Mark Jit
Mark Jit
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Chair and Professor of the Department of Global and Environmental Health
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Professional overview
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Mark Jit is the inaugural chair and a professor in the Department of Global and Environmental Health. He was formerly head of the Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology & Dynamics and co-director of the Global Health Economics Centre (GHECO) at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM). He holds honorary appointments at LSHTM as well as the University of Hong Kong (HKU) and the National University of Singapore (NUS).
Dr. Jit’s research focuses on epidemiological and economic modeling of vaccines to support evidence-based public health decision making. He has published papers covering a range of vaccine-preventable or potentially vaccine-preventable diseases including COVID-19, measles, HPV, pneumococcus, rotavirus, influenza, Group B Streptococcus, dengue, EV71 and RSV as well as methodological papers advancing the ways vaccines are evaluated. This work has influenced many of the major changes to immunization policy in countries around the world. Dr. Jit has served on a number of expert advisory committees in the UK as well as for international organizations such as the World Health Organization. He also organises or contributes to academic and professional courses on vaccine modeling, economics and decision science around the world.
Dr. Jit received his BSc and PhD in Mathematics from University College London, specializing in mathematical biology, and a Master of Public Health degree from King’s College London.
Visit Dr. Jit's Google Scholar's page to learn more about his research portfolio.
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Education
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BSc, Mathematics, University College LondonPhD, Mathematics, University College LondonMPH, Public Health, King's College London
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Honors and awards
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Clarivate Highly Cited Researcher (20222023)Fellow of the Academy of Medical Sciences (2023)Training Fund Award, Health Protection Agency (2007)Andrew Rosen Prize, University College London (1999)Institute of Mathematics and its Applications Award (1998)Departmental Research Studentship, University College London (1998)Student Union Commendation, University College London (1997)Fillon Prize, University College London (1996)Pathfinder Award, University College London (1995)
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Publications
Publications
The potential for vaccination-induced herd immunity against the SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 variant
AbstractCMMID COVID-19 Working Group, A., Hodgson, D., Flasche, S., Jit, M., Kucharski, A. J., Abbott, S., Edmunds, W. J., Davies, N. G., Eggo, R. M., Medley, G., Lei, J., Liu, Y., Tully, D. C., McCarthy, C. V., Mee, P., Endo, A., Hellewell, J., Funk, S., Jombart, T., … Abbas, K. (n.d.).Publication year
2021Journal title
EurosurveillanceVolume
26Issue
20AbstractWe assess the feasibility of reaching the herd immunity threshold against SARS-CoV-2 through vaccination, considering vaccine effectiveness (VE), transmissibility of the virus and the level of pre-existing immunity in populations, as well as their age structure. If highly transmissible variants of concern become dominant in areas with low levels of naturally-acquired immunity and/or in populations with large proportions of < 15 year-olds, control of infection without non-pharmaceutical interventions may only be possible with a VE ≥ 80%, and coverage extended to children. Initial reports of vaccine effectiveness against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARSCoV-2), the virus responsible for coronavirus disease (COVID-19), have suggested a substantial reduction of the risk of infection [1]. Nevertheless, with the emergence of more transmissible variants such as B.1.1.7 [2], how large-scale immunisation programmes against SARS-CoV-2 will perform is currently unclear. This study assesses the potential of COVID-19 vaccination to generate herd immunity and takes into account vaccine effectiveness, naturally-acquired immunity and achievable vaccination coverage (depending on the population age structure), as well as two transmissibility scenarios ((i) with pre-B.1.1.7, and (ii) with exclusively B.1.1.7 variants).The potential health and economic value of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination alongside physical distancing in the UK : a transmission model-based future scenario analysis and economic evaluation
AbstractCentre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases COVID-19 working group, A., Sandmann, F. G., Davies, N. G., Vassall, A., Edmunds, W. J., Jit, M., Sun, F. Y., Villabona-Arenas, C. J., Nightingale, E. S., Showering, A., Knight, G. M., Sherratt, K., Liu, Y., Abbas, K., Funk, S., Endo, A., Hellewell, J., Rosello, A., Lowe, R., … Clifford, S. (n.d.).Publication year
2021Journal title
The Lancet Infectious DiseasesVolume
21Issue
7Page(s)
962-974AbstractBackground: In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, the UK first adopted physical distancing measures in March, 2020. Vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 became available in December, 2020. We explored the health and economic value of introducing SARS-CoV-2 immunisation alongside physical distancing in the UK to gain insights about possible future scenarios in a post-vaccination era. Methods: We used an age-structured dynamic transmission and economic model to explore different scenarios of UK mass immunisation programmes over 10 years. We compared vaccinating 75% of individuals aged 15 years or older (and annually revaccinating 50% of individuals aged 15–64 years and 75% of individuals aged 65 years or older) to no vaccination. We assumed either 50% vaccine efficacy against disease and 45-week protection (worst-case scenario) or 95% vaccine efficacy against infection and 3-year protection (best-case scenario). Natural immunity was assumed to wane within 45 weeks. We also explored the additional impact of physical distancing on vaccination by assuming either an initial lockdown followed by voluntary physical distancing, or an initial lockdown followed by increased physical distancing mandated above a certain threshold of incident daily infections. We considered benefits in terms of quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and costs, both to the health-care payer and the national economy. We discounted future costs and QALYs at 3·5% annually and assumed a monetary value per QALY of £20 000 and a conservative long-run cost per vaccine dose of £15. We explored and varied these parameters in sensitivity analyses. We expressed the health and economic benefits of each scenario with the net monetary value: QALYs × (monetary value per QALY) – costs. Findings: Without the initial lockdown, vaccination, and increased physical distancing, we estimated 148·0 million (95% uncertainty interval 48·5–198·8) COVID-19 cases and 3·1 million (0·84–4·5) deaths would occur in the UK over 10 years. In the best-case scenario, vaccination minimises community transmission without future periods of increased physical distancing, whereas SARS-CoV-2 becomes endemic with biannual epidemics in the worst-case scenario. Ongoing transmission is also expected in intermediate scenarios with vaccine efficacy similar to published clinical trial data. From a health-care perspective, introducing vaccination leads to incremental net monetary values ranging from £12·0 billion to £334·7 billion in the best-case scenario and from –£1·1 billion to £56·9 billion in the worst-case scenario. Incremental net monetary values of increased physical distancing might be negative from a societal perspective if national economy losses are persistent and large. Interpretation: Our model findings highlight the substantial health and economic value of introducing SARS-CoV-2 vaccination. Smaller outbreaks could continue even with vaccines, but population-wide implementation of increased physical distancing might no longer be justifiable. Our study provides early insights about possible future post-vaccination scenarios from an economic and epidemiological perspective. Funding: National Institute for Health Research, European Commission, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.Who should be prioritized for COVID-19 vaccination in China? A descriptive study
AbstractYang, J., Zheng, W., Shi, H., Yan, X., Dong, K., You, Q., Zhong, G., Gong, H., Chen, Z., Jit, M., Viboud, C., Ajelli, M., & Yu, H. (n.d.).Publication year
2021Journal title
BMC MedicineVolume
19Issue
1AbstractBackground: All countries are facing decisions about which population groups to prioritize for access to COVID-19 vaccination after the first vaccine products have been licensed, at which time supply shortages are inevitable. Our objective is to define the key target populations, their size, and priority for a COVID-19 vaccination program in the context of China. Methods: On the basis of utilitarian and egalitarian principles, we define and estimate the size of tiered target population groups for a phased introduction of COVID-19 vaccination, considering evolving goals as vaccine supplies increase, detailed information on the risk of illness and transmission, and past experience with vaccination during the 2009 influenza pandemic. Using publicly available data, we estimated the size of target population groups, and the number of days needed to vaccinate 70% of the target population. Sensitivity analyses considered higher vaccine coverages and scaled up vaccine delivery relative to the 2009 pandemic. Results: Essential workers, including staff in the healthcare, law enforcement, security, nursing homes, social welfare institutes, community services, energy, food and transportation sectors, and overseas workers/students (49.7 million) could be prioritized for vaccination to maintain essential services in the early phase of a vaccination program. Subsequently, older adults, individuals with underlying health conditions and pregnant women (563.6 million) could be targeted for vaccination to reduce the number of individuals with severe COVID-19 outcomes, including hospitalizations, critical care admissions, and deaths. In later stages, the vaccination program could be further extended to target adults without underlying health conditions and children (784.8 million), in order to reduce symptomatic infections and/or to stop virus transmission. Given 10 million doses administered per day, and a two-dose vaccination schedule, it would take 1 week to vaccinate essential workers but likely up to 7 months to vaccinate 70% of the overall population. Conclusions: The proposed framework is general but could assist Chinese policy-makers in the design of a vaccination program. Additionally, this exercise could be generalized to inform other national and regional strategies for use of COVID-19 vaccines, especially in low- and middle-income countries.World Health Organization Expert Working Group : Recommendations for assessing morbidity associated with enteric pathogens
AbstractHasso-Agopsowicz, M., Lopman, B. A., Lanata, C. F., Rogawski McQuade, E. T., Kang, G., Prudden, H. J., Khalil, I., Platts-Mills, J. A., Kotloff, K., Jit, M., Riddle, M. S., Pavlinac, P. B., Luz, P. M., Pitzer, V. E., Breiman, R. F., & Giersing, B. K. (n.d.).Publication year
2021Journal title
VaccineVolume
39Issue
52Page(s)
7521-7525AbstractBackground: Diarrhoeal infections are one of the leading causes of child's mortality and morbidity. Vaccines against Shigella, enterotoxigenic E. coli (ETEC), norovirus and invasive non-typhoidal Salmonella are in clinical development, however, their full value in terms of short and long-term health and socio-economic burden needs to be evaluated and communicated, to rationalise investment in vaccine development, and deployment. While estimates of mortality of enteric infections exist, the long-term morbidity estimates are scarce and have not been systematically collected. Methods: The World Health Organization (WHO) has convened a Burden of Enteric Diseases Morbidity Working Group (BoED MWG) who identified key workstreams needed to characterise the morbidity burden of enteric infections. The group also identified four criteria for the prioritisation of pathogens of which impact on long-term morbidity needs to be assessed. Results: The BoED MWG suggested to identify and analyse the individual level data from historical datasets to estimate the impact of enteric infections and confounders on long-term morbidity, including growth faltering and cognitive impairment in children (workstream 1); to conduct a systematic review of evidence on the association of aetiology specific diarrhoea with short- and long- term impact on growth, including stunting, and possibly cognitive impairment in children, while accounting for potential confounders (workstream 2); and to conduct a systematic review of evidence on the association of aetiology specific diarrhoea with short- and long- term impact on health outcomes in adults. The experts prioritised four pathogens for this work: Campylobacter jejuni, ETEC (LT or ST), norovirus (G1 or G2), and Shigella (dysenteriae, flexneri, sonnei). Conclusions: The proposed work will contribute to improving the understanding of the impact of enteric pathogens on long-term morbidity. The timing of this work is critical as all four pathogens have vaccine candidates in the clinical pipeline and decisions about investments in development, manufacturing or vaccine procurement and use are expected to be made soon.A review of the costs of delivering maternal immunisation during pregnancy
AbstractProcter, S. R., Salman, O., Pecenka, C., Gonçalves, B. P., Paul, P., Hutubessy, R., Lambach, P., Lawn, J. E., & Jit, M. (n.d.).Publication year
2020Journal title
VaccineVolume
38Issue
40Page(s)
6199-6204AbstractBackground: Routine maternal immunisation against influenza and pertussis are recommended by the WHO to protect mother and child, and new vaccines are under development. Introducing maternal vaccines into national programmes requires an understanding of vaccine delivery costs – particularly in low resource settings. Methods: We searched Medline, Embase, Econlit, and Global Health for studies reporting costs of delivering vaccination during pregnancy but excluded studies that did not separate the vaccine purchase price. Extracted costs were inflated and converted to 2018 US dollars. Results: Sixteen studies were included, of which two used primary data to estimate vaccine delivery costs. Costs per dose ranged from $0.55 to $0.64 in low-income countries, from $1.25 to $6.55 for middle-income countries, and from $5.76 to $39.87 in high-income countries. Conclusions: More research is needed on the costs of delivering maternal immunisation during pregnancy, and of integrating vaccine delivery into existing programmes of antenatal care especially in low and middle-income countries.Access and Unmet Needs of Orphan Drugs in 194 Countries and 6 Areas : A Global Policy Review With Content Analysis
AbstractChan, A. Y., Chan, V. K., Olsson, S., Fan, M., Jit, M., Gong, M., Zhang, S., Ge, M., Pathadka, S., Chung, C. C., Chung, B. H., Chui, C. S., Chan, E. W., Wong, G. H., Lum, T. Y., Wong, I. C., Ip, P., & Li, X. (n.d.).Publication year
2020Journal title
Value in HealthVolume
23Issue
12Page(s)
1580-1591AbstractObjectives: Three hundred million people living with rare diseases worldwide are disproportionately deprived of in-time diagnosis and treatment compared with other patients. This review provides an overview of global policies that optimize development, licensing, pricing, and reimbursement of orphan drugs. Methods: Pharmaceutical legislation and policies related to access and regulation of orphan drugs were examined from 194 World Health Organization member countries and 6 areas. Orphan drug policies (ODPs) were identified through internet search, emails to national pharmacovigilance centers, and systematic academic literature search. Texts from selected publications were extracted for content analysis. Results: One hundred seventy-two drug regulation documents and 77 academic publications from 162 countries/areas were included. Ninety-two of 200 countries/areas (46.0%) had documentation on ODPs. Thirty-four subthemes from content analysis were categorized into 6 policy themes, namely, orphan drug designation, marketing authorization, safety and efficacy requirements, price regulation, incentives that encourage market availability, and incentives that encourage research and development. Countries/areas with ODPs were statistically wealthier (gross national income per capita = $10 875 vs $3950, PAge-dependent effects in the transmission and control of COVID-19 epidemics
AbstractCMMID COVID-19 Working Group, A., Davies, N. G., Klepac, P., Liu, Y., Prem, K., Jit, M., Pearson, C. A., Quilty, B. J., Kucharski, A. J., Gibbs, H., Clifford, S., Gimma, A., van Zandvoort, K., Munday, J. D., Diamond, C., Edmunds, W. J., Houben, R. M., Hellewell, J., Russell, T. W., … Eggo, R. M. (n.d.).Publication year
2020Journal title
Nature MedicineVolume
26Issue
8Page(s)
1205-1211AbstractThe COVID-19 pandemic has shown a markedly low proportion of cases among children1–4. Age disparities in observed cases could be explained by children having lower susceptibility to infection, lower propensity to show clinical symptoms or both. We evaluate these possibilities by fitting an age-structured mathematical model to epidemic data from China, Italy, Japan, Singapore, Canada and South Korea. We estimate that susceptibility to infection in individuals under 20 years of age is approximately half that of adults aged over 20 years, and that clinical symptoms manifest in 21% (95% credible interval: 12–31%) of infections in 10- to 19-year-olds, rising to 69% (57–82%) of infections in people aged over 70 years. Accordingly, we find that interventions aimed at children might have a relatively small impact on reducing SARS-CoV-2 transmission, particularly if the transmissibility of subclinical infections is low. Our age-specific clinical fraction and susceptibility estimates have implications for the expected global burden of COVID-19, as a result of demographic differences across settings. In countries with younger population structures—such as many low-income countries—the expected per capita incidence of clinical cases would be lower than in countries with older population structures, although it is likely that comorbidities in low-income countries will also influence disease severity. Without effective control measures, regions with relatively older populations could see disproportionally more cases of COVID-19, particularly in the later stages of an unmitigated epidemic.Assessing the value of human papillomavirus vaccination in Gavi-eligible low-income and middle-income countries
AbstractOchalek, J., Abbas, K., Claxton, K., Jit, M., & Lomas, J. (n.d.).Publication year
2020Journal title
BMJ Global HealthVolume
5Issue
10AbstractIntroduction Estimating the value of providing effective healthcare interventions in a country requires an assessment of whether the improvement in health outcomes they offer exceeds the improvement in health that would have been possible if the resources required had, instead, been made available for other healthcare activities in that country. This potential alternative use of the same resources represents the health opportunity cost of providing the intervention. Without such assessments, there is a danger that blanket recommendations made by international organisations will lead to the adoption of healthcare interventions that are not cost effective in some countries, even given existing donor mechanisms intended to support their affordability. Methods We assessed the net health impact to 46 Gavi-eligible countries of achieving one of the WHO's proposed 90-70-90 targets for cervical cancer elimination, which includes 90% coverage of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination among girls by 15 years of age, using published estimates of the expected additional benefits and costs in each country and estimates of the marginal productivity of each healthcare system. We calculated the maximum price each country could afford to pay for HPV vaccination to be cost effective by assessing the net health impact that would be expected to be generated at different potential prices. Results At Gavi negotiated prices, HPV vaccination offers net health benefits across most Gavi-eligible countries included in this study. However, if Gavi-eligible countries faced the average price faced by non-Gavi eligible countries, providing HPV vaccination would result in reduced overall population health in most countries. Conclusion Estimates of the net health impact of providing a healthcare intervention can be used to assess the benefit (or lack of) to countries of adhering to global guidance, inform negotiations with donors, as well as pricing negotiations and the value of developing new healthcare interventions.Burden and Cost of Hospitalization for Respiratory Syncytial Virus in Young Children, Singapore
AbstractTam, C. C., Tam, C. C., Tam, C. C., Tam, C. C., Yeo, K. T., Yeo, K. T., Tee, N., Tee, N., Lin, R., Mak, T. M., Thoon, K. C., Jit, M., Yung, C. F., Yung, C. F., & Yung, C. F. (n.d.).Publication year
2020Journal title
Emerging Infectious DiseasesVolume
26Issue
7Page(s)
1489-1496AbstractRespiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is the most common cause of pediatric acute lower respiratory tract infection worldwide. Detailed data on the health and economic burden of RSV disease are lacking from tropical settings with year-round RSV transmission. We developed a statistical and economic model to estimate the annual incidence and healthcare cost of medically attended RSV disease among young children in Singapore, using Monte Carlo simulation to account for uncertainty in model param-eters. RSV accounted for 708 hospitalizations in childrenCaregiver and service provider vaccine confidence following the Changchun Changsheng vaccine incident in China : A cross-sectional mixed methods study
AbstractTu, S., Sun, F. Y., Chantler, T., Zhang, X., Jit, M., Han, K., Rodewald, L., Du, F., Yu, H., Hou, Z., & Larson, H. (n.d.).Publication year
2020Journal title
VaccineVolume
38Issue
44Page(s)
6882-6888AbstractIntroduction: The Changchun Changsheng Vaccine Incident (CCVI) occurred mid-2018 and involved irregularities in the manufacture and quality control of diphtheria-tetanus-acellular-pertussis and rabies vaccines. This study investigates vaccine confidence amongst Chinese caregivers and vaccination-service providers (VSPs) six months after the CCVI. Methods: Quantitative surveys were conducted in January 2019 with 2124 caregivers of children and 555 VSPs in three areas in China. The proportions of respondents who agreed to the four statements from the Vaccine Confidence Index™ were used to measure vaccine confidence. Descriptive and univariate analyses were performed to study the level of vaccine confidence. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 48 caregivers, 43 VSPs and 9 immunization program managers. Interviews were analyzed thematically using a combination of deductive and inductive coding. Media surveillance was conducted to monitor public responses to the CCVI. Results: Media surveillance indicated that public attention to vaccine-related issues increased sharply immediately post-CCVI but declined rapidly thereafter. Six months post-CCVI, 96.0% of caregivers and the same proportion of VSPs reported that vaccination was important and compatible with their religious beliefs. 82.7% and 88.2% of caregivers agreed that vaccines were safe and effective. 92.8% and 94.6% of VSPs agreed that vaccines were safe and effective. Both caregivers and VSPs reported an immediate decline in vaccine confidence post-CCVI. In most cases this trust was regained over time following government and public health responses, however some people remained hesitant about vaccinating their children. Many VSPs were overwhelmed by consultations, workload and psychological pressure after the CCVI. Conclusion: After an initial decline, vaccine confidence recovered to pre-incident levels six months after the CCVI. However, some caregivers moved from the higher to the lower end of the vaccine confidence spectrum, pointing to the need to promote the acceptance of vaccination especially given the need for new vaccines to control the coronavirus epidemic.Cervical screening : ESGO-EFC position paper of the European Society of Gynaecologic Oncology (ESGO) and the European Federation of Colposcopy (EFC)
AbstractKyrgiou, M., Arbyn, M., Bergeron, C., Bosch, F. X., Dillner, J., Jit, M., Kim, J., Poljak, M., Nieminen, P., Sasieni, P., Kesic, V., Cuzick, J., & Gultekin, M. (n.d.).Publication year
2020Journal title
British Journal of CancerVolume
123Issue
4Page(s)
510-517AbstractThis paper summarises the position of ESGO and EFC on cervical screening based on existing guidelines and opinions of a team of lead experts. HPV test is replacing cytology as this offers greater protection against cervical cancer and allows longer screening intervals. Only a dozen of HPV tests are considered as clinically validated for screening. The lower specificity of HPV test dictates the use of triage tests that can select women for colposcopy. Reflex cytology is currently the only well validated triage test; HPV genotyping and p16 immunostaining may be used in the future, although methylation assays and viral load also look promising. A summary of quality assurance benchmarks is provided, and the importance to audit the screening histories of women who developed cancer is noted as a key objective. HPV-based screening is more cost-effective than cytology or cotesting. HPV-based screening should continue in the post-vaccination era. Only a fraction of the female population is vaccinated, and this varies across countries. A major challenge will be to personalise screening frequency according to vaccination status. Still the most important factor for successful prevention by screening is high population coverage and organised screening. Screening with self-sampling to reach under-screened women is promising.Changing travel patterns in China during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic
AbstractLSHTM CMMID COVID-19 Working Group, A., Gibbs, H., Liu, Y., Pearson, C. A., Jarvis, C. I., Grundy, C., Quilty, B. J., Diamond, C., Simons, D., Gimma, A., Leclerc, Q. J., Auzenbergs, M., Lowe, R., O’Reilly, K., Quaife, M., Hellewell, J., Knight, G. M., Jombart, T., Klepac, P., … Eggo, R. M. (n.d.).Publication year
2020Journal title
Nature communicationsVolume
11Issue
1AbstractUnderstanding changes in human mobility in the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic is crucial for assessing the impacts of travel restrictions designed to reduce disease spread. Here, relying on data from mainland China, we investigate the spatio-temporal characteristics of human mobility between 1st January and 1st March 2020, and discuss their public health implications. An outbound travel surge from Wuhan before travel restrictions were implemented was also observed across China due to the Lunar New Year, indicating that holiday travel may have played a larger role in mobility changes compared to impending travel restrictions. Holiday travel also shifted healthcare pressure related to COVID-19 towards locations with lower healthcare capacity. Network analyses showed no sign of major changes in the transportation network after Lunar New Year. Changes observed were temporary and did not lead to structural reorganisation of the transportation network during the study period.Cost-effectiveness of bivalent versus monovalent vaccines against hand, foot and mouth disease
AbstractLiu, D., Leung, K., Jit, M., Yu, H., Yang, J., Liao, Q., Liu, F., Zheng, Y., Wu, J. T., & Jit, M. (n.d.).Publication year
2020Journal title
Clinical Microbiology and InfectionVolume
26Issue
3Page(s)
373-380AbstractObjectives: Enterovirus 71 (EV71) and coxsackievirus A16 (CA16) were responsible for 43.3% (235 123/543 243) and 24.8% (134 607/543 243) of all laboratory-confirmed hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) cases during 2010–2015 in China. Three monovalent EV71 vaccines have been licensed in China while bivalent EV71/CA16 vaccines are under development. A comparative cost-effectiveness analysis of bivalent EV71/CA16 versus monovalent EV71 vaccination would be useful for informing the additional value of bivalent HFMD vaccines in China. Methods: We used a static model parameterized with the national HFMD surveillance data during 2010–2013, virological HFMD surveillance records from all 31 provinces in mainland China during 2010–2013 and caregiver survey data of costs and health quality of life during 2012–2013. We estimated the threshold vaccine cost (TVC), defined as the maximum additional cost that could be paid for a cost-effective bivalent EV71/CA16 vaccine over a monovalent EV71 vaccine, as the outcome. The base case analysis was performed from a societal perspective. Several sensitivity analyses were conducted by varying assumptions governing HFMD risk, costs, discounting and vaccine efficacy. Results: In the base case, choosing the bivalent EV71/CA16 over monovalent EV71 vaccination would be cost-effective only if the additional cost of the bivalent EV71/CA16 compared with the monovalent EV71 vaccine is less than €4.7 (95% CI 4.2–5.2). Compared with the TVC in the base case, TVC increased by up to €8.9 if all the test-negative cases were CA16-HFMD; decreased by €1.1 with an annual discount rate of 6% and exclusion of the productivity loss; and increased by €0.14 and €0.3 with every 1% increase in bivalent vaccine efficacy against CA16-HFMD and differential vaccine efficacy against EV71-HFMD, respectively. Conclusions: Bivalent EV71/CA16 vaccines can be cost-effective compared with monovalent EV71 vaccines, if suitably priced. Our study provides further evidence for determining the optimal use of HFMD vaccines in routine paediatric vaccination programme in China.Cost-effectiveness of introducing national seasonal influenza vaccination for adults aged 60 years and above in mainland China : A modelling analysis
AbstractYang, J., Atkins, K. E., Feng, L., Baguelin, M., Wu, P., Yan, H., Lau, E. H., Wu, J. T., Liu, Y., Cowling, B. J., Jit, M., & Yu, H. (n.d.).Publication year
2020Journal title
BMC MedicineVolume
18Issue
1AbstractBackground: China has an aging population with an increasing number of adults aged ≥ 60 years. Influenza causes a heavy disease burden in older adults, but can be alleviated by vaccination. We assessed the cost-effectiveness of a potential government-funded seasonal influenza vaccination program in older adults in China. Methods: We characterized the health and economic impact of a fully funded influenza vaccination program for older adults using China-specific influenza disease burden, and related cost data, etc. Using a decision tree model, we calculated the incremental costs per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained of vaccination from the societal perspective, at a willingness-to-pay threshold equivalent to GDP per capita (US$8840). Moreover, we estimated the threshold vaccination costs, under which the fully funded vaccination program is cost-effective using GDP per capita as the willingness-to-pay threshold. Results: Compared to current self-paid vaccination, a fully funded vaccination program is expected to prevent 19,812 (95% uncertainty interval, 7150-35,783) influenza-like-illness outpatient consultations per year, 9418 (3386-17,068) severe acute respiratory infection hospitalizations per year, and 8800 (5300-11,667) respiratory excess deaths due to influenza per year, and gain 70,212 (42,106-93,635) QALYs per year. Nationally, the incremental costs per QALY gained of the vaccination program is US$4832 (3460-8307), with a 98% probability of being cost-effective. The threshold vaccination cost is US$10.19 (6.08-13.65). However, variations exist between geographical regions, with Northeast and Central China having lower probabilities of cost-effectiveness. Conclusions: Our results support the implementation of a government fully funded older adult vaccination program in China. The regional analysis provides results across settings that may be relevant to other countries with similar disease burden and economic status, especially for low- and middle-income countries where such analysis is limited.Early dynamics of transmission and control of COVID-19 : a mathematical modelling study
AbstractCentre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases COVID-19 Working Group, A., Kucharski, A. J., Russell, T. W., Diamond, C., Liu, Y., Edmunds, J., Funk, S., Eggo, R. M., Sun, F., Jit, M., Munday, J. D., Davies, N., Gimma, A., van Zandvoort, K., Gibbs, H., Hellewell, J., Jarvis, C. I., Clifford, S., Quilty, B. J., … Flasche, S. (n.d.).Publication year
2020Journal title
The Lancet Infectious DiseasesVolume
20Issue
5Page(s)
553-558AbstractBackground: An outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has led to 95 333 confirmed cases as of March 5, 2020. Understanding the early transmission dynamics of the infection and evaluating the effectiveness of control measures is crucial for assessing the potential for sustained transmission to occur in new areas. Combining a mathematical model of severe SARS-CoV-2 transmission with four datasets from within and outside Wuhan, we estimated how transmission in Wuhan varied between December, 2019, and February, 2020. We used these estimates to assess the potential for sustained human-to-human transmission to occur in locations outside Wuhan if cases were introduced. Methods: We combined a stochastic transmission model with data on cases of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Wuhan and international cases that originated in Wuhan to estimate how transmission had varied over time during January, 2020, and February, 2020. Based on these estimates, we then calculated the probability that newly introduced cases might generate outbreaks in other areas. To estimate the early dynamics of transmission in Wuhan, we fitted a stochastic transmission dynamic model to multiple publicly available datasets on cases in Wuhan and internationally exported cases from Wuhan. The four datasets we fitted to were: daily number of new internationally exported cases (or lack thereof), by date of onset, as of Jan 26, 2020; daily number of new cases in Wuhan with no market exposure, by date of onset, between Dec 1, 2019, and Jan 1, 2020; daily number of new cases in China, by date of onset, between Dec 29, 2019, and Jan 23, 2020; and proportion of infected passengers on evacuation flights between Jan 29, 2020, and Feb 4, 2020. We used an additional two datasets for comparison with model outputs: daily number of new exported cases from Wuhan (or lack thereof) in countries with high connectivity to Wuhan (ie, top 20 most at-risk countries), by date of confirmation, as of Feb 10, 2020; and data on new confirmed cases reported in Wuhan between Jan 16, 2020, and Feb 11, 2020. Findings: We estimated that the median daily reproduction number (Rt) in Wuhan declined from 2·35 (95% CI 1·15–4·77) 1 week before travel restrictions were introduced on Jan 23, 2020, to 1·05 (0·41–2·39) 1 week after. Based on our estimates of Rt, assuming SARS-like variation, we calculated that in locations with similar transmission potential to Wuhan in early January, once there are at least four independently introduced cases, there is a more than 50% chance the infection will establish within that population. Interpretation: Our results show that COVID-19 transmission probably declined in Wuhan during late January, 2020, coinciding with the introduction of travel control measures. As more cases arrive in international locations with similar transmission potential to Wuhan before these control measures, it is likely many chains of transmission will fail to establish initially, but might lead to new outbreaks eventually. Funding: Wellcome Trust, Health Data Research UK, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and National Institute for Health Research.Effect of pediatric influenza vaccination on antibiotic resistance, England and Wales
AbstractChae, C., Davies, N. G., Jit, M., & Atkins, K. E. (n.d.).Publication year
2020Journal title
Emerging Infectious DiseasesVolume
26Issue
1Page(s)
138-142AbstractVaccines against viral infections have been proposed to reduce prescribing of antibiotics and thereby help control resistant bacterial infections. However, by combining published data sources, we predict that pediatric live attenuated influenza vaccination in England and Wales will not substantially reduce antibiotic consumption or adverse health outcomes associated with antibiotic resistance.Effectiveness of isolation, testing, contact tracing, and physical distancing on reducing transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in different settings : a mathematical modelling study
AbstractCMMID COVID-19 Working Group, A., Kucharski, A. J., Klepac, P., Conlan, A. J., Kissler, S. M., Tang, M. L., Fry, H., Gog, J. R., Edmunds, W. J., Emery, J. C., Medley, G., Munday, J. D., Russell, T. W., Leclerc, Q. J., Diamond, C., Procter, S. R., Gimma, A., Sun, F. Y., Gibbs, H. P., … Davies, N. G. (n.d.).Publication year
2020Journal title
The Lancet Infectious DiseasesVolume
20Issue
10Page(s)
1151-1160AbstractBackground: The isolation of symptomatic cases and tracing of contacts has been used as an early COVID-19 containment measure in many countries, with additional physical distancing measures also introduced as outbreaks have grown. To maintain control of infection while also reducing disruption to populations, there is a need to understand what combination of measures—including novel digital tracing approaches and less intensive physical distancing—might be required to reduce transmission. We aimed to estimate the reduction in transmission under different control measures across settings and how many contacts would be quarantined per day in different strategies for a given level of symptomatic case incidence. Methods: For this mathematical modelling study, we used a model of individual-level transmission stratified by setting (household, work, school, or other) based on BBC Pandemic data from 40 162 UK participants. We simulated the effect of a range of different testing, isolation, tracing, and physical distancing scenarios. Under optimistic but plausible assumptions, we estimated reduction in the effective reproduction number and the number of contacts that would be newly quarantined each day under different strategies. Results: We estimated that combined isolation and tracing strategies would reduce transmission more than mass testing or self-isolation alone: mean transmission reduction of 2% for mass random testing of 5% of the population each week, 29% for self-isolation alone of symptomatic cases within the household, 35% for self-isolation alone outside the household, 37% for self-isolation plus household quarantine, 64% for self-isolation and household quarantine with the addition of manual contact tracing of all contacts, 57% with the addition of manual tracing of acquaintances only, and 47% with the addition of app-based tracing only. If limits were placed on gatherings outside of home, school, or work, then manual contact tracing of acquaintances alone could have an effect on transmission reduction similar to that of detailed contact tracing. In a scenario where 1000 new symptomatic cases that met the definition to trigger contact tracing occurred per day, we estimated that, in most contact tracing strategies, 15 000–41 000 contacts would be newly quarantined each day. Interpretation: Consistent with previous modelling studies and country-specific COVID-19 responses to date, our analysis estimated that a high proportion of cases would need to self-isolate and a high proportion of their contacts to be successfully traced to ensure an effective reproduction number lower than 1 in the absence of other measures. If combined with moderate physical distancing measures, self-isolation and contact tracing would be more likely to achieve control of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 transmission. Funding: Wellcome Trust, UK Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council, European Commission, Royal Society, Medical Research Council.Effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 cases, deaths, and demand for hospital services in the UK : a modelling study
AbstractCentre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases COVID-19 working group, A., Davies, N. G., Kucharski, A. J., Eggo, R. M., Gimma, A., Edmunds, W. J., Jombart, T., O'Reilly, K., Endo, A., Hellewell, J., Nightingale, E. S., Quilty, B. J., Jarvis, C. I., Russell, T. W., Klepac, P., Bosse, N. I., Funk, S., Abbott, S., Medley, G. F., … Liu, Y. (n.d.).Publication year
2020Journal title
The Lancet Public HealthVolume
5Issue
7Page(s)
e375-e385AbstractBackground: Non-pharmaceutical interventions have been implemented to reduce transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in the UK. Projecting the size of an unmitigated epidemic and the potential effect of different control measures has been crucial to support evidence-based policy making during the early stages of the epidemic. This study assesses the potential impact of different control measures for mitigating the burden of COVID-19 in the UK. Methods: We used a stochastic age-structured transmission model to explore a range of intervention scenarios, tracking 66·4 million people aggregated to 186 county-level administrative units in England, Wales, Scotland, and Northern Ireland. The four base interventions modelled were school closures, physical distancing, shielding of people aged 70 years or older, and self-isolation of symptomatic cases. We also modelled the combination of these interventions, as well as a programme of intensive interventions with phased lockdown-type restrictions that substantially limited contacts outside of the home for repeated periods. We simulated different triggers for the introduction of interventions, and estimated the impact of varying adherence to interventions across counties. For each scenario, we projected estimated new cases over time, patients requiring inpatient and critical care (ie, admission to the intensive care units [ICU]) treatment, and deaths, and compared the effect of each intervention on the basic reproduction number, R0. Findings: We projected a median unmitigated burden of 23 million (95% prediction interval 13–30) clinical cases and 350 000 deaths (170 000–480 000) due to COVID-19 in the UK by December, 2021. We found that the four base interventions were each likely to decrease R0, but not sufficiently to prevent ICU demand from exceeding health service capacity. The combined intervention was more effective at reducing R0, but only lockdown periods were sufficient to bring R0 near or below 1; the most stringent lockdown scenario resulted in a projected 120 000 cases (46 000–700 000) and 50 000 deaths (9300–160 000). Intensive interventions with lockdown periods would need to be in place for a large proportion of the coming year to prevent health-care demand exceeding availability. Interpretation: The characteristics of SARS-CoV-2 mean that extreme measures are probably required to bring the epidemic under control and to prevent very large numbers of deaths and an excess of demand on hospital beds, especially those in ICUs. Funding: Medical Research Council.Effects of updated demography, disability weights, and cervical cancer burden on estimates of human papillomavirus vaccination impact at the global, regional, and national levels : a PRIME modelling study
AbstractAbbas, K. M., van Zandvoort, K., Brisson, M., & Jit, M. (n.d.).Publication year
2020Journal title
The Lancet Global HealthVolume
8Issue
4Page(s)
e536-e544AbstractBackground: The Papillomavirus Rapid Interface for Modelling and Economics (PRIME) has been used around the world to assess the health impact and cost-effectiveness of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination in girls. We updated PRIME with new data and methods for demography, disability weights, and cervical cancer burden, and generated revised estimates of the health impact of HPV vaccination at the global, regional, and national levels for 177 countries. Methods: PRIME was updated with population demography of the UN World Population Prospects (UNWPP) 2019 revision, disability weights of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 study, and cervical cancer burden from the Global Cancer Incidence, Mortality and Prevalence (GLOBOCAN) 2018 database. We estimated the lifetime health benefits for bivalent or quadrivalent and nonavalent vaccination of 9-year-old and 12-year-old girls at 90% coverage during 2020–29 in 177 countries. Health impact was presented in terms of cervical cancer cases, deaths, or disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) averted per 1000 vaccinated girls in comparison with the counterfactual scenario of no vaccination, and the number of girls needed to be vaccinated to prevent a single case, death, or DALY. Findings: In estimating the health impact of HPV vaccination of 9-year-old girls, the combined updates to demography, disability weights, cervical cancer burden estimates resulted in a 26% increase in the estimated number of cases averted, a 51% increase in deaths averted, and a 72% increase in DALYs averted per 1000 vaccinated girls for both the bivalent or quadrivalent and nonavalent vaccines, compared with previous estimates. With the updated model, the bivalent or quadrivalent HPV vaccine was estimated to avert 15 cases, 12 deaths, and 243 DALYs per 1000 vaccinated girls, and the nonavalent HPV vaccine was estimated to avert 19 cases, 14 deaths, and 306 DALYs per 1000 vaccinated girls. The health benefits of vaccination of 12-year-old girls were estimated to be similar but slightly decreased in comparison with vaccination of 9-year-old girls. Interpretation: HPV vaccination provides greater health benefits and is more cost-effective than was previously estimated. The demography update, which incorporates population aging, has the largest effect on the health impact estimates. The WHO African region is expected to gain the greatest health benefits and should be prioritised for HPV vaccination. Funding: Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance; Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.Ensuring access and affordability through COVID-19 vaccine research and development investments : A proposal for the options market for vaccines
AbstractForman, R., Anderson, M., Jit, M., & Mossialos, E. (n.d.).Publication year
2020Journal title
VaccineVolume
38Issue
39Page(s)
6075-6077Abstract~Estimating number of cases and spread of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) using critical care admissions, United Kingdom, February to March 2020
AbstractLSHTM Centre for Mathematical Modelling ofInfectious Diseases COVID-19 Working Group, A., Jit, M., Jombart, T., Nightingale, E. S., Endo, A., Abbott, S., & Edmunds, W. J. (n.d.).Publication year
2020Journal title
EurosurveillanceVolume
25Issue
18Page(s)
1-5AbstractAn exponential growth model was fitted to critical care admissions from two surveillance databases to determine likely coronavirus disease (COVID-19) case numbers, critical care admissions and epidemic growth in the United Kingdom before the national lockdown. We estimate, on 23 March, a median of 114,000 (95% credible interval (CrI): 78,000–173,000) new cases and 258 (95% CrI: 220–319) new critical care reports, with 527,000 (95% CrI: 362,000–797,000) cumulative cases since 16 February.Estimating the overdispersion in COVID-19 transmission using outbreak sizes outside China
AbstractCentre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases COVID-19 working group, A., Endo, A., Abbott, S., Kucharski, A. J., Funk, S., Eggo, R. M., Quilty, B. J., Bosse, N. I., van Zandvoort, K., Munday, J. D., Flasche, S., Rosello, A., Jit, M., John Edmunds, W., Gimma, A., Liu, Y., Prem, K., Gibbs, H., Diamond, C., … Pearson, C. A. (n.d.).Publication year
2020Journal title
Wellcome Open ResearchVolume
5AbstractBackground: A novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak has now spread to a number of countries worldwide. While sustained transmission chains of human-to-human transmission suggest high basic reproduction number R 0, variation in the number of secondary transmissions (often characterised by so-called superspreading events) may be large as some countries have observed fewer local transmissions than others. Methods: We quantified individual-level variation in COVID-19 transmission by applying a mathematical model to observed outbreak sizes in affected countries. We extracted the number of imported and local cases in the affected countries from the World Health Organization situation report and applied a branching process model where the number of secondary transmissions was assumed to follow a negative-binomial distribution. Results: Our model suggested a high degree of individual-level variation in the transmission of COVID-19. Within the current consensus range of R 0 (2-3), the overdispersion parameter k of a negative-binomial distribution was estimated to be around 0.1 (median estimate 0.1; 95% CrI: 0.05-0.2 for R0 = 2.5), suggesting that 80% of secondary transmissions may have been caused by a small fraction of infectious individuals (~10%). A joint estimation yielded likely ranges for R 0 and k (95% CrIs: R 0 1.4-12; k 0.04-0.2); however, the upper bound of R 0 was not well informed by the model and data, which did not notably differ from that of the prior distribution. Conclusions: Our finding of a highly-overdispersed offspring distribution highlights a potential benefit to focusing intervention efforts on superspreading. As most infected individuals do not contribute to the expansion of an epidemic, the effective reproduction number could be drastically reduced by preventing relatively rare superspreading events.Feasibility of controlling COVID-19 outbreaks by isolation of cases and contacts
AbstractCentre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases COVID-19 working group, A., Hellewell, J., Abbott, S., Gimma, A., Bosse, N. I., Jarvis, C. I., Russell, T. W., Munday, J. D., Kucharski, A. J., Edmunds, W. J., Sun, F., Flasche, S., Quilty, B. J., Davies, N., Liu, Y., Clifford, S., Klepac, P., Jit, M., Diamond, C., … Eggo, R. M. (n.d.).Publication year
2020Journal title
The Lancet Global HealthVolume
8Issue
4Page(s)
e488-e496AbstractBackground: Isolation of cases and contact tracing is used to control outbreaks of infectious diseases, and has been used for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Whether this strategy will achieve control depends on characteristics of both the pathogen and the response. Here we use a mathematical model to assess if isolation and contact tracing are able to control onwards transmission from imported cases of COVID-19. Methods: We developed a stochastic transmission model, parameterised to the COVID-19 outbreak. We used the model to quantify the potential effectiveness of contact tracing and isolation of cases at controlling a severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)-like pathogen. We considered scenarios that varied in the number of initial cases, the basic reproduction number (R0), the delay from symptom onset to isolation, the probability that contacts were traced, the proportion of transmission that occurred before symptom onset, and the proportion of subclinical infections. We assumed isolation prevented all further transmission in the model. Outbreaks were deemed controlled if transmission ended within 12 weeks or before 5000 cases in total. We measured the success of controlling outbreaks using isolation and contact tracing, and quantified the weekly maximum number of cases traced to measure feasibility of public health effort. Findings: Simulated outbreaks starting with five initial cases, an R0 of 1·5, and 0% transmission before symptom onset could be controlled even with low contact tracing probability; however, the probability of controlling an outbreak decreased with the number of initial cases, when R0 was 2·5 or 3·5 and with more transmission before symptom onset. Across different initial numbers of cases, the majority of scenarios with an R0 of 1·5 were controllable with less than 50% of contacts successfully traced. To control the majority of outbreaks, for R0 of 2·5 more than 70% of contacts had to be traced, and for an R0 of 3·5 more than 90% of contacts had to be traced. The delay between symptom onset and isolation had the largest role in determining whether an outbreak was controllable when R0 was 1·5. For R0 values of 2·5 or 3·5, if there were 40 initial cases, contact tracing and isolation were only potentially feasible when less than 1% of transmission occurred before symptom onset. Interpretation: In most scenarios, highly effective contact tracing and case isolation is enough to control a new outbreak of COVID-19 within 3 months. The probability of control decreases with long delays from symptom onset to isolation, fewer cases ascertained by contact tracing, and increasing transmission before symptoms. This model can be modified to reflect updated transmission characteristics and more specific definitions of outbreak control to assess the potential success of local response efforts. Funding: Wellcome Trust, Global Challenges Research Fund, and Health Data Research UK.Global, regional, and national estimates of the population at increased risk of severe COVID-19 due to underlying health conditions in 2020 : a modelling study
AbstractClark, A., Jit, M., Warren-Gash, C., Guthrie, B., Wang, H. H., Mercer, S. W., Sanderson, C., McKee, M., Troeger, C., Ong, K. L., Checchi, F., Perel, P., Joseph, S., Gibbs, H. P., Banerjee, A., Eggo, R. M., Nightingale, E. S., O'Reilly, K., Jombart, T., … Jarvis, C. I. (n.d.).Publication year
2020Journal title
The Lancet Global HealthVolume
8Issue
8Page(s)
e1003-e1017AbstractBackground: The risk of severe COVID-19 if an individual becomes infected is known to be higher in older individuals and those with underlying health conditions. Understanding the number of individuals at increased risk of severe COVID-19 and how this varies between countries should inform the design of possible strategies to shield or vaccinate those at highest risk. Methods: We estimated the number of individuals at increased risk of severe disease (defined as those with at least one condition listed as “at increased risk of severe COVID-19” in current guidelines) by age (5-year age groups), sex, and country for 188 countries using prevalence data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 and UN population estimates for 2020. The list of underlying conditions relevant to COVID-19 was determined by mapping the conditions listed in GBD 2017 to those listed in guidelines published by WHO and public health agencies in the UK and the USA. We analysed data from two large multimorbidity studies to determine appropriate adjustment factors for clustering and multimorbidity. To help interpretation of the degree of risk among those at increased risk, we also estimated the number of individuals at high risk (defined as those that would require hospital admission if infected) using age-specific infection–hospitalisation ratios for COVID-19 estimated for mainland China and making adjustments to reflect country-specific differences in the prevalence of underlying conditions and frailty. We assumed males were twice at likely as females to be at high risk. We also calculated the number of individuals without an underlying condition that could be considered at increased risk because of their age, using minimum ages from 50 to 70 years. We generated uncertainty intervals (UIs) for our estimates by running low and high scenarios using the lower and upper 95% confidence limits for country population size, disease prevalences, multimorbidity fractions, and infection–hospitalisation ratios, and plausible low and high estimates for the degree of clustering, informed by multimorbidity studies. Findings: We estimated that 1·7 billion (UI 1·0–2·4) people, comprising 22% (UI 15–28) of the global population, have at least one underlying condition that puts them at increased risk of severe COVID-19 if infected (ranging from 66% of those aged 70 years or older). We estimated that 349 million (186–787) people (4% [3–9] of the global population) are at high risk of severe COVID-19 and would require hospital admission if infected (ranging fromHealth and economic burden of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) disease and the cost-effectiveness of potential interventions against RSV among children under 5 years in 72 Gavi-eligible countries
AbstractLi, X., Willem, L., Antillon, M., Bilcke, J., Jit, M., & Beutels, P. (n.d.).Publication year
2020Journal title
BMC MedicineVolume
18Issue
1AbstractBackground: Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) frequently causes acute lower respiratory infection in children under 5, representing a high burden in Gavi-eligible countries (mostly low-income and lower-middle-income). Since multiple RSV interventions, including vaccines and monoclonal antibody (mAb) candidates, are under development, we aim to evaluate the key drivers of the cost-effectiveness of maternal vaccination and infant mAb for 72 Gavi countries. Methods: A static Multi-Country Model Application for RSV Cost-Effectiveness poLicy (MCMARCEL) was developed to follow RSV-related events monthly from birth until 5 years of age. MCMARCEL was parameterised using country- A nd age-specific demographic, epidemiological, and cost data. The interventions' level and duration of effectiveness were guided by the World Health Organization's preferred product characteristics and other literature. Maternal vaccination and mAb were assumed to require single-dose administration at prices assumed to align with other Gavi-subsidised technologies. The effectiveness and the prices of the interventions were simultaneously varied in extensive scenario analyses. Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) were the primary health outcomes for cost-effectiveness, integrated with probabilistic sensitivity analyses and Expected Value of Partially Perfect Information analysis. Results: The RSV-associated disease burden among children in these 72 countries is estimated at an average of 20.8 million cases, 1.8 million hospital admissions, 40 thousand deaths, 1.2 million discounted DALYs, and US$611 million discounted direct costs. Strategy 'mAb' is more effective due to its assumed longer duration of protection versus maternal vaccination, but it was also assumed to be more expensive. Given all parameterised uncertainty, the optimal strategy of choice tends to change for increasing willingness to pay (WTP) values per DALY averted from the current situation to maternal vaccination (at WTP > US$1000) to mAB (at WTP > US$3500). The age-specific proportions of cases that are hospitalised and/or die cause most of the uncertainty in the choice of optimal strategy. Results are broadly similar across countries. Conclusions: Both the maternal and mAb strategies need to be competitively priced to be judged as relatively cost-effective. Information on the level and duration of protection is crucial, but also more and better disease burden evidence-especially on RSV-attributable hospitalisation and death rates-is needed to support policy choices when novel RSV products become available.