Mark Jit
Mark Jit
Scroll
Chair and Professor of the Department of Global and Environmental Health
-
Professional overview
-
Mark Jit is the inaugural chair and a professor in the Department of Global and Environmental Health. He was formerly head of the Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology & Dynamics and co-director of the Global Health Economics Centre (GHECO) at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM). He holds honorary appointments at LSHTM as well as the University of Hong Kong (HKU) and the National University of Singapore (NUS).
Dr. Jit’s research focuses on epidemiological and economic modeling of vaccines to support evidence-based public health decision making. He has published papers covering a range of vaccine-preventable or potentially vaccine-preventable diseases including COVID-19, measles, HPV, pneumococcus, rotavirus, influenza, Group B Streptococcus, dengue, EV71 and RSV as well as methodological papers advancing the ways vaccines are evaluated. This work has influenced many of the major changes to immunization policy in countries around the world. Dr. Jit has served on a number of expert advisory committees in the UK as well as for international organizations such as the World Health Organization. He also organises or contributes to academic and professional courses on vaccine modeling, economics and decision science around the world.
Dr. Jit received his BSc and PhD in Mathematics from University College London, specializing in mathematical biology, and a Master of Public Health degree from King’s College London.
Visit Dr. Jit's Google Scholar's page to learn more about his research portfolio.
-
Education
-
BSc, Mathematics, University College LondonPhD, Mathematics, University College LondonMPH, Public Health, King's College London
-
Honors and awards
-
Clarivate Highly Cited Researcher (20222023)Fellow of the Academy of Medical Sciences (2023)Training Fund Award, Health Protection Agency (2007)Andrew Rosen Prize, University College London (1999)Institute of Mathematics and its Applications Award (1998)Departmental Research Studentship, University College London (1998)Student Union Commendation, University College London (1997)Fillon Prize, University College London (1996)Pathfinder Award, University College London (1995)
-
Publications
Publications
Vaccine value profile for Klebsiella pneumoniae
AbstractDangor, Z., Benson, N., Berkley, J. A., Bielicki, J., Bijsma, M. W., Broad, J., Buurman, E. T., Cross, A., Duffy, E. M., Holt, K. E., Iroh Tam, P. Y., Jit, M., Karampatsas, K., Katwere, M., Kwatra, G., Laxminarayan, R., Le Doare, K., Mboizi, R., Micoli, F., … Madhi, S. A. (n.d.).Publication year
2024Journal title
VaccineVolume
42Issue
19Page(s)
S125-S141AbstractKlebsiella pneumoniae causes community- and healthcare-associated infections in children and adults. Globally in 2019, an estimated 1.27 million (95% Uncertainty Interval [UI]: 0.91–1.71) and 4.95 million (95% UI: 3.62–6.57) deaths were attributed to and associated with bacterial antimicrobial resistance (AMR), respectively. K. pneumoniae was the second leading pathogen in deaths attributed to AMR resistant bacteria. Furthermore, the rise of antimicrobial resistance in both community- and hospital-acquired infections is a concern for neonates and infants who are at high risk for invasive bacterial disease. There is a limited antibiotic pipeline for new antibiotics to treat multidrug resistant infections, and vaccines targeted against K. pneumoniae are considered to be of priority by the World Health Organization. Vaccination of pregnant women against K. pneumoniae could reduce the risk of invasive K. pneumoniae disease in their young offspring. In addition, vulnerable children, adolescents and adult populations at risk of K. pneumoniae disease with underlying diseases such as immunosuppression from underlying hematologic malignancy, chemotherapy, patients undergoing abdominal and/or urinary surgical procedures, or prolonged intensive care management are also potential target groups for a K. pneumoniae vaccine. A ‘Vaccine Value Profile’ (VVP) for K. pneumoniae, which contemplates vaccination of pregnant women to protect their babies from birth through to at least three months of age and other high-risk populations, provides a high-level, holistic assessment of the available information to inform the potential public health, economic and societal value of a pipeline of K. pneumoniae vaccines and other preventatives and therapeutics. This VVP was developed by a working group of subject matter experts from academia, non-profit organizations, public–private partnerships, and multi-lateral organizations, and in collaboration with stakeholders from the WHO. All contributors have extensive expertise on various elements of the K. pneumoniae VVP and collectively aimed to identify current research and knowledge gaps. The VVP was developed using only existing and publicly available information.Adding new childhood vaccines to China's National Immunization Program: evidence, benefits, and priorities
AbstractZhang, H., Lai, X., Patenaude, B. N., Jit, M., & Fang, H. (n.d.).Publication year
2023Journal title
The Lancet Public HealthVolume
8Issue
12Page(s)
e1016-e1024AbstractChina's National Immunization Program has made remarkable achievements but does not include several important childhood vaccines that are readily available in the private market, such as pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV), rotavirus vaccine, Haemophilus influenzae serotype b (Hib) vaccine, and varicella vaccine. We reviewed the literature to assess these four non-National Immunization Program vaccines in terms of their disease burdens, coverage, inequalities, and cost-effectiveness in China and aimed to recommend priorities for introducing them to the National Immunization Program. Based on our calculations using the available evidence, incorporating these vaccines into China's National Immunization Program in 2019 could have averted 11 761 deaths among children younger than 5 years, accounting for 10·29% of the total deaths in children younger than 5 years and reducing the mortality rate from 7·8 per 1000 to 7·0 per 1000. The review showed that 13-valent PCV (PCV13) had the lowest and most inequitable coverage but could prevent the highest number of deaths. In a budgetary analysis for the cohort of newborns in 2023, we estimated that the projected aggregate government costs were US$1954·92 million for PCV13, $1273·13 million for pentavalent rotavirus vaccine, $415·30 million for Hib vaccine, and $221·64 million for varicella vaccine. Our overall multicriteria decision analysis suggested the following priority order for introducing these four non-programme vaccines to the National Immunization Program to benefit the Chinese population: PCV13, rotavirus vaccine, Hib vaccine, and varicella vaccine.Analyses of the return on investment of public health interventions: a scoping review and recommendations for future studies
AbstractTurner, H. C., Hori, Y., Revill, P., Rattanavipapong, W., Arai, K., Nonvignon, J., Jit, M., & Teerawattananon, Y. (n.d.).Publication year
2023Journal title
BMJ Global HealthVolume
8Issue
8AbstractReturn on investment (ROI) analysis is increasingly being used for evaluating the value for money of public health interventions. Given its potential role for informing health policies, it is important that there is a more comprehensive understanding of ROI analysis within the global health field. To address this gap in the literature, we conducted a scoping review of recent research articles reporting an ROI metric for a health intervention within the public sector in any country setting. The database search was limited to literature published in English and studies published between 1 January 2018 and 14 June 2021. Uses and settings where the ROI metric is being applied, key methodological features of the calculations and the types of economic benefits included were extracted. 118 relevant studies were included within this scoping review. We found that ROI analyses of health interventions differed between those that only included fiscal savings (such as prevented medical expenses) and those which incorporated a wider range of benefits (such as monetised health benefits). This highlights the variation in the definition of ROI analyses and supports the finding that ROI analyses are used for a range of different research questions/purposes within the healthcare sector. We also found that the methodologies used in ROI calculations were inconsistent and often poorly reported. This review demonstrates that there is notable variation in the methodology surrounding recent ROI calculations of healthcare interventions, as well as the definition of ROI analysis. We recommend that ROI metrics should be carefully interpreted before they are used to inform policy decisions regarding the allocation of healthcare resources. To improve the consistency of future studies, we also set out recommended use cases for ROI analysis and a reporting checklist.Assessing the impacts of COVID-19 vaccination programme’s timing and speed on health benefits, cost-effectiveness, and relative affordability in 27 African countries
AbstractLiu, Y., Procter, S. R., Pearson, C. A., Montero, A. M., Torres-Rueda, S., Asfaw, E., Uzochukwu, B., Drake, T., Bergren, E., Eggo, R. M., Ruiz, F., Ndembi, N., Nonvignon, J., Jit, M., & Vassall, A. (n.d.).Publication year
2023Journal title
BMC MedicineVolume
21Issue
1AbstractBackground: The COVID-19 vaccine supply shortage in 2021 constrained roll-out efforts in Africa while populations experienced waves of epidemics. As supply improves, a key question is whether vaccination remains an impactful and cost-effective strategy given changes in the timing of implementation. Methods: We assessed the impact of vaccination programme timing using an epidemiological and economic model. We fitted an age-specific dynamic transmission model to reported COVID-19 deaths in 27 African countries to approximate existing immunity resulting from infection before substantial vaccine roll-out. We then projected health outcomes (from symptomatic cases to overall disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) averted) for different programme start dates (01 January to 01 December 2021, n = 12) and roll-out rates (slow, medium, fast; 275, 826, and 2066 doses/million population-day, respectively) for viral vector and mRNA vaccines by the end of 2022. Roll-out rates used were derived from observed uptake trajectories in this region. Vaccination programmes were assumed to prioritise those above 60 years before other adults. We collected data on vaccine delivery costs, calculated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) compared to no vaccine use, and compared these ICERs to GDP per capita. We additionally calculated a relative affordability measure of vaccination programmes to assess potential nonmarginal budget impacts. Results: Vaccination programmes with early start dates yielded the most health benefits and lowest ICERs compared to those with late starts. While producing the most health benefits, fast vaccine roll-out did not always result in the lowest ICERs. The highest marginal effectiveness within vaccination programmes was found among older adults. High country income groups, high proportions of populations over 60 years or non-susceptible at the start of vaccination programmes are associated with low ICERs relative to GDP per capita. Most vaccination programmes with small ICERs relative to GDP per capita were also relatively affordable. Conclusion: Although ICERs increased significantly as vaccination programmes were delayed, programmes starting late in 2021 may still generate low ICERs and manageable affordability measures. Looking forward, lower vaccine purchasing costs and vaccines with improved efficacies can help increase the economic value of COVID-19 vaccination programmes.Challenges and opportunities in developing a Shigella-containing combination vaccine for children in low- and middle-income countries: Report of an expert convening
AbstractRiddle, M. S., Louis Bourgeois, A., Clifford, A., Jeon, S., Giersing, B. K., Jit, M., Tufet Bayona, M., Ovitt, J., & Hausdorff, W. P. (n.d.).Publication year
2023Journal title
VaccineVolume
41Issue
16Page(s)
2634-2644AbstractThe gram-negative bacterium Shigella is an enteric pathogen responsible for significant morbidity and mortality due primarily to severe diarrhea and dysentery, mainly among children younger than five years of age living in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Long considered a priority target for vaccine development, recent scientific advances have led to a number of promising Shigella vaccine candidates now entering advanced stages of clinical testing. Yet, there is no guarantee that even a highly efficacious Shigella vaccine will be recommended, prioritized, purchased, and widely adopted—especially if it requires additional doses in the immunization schedule and/or visits within the immunization program. This uncertainty is due to a variety of factors, including continuing declines in Shigella-specific and overall diarrheal disease mortality rates, the increasing complexity and cost of infant immunization programs in LMICs, and the recent availability of other high-priority vaccines. Since combining a Shigella vaccine with an existing infant vaccine would conceivably increase its attractiveness, there is a need to systematically consider the challenges determining the public health value, clinical development, manufacturing, licensure, policy recommendations, and financing for a Shigella-containing combination vaccine. The international non-governmental health organization PATH convened an independent panel of 34 subject matter experts across academic, industry, philanthropic, and global health sectors to discuss hypothetical combinations of a notional parenteral Shigella vaccine with three existing vaccines in order to begin exploring the challenges associated with their development. The resulting insights and recommendations from this meeting contribute to PATH's broader effort to evaluate the public health value of potential Shigella vaccines. They may also help guide future combination vaccine development efforts more broadly.Correspondence to: Estimating the full health and economic benefits of current and future influenza vaccines
AbstractWaterlow, N. R., Procter, S. R., Eggo, R. M., & Jit, M. (n.d.).Publication year
2023Journal title
BMC MedicineVolume
21Issue
1AbstractWe recently published an article in BMC Medicine looking at the potential health and economic impact of paediatric vaccination using next-generation influenza vaccines in Kenya: a modelling study. In their commentary on our article, Lafond et al. highlight the potential importance of the wider benefits of vaccination on cost-effectiveness. Whilst we agree with many points raised in the commentary, we think it raises further interesting discussion points, specifically around model complexity, model assumptions and data availability. These points are both relevant to this manuscript but have wider implications for vaccine cost-effectiveness studies.Cost-effectiveness of measles and rubella elimination in low-income and middle-income countries
AbstractLevin, A., Burgess, C., Shendale, S., Morgan, W., Cw Hutubessy, R., & Jit, M. (n.d.).Publication year
2023Journal title
BMJ Global HealthVolume
8Issue
7AbstractBackground Since 2000, the incidence of measles and rubella has declined as measles-rubella (MR) vaccine coverage increased due to intensified routine immunisation (RI) and supplementary immunisation activities (SIAs). The World Health Assembly commissioned a feasibility assessment of eliminating measles and rubella. The objective of this paper is to present the findings of cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) of ramping up MR vaccination with a goal of eliminating transmission in every country. Methods We used projections of impact of routine and SIAs during 2018-2047 for four scenarios of ramping up MR vaccination. These were combined with economic parameters to estimate costs and disability-adjusted life years averted under each scenario. Data from the literature were used for estimating the cost of increasing routine coverage, timing of SIAs and introduction of rubella vaccine in countries. Results The CEA showed that all three scenarios with ramping up coverage above the current trend were more cost-effective in most countries than the 2018 trend for both measles and rubella. When the measles and rubella scenarios were compared with each other, the most cost-effective scenario was likely to be the most accelerated one. Even though this scenario is costlier, it averts more cases and deaths and substantially reduces the cost of treatment. Conclusions The Intensified Investment scenario is likely the most cost-effective of the vaccination scenarios evaluated for reaching both measles and rubella disease elimination. Some data gaps on costs of increasing coverage were identified and future efforts should focus on filling these gaps.Cost-effectiveness of monoclonal antibody and maternal immunization against respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) in infants: Evaluation for six European countries
Failed generating bibliography.AbstractPublication year
2023Journal title
VaccineVolume
41Issue
9Page(s)
1623-1631AbstractBackground: Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) imposes a substantial burden on pediatric hospital capacity in Europe. Promising prophylactic interventions against RSV including monoclonal antibodies (mAb) and maternal immunizations (MI) are close to licensure. Therefore, we aimed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of potential mAb and MI interventions against RSV in infants, for six European countries. Methods: We used a static cohort model to compare costs and health effects of four intervention programs to no program and to each other: year-round MI, year-round mAb, seasonal mAb (October to April), and seasonal mAb plus a catch-up program in October. Input parameters were obtained from national registries and literature. Influential input parameters were identified with the expected value of partial perfect information and extensive scenario analyses (including the impact of interventions on wheezing and asthma). Results: From the health care payer perspective, and at a price of €50 per dose (mAb and MI), seasonal mAb plus catch-up was cost-saving in Scotland, and cost-effective for willingness-to-pay (WTP) values ≥€20,000 (England, Finland) or €30,000 (Denmark) per quality adjusted life-year (QALY) gained for all scenarios considered, except when using ICD-10 based hospitalization data. For the Netherlands, seasonal mAb was preferred (WTP value: €30,000-€90,000) for most scenarios. For Veneto region (Italy), either seasonal mAb with or without catch-up or MI was preferred, depending on the scenario and WTP value. From a full societal perspective (including leisure time lost), the seasonal mAb plus catch-up program was cost-saving for all countries except the Netherlands. Conclusion: The choice between a MI or mAb program depends on the level and duration of protection, price, availability, and feasibility of such programs, which should be based on the latest available evidence. Future research should focus on measuring accurately age-specific RSV-attributable hospitalizations in very young children.Cost-effectiveness of pharmaceutical strategies to prevent respiratory syncytial virus disease in young children: a decision-support model for use in low-income and middle-income countries
AbstractMahmud, S., Baral, R., Sanderson, C., Pecenka, C., Jit, M., Li, Y., & Clark, A. (n.d.).Publication year
2023Journal title
BMC MedicineVolume
21Issue
1AbstractBackground: Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a leading cause of respiratory disease in young children. A number of mathematical models have been used to assess the cost-effectiveness of RSV prevention strategies, but these have not been designed for ease of use by multidisciplinary teams working in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). Methods: We describe the UNIVAC decision-support model (a proportionate outcomes static cohort model) and its approach to exploring the potential cost-effectiveness of two RSV prevention strategies: a single-dose maternal vaccine and a single-dose long-lasting monoclonal antibody (mAb) for infants. We identified model input parameters for 133 LMICs using evidence from the literature and selected national datasets. We calculated the potential cost-effectiveness of each RSV prevention strategy (compared to nothing and to each other) over the lifetimes of all children born in the year 2025 and compared our results to a separate model published by PATH. We ran sensitivity and scenario analyses to identify the inputs with the largest influence on the cost-effectiveness results. Results: Our illustrative results assuming base case input assumptions for maternal vaccination ($3.50 per dose, 69% efficacy, 6 months protection) and infant mAb ($3.50 per dose, 77% efficacy, 5 months protection) showed that both interventions were cost-saving compared to status quo in around one-third of 133 LMICs, and had a cost per DALY averted below 0.5 times the national GDP per capita in the remaining LMICs. UNIVAC generated similar results to a separate model published by PATH. Cost-effectiveness results were most sensitive to changes in the price, efficacy and duration of protection of each strategy, and the rate (and cost) of RSV hospital admissions. Conclusions: Forthcoming RSV interventions (maternal vaccines and infant mAbs) are worth serious consideration in LMICs, but there is a good deal of uncertainty around several influential inputs, including intervention price, efficacy, and duration of protection. The UNIVAC decision-support model provides a framework for country teams to build consensus on data inputs, explore scenarios, and strengthen the local ownership and policy-relevance of results.Cost-Effectiveness of Respiratory Syncytial Virus Preventive Interventions in Children: A Model Comparison Study
Failed generating bibliography.AbstractPublication year
2023Journal title
Value in HealthVolume
26Issue
4Page(s)
508-518AbstractObjectives: Model-based cost-effectiveness analyses on maternal vaccine (MV) and monoclonal antibody (mAb) interventions against respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) use context-specific data and produce varied results. Through model comparison, we aim to characterize RSV cost-effectiveness models and examine drivers for their outputs. Methods: We compared 3 static and 2 dynamic models using a common input parameter set for a hypothetical birth cohort of 100 000 infants. Year-round and seasonal programs were evaluated for MV and mAb interventions, using available evidence during the study period (eg, phase III MV and phase IIb mAb efficacy). Results: Three static models estimated comparable medically attended (MA) cases averted versus no intervention (MV, 1019-1073; mAb, 5075-5487), with the year-round MV directly saving ∼€1 million medical and €0.3 million nonmedical costs, while gaining 4 to 5 discounted quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) annually in <1-year-olds, and mAb resulting in €4 million medical and €1.5 million nonmedical cost savings, and 21 to 25 discounted QALYs gained. In contrast, both dynamic models estimated fewer MA cases averted (MV, 402-752; mAb, 3362-4622); one showed an age shift of RSV cases, whereas the other one reported many non-MA symptomatic cases averted, especially by MV (2014). These differences can be explained by model types, assumptions on non-MA burden, and interventions’ effectiveness over time. Conclusions: Our static and dynamic models produced overall similar hospitalization and death estimates, but also important differences, especially in non-MA cases averted. Despite the small QALY decrement per non-MA case, their larger number makes them influential for the costs per QALY gained of RSV interventions.Estimating global and regional between-country inequality in routine childhood vaccine coverage in 195 countries and territories from 2019 to 2021: a longitudinal study
AbstractLai, X., Zhang, H., Pouwels, K. B., Patenaude, B., Jit, M., & Fang, H. (n.d.).Publication year
2023Journal title
EClinicalMedicineVolume
60AbstractBackground: Global routine childhood vaccine coverage has plateaued in recent years, and the COVID-19 pandemic further disrupted immunisation services. We estimated global and regional inequality of routine childhood vaccine coverage from 2019 to 2021, particularly assessing the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: We used longitudinal data for 11 routine childhood vaccines from the WHO-UNICEF Estimates of National Immunization Coverage (WUENIC), including 195 countries and territories in 2019–2021. The slope index of inequality (SII) and relative index of inequality (RII) of each vaccine were calculated through linear regression to express the difference in coverage between the top and bottom 20% of countries at the global and regional levels. We also explored inequalities of routine childhood vaccine coverage by WHO regions and unvaccinated children by income groups. Findings: Globally between January 1, 2019 and December 31, 2021, most childhood vaccines showed a declining trend in coverage, and therefore an increasing number of unvaccinated children, especially in low-income and lower-middle-income countries. Between-country inequalities existed for all 11 routine childhood vaccine coverage indicators. The SII for the third dose of diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis-containing vaccine (DTP3) coverage was 20.1 percentage points (95% confidence interval: 13.7, 26.5) in 2019, and rose to 23.6 (17.5, 30.0) in 2020 and 26.9 (20.0, 33.8) in 2021. Similar patterns were found for RII results and in other routine vaccines. In 2021, the second dose of measles-containing vaccine (MCV2) coverage had the highest global absolute inequality (31.2, [21.5–40.8]), and completed rotavirus vaccine (RotaC) coverage had the lowest (7.8, [–3.9, 19.5]). Among six WHO regions, the European Region consistently had the lowest inequalities, and the Western Pacific Region had the largest inequalities for many indicators, although both increased from 2019 to 2021. Interpretation: Global and regional inequalities of routine childhood vaccine coverage persisted and substantially increased from 2019 to 2021. These findings reveal economic-related inequalities by vaccines, regions, and countries, and underscore the importance of reducing such inequalities. These inequalities were widened during the COVID-19 pandemic, resulting in even lower coverage and more unvaccinated children in low-income countries. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.Estimating national-level measles case–fatality ratios in low-income and middle-income countries: an updated systematic review and modelling study
AbstractSbarra, A. N., Mosser, J. F., Jit, M., Ferrari, M., Ramshaw, R. E., O’Connor, P., Krause, L. K., Rogowski, E. L., & Portnoy, A. (n.d.).Publication year
2023Journal title
The Lancet Global HealthVolume
11Issue
4Page(s)
e516-e524AbstractBackground: To understand the current measles mortality burden, and to mitigate the future burden, it is crucial to have robust estimates of measles case fatalities. Estimates of measles case–fatality ratios (CFRs) that are specific to age, location, and time are essential to capture variations in underlying population-level factors, such as vaccination coverage and measles incidence, which contribute to increases or decreases in CFRs. In this study, we updated estimates of measles CFRs by expanding upon previous systematic reviews and implementing a meta-regression model. Our objective was to use all information available to estimate measles CFRs in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) by country, age, and year. Methods: For this systematic review and meta-regression modelling study, we searched PubMed on Dec 31, 2020 for all available primary data published from Jan 1, 1980 to Dec 31, 2020, on measles cases and fatalities occurring up to Dec 31, 2019 in LMICs. We included studies that previous systematic reviews had included or which contained primary data on measles cases and deaths from hospital-based, community-based, or surveillance-based reports, including outbreak investigations. We excluded studies that were not in humans, or reported only data that were only non-primary, or on restricted populations (eg, people living with HIV), or on long-term measles mortality (eg, death from subacute sclerosing panencephalitis), and studies that did not include country-level data or relevant information on measles cases and deaths, or were for a high-income country. We extracted summary data on measles cases and measles deaths from studies that fitted our inclusion and exclusion criteria. Using these data and a suite of covariates related to measles CFRs, we implemented a Bayesian meta-regression model to produce estimates of measles CFRs from 1990 to 2019 by location and age group. This study was not registered with PROSPERO or otherwise. Findings: We identified 2705 records, of which 208 sources contained information on both measles cases and measles deaths in LMICS and were included in the review. Between 1990 and 2019, CFRs substantially decreased in both community-based and hospital-based settings, with consistent patterns across age groups. For people aged 0–34 years, we estimated a mean CFR for 2019 of 1·32% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 1·28–1·36) among community-based settings and 5·35% (5·08–5·64) among hospital-based settings. We estimated the 2019 CFR in community-based settings to be 3·03% (UI 2·89–3·16) for those younger than 1 year, 1·63% (1·58–1·68) for age 1–4 years, 0·84% (0·80–0·87) for age 5–9 years, and 0·67% (0·64–0·70) for age 10–14 years. Interpretation: Although CFRs have declined between 1990 and 2019, there are still large heterogeneities across locations and ages. One limitation of this systematic review is that we were unable to assess measles CFR among particular populations, such as refugees and internally displaced people. Our updated methodological framework and estimates could be used to evaluate the effect of measles control and vaccination programmes on reducing the preventable measles mortality burden. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation; Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance; and the US National Institutes of Health.Estimating the cost-effectiveness of maternal vaccination and monoclonal antibodies for respiratory syncytial virus in Kenya and South Africa
AbstractKoltai, M., Moyes, J., Nyawanda, B., Nyiro, J., Munywoki, P. K., Tempia, S., Li, X., Antillon, M., Bilcke, J., Flasche, S., Beutels, P., Nokes, D. J., Cohen, C., & Jit, M. (n.d.).Publication year
2023Journal title
BMC MedicineVolume
21Issue
1AbstractBackground: Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) causes a substantial burden of acute lower respiratory infection in children under 5 years, particularly in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Maternal vaccine (MV) and next-generation monoclonal antibody (mAb) candidates have been shown to reduce RSV disease in infants in phase 3 clinical trials. The cost-effectiveness of these biologics has been estimated using disease burden data from global meta-analyses, but these are sensitive to the detailed age breakdown of paediatric RSV disease, for which there have previously been limited data. Methods: We use original hospital-based incidence data from South Africa (ZAF) and Kenya (KEN) collected between 2010 and 2018 of RSV-associated acute respiratory infection (ARI), influenza-like illness (ILI), and severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) as well as deaths with monthly age-stratification, supplemented with data on healthcare-seeking behaviour and costs to the healthcare system and households. We estimated the incremental cost per DALY averted (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio or ICER) of public health interventions by MV or mAb for a plausible range of prices (5–50 USD for MV, 10–125 USD for mAb), using an adjusted version of a previously published health economic model of RSV immunisation. Results: Our data show higher disease incidence for infants younger than 6 months of age in the case of Kenya and South Africa than suggested by earlier projections from community incidence-based meta-analyses of LMIC data. Since MV and mAb provide protection for these youngest age groups, this leads to a substantially larger reduction of disease burden and, therefore, more favourable cost-effectiveness of both interventions in both countries. Using the latest efficacy data and inferred coverage levels based on antenatal care (ANC-3) coverage (KEN: 61.7%, ZAF: 75.2%), our median estimate of the reduction in RSV-associated deaths in children under 5 years in Kenya is 10.5% (95% CI: 7.9, 13.3) for MV and 13.5% (10.7, 16.4) for mAb, while in South Africa, it is 27.4% (21.6, 32.3) and 37.9% (32.3, 43.0), respectively. Starting from a dose price of 5 USD, in Kenya, net cost (for the healthcare system) per (undiscounted) DALY averted for MV is 179 (126, 267) USD, rising to 1512 (1166, 2070) USD at 30 USD per dose; for mAb, it is 684 (543, 895) USD at 20 USD per dose and 1496 (1203, 1934) USD at 40 USD per dose. In South Africa, a MV at 5 USD per dose would be net cost-saving for the healthcare system and net cost per DALY averted is still below the ZAF’s GDP per capita at 40 USD dose price (median: 2350, 95% CI: 1720, 3346). For mAb in ZAF, net cost per DALY averted is 247 (46, 510) USD at 20 USD per dose, rising to 2028 (1565, 2638) USD at 50 USD per dose and to 6481 (5364, 7959) USD at 125 USD per dose. Conclusions: Incorporation of new data indicating the disease burden is highly concentrated in the first 6 months of life in two African settings suggests that interventions against RSV disease may be more cost-effective than previously estimated.Estimating the global impact of rotavirus vaccines on child mortality
AbstractClark, A., Mahmud, S., Debellut, F., Pecenka, C., Jit, M., Perin, J., Tate, J., Soeters, H. M., Black, R. E., Santosham, M., & Sanderson, C. (n.d.).Publication year
2023Journal title
International Journal of Infectious DiseasesVolume
137Page(s)
90-97AbstractObjectives: We estimated the global impact of rotavirus vaccines on deaths among children under five years old by year. Methods: We used a proportionate outcomes model with a finely disaggregated age structure to estimate rotavirus deaths prevented by vaccination over the period 2006-2019 in 186 countries. We ran deterministic and probabilistic uncertainty analyses and compared our estimates to surveillance-based estimates in 20 countries. Results: We estimate that rotavirus vaccines prevented 139,000 under-five rotavirus deaths (95% uncertainty interval 98,000-201,000) in the period 2006-2019. In 2019 alone, rotavirus vaccines prevented 15% (95% uncertainty interval 11-21%) of under-five rotavirus deaths (0.5% of child mortality). Assuming global use of rotavirus vaccines and coverage equivalent to other co-administered vaccines could prevent 37% of under-five rotavirus deaths (1.2% of child mortality). Our estimates were sensitive to the choice of rotavirus mortality burden data and several vaccine impact modeling assumptions. The World Health Organization's recommendation to remove age restrictions in 2012 could have prevented up to 17,000 rotavirus deaths in the period 2013-2019. Our modeled estimates of rotavirus vaccine impact were broadly consistent with estimates from post-vaccination surveillance sites. Conclusion: Rotavirus vaccines have made a valuable contribution to global public health. Enhanced rotavirus mortality prevention strategies are needed in countries with high mortality in under-5-year-old children.Global impact and cost-effectiveness of one-dose versus two-dose human papillomavirus vaccination schedules: a comparative modelling analysis
AbstractPrem, K., Choi, Y. H., Bénard, Élodie, Burger, E. A., Hadley, L., Laprise, J. F., Regan, M. C., Drolet, M., Sy, S., Abbas, K., Portnoy, A., Kim, J. J., Brisson, M., & Jit, M. (n.d.).Publication year
2023Journal title
BMC MedicineVolume
21Issue
1AbstractBackground: To eliminate cervical cancer as a public health problem, the World Health Organization had recommended routine vaccination of adolescent girls with two doses of the human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine before sexual initiation. However, many countries have yet to implement HPV vaccination because of financial or logistical barriers to delivering two doses outside the infant immunisation programme. Methods: Using three independent HPV transmission models, we estimated the long-term health benefits and cost-effectiveness of one-dose versus two-dose HPV vaccination, in 188 countries, under scenarios in which one dose of the vaccine gives either a shorter duration of full protection (20 or 30 years) or lifelong protection but lower vaccine efficacy (e.g. 80%) compared to two doses. We simulated routine vaccination with the 9-valent HPV vaccine in 10-year-old girls at 80% coverage for the years 2021–2120, with a 1-year catch-up campaign up to age 14 at 80% coverage in the first year of the programme. Results: Over the years 2021–2120, one-dose vaccination at 80% coverage was projected to avert 115.2 million (range of medians: 85.1–130.4) and 146.8 million (114.1–161.6) cervical cancers assuming one dose of the vaccine confers 20 and 30 years of protection, respectively. Should one dose of the vaccine provide lifelong protection at 80% vaccine efficacy, 147.8 million (140.6–169.7) cervical cancer cases could be prevented. If protection wanes after 20 years, 65 to 889 additional girls would need to be vaccinated with the second dose to prevent one cervical cancer, depending on the epidemiological profiles of the country. Across all income groups, the threshold cost for the second dose was low: from 1.59 (0.14–3.82) USD in low-income countries to 44.83 (3.75–85.64) USD in high-income countries, assuming one dose confers 30-year protection. Conclusions: Results were consistent across the three independent models and suggest that one-dose vaccination has similar health benefits to a two-dose programme while simplifying vaccine delivery, reducing costs, and alleviating vaccine supply constraints. The second dose may become cost-effective if there is a shorter duration of protection from one dose, cheaper vaccine and vaccination delivery strategies, and high burden of cervical cancer.Health and economic impact of delaying large-scale HPV vaccination and screening implementation on cervical cancer in China: a modelling study
AbstractGao, M., Hu, S., Zhao, X., You, T., Jit, M., Liu, Y., Qiao, Y., Zhao, F., & Wang, C. (n.d.).Publication year
2023Journal title
The Lancet Regional Health - Western PacificVolume
36AbstractBackground: Current uptake of HPV vaccination and screening in China is far below World Health Organization 2030 targets for cervical cancer elimination. We quantified health and economic losses of delaying large-scale HPV vaccination and screening implementation in China. Methods: We used a previously validated transmission model to project lifetime health benefits, costs, effectiveness, and timeline for cervical cancer elimination of alternative scenarios, including combining HPV vaccination initiated from 2022 to 2030 with screening in different modalities and coverage increase rates, as well as screening alone. All women living or projected to be born in China during 2022–2100 were considered. We employed a societal perspective. Findings: Regardless of vaccine type, immediate large-scale vaccination initiated in 2022 and achieving 70% coverage of HPV-based screening in 2030 (no-delay scenario) would be the least costly and most effective. Compared with the no-delay scenario, delaying vaccination by eight years would result in 434,000–543,000 additional cervical cancer cases, 138,000–178,000 deaths, and $2863–4437 million costs, and delay elimination by 9–10 years. Even with immediate vaccination, the gradual scale-up of LBC-based screening to 70% coverage in 2070 would result in 2,530,000–3,060,000 additional cases, 909,000–1,040,000 deaths, and $5098–5714 million costs compared with no-delay scenario, and could not achieve elimination if domestic 2vHPV or 4vHPV vaccines are used (4.09–4.21 cases per 100,000 woman in 2100). Interpretation: Delaying large-scale HPV vaccination and/or high-performance screening implementation has detrimental consequences for cervical cancer morbidity, mortality, and expenditure. These findings should spur health authorities to expedite large-scale vaccine rollout and improve screening. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (INV-031449 and INV-003174) and CAMS Innovation Fund for Medical Sciences (CIFMS) (2021-I2M-1-004).Health effects of routine measles vaccination and supplementary immunisation activities in 14 high-burden countries: a Dynamic Measles Immunization Calculation Engine (DynaMICE) modelling study
AbstractAuzenbergs, M., Fu, H., Abbas, K., Procter, S. R., Cutts, F. T., & Jit, M. (n.d.).Publication year
2023Journal title
The Lancet Global HealthVolume
11Issue
8Page(s)
e1194-e1204AbstractBackground: WHO recommends at least 95% population coverage with two doses of measles-containing vaccine (MCV). Most countries worldwide use routine services to offer a first dose of measles-containing vaccine (MCV1) and later, a second dose of measles-containing vaccine (MCV2). Many countries worldwide conduct supplementary immunisation activities (SIAs), offering vaccination to all people in a specific age range irrespective of previous vaccination history. We aimed to estimate the relative effects of each dose and delivery route in 14 countries with high measles burden. Methods: We used an age-structured compartmental dynamic model, the Dynamic Measles Immunization Calculation Engine (DynaMICE), to assess the effects of different vaccination strategies on measles susceptibility and burden during 2000–20 in 14 countries with high measles incidence (containing 53% of the global birth cohort and 78% of the global measles burden). Country-specific routine MCV1 and MCV2 coverage data during 1980–2020 were obtained from the WHO and UNICEF Estimates of National Immunization Coverage database for all modelled countries and SIA data were obtained from the WHO summary of measles and rubella SIAs. We estimated the incremental health effects of different vaccination strategies using prevented cases of measles and deaths from measles and their efficiency using the incremental number needed to vaccinate (NNV) to prevent an additional measles case. Findings: Compared with no vaccination, MCV1 implementation was estimated to have prevented 824 million cases of measles and 9·6 million deaths from measles, with a median NNV of 1·41 (IQR 1·35–1·44). Adding routine MCV2 to MCV1 was estimated to have prevented 108 million cases and 404 270 deaths, whereas adding SIAs to MCV1 was estimated to have prevented 256 million cases and 4·4 million deaths. Despite larger incremental effects, adding SIAs to MCV1 (median incremental NNV 6·02, 5·30–7·68) showed reduced efficiency compared with adding routine MCV2 (5·41, 4·76–6·11). Interpretation: Vaccination strategies, including non-selective SIAs, reach a greater proportion of children who are unvaccinated and reduce measles burden more than MCV2 alone, but efficiency is lower because of the wide age range targeted by SIAs. This analysis provides information to help improve the health effects and efficiency of measles vaccination strategies. The interplay between MCV1, MCV2, and SIAs should be considered when planning future measles vaccination strategies. Funding: Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.Health-related quality of life and economic burden of childhood pneumonia in China: a multiregion study
AbstractGao, J., Fan, J., Zhou, H., Jit, M., & Wang, P. (n.d.).Publication year
2023Journal title
BMJ Paediatrics OpenVolume
7Issue
1AbstractObjective To systematically investigate the health-related quality of life (HRQOL) and economic burden of children with pneumonia in different regions of China. Study design The study recruited a series of children under 5 years hospitalised for pneumonia in Shanghai, Zhengzhou and Kunming from January to October 2019. Health utility was assessed using the proxy version of EQ-5D-Y by interviewing patients’ guardians face to face. The assessment was administered twice at patients’ admission and discharge. Cost incurred for receiving the hospitalisation was collected. Multiple linear regression and quantile regression were used to explore factors of EQ-5D-Y Health Utility Score (HUS) and costs, respectively. Results A total of 501 paediatric patients with a median age (IQR) of 1.5 (0.83–2.71) years were included in the analysis. The mean HUS (SD) of the patients was 0.78 (0.18) at admission, and increased to 0.96 (0.10) at discharge. Some patients (14.2%) still felt worried, sad or unhappy after hospitalisation. The mean hospitalisation cost and total cost were RMB5859 (€773) and RMB6439, respectively. The HUS was lower and the economic burden was heavier for the children in Zhengzhou. Apart from region, type of work, insurance status and hospital days were also related to the baseline HUS or HUS increment after treatment; insurance status, Visual Analogue Scale score at discharge, guardians’ employment and hospitalisation days were associated with the costs. Conclusion The children with pneumonia have poor baseline HRQOL, and many of them still have psychological well being problems after treatment. The economic burden varied significantly across regions and is heavy for the patients’ families in less developed areas (ie, Zhengzhou and Kunming).Immunogenicity and seroefficacy of 10-valent and 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccines: a systematic review and network meta-analysis of individual participant data
AbstractFeng, S., McLellan, J., Pidduck, N., Roberts, N., Higgins, J. P., Choi, Y., Izu, A., Jit, M., Madhi, S. A., Mulholland, K., Pollard, A. J., Temple, B., & Voysey, M. (n.d.).Publication year
2023Journal title
EClinicalMedicineVolume
61AbstractBackground: Vaccination of infants with pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCV) is recommended by the World Health Organization. Evidence is mixed regarding the differences in immunogenicity and efficacy of the different pneumococcal vaccines. Methods: In this systematic-review and network meta-analysis, we searched the Cochrane Library, Embase, Global Health, Medline, clinicaltrials.gov and trialsearch.who.int up to February 17, 2023 with no language restrictions. Studies were eligible if they presented data comparing the immunogenicity of either PCV7, PCV10 or PCV13 in head-to-head randomised trials of young children under 2 years of age, and provided immunogenicity data for at least one time point after the primary vaccination series or the booster dose. Publication bias was assessed via Cochrane's Risk Of Bias due to Missing Evidence tool and comparison-adjusted funnel plots with Egger's test. Individual participant level data were requested from publication authors and/or relevant vaccine manufacturers. Outcomes included the geometric mean ratio (GMR) of serotype-specific IgG and the relative risk (RR) of seroinfection. Seroinfection was defined for each individual as a rise in antibody between the post-primary vaccination series time point and the booster dose, evidence of presumed subclinical infection. Seroefficacy was defined as the RR of seroinfection. We also estimated the relationship between the GMR of IgG one month after priming and the RR of seroinfection by the time of the booster dose. The protocol is registered with PROSPERO, ID CRD42019124580. Findings: 47 studies were eligible from 38 countries across six continents. 28 and 12 studies with data available were included in immunogenicity and seroefficacy analyses, respectively. GMRs comparing PCV13 vs PCV10 favoured PCV13 for serotypes 4, 9V, and 23F at 1 month after primary vaccination series, with 1.14- to 1.54- fold significantly higher IgG responses with PCV13. Risk of seroinfection prior to the time of booster dose was lower for PCV13 for serotype 4, 6B, 9V, 18C and 23F than for PCV10. Significant heterogeneity and inconsistency were present for most serotypes and for both outcomes. Two-fold higher antibody after primary vaccination was associated with a 54% decrease in risk of seroinfection (RR 0.46, 95% CI 0.23–0.96). Interpretation: Serotype-specific differences were found in immunogenicity and seroefficacy between PCV13 and PCV10. Higher antibody response after vaccination was associated with a lower risk of subsequent infection. These findings could be used to compare PCVs and optimise vaccination strategies. Funding: The NIHR Health Technology Assessment Programme.Impact and cost-effectiveness of measles vaccination through microarray patches in 70 low-income and middle-income countries: mathematical modelling and early-stage economic evaluation
AbstractFu, H., Abbas, K., Malvolti, S., Gregory, C., Ko, M., Amorij, J. P., & Jit, M. (n.d.).Publication year
2023Journal title
BMJ Global HealthVolume
8Issue
11AbstractBackground Microarray patches (MAPs) are a promising technology being developed to reduce barriers to vaccine delivery based on needles and syringes (N&S). To address the evidence gap on the public health value of applying this potential technology to immunisation programmes, we evaluated the health impact on measles burden and cost-effectiveness of introducing measles-rubella MAPs (MR-MAPs) in 70 low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). Methods We used an age-structured dynamic model of measles transmission and vaccination to project measles cases, deaths and disability-adjusted life-years during 2030–2040. Compared with the baseline scenarios with continuing current N&S-based practice, we evaluated the introduction of MR-MAPs under different measles vaccine coverage projections and MR-MAP introduction strategies. Costs were calculated based on the ingredients approach, including direct cost of measles treatment, vaccine procurement and vaccine delivery. Model-based burden and cost estimates were derived for individual countries and country income groups. We compared the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of introducing MR-MAPs to health opportunity costs. Results MR-MAP introduction could prevent 27%–37% of measles burden between 2030 and 2040 in 70 LMICs, compared with the N&S-only immunisation strategy. The largest health impact could be achieved under lower coverage projection and accelerated introduction strategy, with 39 million measles cases averted. Measles treatment cost is a key driver of the net cost of introduction. In countries with a relatively higher income, introducing MR-MAPs could be a cost-saving intervention due to reduced treatment costs. Compared with country-specific health opportunity costs, introducing MR-MAPs would be cost-effective in 16%–81% of LMICs, depending on the MR-MAPs procurement prices and vaccine coverage projections. Conclusions Introducing MR-MAPs in LMICs can be a cost-effective strategy to revitalise measles immunisation programmes with stagnant uptake and reach undervaccinated children. Sustainable introduction and uptake of MR-MAPs has the potential to improve vaccine equity within and between countries and accelerate progress towards measles elimination.Influenza vaccine uptake among children and older adults in China: a secondary analysis of a quasi-experimental study
AbstractDu, Y., Jin, C., Jit, M., Chantler, T., Lin, L., Larson, H. J., Li, J., Gong, W., Yang, F., Ren, N., Cheng, W., Zhou, Y., Tang, W., Tucker, J. D., & Wu, D. (n.d.).Publication year
2023Journal title
BMC Infectious DiseasesVolume
23Issue
1AbstractBackground: Influenza vaccination is the key to prevent influenza-related disease, especially among high-risk populations. However, influenza vaccine uptake in China is low. This secondary analysis of a quasi-experimental trial aimed to understand factors associated with influenza vaccine uptake among children and older people stratified by funding context. Methods: A total of 225 children (aged 0.5-8 years) and 225 older people (aged 60 years or above) were recruited from three clinics (rural, suburban and urban) in Guangdong Province. Participants were allocated into two groups based on funding contexts: a self-paid group (N = 150, 75 children and 75 older adults) in which participants paid full price for their vaccination; and a subsidized group (N = 300, 150 children and 150 older adults) in which varying levels of financial support was provided. Univariate and multivariable logistic regressions were conducted stratified by funding contexts. Results: Overall, 75.0% (225/300) of participants in the subsidized group and 36.7% (55/150) in the self-paid group got vaccinated. Older adults had lower vaccination rates than children in both funding groups, while both age groups showed much higher uptake in the subsidized group than in the self-paid group (aOR = 5.96, 95% CI: 3.77–9.42, p = 0.001). In the self-paid group, having prior influenza vaccination history of children (aOR:2.61, 95%CI: 1.06–6.42) or older people (aOR:4.76, 95%CI: 1.08–20.90) was associated with increased influenza vaccine uptake compared to those who had no prior vaccination experiences in the family. While in the subsidized group, participants who got married or lived with partners (aOR = 0.32, 0.10–0.98) had lower vaccination uptake than single ones. Trust in providers’ advice (aOR = 4.95, 95%CI:1.99, 12.43), perceived effectiveness of the vaccine (aOR: 12.18, 95%CI: 5.21–28.50), and experienced influenza-like illnesses in the family in the past year (aOR = 46.52, 4.10, 533.78) were associated with higher vaccine uptake. Conclusions: Older people had suboptimal vaccine uptake compared to children in both contexts and need more attention to enhance influenza vaccination. Tailoring interventions to different vaccine funding contexts may help improve influenza vaccination: In self-paid context, motivating people to accept their first ever influenza vaccination may be a promising strategy. In subsidized context, improving public confidence in vaccine effectiveness and providers’ advice would be useful.Is there a role for RDTs as we live with COVID-19? An assessment of different strategies
AbstractBonnet, G., Vassall, A., & Jit, M. (n.d.).Publication year
2023Journal title
BMJ Global HealthVolume
8Issue
1AbstractIntroduction By 2022, high levels of past COVID-19 infections, combined with substantial levels of vaccination and the development of Omicron, have shifted country strategies towards burden reduction policies. SARS-CoV-2 rapid antigen tests (rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs)) could contribute to these policies by helping rapidly detect, isolate and/or treat infections in different settings. However, the evidence to inform RDT policy choices in low and middle-income countries (LMICs) is limited. Method We provide an overview of the potential impact of several RDT use cases (surveillance; testing, tracing and isolation without and with surveillance; hospital-based screening to reduce nosocomial COVID-19; and testing to enable earlier/expanded treatment) for a range of country settings. We use conceptual models and literature review to identify which use cases are likely to bring benefits and how these may change with outbreak characteristics. Impacts are measured through multiple outcomes related to gaining time, reducing the burden on the health system and reducing deaths. Results In an optimal scenario in terms of resources and capacity and with baseline parameters, we find marginal time gains of 4 days or more through surveillance and testing tracing and isolation with surveillance, a reduction in peak intensive care unit (ICU) or ICU admissions by 5% or more (hospital-based screening; testing, tracing and isolation) and reductions in COVID-19 deaths by over 6% (hospital-based screening; test and treat). Time gains may be used to strengthen ICU capacity and/or boost vulnerable individuals, though only a small minority of at-risk individuals could be reached in the time available. The impact of RDTs declines with lower country resources and capacity, more transmissible or immune-escaping variants and reduced test sensitivity. Conclusion RDTs alone are unlikely to dramatically reduce the burden of COVID-19 in LMICs, though they may have an important role alongside other interventions such as vaccination, therapeutic drugs, improved healthcare capacity and non-pharmaceutical measures.Maternal immunisation against Group B Streptococcus: A global analysis of health impact and cost-effectiveness
AbstractProcter, S. R., Gonçalves, B. P., Paul, P., Chandna, J., Seedat, F., Koukounari, A., Hutubessy, R., Trotter, C., Lawn, J. E., & Jit, M. (n.d.).Publication year
2023Journal title
PLoS MedicineVolume
20Issue
3AbstractBackground AU Group: Pleaseconfirmthatallheadinglevelsarerepresentedcorrectly B Streptococcus (GBS) can cause invasive disease (iGBS) : in young infants, typically presenting as sepsis or meningitis, and is also associated with stillbirth and preterm birth. GBS vaccines are under development, but their potential health impact and cost-effectiveness have not been assessed globally. Methods and findings We assessed the health impact and value (using net monetary benefit (NMB), which measures both health and economic effects of vaccination into monetary units) of GBS maternal vaccination in an annual cohort of 140 million pregnant women across 183 countries in 2020. Our analysis uses a decision tree model, incorporating risks of GBS-related health outcomes from an existing Bayesian disease burden model. We extrapolated country-specific GBS-related healthcare costs using data from a previous systematic review and calculated quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) lost due to infant mortality and long-term disability. We assumed 80% vaccine efficacy against iGBS and stillbirth, following the WHO Preferred Product Characteristics, and coverage based on the proportion of pregnant women receiving at least 4 antenatal visits. One dose was assumed to cost $50 in high-income countries, $15 in upper-middle income countries, and $3.50 in low−/lower-middle-income countries. We estimated NMB using alternative normative assumptions that may be adopted by policymakers. Vaccinating pregnant women could avert 127,000 (95% uncertainty range 63,300 to 248,000) early-onset and 87,300 (38,100 to 209,000) late-onset infant iGBS cases, 31,100 deaths (14,400 to 66,400), 17,900 (6,380 to 49,900) cases of moderate and severe neurodevelopmental impairment, and 23,000 (10,000 to 56,400) stillbirths. A vaccine effective against GBS-associated prematurity might also avert 185,000 (13,500 to 407,000) preterm births. Globally, a 1-dose vaccine programme could cost $1.7 billion but save $385 million in healthcare costs. Estimated global NMB ranged from $1.1 billion ($−0.2 to 3.8 billion) under the least favourable normative assumptions to $17 billion ($9.1 to 31 billion) under the most favourable normative assumptions. The main limitation of our analysis was the scarcity of data to inform some of the model parameters such as those governing health-related quality of life and long-term costs from disability, and how these parameters may vary across country contexts. edforthoseusedthroughoutthetext:Pleaseverifythatallentriesarecorrect: Conclusions In this study, we found that maternal GBS vaccination could have a large impact on infant morbidity and mortality. Globally, a GBS maternal vaccine at reasonable prices is likely to be a cost-effective intervention.Maximising the cost-effectiveness of human papillomavirus testing for cervical screening in the context of routine HPV vaccination in Hong Kong: abridged secondary publication
Leung, S. M., Wu, J., Chan, K. K., & Jit, M. (n.d.).Publication year
2023Journal title
Journal of the Hong Kong Medical AssociationVolume
29Issue
4Page(s)
11-15Maximizing the cost-effectiveness of cervical screening in the context of routine HPV vaccination by optimizing screening strategies with respect to vaccine uptake: a modeling analysis
AbstractChoi, H. C., Leung, K., Chan, K. K., Bai, Y., Jit, M., & Wu, J. T. (n.d.).Publication year
2023Journal title
BMC MedicineVolume
21Issue
1AbstractBackground: Regarding primary and secondary cervical cancer prevention, the World Health Organization proposed the cervical cancer elimination strategy that requires countries to achieve 90% uptake of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccines and 70% screening uptake. The optimal cervical screening strategy is likely different for unvaccinated and vaccinated cohorts upon national HPV immunization. However, health authorities typically only provide a one-size-fits-all recommendation for the general population. We aimed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness for determining the optimal screening strategies for vaccinated and unvaccinated cohorts. Methods: We considered the women population in Hong Kong which has a unique HPV infection and cervical cancer epidemiology compared to other regions in China and Asia. We used mathematical models which comprise a deterministic age-structured compartmental dynamic component and a stochastic individual-based cohort component to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of screening strategies for cervical screening. Following the recommendations in local guidelines in Hong Kong, we considered strategies that involved cytology, HPV testing, or co-testing as primary cervical screening. We also explored the impacts of adopting alternative de-intensified strategies for vaccinated cohorts. The 3-year cytology screening was used as the base comparator while no screening was also considered for vaccinated cohorts. Women’s lifetime life years, quality-adjusted life years, and costs of screening and treatment were estimated from the societal perspective based on the year 2022 and were discounted by 3% annually. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were compared to a willingness to pay (WTP) threshold of one gross domestic product per capita (US $47,792). Probabilistic and one-way sensitivity analyses were conducted. Results: Among unvaccinated cohorts, the strategy that adds reflex HPV to triage mild cytology abnormality generated more life years saved than cytology-only screening and could be a cost-effective alternative. Among vaccinated cohorts, when vaccine uptake was 85% (based on the uptake in 2022), all guideline-based strategies (including the cytology-only screening) had ICERs above the WTP threshold when compared with no screening if the vaccine-induced protection duration was 20 years or longer. Under the same conditions, HPV testing with genotyping triage had ICERs (compared with no screening) below the WTP threshold if the routine screening interval was lengthened to 10 and 15 years or screening was initiated at ages 30 and 35 years. Conclusions: HPV testing is a cost-effective alternative to cytology for vaccinated cohorts, and the associated optimal screening frequency depends on vaccine uptake. Health authorities should optimize screening recommendations by accounting for population vaccine uptake.