Mark Jit

Chair and Professor of the Department of Global and Environmental Health

Professional overview

Mark Jit is the inaugural chair and a professor in the Department of Global and Environmental Health. He was formerly head of the Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology & Dynamics and co-director of the Global Health Economics Centre (GHECO) at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM). He holds honorary appointments at LSHTM as well as the University of Hong Kong (HKU) and the National University of Singapore (NUS).

Dr. Jit’s research focuses on epidemiological and economic modeling of vaccines to support evidence-based public health decision making. He has published papers covering a range of vaccine-preventable or potentially vaccine-preventable diseases including COVID-19, measles, HPV, pneumococcus, rotavirus, influenza, Group B Streptococcus, dengue, EV71 and RSV as well as methodological papers advancing the ways vaccines are evaluated. This work has influenced many of the major changes to immunization policy in countries around the world. Dr. Jit has served on a number of expert advisory committees in the UK as well as for international organizations such as the World Health Organization. He also organises or contributes to academic and professional courses on vaccine modeling, economics and decision science around the world.

Dr. Jit received his BSc and PhD in Mathematics from University College London, specializing in mathematical biology, and a Master of Public Health degree from King’s College London.

Visit Dr. Jit's Google Scholar's page to learn more about his research portfolio.

Education

BSc, Mathematics, University College London

PhD, Mathematics, University College London

MPH, Public Health, King's College London

Honors and awards

Clarivate Highly Cited Researcher (20222023)

Fellow of the Academy of Medical Sciences (2023)

Training Fund Award, Health Protection Agency (2007)

Andrew Rosen Prize, University College London (1999)

Institute of Mathematics and its Applications Award (1998)

Departmental Research Studentship, University College London (1998)

Student Union Commendation, University College London (1997)

Fillon Prize, University College London (1996)

Pathfinder Award, University College London (1995)

Publications

Publications

Human papillomavirus vaccine effectiveness by number of doses: Systematic review of data from national immunization programs

Markowitz, L. E., Drolet, M., Perez, N., Jit, M., & Brisson, M. (n.d.).

Publication year

2018

Journal title

Vaccine

Volume

36

Issue

32

Page(s)

4806-4815

10.1016/j.vaccine.2018.01.057

Abstract

Abstract

Background: Human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccines were first licensed as a three-dose series; a two-dose series is now recommended in some age groups and there is interest in possible one-dose vaccination. Methods: We conducted a systematic literature review of HPV vaccine effectiveness by number of doses, including assessment of biases and impact of varying buffer periods (time between vaccination and outcome counting). Results: Of 3787 articles identified, 26 full articles were assessed and 14 included in our review. All studies were conducted within the context of recommended three-dose schedules of bivalent (3) or quadrivalent HPV vaccine (11). Two evaluated effectiveness for prevention of HPV prevalence, six anogenital warts, and six abnormal cervical cytology or histology. Many studies found differences between three-, two- and one-dose vaccine recipients, indicating possible differences in HPV exposure prior to vaccination or in risk behavior. Adjusted or stratified analyses were conducted to control for potential confounding. All studies found significant vaccine effectiveness with three doses, 11 with two doses at various intervals, and six with one dose. Most studies showed a relationship (not always statistically significant) between effectiveness and number of doses, with greater decreases in HPV-related outcomes with three, followed by two and one dose(s). Few studies conducted formal comparisons of three vs fewer doses. Three of four studies that examined buffer periods found higher effectiveness and a smaller difference by number of doses with longer periods. Conclusion: Most post-licensure studies report highest effectiveness with three doses; some found no statistically significant difference between two and three doses. Additionally, almost half found some effectiveness with one dose. Several biases impact estimates, with most biasing two- and one-dose results away from showing effectiveness. Future effectiveness studies, examining persons vaccinated prior to sexual activity and using methods to reduce potential sources of bias, can help inform vaccination policy.

Impact of measles supplementary immunization activities on reaching children missed by routine programs

Portnoy, A., Jit, M., Helleringer, S., & Verguet, S. (n.d.).

Publication year

2018

Journal title

Vaccine

Volume

36

Issue

1

Page(s)

170-178

10.1016/j.vaccine.2017.10.080

Abstract

Abstract

Background Measles supplementary immunization activities (SIAs) are vaccination campaigns that supplement routine vaccination programs with a recommended second dose opportunity to children of different ages regardless of their previous history of measles vaccination. They are conducted every 2–4 years and over a few weeks in many low- and middle-income countries. While SIAs have high vaccination coverage, it is unclear whether they reach the children who miss their routine measles vaccine dose. Determining who is reached by SIAs is vital to understanding their effectiveness, as well as measure progress towards measles control. Methods We examined SIAs in low- and middle-income countries from 2000 to 2014 using data from the Demographic and Health Surveys. Conditional on a child's routine measles vaccination status, we examined whether children participated in the most recent measles SIA. Results The average proportion of zero-dose children (no previous routine measles vaccination defined as no vaccination date before the SIA) reached by SIAs across 14 countries was 66%, ranging from 28% in São Tomé and Príncipe to 91% in Nigeria. However, when also including all children with routine measles vaccination data, this proportion decreased to 12% and to 58% when imputing data for children with vaccination reported by the mother and vaccination marks on the vaccination card across countries. Overall, the proportions of zero-dose children reached by SIAs declined with increasing household wealth. Conclusions Some countries appeared to reach a higher proportion of zero-dose children using SIAs than others, with proportions reached varying according to the definition of measles vaccination (e.g., vaccination dates on the vaccination card, vaccination marks on the vaccination card, and/or self-reported data). This suggests that some countries could improve their targeting of SIAs to children who miss other measles vaccine opportunities. Across all countries, SIAs played an important role in reaching children from poor households.

MCDA from a health economics perspective: Opportunities and pitfalls of extending economic evaluation to incorporate broader outcomes

Jit, M. (n.d.).

Publication year

2018

Journal title

Cost Effectiveness and Resource Allocation

Volume

16

10.1186/s12962-018-0118-7

Abstract

Abstract

Background: Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is a structured decision-making process that offers greater flexibility to incorporate multiple objectives than cost-effectiveness analysis or benefit-cost analysis. Conclusions: The flexibility of MCDA requires careful consideration of its methodological underpinnings, analytical forms and cognitive biases that may arise in eliciting trade-off. The methodology of MCDA should ideally incorporate both deliberative and technical processes.

Model Comparisons of the Effectiveness and Cost-Effectiveness of Vaccination: A Systematic Review of the Literature

Drolet, M., Bénard, Élodie, Jit, M., Hutubessy, R., & Brisson, M. (n.d.).

Publication year

2018

Journal title

Value in Health

Volume

21

Issue

10

Page(s)

1250-1258

10.1016/j.jval.2018.03.014

Abstract

Abstract

Objectives: To describe all published articles that have conducted comparisons of model-based effectiveness and cost-effectiveness results in the field of vaccination. Specific objectives were to 1) describe the methodologies used and 2) identify the strengths and limitations of the studies. Methods: We systematically searched MEDLINE and Embase databases for studies that compared predictions of effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of vaccination of two or more mathematical models. We categorized studies into two groups on the basis of their data source for comparison (previously published results or new simulation results) and performed a qualitative synthesis of study conclusions. Results: We identified 115 eligible articles (only 5% generated new simulations from the reviewed models) examining the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of vaccination against 14 pathogens (69% of studies examined human papillomavirus, influenza, and/or pneumococcal vaccines). The goal of most of studies was to summarize evidence for vaccination policy decisions, and cost-effectiveness was the most frequent outcome examined. Only 33%, 25%, and 3% of studies followed a systematic approach to identify eligible studies, assessed the quality of studies, and performed a quantitative synthesis of results, respectively. A greater proportion of model comparisons using published studies followed a systematic approach to identify eligible studies and to assess their quality, whereas more studies using new simulations performed quantitative synthesis of results and identified drivers of model conclusions. Most comparative modeling studies concluded that vaccination was cost-effective. Conclusions: Given the variability in methods used to conduct/report comparative modeling studies, guidelines are required to enhance their quality and transparency and to provide better tools for decision making.

Potential lives saved in 73 countries by adopting multi-cohort vaccination of 9–14-year-old girls against human papillomavirus

Jit, M., & Brisson, M. (n.d.).

Publication year

2018

Journal title

International Journal of Cancer

Volume

143

Issue

2

Page(s)

317-323

10.1002/ijc.31321

Abstract

Abstract

Up to 2016, low- and middle-income countries mostly introduced routine human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination for just a single age-cohort of girls each year. However, high-income countries have reported large reductions in HPV prevalence following “catch-up” vaccination of multiple age-cohorts in the year of HPV vaccine introduction. We used the mathematical model PRIME to project the incremental impact of vaccinating 10- to 14-year-old girls compared to routine HPV vaccination only in the same year that routine vaccination is expected to be introduced for 9-year-old girls across 73 low- and lower-middle-income countries. Adding multiple age-cohort vaccination could increase the number of cervical cancer deaths averted by vaccine introductions in 2015–2030 by 30–40% or an additional 1.23–1.79 million over the lifetime of the vaccinated cohorts. The number of girls needed to vaccinate to prevent one death is 101 in the most pessimistic scenario, which is only slightly greater than that for routine vaccination of 9-year-old girls (87). These results hold even when assuming that girls who have sexually debuted do not benefit from vaccination. Results suggest that multiple age-cohort vaccination of 9- to 14-year-old girls could accelerate HPV vaccine impact and be cost-effective.

Report on WHO meeting on immunization in older adults: Geneva, Switzerland, 22–23 March 2017

Teresa Aguado, M., Barratt, J., Beard, J. R., Blomberg, B. B., Chen, W. H., Hickling, J., Hyde, T. B., Jit, M., Jones, R., Poland, G. A., Friede, M., & Ortiz, J. R. (n.d.).

Publication year

2018

Journal title

Vaccine

Volume

36

Issue

7

Page(s)

921-931

10.1016/j.vaccine.2017.12.029

Abstract

Abstract

Many industrialized countries have implemented routine immunization policies for older adults, but similar strategies have not been widely implemented in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). In March 2017, the World Health Organization (WHO) convened a meeting to identify policies and activities to promote access to vaccination of older adults, specifically in LMICs. Participants included academic and industry researchers, funders, civil society organizations, implementers of global health interventions, and stakeholders from developing countries with adult immunization needs. These experts reviewed vaccine performance in older adults, the anticipated impact of adult vaccination programs, and the challenges and opportunities of building or strengthening an adult and older adult immunization platforms. Key conclusions of the meeting were that there is a need for discussion of new opportunities for vaccination of all adults as well as for vaccination of older adults, as reflected in the recent shift by WHO to a life-course approach to immunization; that immunization in adults should be viewed in the context of a much broader model based on an individual's abilities rather than chronological age; and that immunization beyond infancy is a global priority that can be successfully integrated with other interventions to promote healthy ageing. As WHO is looking ahead to a global Decade of Healthy Ageing starting in 2020, it will seek to define a roadmap for interdisciplinary collaborations to integrate immunization with improving access to preventive and other healthcare interventions for adults worldwide.

Revisiting the winter burden of acute gastroenteritis on hospital beds in England: change in data collection supports analytical method for previously missing values

Sandmann, F. G., Jit, M., Robotham, J. V., & Deeny, S. R. (n.d.). In Journal of Hospital Infection (1–).

Publication year

2018

Volume

100

Issue

1

Page(s)

115-117

10.1016/j.jhin.2018.06.008

Simultaneously characterizing the comparative economics of routine female adolescent nonavalent human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination and assortativity of sexual mixing in Hong Kong Chinese: A modeling analysis

Choi, H. C., Jit, M., Leung, G. M., Tsui, K. L., & Wu, J. T. (n.d.).

Publication year

2018

Journal title

BMC Medicine

Volume

16

Issue

1

10.1186/s12916-018-1118-3

Abstract

Abstract

Background: Although routine vaccination of females before sexual debut against human papillomavirus (HPV) has been found to be cost-effective around the world, its cost-benefit has rarely been examined. We evaluate both the cost-effectiveness and cost-benefit of routine female adolescent nonavalent HPV vaccination in Hong Kong to guide its policy, and by extension that of mainland China, on HPV vaccination. One major obstacle is the lack of data on assortativity of sexual mixing. Such difficulty could be overcome by inferring sexual mixing parameters from HPV epidemiologic data. Methods: We use an age-structured transmission model coupled with stochastic individual-based simulations to estimate the health and economic impact of routine nonavalent HPV vaccination for girls at age 12 on cervical cancer burden and consider vaccine uptake at 25%, 50%, and 75% with at least 20years of vaccine protection. Bayesian inference was employed to parameterize the model using local data on HPV prevalence and cervical cancer incidence. We use the human capital approach in the cost-benefit analysis (CBA) and GDP per capita as the indicative willingness-to-pay threshold in the cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA). Finally, we estimate the threshold vaccine cost (TVC), which is the maximum cost for fully vaccinating one girl at which routine female adolescent nonavalent HPV vaccination is cost-beneficial or cost-effective. Results: As vaccine uptake increased, TVC decreased (i.e., economically more stringent) in the CBA but increased in the CEA. When vaccine uptake was 75% and the vaccine provided only 20years of protection, the TVC was US$444 ($373-506) and $689 ($646-734) in the CBA and CEA, respectively, increasing by approximately 2-4% if vaccine protection was assumed lifelong. TVC is likely to be far higher when non-cervical diseases are included. The inferred sexual mixing parameters suggest that sexual mixing in Hong Kong is highly assortative by both age and sexual activity level. Conclusions: Routine HPV vaccination of 12-year-old females is highly likely to be cost-beneficial and cost-effective in Hong Kong. Inference of sexual mixing parameters from epidemiologic data of prevalent sexually transmitted diseases (i.e., HPV, chlamydia, etc.) is a potentially fruitful but largely untapped methodology for understanding sexual behaviors in the population.

The equity impact vaccines may have on averting deaths and medical impoverishment in developing countries

Chang, A. Y., Riumallo-Herl, C., Perales, N. A., Clark, S., Clark, A., Constenla, D., Garske, T., Jackson, M. L., Jean, K., Jit, M., Jones, E. O., Li, X., Suraratdecha, C., Bullock, O., Johnson, H., Brenzel, L., & Verguet, S. (n.d.).

Publication year

2018

Journal title

Health Affairs

Volume

37

Issue

2

Page(s)

316-324

10.1377/hlthaff.2017.0861

Abstract

Abstract

With social policies increasingly directed toward enhancing equity through health programs, it is important that methods for estimating the health and economic benefits of these programs by subpopulation be developed, to assess both equity concerns and the programs' total impact. We estimated the differential health impact (measured as the number of deaths averted) and household economic impact (measured as the number of cases of medical impoverishment averted) of ten antigens and their corresponding vaccines across income quintiles for forty-one low- and middle-income countries. Our analysis indicated that benefits across these vaccines would accrue predominantly in the lowest income quintiles. Policy makers should be informed about the large health and economic distributional impact that vaccines could have, and they should view vaccination policies as potentially important channels for improving health equity. Our results provide insight into the distribution of vaccine-preventable diseases and the health benefits associated with their prevention.

Thresholds for decision-making: Informing the cost-effectiveness and affordability of rotavirus vaccines in Malaysia

Loganathan, T., Ng, C. W., Lee, W. S., Hutubessy, R. C., Verguet, S., & Jit, M. (n.d.).

Publication year

2018

Journal title

Health Policy and Planning

Volume

33

Issue

2

Page(s)

204-214

10.1093/heapol/czx166

Abstract

Abstract

Cost-effectiveness thresholds (CETs) based on the Commission on Macroeconomics and Health (CMH) are extensively used in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) lacking locally defined CETs. These thresholds were originally intended for global and regional prioritization, and do not reflect local context or affordability at the national level, so their value for informing resource allocation decisions has been questioned. Using these thresholds, rotavirus vaccines are widely regarded as cost-effective interventions in LMICs. However, high vaccine prices remain a barrier towards vaccine introduction. This study aims to evaluate the cost-effectiveness, affordability and threshold price of universal rotavirus vaccination at various CETs in Malaysia. Cost-effectiveness of Rotarix and RotaTeq were evaluated using a multi-cohort model. Pan American Health Organization Revolving Fund's vaccine prices were used as tender price, while the recommended retail price for Malaysia was used as market price. We estimate threshold prices defined as prices at which vaccination becomes cost-effective, at various CETs reflecting economic theories of human capital, societal willingness-to-pay and marginal productivity. A budget impact analysis compared programmatic costs with the healthcare budget. At tender prices, both vaccines were cost-saving. At market prices, cost-effectiveness differed with thresholds used. At market price, using 'CMH thresholds', Rotarix programmes were cost-effective and RotaTeq were not cost-effective from the healthcare provider's perspective, while both vaccines were cost-effective from the societal perspective. Using other CETs, both vaccines were not cost-effective at market price, from the healthcare provider's and societal perspectives. At tender and cost-effective prices, rotavirus vaccination cost 1 and 3% of the public health budget, respectively. Using locally defined thresholds, rotavirus vaccination is cost-effective at vaccine prices in line with international tenders, but not at market prices. Thresholds representing marginal productivity are likely to be lower than those reflecting human capital and individual preference measures, and may be useful in determining affordable vaccine prices.

Toward economic evaluation of the value of vaccines and other health technologies in addressing AMR

Sevilla, J. P., Bloom, D. E., Cadarette, D., Jit, M., & Lipsitch, M. (n.d.).

Publication year

2018

Journal title

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

Volume

115

Issue

51

Page(s)

12911-12919

10.1073/pnas.1717161115

Abstract

Abstract

We discuss the need to make economic evaluations of vaccines antimicrobial resistance (AMR)-sensitive and ways to do so. Such AMR-sensitive evaluations can play a role in value-for-money comparisons of different vaccines within a national immunization program, or in comparisons of vaccine-centric and nonvaccine-centric technologies within an anti-AMR program. In general terms, incremental cost-effectiveness ratios and rates of return and their associated decision rules are unaltered by consideration of AMR-related value. The decision metrics need to have their various health, cost, and socioeconomic terms disaggregated into resistance-related subcategories, which in turn have to be measured carefully before they are reaggregated. The fundamental scientific challenges lie primarily in quantifying the causal impact of health technologies on resistance-related health outcomes, and secondarily in ascertaining the economic value of those outcomes. We emphasize the importance of evaluating vaccines in the context of other potentially complementary and substitutable nonvaccine technologies. Complementarity implies that optimal spending on each set of interventions is positive, and substitutability implies that the ratio of spending will depend on relative value for money. We exemplify this general point through a qualitative discussion of the complementarities and (especially the) substitutability between pneumococcal conjugate vaccines and antimicrobial stewardship and between research and development (R&D) of a gonorrhea vaccine versus R&D of a gonorrhea antibiotic. We propose a roadmap for future work, which includes quantifying the causal effects of vaccination and other health technologies on short-term and long-term resistance-related outcomes, measuring the health-sector costs and broader socioeconomic consequences of resistance-related mortality and morbidity, and evaluating vaccines in the context of nonvaccine complements and substitutes.

Understanding differences in cervical cancer incidence in Western Europe: Comparing Portugal and England

Mendes, D., Mesher, D., Pista, A., Baguelin, M., & Jit, M. (n.d.).

Publication year

2018

Journal title

European Journal of Public Health

Volume

28

Issue

2

Page(s)

343-347

10.1093/eurpub/ckx176

Abstract

Abstract

Background: Cervical cancer incidence has decreased over time in England particularly after the introduction of organized screening. In Portugal, where opportunistic screening has been widely available with only slightly lower coverage than that of the organized programme in England, rates of cervical cancer have been higher than in England. We compared the burden of cervical cancer, risk factors and preventive interventions over time in both countries, to identify elements hindering the further decline in incidence and mortality in Portugal. Methods: We used joinpoint regression to identify significant changes in rate time-trends. We also analyzed individual-level Portuguese data on sexual behaviour and human papillomavirus prevalence, and recent aggregate data on organized and opportunistic screening coverage. We compared published estimates of survival, risk factors and historical screening coverage for both countries. Results: Despite stable incidence, cervical cancer mortality has declined in both countries in the last decade. The burden has been 4 cases and 1 death per 100 000 women annually higher in Portugal than in England. Differences in human papillomavirus prevalence and risk factors for infection and disease progression do not explain the difference found in cervical cancer incidence. Significant mortality declines in both countries followed the introduction of different screening policies, although England showed a greater decline than Portugal over nearly 2 decades after centralizing organized screening. Conclusion: The higher rates of cervical cancer in Portugal compared to England can be explained by differences in screening quality and coverage.

Use of mathematical modelling to assess the impact of vaccines on antibiotic resistance

Atkins, K. E., Lafferty, E. I., Deeny, S. R., Davies, N. G., Robotham, J. V., & Jit, M. (n.d.).

Publication year

2018

Journal title

The Lancet Infectious Diseases

Volume

18

Issue

6

Page(s)

e204-e213

10.1016/S1473-3099(17)30478-4

Abstract

Abstract

Antibiotic resistance is a major global threat to the provision of safe and effective health care. To control antibiotic resistance, vaccines have been proposed as an essential intervention, complementing improvements in diagnostic testing, antibiotic stewardship, and drug pipelines. The decision to introduce or amend vaccination programmes is routinely based on mathematical modelling. However, few mathematical models address the impact of vaccination on antibiotic resistance. We reviewed the literature using PubMed to identify all studies that used an original mathematical model to quantify the impact of a vaccine on antibiotic resistance transmission within a human population. We reviewed the models from the resulting studies in the context of a new framework to elucidate the pathways through which vaccination might impact antibiotic resistance. We identified eight mathematical modelling studies; the state of the literature highlighted important gaps in our understanding. Notably, studies are limited in the range of pathways represented, their geographical scope, and the vaccine–pathogen combinations assessed. Furthermore, to translate model predictions into public health decision making, more work is needed to understand how model structure and parameterisation affects model predictions and how to embed these predictions within economic frameworks.

Burden of paediatric respiratory syncytial virus disease and potential effect of different immunisation strategies: a modelling and cost-effectiveness analysis for England

Cromer, D., Van Hoek, A. J., Newall, A. T., Pollard, A. J., & Jit, M. (n.d.).

Publication year

2017

Journal title

The Lancet Public Health

Volume

2

Issue

8

Page(s)

e367-e374

10.1016/S2468-2667(17)30103-2

Abstract

Abstract

Background Vaccines and prophylactic antibodies against respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) are in development and likely to be available in the next 5–10 years. The most efficient way to use these products when they become available is an important consideration for public health decision makers. Methods We performed a multivariate regression analysis to estimate the burden of RSV in children younger than 5 years in England (UK), a representative high-income temperate country, and used these results to assess the potential effect of different RSV immunisation strategies (targeting vaccination for infants, or pregnant women, or prophylactic antibodies for neonates). We did a cost-effectiveness analysis for these strategies, implemented either separately or concurrently, and assessed the effect of restricting vaccination to certain months of the year. Findings We estimated that RSV is responsible for 12 primary care consultations (95% CI 11·9–12·1) and 0·9 admissions to hospital annually per 100 children younger than 5 years (95% CI 0·89–0·90), with the major burden occurring in infants younger than 6 months. The most cost-effective strategy was to selectively immunise all children born before the start of the RSV season (maximum price of £220 [95% uncertainty interval (UI) 208–232] per vaccine, for an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of £20 000 per quality-adjusted life-year). The maximum price per fully protected person that should be paid for the infant, newborn, and maternal strategies without seasonal restrictions was £192 (95% UI 168–219), £81 (76–86), and £54 (51–57), respectively. Interpretation Nearly double the number of primary care consultations, and nearly five times the number of admissions to hospital occurred with RSV compared with influenza. RSV vaccine and antibody strategies are likely to be cost-effective if they can be priced below around £200 per fully protected person. A seasonal vaccination strategy is likely to provide the most direct benefits. Herd effects might render a year-round infant vaccination strategy more appealing, although it is currently unclear whether such a programme would induce herd effects. Funding UK National Institute for Health Research.

Burden, duration and costs of hospital bed closures due to acute gastroenteritis in England per winter, 2010/11–2015/16

Sandmann, F. G., Jit, M., Robotham, J. V., & Deeny, S. R. (n.d.).

Publication year

2017

Journal title

Journal of Hospital Infection

Volume

97

Issue

1

Page(s)

79-85

10.1016/j.jhin.2017.05.015

Abstract

Abstract

Background Bed closures due to acute gastroenteritis put hospitals under pressure each winter. In England, the National Health Service (NHS) has monitored the winter situation for all acute trusts since 2010/11. Aim To estimate the burden, duration and costs of hospital bed closures due to acute gastroenteritis in winter. Methods A retrospective analysis of routinely collected time-series data of bed closures due to diarrhoea and vomiting was conducted for the winters 2010/11 to 2015/16. Two key issues were addressed by imputing non-randomly missing values at provider level, and filtering observations to a range of dates recorded in all six winters. The lowest and highest values imputed were taken to represent the best- and worst-case scenarios. Bed-days were costed using NHS reference costs, and potential staff absence costs were based on previous studies. Findings In the best-to-worst case, a median of 88,000–113,000 beds were closed due to gastroenteritis each winter. Of these, 19.6–20.4% were unoccupied. On average, 80% of providers were affected, and had closed beds for a median of 15–21 days each winter. Hospital costs of closed beds were £5.7–£7.5 million, which increased to £6.9–£10.0 million when including staff absence costs due to illness. Conclusions The median number of hospital beds closed due to acute gastroenteritis per winter was equivalent to all general and acute hospital beds in England being unavailable for a median of 0.88–1.12 days. Costs for hospitals are high but vary with closures each winter.

Cervical cancer treatment costs and cost-effectiveness analysis of human papillomavirus vaccination in Vietnam: A PRIME modeling study

Van Minh, H., My, N. T. T., & Jit, M. (n.d.).

Publication year

2017

Journal title

BMC health services research

Volume

17

Issue

1

10.1186/s12913-017-2297-x

Abstract

Abstract

Background: Cervical cancer is currently the leading cause of cancer mortality among women in South Vietnam and the second leading cause of cancer mortality in North Vietnam. Human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination has the potential to substantially decrease this burden. The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends that a cost-effectiveness analysis of HPV vaccination is conducted before nationwide introduction. Methods: The Papillomavirus Rapid Interface for Modeling and Economics (PRIME) model was used to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of HPV vaccine introduction. A costing study based on expert panel discussions, interviews and hospital case note reviews was conducted to explore the cost of cervical cancer care. Results: The cost of cervical cancer treatment ranged from US$368 - 11400 depending on the type of hospital and treatment involved. Under Gavi-negotiated prices of US$4.55, HPV vaccination is likely to be very cost-effective with an incremental cost per disability-adjusted life year (DALY) averted in the range US$780 - 1120. However, under list prices for Cervarix and Gardasil in Vietnam, the incremental cost per DALY averted for HPV vaccination can exceed US$8000. Conclusion: HPV vaccine introduction appears to be economically attractive only if Vietnam is able to procure the vaccine at Gavi prices. This highlights the importance of initiating a nationwide vaccination programme while such prices are still available.

Characterizing measles transmission in India: A dynamic modeling study using verbal autopsy data

Verguet, S., Jones, E. O., Johri, M., Morris, S. K., Suraweera, W., Gauvreau, C. L., Jha, P., & Jit, M. (n.d.).

Publication year

2017

Journal title

BMC Medicine

Volume

15

Issue

1

10.1186/s12916-017-0908-3

Abstract

Abstract

Background: Decreasing trends in measles mortality have been reported in recent years. However, such estimates of measles mortality have depended heavily on assumed regional measles case fatality risks (CFRs) and made little use of mortality data from low- and middle-income countries in general and India, the country with the highest measles burden globally, in particular. Methods: We constructed a dynamic model of measles transmission in India with parameters that were empirically inferred using spectral analysis from a time series of measles mortality extracted from the Million Death Study, an ongoing longitudinal study recording deaths across 2.4 million Indian households and attributing causes of death using verbal autopsy. The model was then used to estimate the measles CFR, the number of measles deaths, and the impact of vaccination in 2000-2015 among under-five children in India and in the states of Bihar and Uttar Pradesh (UP), two states with large populations and the highest numbers of measles deaths in India. Results: We obtained the following estimated CFRs among under-five children for the year 2005: 0.63% (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.40-1.00%) for India as a whole, 0.62% (0.38-1.00%) for Bihar, and 1.19% (0.80-1.75%) for UP. During 2000-2015, we estimated that 607,000 (95% CI: 383,000-958,000) under-five deaths attributed to measles occurred in India as a whole. If no routine vaccination or supplemental immunization activities had occurred from 2000 to 2015, an additional 1.6 (1.0-2.6) million deaths for under-five children would have occurred across India. Conclusions: We developed a data- and model-driven estimation of the historical measles dynamics, CFR, and vaccination impact in India, extracting the periodicity of epidemics using spectral and coherence analysis, which allowed us to infer key parameters driving measles transmission dynamics and mortality.

Chlamydia sequelae cost estimates used in current economic evaluations: Does one-size-fit-all?

Ong, K. J., Soldan, K., Jit, M., Dunbar, J. K., & Woodhall, S. C. (n.d.).

Publication year

2017

Journal title

Sexually transmitted infections

Volume

93

Issue

1

Page(s)

18-24

10.1136/sextrans-2016-052597

Abstract

Abstract

Background Current evidence suggests that chlamydia screening programmes can be cost-effective, conditional on assumptions within mathematical models. We explored differences in cost estimates used in published economic evaluations of chlamydia screening from seven countries (four papers each from UK and the Netherlands, two each from Sweden and Australia, and one each from Ireland, Canada and Denmark). Methods From these studies, we extracted management cost estimates for seven major chlamydia sequelae. In order to compare the influence of different sequelae considered in each paper and their corresponding management costs on the total cost per case of untreated chlamydia, we applied reported unit sequelae management costs considered in each paper to a set of untreated infection to sequela progression probabilities. All costs were adjusted to 2013/2014 Great British Pound (GBP) values. Results Sequelae management costs ranged from £171 to £3635 (pelvic inflammatory disease); £953 to £3615 (ectopic pregnancy); £546 to £6752 (tubal factor infertility); £159 to £3341 (chronic pelvic pain); £22 to £1008 (epididymitis); £11 to £1459 (neonatal conjunctivitis) and £433 to £3992 (neonatal pneumonia). Total cost of sequelae per case of untreated chlamydia ranged from £37 to £412. Conclusions There was substantial variation in cost per case of chlamydia sequelae used in published chlamydia screening economic evaluations, which likely arose from different assumptions about disease management pathways and the country perspectives taken. In light of this, when interpreting these studies, the reader should be satisfied that the cost estimates used sufficiently reflect the perspective taken and current disease management for their respective context.

Cost-effectiveness of 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccination in Mongolia

Sundaram, N., Chen, C., Yoong, J., Luvsan, M. E., Fox, K., Sarankhuu, A., La Vincente, S., & Jit, M. (n.d.).

Publication year

2017

Journal title

Vaccine

Volume

35

Issue

7

Page(s)

1055-1063

10.1016/j.vaccine.2016.12.070

Abstract

Abstract

Objective The Ministry of Health (MOH), Mongolia, is considering introducing 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) in its national immunization programme to prevent the burden of disease caused by Streptococcus pneumoniae. This study evaluates the cost-effectiveness and budget impact of introducing PCV13 compared to no PCV vaccination in Mongolia. Methods The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of introducing PCV13 compared to no PCV vaccination was assessed using an age-stratified static multiple cohort model. The risk of various clinical presentations of pneumococcal disease (meningitis, pneumonia, non-meningitis non-pneumonia invasive pneumococcal disease and acute otitis media) at all ages for thirty birth cohorts was assessed. The analysis considered both health system and societal perspectives. A 3 + 0 vaccine schedule and price of US$3.30 per dose was assumed for the baseline scenario based on Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance's advance market commitment tail price. Results The ICER of PCV13 introduction is estimated at US$52 per disability-adjusted life year (DALY) averted (health system perspective), and cost-saving (societal perspective). Although indirect effects of PCV have been well-documented, a conservative scenario that does not consider indirect effects estimated PCV13 introduction to cost US$79 per DALY averted (health system perspective), and US$19 per DALY averted (societal perspective). Vaccination with PCV13 is expected to cost around US$920,000 in 2016, and thereafter US$820,000 every year. The programme is likely to reduce direct disease-related costs to MOH by US$440,000 in the first year, increasing to US$510,000 by 2025. Conclusion Introducing PCV13 as part of Mongolia's national programme appears to be highly cost-effective when compared to no vaccination and cost-saving from a societal perspective at vaccine purchase prices offered through Gavi. Notwithstanding uncertainties around some parameters, cost-effectiveness of PCV introduction for Mongolia remains robust over a range of conservative scenarios. Availability of high-quality national data would improve future economic analyses for vaccine introduction.

Economic costs and health-related quality of life for hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) patients in China

Zheng, Y., Jit, M., Wu, J. T., Yang, J., Leung, K., Liao, Q., & Yu, H. (n.d.).

Publication year

2017

Journal title

PloS one

Volume

12

Issue

9

10.1371/journal.pone.0184266

Abstract

Abstract

Background: Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) is a common illness in China that mainly affects infants and children. The objective of this study is to assess the economic cost and health-related quality of life associated with HFMD in China. Method: A telephone survey of caregivers were conducted in 31 provinces across China. Caregivers of laboratory-confirmed HFMD patients who were registered in the national HFMD enhanced surveillance database during 2012–2013 were invited to participate in the survey. Total costs included direct medical costs (outpatient care, inpatient care and self-medication), direct non-medical costs (transportation, nutrition, accommodation and nursery), and indirect costs for lost income associated with caregiving. Health utility weights elicited using EuroQol EQ-5D-3L and EQ-Visual Analogue Scale (VAS) were used to calculate associated loss in quality adjusted life years (QALYs). Results: The subjects comprised 1136 mild outpatients, 1124 mild inpatients, 1170 severe cases and 61 fatal cases. The mean total costs for mild outpatients, mild inpatients, severe cases and fatal cases were $201 (95%CI $187, $215), $1072 (95%CI $999, $1144), $3051 (95%CI $2905, $3197) and $2819 (95%CI $2068, $3571) respectively. The mean QALY losses per HFMD episode for mild outpatients, mild inpatients and severe cases were 3.6 (95%CI 3.4, 3,9), 6.9 (95%CI 6.4, 7.4) and 13.7 (95%CI 12.9, 14.5) per 1000 persons. Cases who were diagnosed with EV-A71 infection and had longer duration of illness were associated with higher total cost and QALY loss. Conclusion: HFMD poses a high economic and health burden in China. Our results provide economic and health utility data for cost-effectiveness analysis for HFMD vaccination in China.

Impact and cost-effectiveness of selective human papillomavirus vaccination of men who have sex with men

Lin, A., Ong, K. J., Hobbelen, P., King, E., Mesher, D., Edmunds, W. J., Sonnenberg, P., Gilson, R., Bains, I., Choi, Y. H., Tanton, C., Soldan, K., & Jit, M. (n.d.).

Publication year

2017

Journal title

Clinical Infectious Diseases

Volume

64

Issue

5

Page(s)

580-588

10.1093/cid/ciw845

Abstract

Abstract

Background. Men who have sex with men (MSM) have a high lifetime risk of anogenital warts and cancers related to infection with human papillomavirus (HPV). They also benefit less from herd protection than heterosexual males in settings with female-only HPV vaccination. Methods. We evaluated the potential health impact and cost-effectiveness of offering vaccination to MSM who visit genitourinary medicine (GUM) clinics. We used a mathematical model of HPV 6/11/16/18 sexual transmission within an MSM population in England, parameterized with sexual behaviour, GUM attendance, HPV prevalence, HIV prevalence, warts, and cancer incidence data. Interventions considered were offering HPV vaccination to either HIV-positive MSM or MSM regardless of HIV status, for age bands 16-25, 16-30, 16-35, and 16-40 years. Results. Substantial declines in anogenital warts and male HPV-related cancer incidence are projected to occur following an offer of vaccination to MSM. MSM not attending GUM clinics will partially benefit from herd protection. Offering vaccination to HIV-positive MSM up to age 40 is likely to be cost-effective if vaccine procurement and administration costs are below £96.50 a dose. At £48 a dose, offering vaccination to all MSM up to age 40 is likely to be cost-effective. Conclusions. Quadrivalent HPV vaccination of MSM via GUM clinics is likely to be an effective and cost-effective way of reducing the burden of HPV-related disease in MSM.

Mini-review: Can non-human leucocyte antigen genes determine susceptibility to severe dengue syndromes?

Ng, D., Ghosh, A., Jit, M., & Seneviratne, S. L. (n.d.).

Publication year

2017

Journal title

Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene

Volume

111

Issue

9

Page(s)

384-392

10.1093/trstmh/trx075

Abstract

Abstract

Dengue viral infections are endemic or epidemic in virtually all tropical countries. Among individuals infected with the dengue virus, severe dengue syndromes (i.e., dengue haemorrhagic fever and dengue shock syndromes) tend to affect only some and this may be due to a combination of host genetic susceptibility and viral factors. In this review article we analyse and discuss the present knowledge of non-human leucocyte antigen host genetic susceptibility to severe dengue syndromes. The relevance of genetic polymorphisms in the pathways of antigen recognition, uptake, processing and presentation, activation of interferon α responses, mast cell and complement activation and T cell activation and dengue disease severity has been reviewed and analysed.

Modelling multi-site transmission of the human papillomavirus and its impact on vaccination effectiveness

Lemieux-Mellouki, P., Drolet, M., Jit, M., Gingras, G., & Brisson, M. (n.d.).

Publication year

2017

Journal title

Epidemics

Volume

21

Page(s)

80-87

10.1016/j.epidem.2017.08.001

Abstract

Abstract

Objective: Previous HPV models have only included genital transmission, when evidence suggests that transmission between several anatomical sites occurs. We compared model predictions of population-level HPV vaccination effectiveness against genital HPV16 infection in women, using a 1) uni-site (genital site), and a 2) multi-site model (genital and one extragenital site). Methods: We developed a uni-site and a multi-site deterministic HPV transmission model, assuming natural immunity was either site-specific or systemic. Both models were calibrated to genital HPV16 prevalence (5%–7.5%), whilst the multi-site model was calibrated to HPV16 prevalence representative of oral (0%–1%) and anal (1%–7.5%) sites. For each model, we identified 2500 parameter sets that fit endemic genital and extragenital prevalences within pre-specified target ranges. In the Base-case analysis, vaccination was girls-only with 40% coverage. Vaccine efficacy was 100% for all sites with lifetime protection. The outcome was the relative reduction in genital HPV16 prevalence among women at post-vaccination equilibrium (RRprev). RRprev was stratified by extragenital prevalence pre-vaccination. Results: Under assumptions of site-specific immunity, RRprev with the multi-site model was generally greater than with the uni-site model. Differences between the uni-site and multi-site models were greater when transmission from the extragenital site to the genital site was high. Under assumptions of systemic immunity, the multi-site and uni-site models yielded similar RRprev in the scenario without immunity after extragenital infection. In the scenario with systemic immunity after extragenital infection, the multi-site model yielded lower predictions of RRprev than the uni-site model. Conclusions: Modelling genital-site only transmission may overestimate vaccination impact if extragenital infections contribute to systemic natural immunity or underestimate vaccination impact if a high proportion of genital infections originate from extragenital infections. Under current understanding of heterosexual HPV transmission and immunity, a substantial bias from using uni-site models in predicting vaccination effectiveness against genital HPV infection is unlikely to occur.

Projecting social contact matrices in 152 countries using contact surveys and demographic data

Prem, K., Cook, A. R., & Jit, M. (n.d.).

Publication year

2017

Journal title

PLoS computational biology

Volume

13

Issue

9

10.1371/journal.pcbi.1005697

Abstract

Abstract

Heterogeneities in contact networks have a major effect in determining whether a pathogen can become epidemic or persist at endemic levels. Epidemic models that determine which interventions can successfully prevent an outbreak need to account for social structure and mixing patterns. Contact patterns vary across age and locations (e.g. home, work, and school), and including them as predictors in transmission dynamic models of pathogens that spread socially will improve the models’ realism. Data from population-based contact diaries in eight European countries from the POLYMOD study were projected to 144 other countries using a Bayesian hierarchical model that estimated the proclivity of age-and-location-specific contact patterns for the countries, using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation. Household level data from the Demographic and Health Surveys for nine lower-income countries and socio-demographic factors from several on-line databases for 152 countries were used to quantify similarity of countries to estimate contact patterns in the home, work, school and other locations for countries for which no contact data are available, accounting for demographic structure, household structure where known, and a variety of metrics including workforce participation and school enrolment. Contacts are highly assortative with age across all countries considered, but pronounced regional differences in the age-specific contacts at home were noticeable, with more inter-generational contacts in Asian countries than in other settings. Moreover, there were variations in contact patterns by location, with work-place contacts being least assortative. These variations led to differences in the effect of social distancing measures in an age structured epidemic model. Contacts have an important role in transmission dynamic models that use contact rates to characterize the spread of contact-transmissible diseases. This study provides estimates of mixing patterns for societies for which contact data such as POLYMOD are not yet available.

Seropositivity to non-vaccine incorporated genotypes induced by the bivalent and quadrivalent HPV vaccines: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Bissett, S. L., Godi, A., Jit, M., & Beddows, S. (n.d.).

Publication year

2017

Journal title

Vaccine

Volume

35

Issue

32

Page(s)

3922-3929

10.1016/j.vaccine.2017.06.028

Abstract

Abstract

Background Human papillomavirus vaccines have demonstrated remarkable efficacy against persistent infection and disease associated with vaccine-incorporated genotypes and a degree of efficacy against some genetically related, non-vaccine-incorporated genotypes. The vaccines differ in the extent of cross-protection against these non-vaccine genotypes. Data supporting the role for neutralizing antibodies as a correlate or surrogate of cross-protection are lacking, as is a robust assessment of the seroconversion rates against these non-vaccine genotypes. Methods We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of available data on vaccine-induced neutralizing antibody seropositivity to non-vaccine incorporated HPV genotypes. Results Of 304 articles screened, 9 were included in the analysis representing ca. 700 individuals. The pooled estimate for seropositivity against HPV31 for the bivalent vaccine (86%; 95%CI 78–91%) was higher than that for the quadrivalent vaccine (61%; 39–79%; p = 0.011). The pooled estimate for seropositivity against HPV45 for the bivalent vaccine (50%; 37–64%) was also higher than that for the quadrivalent vaccine (16%; 6–36%; p = 0.007). Seropositivity against HPV33, HPV52 and HPV58 were similar between the vaccines. Mean seropositivity rates across non-vaccine genotypes were positively associated with the corresponding vaccine efficacy data reported from vaccine trials. Conclusions These data improve our understanding of vaccine-induced functional antibody specificity against non-vaccine incorporated genotypes and may help to parameterize vaccine-impact models and improve patient management in a post-vaccine setting.