Mark Jit
Mark Jit
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Chair and Professor of the Department of Global and Environmental Health
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Professional overview
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Mark Jit is the inaugural chair and a professor in the Department of Global and Environmental Health. He was formerly head of the Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology & Dynamics and co-director of the Global Health Economics Centre (GHECO) at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM). He holds honorary appointments at LSHTM as well as the University of Hong Kong (HKU) and the National University of Singapore (NUS).
Dr. Jit’s research focuses on epidemiological and economic modeling of vaccines to support evidence-based public health decision making. He has published papers covering a range of vaccine-preventable or potentially vaccine-preventable diseases including COVID-19, measles, HPV, pneumococcus, rotavirus, influenza, Group B Streptococcus, dengue, EV71 and RSV as well as methodological papers advancing the ways vaccines are evaluated. This work has influenced many of the major changes to immunization policy in countries around the world. Dr. Jit has served on a number of expert advisory committees in the UK as well as for international organizations such as the World Health Organization. He also organises or contributes to academic and professional courses on vaccine modeling, economics and decision science around the world.
Dr. Jit received his BSc and PhD in Mathematics from University College London, specializing in mathematical biology, and a Master of Public Health degree from King’s College London.
Visit Dr. Jit's Google Scholar's page to learn more about his research portfolio.
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Education
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BSc, Mathematics, University College LondonPhD, Mathematics, University College LondonMPH, Public Health, King's College London
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Honors and awards
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Clarivate Highly Cited Researcher (20222023)Fellow of the Academy of Medical Sciences (2023)Training Fund Award, Health Protection Agency (2007)Andrew Rosen Prize, University College London (1999)Institute of Mathematics and its Applications Award (1998)Departmental Research Studentship, University College London (1998)Student Union Commendation, University College London (1997)Fillon Prize, University College London (1996)Pathfinder Award, University College London (1995)
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Publications
Publications
Optimal allocation strategies for HPV vaccination introduction and expansion in China accommodated to different supply and dose schedule scenarios: A modelling study
AbstractYou, T., Zhao, X., Hu, S., Gao, M., Liu, Y., Zhang, Y., Qiao, Y., Jit, M., & Zhao, F. (n.d.).Publication year
2023Journal title
EClinicalMedicineVolume
56AbstractBackground: A key barrier to cervical cancer elimination in China is low human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine uptake, which is limited by supply constraints, high prices, and restriction to two/three-dose schedule. We explored optimal vaccination strategies for maximizing health and economic benefits accommodated to different supply and dose schedules. Methods: We evaluated different HPV vaccine strategies under 4 scenarios with different assumptions about vaccine availability and dose schedules. Each strategy involved different vaccine types, target ages, and modes of delivery. We used a previously validated transmission model to assess the health impact (cervical cancer cases averted), efficiency (number of doses needed to be given to prevent one case of cervical cancer [NND]), and value for money (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio [ICER] and return on investment [ROI]) of different strategies in Chinese females over a 100-year time horizon. All costs are expressed in 2021 dollars. We adopted a societal perspective and discounted quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), costs and benefits by 3% annually for cost-effectiveness analysis and ROI calculation. Findings: In a supply-constrained and on-label use scenario, compared with no vaccination, two-dose routine vaccination of 14-year-olds would be the optimal, cost-saving strategy for a future national program (NNDs: 150–220, net cost saving: $15 164 million–$22 034 million, ROIs: 7–14, depending on vaccine type). If the one-dose schedule recommended by WHO is permitted in China, then reallocating the second dose from the routine cohorts to add a catch-up vaccination at 20-year-olds would be the most efficient strategy (NNDs: 73–107), and would be cost-saving compared with routine one-dose vaccination only (net cost saving: $4127 million–$6035 million, ROIs: 19–37). When supply constraints are lifted, scaling up vaccination in older females to 26 years could further expand the health benefits and still be cost-saving compared to maintaining the optimal vaccination strategy in the supply-constrained context. Interpretation: Our study provides timely evidence for the current and future HPV vaccination strategy planning in China, and may also be of value to other countries with supply and dose restrictions. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation; CAMS Innovation Fund for Medical Sciences (CIFMS).Pay-it-forward influenza vaccination among older adults and children: A cost-effectiveness analysis in China
AbstractTang, F. F. Y., Kosana, P., Jit, M., Terris-Prestholt, F., Wu, D., Ong, J. J., & Tucker, J. D. (n.d.).Publication year
2023Journal title
PLOS Global Public HealthVolume
3Issue
8AbstractA quasi-experimental study was conducted to evaluate the effectiveness of a pay-it-forward strategy for increasing influenza vaccination among children and older adults compared to a self-paid vaccination strategy in China. Pay-it-forward is an innovative community-engaged intervention in which participants receive a free influenza vaccination and are then asked if they would like to donate or create a message to support subsequent vaccinations. This economic evaluation used a decision-tree model to compare pay-it-forward to a standard of care arm in which patients had to pay for their own influenza vaccine. The analysis was performed from the healthcare provider perspective and costs were calculated with 2020 United States dollars. The time horizon was one year. In the base case analysis, pay-it-forward was more effective (111 vs 55 people vaccinated) but more costly than standard-of-care ($4477 vs $2725). Pay-it-forward spurred 96.4% (107/111) of individuals to voluntarily donate to support influenza vaccination for high-risk groups in China. Further costing and implementation research is needed to inform scale up.Population-Level Risk Factors Related to Measles Case Fatality: A Conceptual Framework Based on Expert Consultation and Literature Review
AbstractSbarra, A. N., Jit, M., Mosser, J. F., Ferrari, M., Cutts, F., Papania, M., Kretsinger, K., McCarthy, K. A., Thakkar, N., Gaythorpe, K. A., Gamage, D., Krause, L. K., Dansereau, E., Crowcroft, N., & Portnoy, A. (n.d.).Publication year
2023Journal title
VaccinesVolume
11Issue
8AbstractA better understanding of population-level factors related to measles case fatality is needed to estimate measles mortality burden and impact of interventions such as vaccination. This study aimed to develop a conceptual framework of mechanisms associated with measles case fatality ratios (CFRs) and assess the scope of evidence available for related indicators. Using expert consultation, we developed a conceptual framework of mechanisms associated with measles CFR and identified population-level indicators potentially associated with each mechanism. We conducted a literature review by searching PubMed on 31 October 2021 to determine the scope of evidence for the expert-identified indicators. Studies were included if they contained evidence of an association between an indicator and CFR and were excluded if they were from non-human studies or reported non-original data. Included studies were assessed for study quality. Expert consultation identified five mechanisms in a conceptual framework of factors related to measles CFR. We identified 3772 studies for review and found 49 studies showing at least one significant association with CFR for 15 indicators (average household size, educational attainment, first- and second-dose coverage of measles-containing vaccine, human immunodeficiency virus prevalence, level of health care available, stunting prevalence, surrounding conflict, travel time to major city or settlement, travel time to nearest health care facility, under-five mortality rate, underweight prevalence, vitamin A deficiency prevalence, vitamin A treatment, and general malnutrition) and only non-significant associations for five indicators (antibiotic use for measles-related pneumonia, malaria prevalence, percent living in urban settings, pneumococcal conjugate vaccination coverage, vitamin A supplementation). Our study used expert consultation and a literature review to provide additional insights and a summary of the available evidence of these underlying mechanisms and indicators that could inform future measles CFR estimations.Potential benefit of extended dose schedules of human papillomavirus vaccination in the context of scarce resources and COVID-19 disruptions in low-income and middle-income countries: a mathematical modelling analysis
AbstractBénard, Élodie, Drolet, M., Laprise, J. F., Jit, M., Prem, K., Boily, M. C., & Brisson, M. (n.d.).Publication year
2023Journal title
The Lancet Global HealthVolume
11Issue
1Page(s)
e48-e58AbstractBackground: The WHO Strategic Advisory Group of Experts recommended that an extended interval of 3–5 years between the two doses of the human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine could be considered to alleviate vaccine supply shortages. However, three concerns have limited the introduction of extended schedules: girls could be infected between the two doses, the vaccination coverage for the second dose could be lower at ages 13–14 years than at ages 9–10 years, and identifying girls vaccinated with a first dose to give them the second dose could be difficult. Using mathematical modelling, we examined the potential effect of these concerns on the population-level impact and efficiency of extended dose HPV vaccination schedules. Methods: We used HPV-ADVISE, an individual-based, transmission-dynamic model of multitype HPV infection and disease, calibrated to country-specific data for four low-income and middle-income countries (India, Viet Nam, Uganda, and Nigeria). For the extended dose scenarios, we varied the vaccination coverage of the second dose among girls previously vaccinated, the one-dose vaccine efficacy, and the one-dose vaccine duration of protection. We also examined a strategy in which girls aged 14 years were vaccinated irrespective of their previous vaccination status. We used a scenario of girls-only two-dose vaccination at age 9 years (vaccine=9 valent, vaccine-type efficacy=100%, duration of protection=lifetime, and coverage=80%) as our comparator. We estimated two outcomes: the relative reduction in the age-standardised cervical cancer incidence (population-level impact) and the number of cervical cancers averted per 100 000 doses (efficiency). Findings: Our model projected substantial reductions in cervical cancer incidence over 100 years with the two-dose schedule (79–86% depending on the country), compared with no vaccination. Projections for the 5-year extended schedule, in which the second dose is given only to girls previously vaccinated at age 9 years, were similar to the current two-dose schedule, unless vaccination coverage of the second dose is very low (reductions in cervical cancer incidence of 71–78% assuming 30% coverage at age 14 years among girls vaccinated at age 9 years). However, when the dose at age 14 years is given to girls irrespective of vaccination status and assuming high vaccination coverage, the model projected a substantially greater reduction in cervical cancer incidence compared with the current two-dose schedule (reductions in cervical cancer incidence of 86–93% assuming 70% coverage at age 14 years, irrespective of vaccination status). Efficiency of the extended schedule was greater than the two-dose schedule, even with a drop in vaccination coverage. Interpretation: The three concerns are unlikely to have a substantial effect on the population-level impact of extended dose schedules. Hence, extended dose schedules will likely provide similar cervical cancer reductions as two-dose schedules, while reducing the number of doses required in the short-term, providing a more efficient use of scarce resources, and offering a 5-year time window to reassess the necessity of the second dose. Funding: WHO, Canadian Institute of Health Research Foundation, Fonds de recherche du Québec–Santé, Digital Research Alliance of Canada, and Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.Potential health and economic impact of paediatric vaccination using next-generation influenza vaccines in Kenya: a modelling study
AbstractWaterlow, N. R., Radhakrishnan, S., Dawa, J., Van Leeuwen, E., Procter, S. R., Lambach, P., Bresee, J., Mazur, M., Eggo, R. M., & Jit, M. (n.d.).Publication year
2023Journal title
BMC MedicineVolume
21Issue
1AbstractBackground: Influenza is a major year-round cause of respiratory illness in Kenya, particularly in children under 5. Current influenza vaccines result in short-term, strain-specific immunity and were found in a previous study not to be cost-effective in Kenya. However, next-generation vaccines are in development that may have a greater impact and cost-effectiveness profile. Methods: We expanded a model previously used to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of seasonal influenza vaccines in Kenya to include next-generation vaccines by allowing for enhanced vaccine characteristics and multi-annual immunity. We specifically examined vaccinating children under 5 years of age with improved vaccines, evaluating vaccines with combinations of increased vaccine effectiveness, cross-protection between strains (breadth) and duration of immunity. We evaluated cost-effectiveness using incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) and incremental net monetary benefits (INMBs) for a range of values for the willingness-to-pay (WTP) per DALY averted. Finally, we estimated threshold per-dose vaccine prices at which vaccination becomes cost-effective. Results: Next-generation vaccines can be cost-effective, dependent on the vaccine characteristics and assumed WTP thresholds. Universal vaccines (assumed to provide long-term and broad immunity) are most cost-effective in Kenya across three of four WTP thresholds evaluated, with the lowest median value of ICER per DALY averted ($263, 95% Credible Interval (CrI): $ − 1698, $1061) and the highest median INMBs. At a WTP of $623, universal vaccines are cost-effective at or below a median price of $5.16 per dose (95% CrI: $0.94, $18.57). We also show that the assumed mechanism underlying infection-derived immunity strongly impacts vaccine outcomes. Conclusions: This evaluation provides evidence for country-level decision makers about future next-generation vaccine introduction, as well as global research funders about the potential market for these vaccines. Next-generation vaccines may offer a cost-effective intervention to reduce influenza burden in low-income countries with year-round seasonality like Kenya.Potential population-level effectiveness of one-dose HPV vaccination in low-income and middle-income countries: a mathematical modelling analysis
AbstractBénard, Élodie, Drolet, M., Laprise, J. F., Gingras, G., Jit, M., Boily, M. C., Bloem, P., & Brisson, M. (n.d.).Publication year
2023Journal title
The Lancet Public HealthVolume
8Issue
10Page(s)
e788-e799AbstractBackground: Given the accumulating evidence that one-dose vaccination could provide high and sustained protection against human papillomavirus (HPV) infection and related diseases, we examined the population-level effectiveness and efficiency of one-dose HPV vaccination of girls compared with two-dose vaccination, using mathematical modelling. Methods: In this mathematical modelling study, we used HPV-ADVISE LMIC, an individual-based transmission-dynamic model independently calibrated to four epidemiologically diverse low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs; India, Nigeria, Uganda, and Viet Nam). We parameterised and calibrated the model using sexual behaviour and epidemiological data identified from international population-based datasets and the literature. All base-case vaccination scenarios start in 2023 with the nonavalent vaccine and assumed 80% vaccination coverage with one or two doses. We assumed that two doses of vaccine provide 100% efficacy against vaccine-type infections and a lifelong duration of protection. We examined a non-inferior vaccination scenario for one dose compared with two doses, pessimistic scenarios of lower one-dose vaccine efficacy (85%) or a shorter duration of protection (ie, 20 or 30 years), and the effectiveness of a mitigation scenario in which schedules would switch from one dose to two doses. We also did sensitivity analyses by varying vaccination coverage. We used three outcomes: the relative reduction in cervical cancer incidence, the number of cervical cancers averted, and the number of vaccine doses needed to prevent one cervical cancer. Findings: Assuming non-inferior vaccine characteristics for one dose compared with two doses, the model projections show that two-dose or one-dose routine vaccination of girls aged 9 years (with a multi-age cohort vaccination of girls aged 10–14 years) would avert 12·0 million (80% UI 9·5–14·5) cervical cancers in India, 4·7 million (3·4–5·8) in Nigeria, 2·3 million (1·9–2·6) in Uganda, and 0·4 million (0·2–0·5) in Viet Nam over 100 years. Under pessimistic assumptions of lower one-dose efficacy (85%) or a shorter duration of protection (ie, 30 years), one-dose routine vaccination would avert 69% (61–80) to 94% (92–96) of the cervical cancers averted with two-dose routine vaccination. However, when assuming a duration of protection of 20 years, one-dose routine vaccination would avert substantially fewer cervical cancers (ie, 35% [26–44] to 69% [65–71] of the cervical cancers averted with two-dose routine vaccination). A switch from one-dose to two-dose routine vaccination of girls aged 9 years, with a one-dose catch-up of girls aged 10–14 years, 5 years after the start of the vaccination programme, could mitigate potential losses in cervical cancer prevention from a short one-dose duration of protection (averting 92% [83–98] to 99% [97–100]) of the cervical cancers averted with two-dose routine vaccination). One-dose routine vaccination would result in fewer doses needed to prevent one cervical cancer than two-dose routine vaccination, even if the duration of protection is as low as 20 years. Finally, for countries with two-dose routine vaccination, adding one-dose multi-age cohort vaccination in the first year would provide similar benefits as a two-dose multi-age cohort vaccination, and would be more efficient even under the pessimistic assumptions of lower one-dose vaccine efficacy or duration of protection. Interpretation: One-dose routine vaccination could avert most of the cervical cancers averted with two-dose vaccination while being more efficient, provided the duration of one-dose protection is greater than 20–30 years (depending on the LMIC). The doses saved by introducing one-dose routine vaccination could offer the opportunity to vaccinate girls before they age out of the vaccination window of 9–14 years and, potentially, to vaccinate boys or older age groups. Funding: Fonds de recherche du Québec—Santé, Digital Research Alliance of Canada, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.Protocol for an OpenSAFELY cohort study collecting patient-reported outcome measures using the TPP Airmid smartphone application and linked big data to quantify the health and economic costs of long COVID (OpenPROMPT)
AbstractHerrett, E., Tomlin, K., Lin, L. Y., Tomlinson, L. A., Jit, M., Briggs, A., Marks, M., Sandmann, F., Parry, J., Bates, C., Morley, J., Bacon, S., Butler-Cole, B., Mahalingasivam, V., Dennison, A., Smith, D., Gabriel, E., Mehrkar, A., Goldacre, B., … Eggo, R. M. (n.d.).Publication year
2023Journal title
BMJ openVolume
13Issue
2AbstractIntroduction The impact of long COVID on health-related quality of-life (HRQoL) and productivity is not currently known. It is important to understand who is worst affected by long COVID and the cost to the National Health Service (NHS) and society, so that strategies like booster vaccines can be prioritised to the right people. OpenPROMPT aims to understand the impact of long COVID on HRQoL in adults attending English primary care. Methods and analysis We will ask people to participate in this cohort study through a smartphone app (Airmid), and completing a series of questionnaires held within the app. Questionnaires will ask about HRQoL, productivity and symptoms of long COVID. Participants will be asked to fill in the questionnaires once a month, for 90 days. Questionnaire responses will be linked, where possible, to participants' existing health records from primary care, secondary care, and COVID testing and vaccination data. Analysis will take place using the OpenSAFELY data platform and will estimate the impact of long COVID on HRQoL, productivity and cost to the NHS. Ethics and dissemination The Proportionate Review Sub-Committee of the South Central - Berkshire B Research Ethics Committee has reviewed and approved the study and have agreed that we can ask people to take part (22/SC/0198). Our results will provide information to support long-term care, and make recommendations for prevention of long COVID in the future. Trial registration number NCT05552612.Recent economic evaluation of 1-dose HPV vaccination uses unsupported assumptions
Burger, E., Baussano, I., Kim, J. J., Laprise, J. F., Berkhof, J., Schiller, J. T., Canfell, K., Prem, K., Brisson, M., Jit, M., & Barnabas, R. V. (n.d.). In Vaccine (1–).Publication year
2023Volume
41Issue
16Page(s)
2648-2649Report of the WHO technical consultation on the evaluation of respiratory syncytial virus prevention cost effectiveness in low- and middle-income countries, April 7–8, 2022
AbstractFitzpatrick, M. C., Laufer, R. S., Baral, R., Driscoll, A. J., Feikin, D. R., Fleming, J. A., Jit, M., Kim, S., Koltai, M., Li, Y., Li, X., Nair, H., Neuzil, K. M., Pecenka, C., Sparrow, E., Srikantiah, P., & Ortiz, J. R. (n.d.).Publication year
2023Journal title
VaccineVolume
41Issue
48Page(s)
7047-7059AbstractPolicymakers often rely on impact and cost-effectiveness evaluations to inform decisions about the introduction of health interventions in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs); however, cost-effectiveness results for the same health intervention can differ by the choice of parameter inputs, modelling assumptions, and geography. Anticipating the near-term availability of new respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) prevention products, WHO convened a two-day virtual consultation in April 2022 with stakeholder groups and global experts in health economics, epidemiology, and vaccine implementation. The objective was to review methods, parameterization, and results of existing cost-effectiveness analyses for RSV prevention in LMICs; identify the most influential inputs and data limitations; and recommend and prioritize future data gathering and research to improve RSV prevention impact estimates in LMICs. Epidemiological parameters identified as both influential and uncertain were those associated with RSV hospitalization and death, specifically setting-specific hospitalization rates and RSV-attributable death rates. Influential economic parameters included product price, delivery costs, willingness-to-pay for health on the part of potential donors, and the cost of RSV-associated hospitalization. Some of the influential parameters identified at this meeting should be more precisely measured by further research. Other influential economic parameters that are highly uncertain may not be resolved, and it is appropriate to use sensitivity analyses to explore these within cost-effectiveness evaluations. This report highlights the presentations and major discussions of the meeting.The age profile of respiratory syncytial virus burden in preschool children of low- and middle-income countries: A semi-parametric, meta-regression approach
AbstractAntillón, M., Li, X., Willem, L., Bilcke, J., Investigators, R., Jit, M., & Beutels, P. (n.d.).Publication year
2023Journal title
PLoS MedicineVolume
20Issue
7AbstractBackground AU Respiratory: Pleaseconfirmthatallheadinglevelsarerepresentedcorrectly syncytial virus (RSV) infections are among the primary : causes of death for children under 5 years of age worldwide. A notable challenge with many of the upcoming prophylactic interventions against RSV is their short duration of protection, making the age profile of key interest to the design of prevention strategies. Methods and findings We leverage the RSV data collected on cases, hospitalizations, and deaths in a systematic review in combination with flexible generalized additive mixed models (GAMMs) to characterize the age burden of RSV incidence, hospitalization, and hospital-based case fatality rate (hCFR). Due to the flexible nature of GAMMs, we estimate the peak, median, and mean incidence of infection to inform discussions on the ideal “window of protection” of prophylactic interventions. In a secondary analysis, we reestimate the burden of RSV in all low- and middle-income countries. The peak age of community-based incidence is 4.8 months, and the mean and median age of infection is 18.9 and 14.7 months, respectively. Estimating the age profile using the incidence coming from hospital-based studies yields a slightly younger age profile, in which the peak age of infection is 2.6 months and the mean and median age of infection are 15.8 and 11.6 months, respectively. More severe outcomes, such as hospitalization and in-hospital death have a younger age profile. Children under 6 months of age constitute 10% of the population under 5 years of age but bear 20% to 29% of cases, 28% to 39% of hospitalizations, and 38% to 50% of deaths. On an average year, we estimate 28.23 to 31.34 million cases of RSV, between 2.95 to 3.35 million hospitalizations, and 16,835 to 19,909 in-hospital deaths in low, lower- and upper middle-income countries. In addition, we estimate 17,254 to 23,875 deaths in the community, for a total of 34,114 to 46,485 deaths. Globally, evidence shows that community-based incidence may differ by World Bank Income Group, but not hospital-based incidence, probability of hospitalization, or the probability of in-hospital death (p 0.01, p = 1, p = 0.86, 0.63, respectively). Our study is limited mainly due to the sparsity of the data, especially for low-income countries (LICs). The lack of information for some populations makes detecting heterogeneity between income groups difficult, and differences in access to care may impact the reported burden. Conclusions We have demonstrated an approach to synthesize information on RSV outcomes in a statistically principled manner, and we estimate that the age profile of RSV burden depends on whether information on incidence is collected in hospitals or in the community. Our results suggest that the ideal prophylactic strategy may require multiple products to avert the risk among preschool children.The cost and cost-effectiveness of novel tuberculosis vaccines in low- and middle-income countries: A modeling study
AbstractPortnoy, A., Clark, R. A., Quaife, M., Weerasuriya, C. K., Mukandavire, C., Bakker, R., Deol, A. K., Malhotra, S., Gebreselassie, N., Zignol, M., Sim, S. Y., Hutubessy, R. C., Baena, I. G., Nishikiori, N., Jit, M., White, R. G., & Menzies, N. A. (n.d.).Publication year
2023Journal title
PLoS MedicineVolume
20Issue
1AbstractBackground Tuberculosis (TB) is preventable and curable but eliminating it has proven challenging. Safe and effective TB vaccines that can rapidly reduce disease burden are essential for achieving TB elimination. We assessed future costs, cost-savings, and cost-effectiveness of introducing novel TB vaccines in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) for a range of product characteristics and delivery strategies. Methods and findings We developed a system of epidemiological and economic models, calibrated to demographic, epidemiological, and health service data in 105 LMICs. For each country, we assessed the likely future course of TB-related outcomes under several vaccine introduction scenarios, compared to a “no-new-vaccine” counterfactual. Vaccine scenarios considered 2 vaccine product profiles (1 targeted at infants, 1 at adolescents/adults), both assumed to prevent progression to active TB. Key economic inputs were derived from the Global Health Cost Consortium, World Health Organization (WHO) patient cost surveys, and the published literature. We estimated the incremental impact of vaccine introduction for a range of health and economic outcomes. In the base-case, we assumed a vaccine price of $4.60 and used a 1× per-capita gross domestic product (GDP) cost-effectiveness threshold (both varied in sensitivity analyses). Vaccine introduction was estimated to require substantial near-term resources, offset by future cost-savings from averted TB burden. From a health system perspective, adolescent/adult vaccination was cost-effective in 64 of 105 LMICs. From a societal perspective (including productivity gains and averted patient costs), adolescent/adult vaccination was projected to be cost-effective in 73 of 105 LMICs and cost-saving in 58 of 105 LMICs, including 96% of countries with higher TB burden. When considering the monetized value of health gains, we estimated that introduction of an adolescent/adult vaccine could produce $283 to 474 billion in economic benefits by 2050. Limited data availability required assumptions and extrapolations that may omit important country-level heterogeneity in epidemiology and costs. Conclusions TB vaccination would be highly impactful and cost-effective in most LMICs. Further efforts are needed for future development, adoption, and implementation of novel TB vaccines.The effectiveness of pay-it-forward in addressing HPV vaccine delay and increasing uptake among 15–18-year-old adolescent girls compared to user-paid vaccination: a study protocol for a two-arm randomized controlled trial in China
AbstractLi, Y., Qin, C., Qiu, S., He, Y., Pang, L., Xu, X., Yim, V. W. C., Tang, S., Du, H., Gong, W., Yang, F., Tucker, J. D., Tang, W., Wang, Y., Lin, L., Jit, M., Song, W., Li, C., Smith, J., … Wu, D. (n.d.).Publication year
2023Journal title
BMC public healthVolume
23Issue
1AbstractBackground: Human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination could prevent cervical and other HPV-associated cancers attributable to vaccine-associated HPV types. However, HPV vaccination coverage among women aged 9–18 years old is low in China. Common barriers include poor financial affordability, minimal public engagement, and low confidence in domestically produced HPV vaccines. Pay-it-forward offers an individual a free or subsidized service then an opportunity to voluntarily donate and/or create a postcard message to support future people. This study aims to assess the effectiveness of pay-it-forward as compared to standard-of-care self-paid vaccination to improve HPV vaccine uptake among adolescent girls aged 15–18 years, who are left out in the current pilot free HPV vaccination task force in some parts of China. Methods: This is a two-arm randomized controlled trial in Chengdu, China. Eligible adolescent girls (via caregivers) will be randomly selected and recruited through four community health centers (one in the most developed urban areas, one in higher middle-income and one in lower middle-income suburban areas, and one in the least developed rural areas) using the resident registration list. A total of 320 participants will be randomized into two study arms (user-paid versus pay-it-forward vaccination) in a 1:1 ratio. The intervention assignment will be blinded to recruiters and participants using envelop concealment until the research assistants open the envelop to determine which treatment to deliver to each individual. The primary outcome of the study will be HPV vaccine uptake by administrative data. Secondary outcomes include costs, vaccine hesitancy, and the completion rates of the 3-dose HPV vaccination series. Discussion: This study will investigate an innovative pay-it-forward strategy’s effectiveness and economic costs to improve HPV vaccination among 15–18-year-old adolescent girls. Study findings will have implications for increasing HPV vaccine uptake in places where HPV vaccines are provided for a fee. Trial registration: Chinese Clinical Trial Registry (ChiCTR), ChiCTR2200055542. Registered on 11 January 2022. Graphical Abstract: [Figure not available: see fulltext.].The Full Value of Vaccine Assessments (FVVA): a framework for assessing and communicating the value of vaccines for investment and introduction decision-making
AbstractHutubessy, R., Lauer, J. A., Giersing, B., Sim, S. Y., Jit, M., Kaslow, D., & Botwright, S. (n.d.). In BMC Medicine (1–).Publication year
2023Volume
21Issue
1AbstractBackground: Several economic obstacles can deter the development and use of vaccines. This can lead to limited product options for some diseases, delays in new product development, and inequitable access to vaccines. Although seemingly distinct, these obstacles are actually interrelated and therefore need to be addressed through a single over-arching strategy encompassing all stakeholders. Methods: To help overcome these obstacles, we propose a new approach, the Full Value of Vaccines Assessments (FVVA) framework, to guide the assessment and communication of the value of a vaccine. The FVVA framework is designed to facilitate alignment across key stakeholders and to enhance decision-making around investment in vaccine development, policy-making, procurement, and introduction, particularly for vaccines intended for use in low- and middle-income countries. Results: The FVVA framework has three key elements. First, to enhance assessment, existing value-assessment methods and tools are adapted to include broader benefits of vaccines as well as opportunity costs borne by stakeholders. Second, to improve decision-making, a deliberative process is required to recognize the agency of stakeholders and to ensure country ownership of decision-making and priority setting. Third, the FVVA framework provides a consistent and evidence-based approach that facilitates communication about the full value of vaccines, helping to enhance alignment and coordination across diverse stakeholders. Conclusions: The FVVA framework provides guidance for stakeholders organizing global-level efforts to promote investment in vaccines that are priorities for LMICs. By providing a more holistic view of the benefits of vaccines, its application also has the potential to encourage greater take-up by countries, thereby leading to more sustainable and equitable impacts of vaccines and immunization programmes.The impact of alternative delivery strategies for novel tuberculosis vaccines in low-income and middle-income countries: a modelling study
AbstractClark, R. A., Mukandavire, C., Portnoy, A., Weerasuriya, C. K., Deol, A., Scarponi, D., Iskauskas, A., Bakker, R., Quaife, M., Malhotra, S., Gebreselassie, N., Zignol, M., Hutubessy, R. C., Giersing, B., Jit, M., Harris, R. C., Menzies, N. A., & White, R. G. (n.d.).Publication year
2023Journal title
The Lancet Global HealthVolume
11Issue
4Page(s)
e546-e555AbstractBackground: Tuberculosis is a leading infectious cause of death worldwide. Novel vaccines will be required to reach global targets and reverse setbacks resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic. We estimated the impact of novel tuberculosis vaccines in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) in several delivery scenarios. Methods: We calibrated a tuberculosis model to 105 LMICs (accounting for 93% of global incidence). Vaccine scenarios were implemented as the base-case (routine vaccination of those aged 9 years and one-off vaccination for those aged 10 years and older, with country-specific introduction between 2028 and 2047, and 5-year scale-up to target coverage); accelerated scale-up similar to the base-case, but with all countries introducing vaccines in 2025, with instant scale-up; and routine-only (similar to the base-case, but including routine vaccination only). Vaccines were assumed to protect against disease for 10 years, with 50% efficacy. Findings: The base-case scenario would prevent 44·0 million (95% uncertainty range 37·2–51·6) tuberculosis cases and 5·0 million (4·6–5·4) tuberculosis deaths before 2050, compared with equivalent estimates of cases and deaths that would be predicted to occur before 2050 with no new vaccine introduction (the baseline scenario). The accelerated scale-up scenario would prevent 65·5 million (55·6–76·0) cases and 7·9 million (7·3–8·5) deaths before 2050, relative to baseline. The routine-only scenario would prevent 8·8 million (95% uncertainty range 7·6–10·1) cases and 1·1 million (0·9–1·2) deaths before 2050, relative to baseline. Interpretation: Our results suggest novel tuberculosis vaccines could have substantial impact, which will vary depending on delivery strategy. Including a one-off vaccination campaign will be crucial for rapid impact. Accelerated introduction—at a pace similar to that seen for COVID-19 vaccines—would increase the number of lives saved before 2050 by around 60%. Investment is required to support vaccine development, manufacturing, prompt introduction, and scale-up. Funding: WHO (2020/985800-0). Translations: For the French, Spanish, Italian and Dutch translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.The potential cost-effectiveness of next generation influenza vaccines in England and Wales: A modelling analysis
AbstractWaterlow, N. R., Procter, S. R., Van Leeuwen, E., Radhakrishnan, S., Jit, M., & Eggo, R. M. (n.d.).Publication year
2023Journal title
VaccineVolume
41Issue
41Page(s)
6017-6024AbstractNext generation influenza vaccines are in development and have the potential for widespread health and economic benefits. Determining the potential health and economic impact for these vaccines is needed to drive investment in bringing these vaccines to the market, and to inform which groups public health policies on influenza vaccination should target. We used a mathematical modelling approach to estimate the epidemiological impact and cost-effectiveness of next generation influenza vaccines in England and Wales. We used data from an existing fitted model, and evaluated new vaccines with different characteristics ranging from improved vaccines with increased efficacy duration and breadth of protection, to universal vaccines, defined in line with the World Health Organisation (WHO) Preferred Product Characteristics (PPC). We calculated the cost effectiveness of new vaccines in comparison to the current seasonal vaccination programme. We calculated and compared the Incremental Cost-Effectiveness Ratio and Incremental Net Monetary Benefit for each new vaccine type. All analysis was conducted in R. We show that next generation influenza vaccines may result in a 21% to 77% reduction in influenza infections, dependent on vaccine characteristics. Our economic modelling shows that using any of these next generation vaccines at 2019 coverage levels would be highly cost-effective at a willingness to pay threshold of £20,000 for a range of vaccine prices. The vaccine threshold price for the best next generation vaccines in £-2019 is £230 (95%CrI £192 - £269) per dose, but even minimally-improved influenza vaccines could be priced at £18 (95%CrI £16 - £21) per dose and still remain cost-effective. This evaluation demonstrates the promise of next generation influenza vaccines for impact on influenza epidemics, and likely cost-effectiveness profiles. We have provided evidence towards a full value of vaccines assessment which bolsters the investment case for development and roll-out of next-generation influenza vaccines.The potential impact of novel tuberculosis vaccine introduction on economic growth in low- and middle-income countries: A modeling study
AbstractPortnoy, A., Arcand, J. L., Clark, R. A., Weerasuriya, C. K., Mukandavire, C., Bakker, R., Patouillard, E., Gebreselassie, N., Zignol, M., Jit, M., White, R. G., & Menzies, N. A. (n.d.).Publication year
2023Journal title
PLoS MedicineVolume
20Issue
7AbstractBackground Most individuals developing tuberculosis (TB) are working age adults living in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). The resulting disability and death impact economic productivity and burden health systems. New TB vaccine products may reduce this burden. In this study, we estimated the impact of introducing novel TB vaccines on gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 105 LMICs. Methods and findings We adapted an existing macroeconomic model to simulate country-level GDP trends between 2020 and 2080, comparing scenarios for introduction of hypothetical infant and adolescent/adult vaccines to a no-new-vaccine counterfactual. We parameterized each scenario using estimates of TB-related mortality, morbidity, and healthcare spending from linked epidemiological and costing models. We assumed vaccines would be introduced between 2028 and 2047 and estimated incremental changes in GDP within each country from introduction to 2080, in 2020 US dollars. We tested the robustness of results to alternative analytic specifications. Both vaccine scenarios produced greater cumulative GDP in the modeled countries over the study period, equivalent to $1.6 (95% uncertainty interval: $0.8, 3.0) trillion for the adolescent/adult vaccine and $0.2 ($0.1, 0.4) trillion for the infant vaccine. These GDP gains were substantially lagged relative to the time of vaccine introduction, particularly for the infant vaccine. GDP gains resulting from vaccine introduction were concentrated in countries with higher current TB incidence and earlier vaccine introduction. Results were sensitive to secular trends in GDP growth but relatively robust to other analytic assumptions. Uncertain projections of GDP could alter these projections and affect the conclusions drawn by this analysis. Conclusions Under a range of assumptions, introducing novel TB vaccines would increase economic growth in LMICs.The potential impact of novel tuberculosis vaccines on health equity and financial protection in low-income and middle-income countries
AbstractPortnoy, A., Clark, R. A., Weerasuriya, C. K., Mukandavire, C., Quaife, M., Bakker, R., Garcia Baena, I., Gebreselassie, N., Zignol, M., Jit, M., White, R. G., & Menzies, N. A. (n.d.).Publication year
2023Journal title
BMJ Global HealthVolume
8Issue
7AbstractIntroduction One in two patients developing tuberculosis (TB) in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) faces catastrophic household costs. We assessed the potential financial risk protection from introducing novel TB vaccines, and how health and economic benefits would be distributed across income quintiles. Methods We modelled the impact of introducing TB vaccines meeting the World Health Organization preferred product characteristics in 105 LMICs. For each country, we assessed the distribution of health gains, patient costs and household financial vulnerability following introduction of an infant vaccine and separately for an adolescent/adult vaccine, compared with a 'no-new-vaccine' counterfactual. Patient-incurred direct and indirect costs of TB disease exceeding 20% of annual household income were defined as catastrophic. Results Over 2028-2050, the health gains resulting from vaccine introduction were greatest in lower income quintiles, with the poorest 2 quintiles in each country accounting for 56% of total LMIC TB cases averted. Over this period, the infant vaccine was estimated to avert US$5.9 (95% uncertainty interval: US$5.3-6.5) billion in patient-incurred total costs, and the adolescent/adult vaccine was estimated to avert US$38.9 (US$36.6-41.5) billion. Additionally, 3.7 (3.3-4.1) million fewer households were projected to face catastrophic costs with the infant vaccine and 22.9 (21.4-24.5) million with the adolescent/adult vaccine, with 66% of gains accruing in the poorest 2 income quintiles. Conclusion Under a range of assumptions, introducing novel TB vaccines would reduce income-based inequalities in the health and household economic outcomes of TB in LMICs.Transplacental transfer efficiency of maternal antibodies against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus and dynamics of naturally acquired antibodies in Chinese children: a longitudinal, paired mother–neonate cohort study
AbstractLi, M., Wang, W., Chen, J., Zhan, Z., Xu, M., Liu, N., Ren, L., You, L., Zheng, W., Shi, H., Zhao, Z., Huang, C., Chen, X., Zheng, N., Lu, W., Zhou, X., Zhou, J., Liao, Q., Yang, J., … Yu, H. (n.d.).Publication year
2023Journal title
The Lancet MicrobeVolume
4Issue
11Page(s)
e893-e902AbstractBackground: The 2009 pandemic H1N1 influenza A virus (A(H1N1)pdm09 virus) evolves rapidly and has continued to cause severe infections in children since its emergence in 2009. We aimed to characterise the kinetics of maternally and naturally acquired antibodies against historical A(H1N1)pdm09 strains and to assess the extent to which the response to heterologous strains following infection or vaccination affects observed A(H1N1)pdm09 strain-specific antibody titres in a Chinese paediatric population. Methods: In this retrospective study, we used residual serum samples from 528 mother-neonate pairs from a non-interventional, longitudinal cohort study in southern China conducted from Sept 20, 2013, to Aug 24, 2018, from six local hospitals in Anhua County, Hunan Province, China. Mother-neonate pairs were eligible for inclusion if the neonates were born after Sept 20, 2013, and their mothers had resided in the study sites for at least 3 months. We tested samples with a haemagglutination inhibition (HAI) assay to measure antibody levels against three historical A(H1N1)pdm09 strains that were antigenically similar to the strains that circulated during the 2009 pandemic (A/Hunan-Kaifu/SWL4204/2009 [SWL4204/09 strain], A/Hunan-Daxiang/SWL1277/2016 [SWL1277/16 strain], and A/Hunan-Yanfeng/SWL185/2018 [SWL185/18 strain]). We also determined the seroprevalence, geometric mean titres (GMTs), transfer ratio of maternal antibodies, and the dynamics of maternally and naturally acquired antibodies in children, from birth to 3 years of age. Findings: 1066 mother-neonate pairs were enrolled in the original cohort between Sept 20, 2013, and Oct 14, 2015. Of these, 528 pairs (523 mothers, 528 neonates) were selected for the present study. The median age of the mothers was 25 years (IQR 23 to 29). 291 (55%) of 528 children were boys and 237 (45%) were girls, and most children (452 [86%]) were breastfed before the age of 6 months. The GMTs and the seroprevalence for the SWL4204/09 strain were higher than those for the SWL1277/16 and SWL185/18 strains among mothers (GMTs: 10·4 [95% CI 9·8 to 11·1] vs 9·3 [8·7 to 9·8] vs 8·0 [7·5 to 8·4], p<0·0001; seroprevalence: 11·1% [95% CI 8·5 to 14·1] vs 6·9% [4·9 to 9·4] vs 4·6% [3·0 to 6·8], p=0·0003) and among neonates (GMTs: 10·7 [10·0 to 11·5] vs 9·4 [8·8 to 10·0] vs 8·1 [7·6 to 8·6], p<0·0001; seroprevalence: 13·4% [10·7 to 16·7] vs 8·7% [6·5 to 11·5] vs 6·1% [4·2 to 8·5], p=0·0002). Regardless of the A(H1N1)pdm09-specific strain, maternal antibodies could be transferred efficiently via the placenta (mean transfer ratios: 1·10 for SWL4204/09 vs 1·09 for SWL1277/16 vs 1·06 for SWL185/18; p=0·93). The A(H1N1)pdm09 strain-specific antibodies waned below the protective threshold of 1:40 within 2 months after birth. After maternal antibody waning, there were periodic increases and decreases in HAI antibody titres against three A(H1N1)pdm09 strains, and such increases were all significantly associated with a higher immune response to heterologous strains. Vaccination against the SWL4204/09 strain was associated with a poor response to the SWL185/18 strain (β–0·20, 95% CI –0·28 to –0·13; p<0·0001). Interpretation: Our findings suggest low pre-existing immunity against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus among unvaccinated Chinese adult female and paediatric populations. This evidence, together with the rapid decay of maternal antibodies and the observed cross-reactivity among different A(H1N1)pdm09 strains, highlights the importance of accelerating maternal and paediatric influenza vaccination in China. Funding: The Key Program of the National Natural Science Foundation of China. Translation: For the Chinese translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.Using Age-Specific Values for Pediatric HRQoL in Cost-Effectiveness Analysis: Is There a Problem to Be Solved? If So, How?
AbstractDevlin, N. J., Pan, T., Sculpher, M., Jit, M., Stolk, E., Rowen, D., Van Hout, B., & Norman, R. (n.d.).Publication year
2023Journal title
PharmacoEconomicsVolume
41Issue
10Page(s)
1165-1174AbstractValue sets for the EQ-5D-Y-3L published to date appear to have distinctive characteristics compared with value sets for corresponding adult instruments: in many cases, the value for the worst health state is higher and there are fewer values < 0. The aim of this paper is to consider how and why values for child and adult health differ; and what the implications of that are for the use of EQ-5D-Y-3L values in economic evaluations to inform healthcare resource allocation decisions. We posit four potential explanations for the differences in values: (a) The wording of severity labels may mean the worst problems on the EQ-5D-Y-3L are descriptively less severe than those on the EQ-5D-5L; (b) Adults may genuinely consider that children are less badly affected than adults by descriptively similar health issues. That is, for any given health problem, adult respondents in valuation studies consider children’s overall health-related quality of life (HRQoL) on average to be higher than that for adults; (c) Values are being sought by eliciting adults’ stated preferences for HRQoL in another person, rather than in themselves (regardless of whether the ‘other person’ concerned is a child); and (d) The need to elicit preferences for child HRQoL that are anchored at dead = 0 invokes special considerations regarding children’s survival. Existing evidence does not rule out the possibility that (c) and (d) exert an upward bias in values. We consider the implications of that for the interpretation and use of values for pediatric HRQoL. Alternative methods for valuing children’s HRQoL in a manner that is not ‘age specific’ are possible and may help to avoid issues of non-comparability. Use of these methods would place the onus on health technology assessment bodies to reflect any special considerations regarding child quality-adjusted life-year gains.Vaccine Value Profiles
Giersing, B., Karron, R., Tufet-Bayona, M., Trotter, C., Lambach, P., & Jit, M. (n.d.).Publication year
2023Journal title
VaccineVolume
41Page(s)
S1-S2Value profile for respiratory syncytial virus vaccines and monoclonal antibodies
AbstractFleming, J. A., Baral, R., Higgins, D., Khan, S., Kochar, S., Li, Y., Ortiz, J. R., Cherian, T., Feikin, D., Jit, M., Karron, R. A., Limaye, R. J., Marshall, C., Munywoki, P. K., Nair, H., Newhouse, L. C., Nyawanda, B. O., Pecenka, C., Regan, K., … Sparrow, E. (n.d.).Publication year
2023Journal title
VaccineVolume
41Page(s)
S7-S40AbstractRespiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is the predominant cause of acute lower respiratory infection (ALRI) in young children worldwide, yet no licensed RSV vaccine exists to help prevent the millions of illnesses and hospitalizations and tens of thousands of young lives taken each year. Monoclonal antibody (mAb) prophylaxis exists for prevention of RSV in a small subset of very high-risk infants and young children, but the only currently licensed product is impractical, requiring multiple doses and expensive for the low-income settings where the RSV disease burden is greatest. A robust candidate pipeline exists to one day prevent RSV disease in infant and pediatric populations, and it focuses on two promising passive immunization approaches appropriate for low-income contexts: maternal RSV vaccines and long-acting infant mAbs. Licensure of one or more candidates is feasible over the next one to three years and, depending on final product characteristics, current economic models suggest both approaches are likely to be cost-effective. Strong coordination between maternal and child health programs and the Expanded Program on Immunization will be needed for effective, efficient, and equitable delivery of either intervention. This ‘Vaccine Value Profile’ (VVP) for RSV is intended to provide a high-level, holistic assessment of the information and data that are currently available to inform the potential public health, economic and societal value of pipeline vaccines and vaccine-like products. This VVP was developed by a working group of subject matter experts from academia, non-profit organizations, public private partnerships and multi-lateral organizations, and in collaboration with stakeholders from the WHO headquarters. All contributors have extensive expertise on various elements of the RSV VVP and collectively aimed to identify current research and knowledge gaps. The VVP was developed using only existing and publicly available information.What are economic costs and when should they be used in health economic studies?
AbstractTurner, H. C., Sandmann, F. G., Downey, L. E., Orangi, S., Teerawattananon, Y., Vassall, A., & Jit, M. (n.d.).Publication year
2023Journal title
Cost Effectiveness and Resource AllocationVolume
21Issue
1AbstractEconomic analyses of healthcare interventions are an important consideration in evidence-based policymaking. A key component of such analyses is the costs of interventions, for which most are familiar with using budgets and expenditures. However, economic theory states that the true value of a good/service is the value of the next best alternative forgone as a result of using the resource and therefore observed prices or charges do not necessarily reflect the true economic value of resources. To address this, economic costs are a fundamental concept within (health) economics. Crucially, they are intended to reflect the resources’ opportunity costs (the forgone opportunity to use those resources for another purpose) and they are based on the value of the resource's next-best alternative use that has been forgone. This is a broader conceptualization of a resource’s value than its financial cost and recognizes that resources can have a value that may not be fully captured by their market price and that by using a resource it makes it unavailable for productive use elsewhere. Importantly, economic costs are preferred over financial costs for any health economic analyses aimed at informing decisions regarding the optimum allocation of the limited/competing resources available for healthcare (such as health economic evaluations), and they are also important when considering the replicability and sustainability of healthcare interventions. However, despite this, economic costs and the reasons why they are used is an area that can be misunderstood by professionals without an economic background. In this paper, we outline to a broader audience the principles behind economic costs and when and why they should be used within health economic analyses. We highlight that the difference between financial and economic costs and what adjustments are needed within cost calculations will be influenced by the context of the study, the perspective, and the objective.What, how and who: Cost-effectiveness analyses of COVID-19 vaccination to inform key policies in Nigeria
AbstractRuiz, F. J., Torres-Rueda, S., Pearson, C. A., Bergren, E., Okeke, C., Procter, S. R., Madriz-Montero, A., Jit, M., Vassall, A., & Uzochukwu, B. S. (n.d.).Publication year
2023Journal title
PLOS Global Public HealthVolume
3Issue
3AbstractWhile safe and efficacious COVID-19 vaccines have achieved high coverage in high-income settings, roll-out remains slow in sub-Saharan Africa. By April 2022, Nigeria, a country of over 200 million people, had only distributed 34 million doses. To ensure the optimal use of health resources, cost-effectiveness analyses can inform key policy questions in the health technology assessment process. We carried out several cost-effectiveness analyses exploring different COVID-19 vaccination scenarios in Nigeria. In consultation with Nigerian stakeholders, we addressed three key questions: what vaccines to buy, how to deliver them and what age groups to target. We combined an epidemiological model of virus transmission parameterised with Nigeria specific data with a costing model that incorporated local resource use assumptions and prices, both for vaccine delivery as well as costs associated with care and treatment of COVID-19. Scenarios of vaccination were compared with no vaccination. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were estimated in terms of costs per disability- adjusted life years averted and compared to commonly used cost-effectiveness ratios. Viral vector vaccines are cost-effective (or cost saving), particularly when targeting older adults. Despite higher efficacy, vaccines employing mRNA technologies are less cost-effective due to high current dose prices. The method of delivery of vaccines makes little difference to the cost-effectiveness of the vaccine. COVID-19 vaccines can be highly effective and cost-effective (as well as cost-saving), although an important determinant of the latter is the price per dose and the age groups prioritised for vaccination. From a health system perspective, viral vector vaccines may represent most cost-effective choices for Nigeria, although this may change with price negotiation.“We usually see a lot of delay in terms of coming for or seeking care”: an expert consultation on COVID testing and care pathways in seven low- and middle-income countries
AbstractBonnet, G., Bimba, J., Chavula, C., Chifamba, H. N., Divala, T., Lescano, A. G., Majam, M., Mbo, D., Suwantika, A. A., Tovar, M. A., Yadav, P., Corbett, E. L., Vassall, A., & Jit, M. (n.d.).Publication year
2023Journal title
BMC health services researchVolume
23Issue
1AbstractBackground: Rapid diagnostic testing may support improved treatment of COVID patients. Understanding COVID testing and care pathways is important for assessing the impact and cost-effectiveness of testing in the real world, yet there is limited information on these pathways in low-and-middle income countries (LMICs). We therefore undertook an expert consultation to better understand testing policies and practices, clinical screening, the profile of patients seeking testing or care, linkage to care after testing, treatment, lessons learnt and expected changes in 2023. Methods: We organized a qualitative consultation with ten experts from seven LMICs (India, Indonesia, Malawi, Nigeria, Peru, South Africa, and Zimbabwe) identified through purposive sampling. We conducted structured interviews during six regional consultations, and undertook a thematic analysis of responses. Results: Participants reported that, after initial efforts to scale-up testing, the policy priority given to COVID testing has declined. Comorbidities putting patients at heightened risk (e.g., diabetes) mainly relied on self-identification. The decision to test following clinical screening was highly context-/location-specific, often dictated by local epidemiology and test availability. When rapid diagnostic tests were available, public sector healthcare providers tended to rely on them for diagnosis (alongside PCR for Asian/Latin American participants), while private sector providers predominantly used polymerase chain reaction (PCR) tests. Positive test results were generally taken at ‘face value’ by clinicians, although negative tests with a high index of suspicion may be confirmed with PCR. However, even with a positive result, patients were not always linked to care in a timely manner because of reluctance to receiving care or delays in returning to care centres upon clinical deterioration. Countries often lacked multiple components of the range of therapeutics advised in WHO guidelines: notably so for oral antivirals designed for high-risk mild patients. Severely ill patients mostly received corticosteroids and, in higher-resourced settings, tocilizumab. Conclusions: Testing does not always prompt enhanced care, due to reluctance on the part of patients and limited therapeutic availability within clinical settings. Any analysis of the impact or cost-effectiveness of testing policies post pandemic needs to either consider investment in optimal treatment pathways or constrain estimates of benefits based on actual practice.A global assessment of the impact of school closure in reducing COVID-19 spread
AbstractWu, J. T., Mei, S., Luo, S., Leung, K., Liu, D., Lv, Q., Liu, J., Li, Y., Prem, K., Jit, M., Weng, J., Feng, T., Zheng, X., & Leung, G. M. (n.d.).Publication year
2022Journal title
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering SciencesVolume
380Issue
2214AbstractProlonged school closure has been adopted worldwide to control COVID-19. Indeed, UN Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization figures show that two-thirds of an academic year was lost on average worldwide due to COVID-19 school closures. Such pre-emptive implementation was predicated on the premise that school children are a core group for COVID-19 transmission. Using surveillance data from the Chinese cities of Shenzhen and Anqing together, we inferred that compared with the elderly aged 60 and over, children aged 18 and under and adults aged 19-59 were 75% and 32% less susceptible to infection, respectively. Using transmission models parametrized with synthetic contact matrices for 177 jurisdictions around the world, we showed that the lower susceptibility of school children substantially limited the effectiveness of school closure in reducing COVID-19 transmissibility. Our results, together with recent findings that clinical severity of COVID-19 in children is lower, suggest that school closure may not be ideal as a sustained, primary intervention for controlling COVID-19. This article is part of the theme issue 'Data science approach to infectious disease surveillance'.