the family. While in the subsidized group, participants who got married or lived with partners (aOR = 0.32, 0.10–0.98) had lower vaccination uptake than single ones. Trust in providers’ advice (aOR = 4.95, 95%CI:1.99, 12.43), perceived effectiveness of the vaccine (aOR: 12.18, 95%CI: 5.21–28.50), and experienced influenza-like illnesses in the family in the past year (aOR = 46.52, 4.10, 533.78) were associated with higher vaccine uptake. Conclusions: Older people had suboptimal vaccine uptake compared to children in both contexts and need more attention to enhance influenza vaccination. Tailoring interventions to different vaccine funding contexts may help improve influenza vaccination: In self-paid context, motivating people to accept their first ever influenza vaccination may be a promising strategy. In subsidized context, improving public confidence in vaccine effectiveness and providers’ advice would be useful.Is there a role for RDTs as we live with COVID-19? An assessment of different strategies
AbstractBonnet, G., Vassall, A., & Jit, M. (n.d.).Publication year
2023Journal title
BMJ Global HealthVolume
8Issue
1AbstractIntroduction By 2022, high levels of past COVID-19 infections, combined with substantial levels of vaccination and the development of Omicron, have shifted country strategies towards burden reduction policies. SARS-CoV-2 rapid antigen tests (rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs)) could contribute to these policies by helping rapidly detect, isolate and/or treat infections in different settings. However, the evidence to inform RDT policy choices in low and middle-income countries (LMICs) is limited. Method We provide an overview of the potential impact of several RDT use cases (surveillance; testing, tracing and isolation without and with surveillance; hospital-based screening to reduce nosocomial COVID-19; and testing to enable earlier/expanded treatment) for a range of country settings. We use conceptual models and literature review to identify which use cases are likely to bring benefits and how these may change with outbreak characteristics. Impacts are measured through multiple outcomes related to gaining time, reducing the burden on the health system and reducing deaths. Results In an optimal scenario in terms of resources and capacity and with baseline parameters, we find marginal time gains of 4 days or more through surveillance and testing tracing and isolation with surveillance, a reduction in peak intensive care unit (ICU) or ICU admissions by 5% or more (hospital-based screening; testing, tracing and isolation) and reductions in COVID-19 deaths by over 6% (hospital-based screening; test and treat). Time gains may be used to strengthen ICU capacity and/or boost vulnerable individuals, though only a small minority of at-risk individuals could be reached in the time available. The impact of RDTs declines with lower country resources and capacity, more transmissible or immune-escaping variants and reduced test sensitivity. Conclusion RDTs alone are unlikely to dramatically reduce the burden of COVID-19 in LMICs, though they may have an important role alongside other interventions such as vaccination, therapeutic drugs, improved healthcare capacity and non-pharmaceutical measures.Maternal immunisation against Group B Streptococcus: A global analysis of health impact and cost-effectiveness
AbstractProcter, S. R., Gonçalves, B. P., Paul, P., Chandna, J., Seedat, F., Koukounari, A., Hutubessy, R., Trotter, C., Lawn, J. E., & Jit, M. (n.d.).Publication year
2023Journal title
PLoS MedicineVolume
20Issue
3AbstractBackground AU Group: Pleaseconfirmthatallheadinglevelsarerepresentedcorrectly B Streptococcus (GBS) can cause invasive disease (iGBS) : in young infants, typically presenting as sepsis or meningitis, and is also associated with stillbirth and preterm birth. GBS vaccines are under development, but their potential health impact and cost-effectiveness have not been assessed globally. Methods and findings We assessed the health impact and value (using net monetary benefit (NMB), which measures both health and economic effects of vaccination into monetary units) of GBS maternal vaccination in an annual cohort of 140 million pregnant women across 183 countries in 2020. Our analysis uses a decision tree model, incorporating risks of GBS-related health outcomes from an existing Bayesian disease burden model. We extrapolated country-specific GBS-related healthcare costs using data from a previous systematic review and calculated quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) lost due to infant mortality and long-term disability. We assumed 80% vaccine efficacy against iGBS and stillbirth, following the WHO Preferred Product Characteristics, and coverage based on the proportion of pregnant women receiving at least 4 antenatal visits. One dose was assumed to cost $50 in high-income countries, $15 in upper-middle income countries, and $3.50 in low−/lower-middle-income countries. We estimated NMB using alternative normative assumptions that may be adopted by policymakers. Vaccinating pregnant women could avert 127,000 (95% uncertainty range 63,300 to 248,000) early-onset and 87,300 (38,100 to 209,000) late-onset infant iGBS cases, 31,100 deaths (14,400 to 66,400), 17,900 (6,380 to 49,900) cases of moderate and severe neurodevelopmental impairment, and 23,000 (10,000 to 56,400) stillbirths. A vaccine effective against GBS-associated prematurity might also avert 185,000 (13,500 to 407,000) preterm births. Globally, a 1-dose vaccine programme could cost $1.7 billion but save $385 million in healthcare costs. Estimated global NMB ranged from $1.1 billion ($−0.2 to 3.8 billion) under the least favourable normative assumptions to $17 billion ($9.1 to 31 billion) under the most favourable normative assumptions. The main limitation of our analysis was the scarcity of data to inform some of the model parameters such as those governing health-related quality of life and long-term costs from disability, and how these parameters may vary across country contexts. edforthoseusedthroughoutthetext:Pleaseverifythatallentriesarecorrect: Conclusions In this study, we found that maternal GBS vaccination could have a large impact on infant morbidity and mortality. Globally, a GBS maternal vaccine at reasonable prices is likely to be a cost-effective intervention.Maximising the cost-effectiveness of human papillomavirus testing for cervical screening in the context of routine HPV vaccination in Hong Kong: abridged secondary publication
Leung, S. M., Wu, J., Chan, K. K., & Jit, M. (n.d.).Publication year
2023Journal title
Journal of the Hong Kong Medical AssociationVolume
29Issue
4Page(s)
11-15Maximizing the cost-effectiveness of cervical screening in the context of routine HPV vaccination by optimizing screening strategies with respect to vaccine uptake: a modeling analysis
AbstractChoi, H. C., Leung, K., Chan, K. K., Bai, Y., Jit, M., & Wu, J. T. (n.d.).Publication year
2023Journal title
BMC MedicineVolume
21Issue
1AbstractBackground: Regarding primary and secondary cervical cancer prevention, the World Health Organization proposed the cervical cancer elimination strategy that requires countries to achieve 90% uptake of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccines and 70% screening uptake. The optimal cervical screening strategy is likely different for unvaccinated and vaccinated cohorts upon national HPV immunization. However, health authorities typically only provide a one-size-fits-all recommendation for the general population. We aimed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness for determining the optimal screening strategies for vaccinated and unvaccinated cohorts. Methods: We considered the women population in Hong Kong which has a unique HPV infection and cervical cancer epidemiology compared to other regions in China and Asia. We used mathematical models which comprise a deterministic age-structured compartmental dynamic component and a stochastic individual-based cohort component to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of screening strategies for cervical screening. Following the recommendations in local guidelines in Hong Kong, we considered strategies that involved cytology, HPV testing, or co-testing as primary cervical screening. We also explored the impacts of adopting alternative de-intensified strategies for vaccinated cohorts. The 3-year cytology screening was used as the base comparator while no screening was also considered for vaccinated cohorts. Women’s lifetime life years, quality-adjusted life years, and costs of screening and treatment were estimated from the societal perspective based on the year 2022 and were discounted by 3% annually. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were compared to a willingness to pay (WTP) threshold of one gross domestic product per capita (US $47,792). Probabilistic and one-way sensitivity analyses were conducted. Results: Among unvaccinated cohorts, the strategy that adds reflex HPV to triage mild cytology abnormality generated more life years saved than cytology-only screening and could be a cost-effective alternative. Among vaccinated cohorts, when vaccine uptake was 85% (based on the uptake in 2022), all guideline-based strategies (including the cytology-only screening) had ICERs above the WTP threshold when compared with no screening if the vaccine-induced protection duration was 20 years or longer. Under the same conditions, HPV testing with genotyping triage had ICERs (compared with no screening) below the WTP threshold if the routine screening interval was lengthened to 10 and 15 years or screening was initiated at ages 30 and 35 years. Conclusions: HPV testing is a cost-effective alternative to cytology for vaccinated cohorts, and the associated optimal screening frequency depends on vaccine uptake. Health authorities should optimize screening recommendations by accounting for population vaccine uptake.Optimal allocation strategies for HPV vaccination introduction and expansion in China accommodated to different supply and dose schedule scenarios: A modelling study
AbstractYou, T., Zhao, X., Hu, S., Gao, M., Liu, Y., Zhang, Y., Qiao, Y., Jit, M., & Zhao, F. (n.d.).Publication year
2023Journal title
EClinicalMedicineVolume
56AbstractBackground: A key barrier to cervical cancer elimination in China is low human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine uptake, which is limited by supply constraints, high prices, and restriction to two/three-dose schedule. We explored optimal vaccination strategies for maximizing health and economic benefits accommodated to different supply and dose schedules. Methods: We evaluated different HPV vaccine strategies under 4 scenarios with different assumptions about vaccine availability and dose schedules. Each strategy involved different vaccine types, target ages, and modes of delivery. We used a previously validated transmission model to assess the health impact (cervical cancer cases averted), efficiency (number of doses needed to be given to prevent one case of cervical cancer [NND]), and value for money (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio [ICER] and return on investment [ROI]) of different strategies in Chinese females over a 100-year time horizon. All costs are expressed in 2021 dollars. We adopted a societal perspective and discounted quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), costs and benefits by 3% annually for cost-effectiveness analysis and ROI calculation. Findings: In a supply-constrained and on-label use scenario, compared with no vaccination, two-dose routine vaccination of 14-year-olds would be the optimal, cost-saving strategy for a future national program (NNDs: 150–220, net cost saving: $15 164 million–$22 034 million, ROIs: 7–14, depending on vaccine type). If the one-dose schedule recommended by WHO is permitted in China, then reallocating the second dose from the routine cohorts to add a catch-up vaccination at 20-year-olds would be the most efficient strategy (NNDs: 73–107), and would be cost-saving compared with routine one-dose vaccination only (net cost saving: $4127 million–$6035 million, ROIs: 19–37). When supply constraints are lifted, scaling up vaccination in older females to 26 years could further expand the health benefits and still be cost-saving compared to maintaining the optimal vaccination strategy in the supply-constrained context. Interpretation: Our study provides timely evidence for the current and future HPV vaccination strategy planning in China, and may also be of value to other countries with supply and dose restrictions. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation; CAMS Innovation Fund for Medical Sciences (CIFMS).Pay-it-forward influenza vaccination among older adults and children: A cost-effectiveness analysis in China
AbstractTang, F. F. Y., Kosana, P., Jit, M., Terris-Prestholt, F., Wu, D., Ong, J. J., & Tucker, J. D. (n.d.).Publication year
2023Journal title
PLOS Global Public HealthVolume
3Issue
8AbstractA quasi-experimental study was conducted to evaluate the effectiveness of a pay-it-forward strategy for increasing influenza vaccination among children and older adults compared to a self-paid vaccination strategy in China. Pay-it-forward is an innovative community-engaged intervention in which participants receive a free influenza vaccination and are then asked if they would like to donate or create a message to support subsequent vaccinations. This economic evaluation used a decision-tree model to compare pay-it-forward to a standard of care arm in which patients had to pay for their own influenza vaccine. The analysis was performed from the healthcare provider perspective and costs were calculated with 2020 United States dollars. The time horizon was one year. In the base case analysis, pay-it-forward was more effective (111 vs 55 people vaccinated) but more costly than standard-of-care ($4477 vs $2725). Pay-it-forward spurred 96.4% (107/111) of individuals to voluntarily donate to support influenza vaccination for high-risk groups in China. Further costing and implementation research is needed to inform scale up.Population-Level Risk Factors Related to Measles Case Fatality: A Conceptual Framework Based on Expert Consultation and Literature Review
AbstractSbarra, A. N., Jit, M., Mosser, J. F., Ferrari, M., Cutts, F., Papania, M., Kretsinger, K., McCarthy, K. A., Thakkar, N., Gaythorpe, K. A., Gamage, D., Krause, L. K., Dansereau, E., Crowcroft, N., & Portnoy, A. (n.d.).Publication year
2023Journal title
VaccinesVolume
11Issue
8AbstractA better understanding of population-level factors related to measles case fatality is needed to estimate measles mortality burden and impact of interventions such as vaccination. This study aimed to develop a conceptual framework of mechanisms associated with measles case fatality ratios (CFRs) and assess the scope of evidence available for related indicators. Using expert consultation, we developed a conceptual framework of mechanisms associated with measles CFR and identified population-level indicators potentially associated with each mechanism. We conducted a literature review by searching PubMed on 31 October 2021 to determine the scope of evidence for the expert-identified indicators. Studies were included if they contained evidence of an association between an indicator and CFR and were excluded if they were from non-human studies or reported non-original data. Included studies were assessed for study quality. Expert consultation identified five mechanisms in a conceptual framework of factors related to measles CFR. We identified 3772 studies for review and found 49 studies showing at least one significant association with CFR for 15 indicators (average household size, educational attainment, first- and second-dose coverage of measles-containing vaccine, human immunodeficiency virus prevalence, level of health care available, stunting prevalence, surrounding conflict, travel time to major city or settlement, travel time to nearest health care facility, under-five mortality rate, underweight prevalence, vitamin A deficiency prevalence, vitamin A treatment, and general malnutrition) and only non-significant associations for five indicators (antibiotic use for measles-related pneumonia, malaria prevalence, percent living in urban settings, pneumococcal conjugate vaccination coverage, vitamin A supplementation). Our study used expert consultation and a literature review to provide additional insights and a summary of the available evidence of these underlying mechanisms and indicators that could inform future measles CFR estimations.Potential benefit of extended dose schedules of human papillomavirus vaccination in the context of scarce resources and COVID-19 disruptions in low-income and middle-income countries: a mathematical modelling analysis
AbstractBénard, Élodie, Drolet, M., Laprise, J. F., Jit, M., Prem, K., Boily, M. C., & Brisson, M. (n.d.).Publication year
2023Journal title
The Lancet Global HealthVolume
11Issue
1Page(s)
e48-e58AbstractBackground: The WHO Strategic Advisory Group of Experts recommended that an extended interval of 3–5 years between the two doses of the human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine could be considered to alleviate vaccine supply shortages. However, three concerns have limited the introduction of extended schedules: girls could be infected between the two doses, the vaccination coverage for the second dose could be lower at ages 13–14 years than at ages 9–10 years, and identifying girls vaccinated with a first dose to give them the second dose could be difficult. Using mathematical modelling, we examined the potential effect of these concerns on the population-level impact and efficiency of extended dose HPV vaccination schedules. Methods: We used HPV-ADVISE, an individual-based, transmission-dynamic model of multitype HPV infection and disease, calibrated to country-specific data for four low-income and middle-income countries (India, Viet Nam, Uganda, and Nigeria). For the extended dose scenarios, we varied the vaccination coverage of the second dose among girls previously vaccinated, the one-dose vaccine efficacy, and the one-dose vaccine duration of protection. We also examined a strategy in which girls aged 14 years were vaccinated irrespective of their previous vaccination status. We used a scenario of girls-only two-dose vaccination at age 9 years (vaccine=9 valent, vaccine-type efficacy=100%, duration of protection=lifetime, and coverage=80%) as our comparator. We estimated two outcomes: the relative reduction in the age-standardised cervical cancer incidence (population-level impact) and the number of cervical cancers averted per 100 000 doses (efficiency). Findings: Our model projected substantial reductions in cervical cancer incidence over 100 years with the two-dose schedule (79–86% depending on the country), compared with no vaccination. Projections for the 5-year extended schedule, in which the second dose is given only to girls previously vaccinated at age 9 years, were similar to the current two-dose schedule, unless vaccination coverage of the second dose is very low (reductions in cervical cancer incidence of 71–78% assuming 30% coverage at age 14 years among girls vaccinated at age 9 years). However, when the dose at age 14 years is given to girls irrespective of vaccination status and assuming high vaccination coverage, the model projected a substantially greater reduction in cervical cancer incidence compared with the current two-dose schedule (reductions in cervical cancer incidence of 86–93% assuming 70% coverage at age 14 years, irrespective of vaccination status). Efficiency of the extended schedule was greater than the two-dose schedule, even with a drop in vaccination coverage. Interpretation: The three concerns are unlikely to have a substantial effect on the population-level impact of extended dose schedules. Hence, extended dose schedules will likely provide similar cervical cancer reductions as two-dose schedules, while reducing the number of doses required in the short-term, providing a more efficient use of scarce resources, and offering a 5-year time window to reassess the necessity of the second dose. Funding: WHO, Canadian Institute of Health Research Foundation, Fonds de recherche du Québec–Santé, Digital Research Alliance of Canada, and Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.Potential health and economic impact of paediatric vaccination using next-generation influenza vaccines in Kenya: a modelling study
AbstractWaterlow, N. R., Radhakrishnan, S., Dawa, J., Van Leeuwen, E., Procter, S. R., Lambach, P., Bresee, J., Mazur, M., Eggo, R. M., & Jit, M. (n.d.).Publication year
2023Journal title
BMC MedicineVolume
21Issue
1AbstractBackground: Influenza is a major year-round cause of respiratory illness in Kenya, particularly in children under 5. Current influenza vaccines result in short-term, strain-specific immunity and were found in a previous study not to be cost-effective in Kenya. However, next-generation vaccines are in development that may have a greater impact and cost-effectiveness profile. Methods: We expanded a model previously used to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of seasonal influenza vaccines in Kenya to include next-generation vaccines by allowing for enhanced vaccine characteristics and multi-annual immunity. We specifically examined vaccinating children under 5 years of age with improved vaccines, evaluating vaccines with combinations of increased vaccine effectiveness, cross-protection between strains (breadth) and duration of immunity. We evaluated cost-effectiveness using incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) and incremental net monetary benefits (INMBs) for a range of values for the willingness-to-pay (WTP) per DALY averted. Finally, we estimated threshold per-dose vaccine prices at which vaccination becomes cost-effective. Results: Next-generation vaccines can be cost-effective, dependent on the vaccine characteristics and assumed WTP thresholds. Universal vaccines (assumed to provide long-term and broad immunity) are most cost-effective in Kenya across three of four WTP thresholds evaluated, with the lowest median value of ICER per DALY averted ($263, 95% Credible Interval (CrI): $ − 1698, $1061) and the highest median INMBs. At a WTP of $623, universal vaccines are cost-effective at or below a median price of $5.16 per dose (95% CrI: $0.94, $18.57). We also show that the assumed mechanism underlying infection-derived immunity strongly impacts vaccine outcomes. Conclusions: This evaluation provides evidence for country-level decision makers about future next-generation vaccine introduction, as well as global research funders about the potential market for these vaccines. Next-generation vaccines may offer a cost-effective intervention to reduce influenza burden in low-income countries with year-round seasonality like Kenya.Potential population-level effectiveness of one-dose HPV vaccination in low-income and middle-income countries: a mathematical modelling analysis
AbstractBénard, Élodie, Drolet, M., Laprise, J. F., Gingras, G., Jit, M., Boily, M. C., Bloem, P., & Brisson, M. (n.d.).Publication year
2023Journal title
The Lancet Public HealthVolume
8Issue
10Page(s)
e788-e799AbstractBackground: Given the accumulating evidence that one-dose vaccination could provide high and sustained protection against human papillomavirus (HPV) infection and related diseases, we examined the population-level effectiveness and efficiency of one-dose HPV vaccination of girls compared with two-dose vaccination, using mathematical modelling. Methods: In this mathematical modelling study, we used HPV-ADVISE LMIC, an individual-based transmission-dynamic model independently calibrated to four epidemiologically diverse low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs; India, Nigeria, Uganda, and Viet Nam). We parameterised and calibrated the model using sexual behaviour and epidemiological data identified from international population-based datasets and the literature. All base-case vaccination scenarios start in 2023 with the nonavalent vaccine and assumed 80% vaccination coverage with one or two doses. We assumed that two doses of vaccine provide 100% efficacy against vaccine-type infections and a lifelong duration of protection. We examined a non-inferior vaccination scenario for one dose compared with two doses, pessimistic scenarios of lower one-dose vaccine efficacy (85%) or a shorter duration of protection (ie, 20 or 30 years), and the effectiveness of a mitigation scenario in which schedules would switch from one dose to two doses. We also did sensitivity analyses by varying vaccination coverage. We used three outcomes: the relative reduction in cervical cancer incidence, the number of cervical cancers averted, and the number of vaccine doses needed to prevent one cervical cancer. Findings: Assuming non-inferior vaccine characteristics for one dose compared with two doses, the model projections show that two-dose or one-dose routine vaccination of girls aged 9 years (with a multi-age cohort vaccination of girls aged 10–14 years) would avert 12·0 million (80% UI 9·5–14·5) cervical cancers in India, 4·7 million (3·4–5·8) in Nigeria, 2·3 million (1·9–2·6) in Uganda, and 0·4 million (0·2–0·5) in Viet Nam over 100 years. Under pessimistic assumptions of lower one-dose efficacy (85%) or a shorter duration of protection (ie, 30 years), one-dose routine vaccination would avert 69% (61–80) to 94% (92–96) of the cervical cancers averted with two-dose routine vaccination. However, when assuming a duration of protection of 20 years, one-dose routine vaccination would avert substantially fewer cervical cancers (ie, 35% [26–44] to 69% [65–71] of the cervical cancers averted with two-dose routine vaccination). A switch from one-dose to two-dose routine vaccination of girls aged 9 years, with a one-dose catch-up of girls aged 10–14 years, 5 years after the start of the vaccination programme, could mitigate potential losses in cervical cancer prevention from a short one-dose duration of protection (averting 92% [83–98] to 99% [97–100]) of the cervical cancers averted with two-dose routine vaccination). One-dose routine vaccination would result in fewer doses needed to prevent one cervical cancer than two-dose routine vaccination, even if the duration of protection is as low as 20 years. Finally, for countries with two-dose routine vaccination, adding one-dose multi-age cohort vaccination in the first year would provide similar benefits as a two-dose multi-age cohort vaccination, and would be more efficient even under the pessimistic assumptions of lower one-dose vaccine efficacy or duration of protection. Interpretation: One-dose routine vaccination could avert most of the cervical cancers averted with two-dose vaccination while being more efficient, provided the duration of one-dose protection is greater than 20–30 years (depending on the LMIC). The doses saved by introducing one-dose routine vaccination could offer the opportunity to vaccinate girls before they age out of the vaccination window of 9–14 years and, potentially, to vaccinate boys or older age groups. Funding: Fonds de recherche du Québec—Santé, Digital Research Alliance of Canada, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.Protocol for an OpenSAFELY cohort study collecting patient-reported outcome measures using the TPP Airmid smartphone application and linked big data to quantify the health and economic costs of long COVID (OpenPROMPT)
AbstractHerrett, E., Tomlin, K., Lin, L. Y., Tomlinson, L. A., Jit, M., Briggs, A., Marks, M., Sandmann, F., Parry, J., Bates, C., Morley, J., Bacon, S., Butler-Cole, B., Mahalingasivam, V., Dennison, A., Smith, D., Gabriel, E., Mehrkar, A., Goldacre, B., … Eggo, R. M. (n.d.).Publication year
2023Journal title
BMJ openVolume
13Issue
2AbstractIntroduction The impact of long COVID on health-related quality of-life (HRQoL) and productivity is not currently known. It is important to understand who is worst affected by long COVID and the cost to the National Health Service (NHS) and society, so that strategies like booster vaccines can be prioritised to the right people. OpenPROMPT aims to understand the impact of long COVID on HRQoL in adults attending English primary care. Methods and analysis We will ask people to participate in this cohort study through a smartphone app (Airmid), and completing a series of questionnaires held within the app. Questionnaires will ask about HRQoL, productivity and symptoms of long COVID. Participants will be asked to fill in the questionnaires once a month, for 90 days. Questionnaire responses will be linked, where possible, to participants' existing health records from primary care, secondary care, and COVID testing and vaccination data. Analysis will take place using the OpenSAFELY data platform and will estimate the impact of long COVID on HRQoL, productivity and cost to the NHS. Ethics and dissemination The Proportionate Review Sub-Committee of the South Central - Berkshire B Research Ethics Committee has reviewed and approved the study and have agreed that we can ask people to take part (22/SC/0198). Our results will provide information to support long-term care, and make recommendations for prevention of long COVID in the future. Trial registration number NCT05552612.Recent economic evaluation of 1-dose HPV vaccination uses unsupported assumptions
Burger, E., Baussano, I., Kim, J. J., Laprise, J. F., Berkhof, J., Schiller, J. T., Canfell, K., Prem, K., Brisson, M., Jit, M., & Barnabas, R. V. (n.d.). In Vaccine (1–).Publication year
2023Volume
41Issue
16Page(s)
2648-2649Report of the WHO technical consultation on the evaluation of respiratory syncytial virus prevention cost effectiveness in low- and middle-income countries, April 7–8, 2022
AbstractFitzpatrick, M. C., Laufer, R. S., Baral, R., Driscoll, A. J., Feikin, D. R., Fleming, J. A., Jit, M., Kim, S., Koltai, M., Li, Y., Li, X., Nair, H., Neuzil, K. M., Pecenka, C., Sparrow, E., Srikantiah, P., & Ortiz, J. R. (n.d.).Publication year
2023Journal title
VaccineVolume
41Issue
48Page(s)
7047-7059AbstractPolicymakers often rely on impact and cost-effectiveness evaluations to inform decisions about the introduction of health interventions in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs); however, cost-effectiveness results for the same health intervention can differ by the choice of parameter inputs, modelling assumptions, and geography. Anticipating the near-term availability of new respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) prevention products, WHO convened a two-day virtual consultation in April 2022 with stakeholder groups and global experts in health economics, epidemiology, and vaccine implementation. The objective was to review methods, parameterization, and results of existing cost-effectiveness analyses for RSV prevention in LMICs; identify the most influential inputs and data limitations; and recommend and prioritize future data gathering and research to improve RSV prevention impact estimates in LMICs. Epidemiological parameters identified as both influential and uncertain were those associated with RSV hospitalization and death, specifically setting-specific hospitalization rates and RSV-attributable death rates. Influential economic parameters included product price, delivery costs, willingness-to-pay for health on the part of potential donors, and the cost of RSV-associated hospitalization. Some of the influential parameters identified at this meeting should be more precisely measured by further research. Other influential economic parameters that are highly uncertain may not be resolved, and it is appropriate to use sensitivity analyses to explore these within cost-effectiveness evaluations. This report highlights the presentations and major discussions of the meeting.