Mark Jit
Mark Jit
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Chair and Professor of the Department of Global and Environmental Health
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Professional overview
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Mark Jit is the inaugural chair and a professor in the Department of Global and Environmental Health. He was formerly head of the Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology & Dynamics and co-director of the Global Health Economics Centre (GHECO) at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM). He holds honorary appointments at LSHTM as well as the University of Hong Kong (HKU) and the National University of Singapore (NUS).
Dr. Jit’s research focuses on epidemiological and economic modeling of vaccines to support evidence-based public health decision making. He has published papers covering a range of vaccine-preventable or potentially vaccine-preventable diseases including COVID-19, measles, HPV, pneumococcus, rotavirus, influenza, Group B Streptococcus, dengue, EV71 and RSV as well as methodological papers advancing the ways vaccines are evaluated. This work has influenced many of the major changes to immunization policy in countries around the world. Dr. Jit has served on a number of expert advisory committees in the UK as well as for international organizations such as the World Health Organization. He also organises or contributes to academic and professional courses on vaccine modeling, economics and decision science around the world.
Dr. Jit received his BSc and PhD in Mathematics from University College London, specializing in mathematical biology, and a Master of Public Health degree from King’s College London.
Visit Dr. Jit's Google Scholar's page to learn more about his research portfolio.
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Education
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BSc, Mathematics, University College LondonPhD, Mathematics, University College LondonMPH, Public Health, King's College London
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Honors and awards
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Clarivate Highly Cited Researcher (20222023)Fellow of the Academy of Medical Sciences (2023)Training Fund Award, Health Protection Agency (2007)Andrew Rosen Prize, University College London (1999)Institute of Mathematics and its Applications Award (1998)Departmental Research Studentship, University College London (1998)Student Union Commendation, University College London (1997)Fillon Prize, University College London (1996)Pathfinder Award, University College London (1995)
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Publications
Publications
Economic Analysis of Vaccination Programs
AbstractMauskopf, J., Standaert, B., Connolly, M. P., Culyer, A. J., Garrison, L. P., Hutubessy, R., Jit, M., Pitman, R., Revill, P., & Severens, J. L. (n.d.).Publication year
2018Journal title
Value in HealthVolume
21Issue
10Page(s)
1133-1149AbstractThis report provides recommendations for budget holders and decision makers in high-, middle, and low-income countries requiring economic analyses of new vaccination programs to allocate scarce resources given budget constraints. ISPOR's Economic Evaluation of Vaccines Designed to Prevent Infectious Disease: Good Practices Task Force wrote guidelines for three analytic methods and solicited comments on them from external reviewers. Cost-effectiveness analyses use decision-analytic models to estimate cumulative changes in resource use, costs, and changes in quality- or disability-adjusted life-years attributable to changes in disease outcomes. Constrained optimization modeling uses a mathematical objective function to be optimized (e.g. disease cases avoided) for a target population for a set of interventions including vaccination programs within established constraints. Fiscal health modeling estimates changes in net present value of government revenues and expenditures attributable to changes in disease outcomes. The task force recommends that those designing economic analyses for new vaccination programs take into account the decision maker's policy objectives and country-specific decision context when estimating: uptake rate in the target population; vaccination program's impact on disease cases in the population over time using a dynamic transmission epidemiologic model; vaccination program implementation and operating costs; and the changes in costs and health outcomes of the target disease(s). The three approaches to economic analysis are complementary and can be used alone or together to estimate a vaccination program's economic value for national, regional, or subregional decision makers in high-, middle-, and low-income countries.Estimating burden of influenza-associated influenza-like illness and severe acute respiratory infection at public healthcare facilities in Romania during the 2011/12-2015/16 influenza seasons
AbstractGefenaite, G., Pistol, A., Popescu, R., Popovici, O., Ciurea, D., Dolk, C., Jit, M., & Gross, D. (n.d.).Publication year
2018Journal title
Influenza and other Respiratory VirusesVolume
12Issue
1Page(s)
183-192AbstractBackground: Influenza is responsible for substantial morbidity and mortality, but there is limited information on reliable disease burden estimates, especially from middle-income countries in the WHO European Region. Objectives: To estimate the incidence of medically attended influenza-associated influenza-like illness (ILI) and hospitalizations due to severe acute respiratory infection (SARI) presenting to public healthcare facilities in Romania. Patients/Methods: Sentinel influenza surveillance data for ILI and SARI from 2011/12-2015/16, including virological data, were used to estimate influenza-associated ILI and SARI incidence/100 000 and their 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). Results: The overall annual incidence of ILI and influenza-associated ILI per 100 000 persons in Romania varied between 68 (95% CI: 61-76) and 318 (95% CI: 298-338) and between 23 (95% CI: 19-29) and 189 (95% CI: 149-240), respectively. The highest ILI and influenza incidence was among children aged 0-4 years. We estimated that SARI incidence per 100 000 persons was 6 (95% CI: 5-7) to 9 (95% CI: 8-10), of which 2 (95% CI: 1-2) to 3 (95% CI: 2-4) were due to influenza. Up to 0.3% of the Romanian population were annually reported with ILI, and 0.01% was hospitalized with SARI, of which as much as one-third could be explained by influenza. Conclusions: This evaluation was the first study estimating influenza burden in Romania. We found that during each influenza season, a substantial number of persons in Romania suffer from influenza-related ILI or are hospitalized due to influenza-associated SARI.Estimating the Hospital Burden of Norovirus-Associated Gastroenteritis in England and Its Opportunity Costs for Nonadmitted Patients
AbstractSandmann, F. G., Shallcross, L., Adams, N., Allen, D. J., Coen, P. G., Jeanes, A., Kozlakidis, Z., Larkin, L., Wurie, F., Robotham, J. V., Jit, M., & Deeny, S. R. (n.d.).Publication year
2018Journal title
Clinical Infectious DiseasesVolume
67Issue
5Page(s)
693-700AbstractBackground. Norovirus places a substantial burden on healthcare systems, arising from infected patients, disease outbreaks, beds kept unoccupied for infection control, and staff absences due to infection. In settings with high rates of bed occupancy, opportunity costs arise from patients who cannot be admitted due to beds being unavailable. With several treatments and vaccines against norovirus in development, quantifying the expected economic burden is timely. Methods. The number of inpatients with norovirus-associated gastroenteritis in England was modeled using infectious and noninfectious gastrointestinal Hospital Episode Statistics codes and laboratory reports of gastrointestinal pathogens collected at Public Health England. The excess length of stay from norovirus was estimated with a multistate model and local outbreak data. Unoccupied bed-days and staff absences were estimated from national outbreak surveillance. The burden was valued conventionally using accounting expenditures and wages, which we contrasted to the opportunity costs from forgone patients using a novel methodology. Results. Between July 2013 and June 2016, 17.7% (95% confidence interval [CI], 15.6%?21.6%) of primary and 23.8% (95% CI,20.6%?29.9%) of secondary gastrointestinal diagnoses were norovirus attributable. Annually, the estimated median 290 000 (interquartile range, 282 000?297 000) occupied and unoccupied bed-days used for norovirus displaced 57 800 patients. Conventional costs for the National Health Service reached 107.6 million; the economic burden approximated to 297.7 million and a loss of 6300 quality-adjusted life-years annually. Conclusions. In England, norovirus is now the second-largest contributor of the gastrointestinal hospital burden. With the projected impact being greater than previously estimated, improved capture of relevant opportunity costs seems imperative for diseases such as norovirus.Estimating the opportunity costs of bed-days
AbstractSandmann, F. G., Robotham, J. V., Deeny, S. R., Edmunds, W. J., & Jit, M. (n.d.).Publication year
2018Journal title
Health Economics (United Kingdom)Volume
27Issue
3Page(s)
592-605AbstractOpportunity costs of bed-days are fundamental to understanding the value of healthcare systems. They greatly influence burden of disease estimations and economic evaluations involving stays in healthcare facilities. However, different estimation techniques employ assumptions that differ crucially in whether to consider the value of the second-best alternative use forgone, of any available alternative use, or the value of the actually chosen alternative. Informed by economic theory, this paper provides a taxonomic framework of methodologies for estimating the opportunity costs of resources. This taxonomy is then applied to bed-days by classifying existing approaches accordingly. We highlight differences in valuation between approaches and the perspective adopted, and we use our framework to appraise the assumptions and biases underlying the standard approaches that have been widely adopted mostly unquestioned in the past, such as the conventional use of reference costs and administrative accounting data. Drawing on these findings, we present a novel approach for estimating the opportunity costs of bed-days in terms of health forgone for the second-best patient, but expressed monetarily. This alternative approach effectively re-connects to the concept of choice and explicitly considers net benefits. It is broadly applicable across settings and for other resources besides bed-days.Human papillomavirus infection : Protocol for a randomised controlled trial of imiquimod cream (5%) versus podophyllotoxin cream (0.15%), in combination with quadrivalent human papillomavirus or control vaccination in the treatment and prevention of recurrence of anogenital warts (HIPvac trial)
AbstractMurray, M. L., Meadows, J., Doré, C. J., Copas, A. J., Haddow, L. J., Lacey, C., Jit, M., Soldan, K., Bennett, K., Tetlow, M., Nathan, M., & Gilson, R. (n.d.).Publication year
2018Journal title
BMC Medical Research MethodologyVolume
18Issue
1AbstractBackground: Anogenital warts are the second most common sexually transmitted infection diagnosed in sexual health services in England. About 90% of genital warts are caused by human papillomavirus (HPV) types 6 or 11, and half of episodes diagnosed are recurrences. The best and most cost-effective treatment for patients with anogenital warts is unknown. The commonly used treatments are self-administered topical agents, podophyllotoxin (0.15% cream) or imiquimod (5% cream), or cryotherapy with liquid nitrogen. Quadrivalent HPV (qHPV) vaccination is effective in preventing infection, and disease, but whether it has any therapeutic effect is not known. Methods and design: To investigate the efficacy of clearance and prevention of recurrence of external anogenital warts by topical treatments, podophyllotoxin 0.15% cream or imiquimod 5% cream, in combination with a three-dose regimen of qHPV or control vaccination. 500 adult patients presenting with external anogenital warts with either a first or subsequent episode of anogenital warts will be entered into this randomised, controlled partially blinded 2 × 2 factorial trial. Discussion: The trial is expected to provide the first high-quality evidence of the comparative efficacy and cost-effectiveness of the two topical treatments in current use, as well as investigate the potential benefit of HPV vaccination, in the management of anogenital warts. Trial registration: The trial was registered prior to starting recruitment under the following reference numbers: International Standard Randomized Controlled Trial Number (ISRCTN) Registry - ISRCTN32729817 (registered 25 July 2014); European Union Clinical Trials Register (EudraCT) - 2013-002951-14 (registered 26 June 2013).Human papillomavirus vaccine effectiveness by number of doses : Systematic review of data from national immunization programs
AbstractMarkowitz, L. E., Drolet, M., Perez, N., Jit, M., & Brisson, M. (n.d.).Publication year
2018Journal title
VaccineVolume
36Issue
32Page(s)
4806-4815AbstractBackground: Human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccines were first licensed as a three-dose series; a two-dose series is now recommended in some age groups and there is interest in possible one-dose vaccination. Methods: We conducted a systematic literature review of HPV vaccine effectiveness by number of doses, including assessment of biases and impact of varying buffer periods (time between vaccination and outcome counting). Results: Of 3787 articles identified, 26 full articles were assessed and 14 included in our review. All studies were conducted within the context of recommended three-dose schedules of bivalent (3) or quadrivalent HPV vaccine (11). Two evaluated effectiveness for prevention of HPV prevalence, six anogenital warts, and six abnormal cervical cytology or histology. Many studies found differences between three-, two- and one-dose vaccine recipients, indicating possible differences in HPV exposure prior to vaccination or in risk behavior. Adjusted or stratified analyses were conducted to control for potential confounding. All studies found significant vaccine effectiveness with three doses, 11 with two doses at various intervals, and six with one dose. Most studies showed a relationship (not always statistically significant) between effectiveness and number of doses, with greater decreases in HPV-related outcomes with three, followed by two and one dose(s). Few studies conducted formal comparisons of three vs fewer doses. Three of four studies that examined buffer periods found higher effectiveness and a smaller difference by number of doses with longer periods. Conclusion: Most post-licensure studies report highest effectiveness with three doses; some found no statistically significant difference between two and three doses. Additionally, almost half found some effectiveness with one dose. Several biases impact estimates, with most biasing two- and one-dose results away from showing effectiveness. Future effectiveness studies, examining persons vaccinated prior to sexual activity and using methods to reduce potential sources of bias, can help inform vaccination policy.MCDA from a health economics perspective : Opportunities and pitfalls of extending economic evaluation to incorporate broader outcomes
AbstractJit, M. (n.d.).Publication year
2018Journal title
Cost Effectiveness and Resource AllocationVolume
16AbstractBackground: Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is a structured decision-making process that offers greater flexibility to incorporate multiple objectives than cost-effectiveness analysis or benefit-cost analysis. Conclusions: The flexibility of MCDA requires careful consideration of its methodological underpinnings, analytical forms and cognitive biases that may arise in eliciting trade-off. The methodology of MCDA should ideally incorporate both deliberative and technical processes.Model Comparisons of the Effectiveness and Cost-Effectiveness of Vaccination : A Systematic Review of the Literature
AbstractDrolet, M., Bénard, É., Jit, M., Hutubessy, R., & Brisson, M. (n.d.).Publication year
2018Journal title
Value in HealthVolume
21Issue
10Page(s)
1250-1258AbstractObjectives: To describe all published articles that have conducted comparisons of model-based effectiveness and cost-effectiveness results in the field of vaccination. Specific objectives were to 1) describe the methodologies used and 2) identify the strengths and limitations of the studies. Methods: We systematically searched MEDLINE and Embase databases for studies that compared predictions of effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of vaccination of two or more mathematical models. We categorized studies into two groups on the basis of their data source for comparison (previously published results or new simulation results) and performed a qualitative synthesis of study conclusions. Results: We identified 115 eligible articles (only 5% generated new simulations from the reviewed models) examining the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of vaccination against 14 pathogens (69% of studies examined human papillomavirus, influenza, and/or pneumococcal vaccines). The goal of most of studies was to summarize evidence for vaccination policy decisions, and cost-effectiveness was the most frequent outcome examined. Only 33%, 25%, and 3% of studies followed a systematic approach to identify eligible studies, assessed the quality of studies, and performed a quantitative synthesis of results, respectively. A greater proportion of model comparisons using published studies followed a systematic approach to identify eligible studies and to assess their quality, whereas more studies using new simulations performed quantitative synthesis of results and identified drivers of model conclusions. Most comparative modeling studies concluded that vaccination was cost-effective. Conclusions: Given the variability in methods used to conduct/report comparative modeling studies, guidelines are required to enhance their quality and transparency and to provide better tools for decision making.Model Comparisons of the Effectiveness and Cost-Effectiveness of Vaccination : A Systematic Review of the Literature
AbstractDrolet, M., Bénard, É., Jit, M., Hutubessy, R., & Brisson, M. (n.d.).Publication year
2018Journal title
Value in HealthVolume
21Issue
10Page(s)
1250-1258AbstractObjectives: To describe all published articles that have conducted comparisons of model-based effectiveness and cost-effectiveness results in the field of vaccination. Specific objectives were to 1) describe the methodologies used and 2) identify the strengths and limitations of the studies. Methods: We systematically searched MEDLINE and Embase databases for studies that compared predictions of effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of vaccination of two or more mathematical models. We categorized studies into two groups on the basis of their data source for comparison (previously published results or new simulation results) and performed a qualitative synthesis of study conclusions. Results: We identified 115 eligible articles (only 5% generated new simulations from the reviewed models) examining the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of vaccination against 14 pathogens (69% of studies examined human papillomavirus, influenza, and/or pneumococcal vaccines). The goal of most of studies was to summarize evidence for vaccination policy decisions, and cost-effectiveness was the most frequent outcome examined. Only 33%, 25%, and 3% of studies followed a systematic approach to identify eligible studies, assessed the quality of studies, and performed a quantitative synthesis of results, respectively. A greater proportion of model comparisons using published studies followed a systematic approach to identify eligible studies and to assess their quality, whereas more studies using new simulations performed quantitative synthesis of results and identified drivers of model conclusions. Most comparative modeling studies concluded that vaccination was cost-effective. Conclusions: Given the variability in methods used to conduct/report comparative modeling studies, guidelines are required to enhance their quality and transparency and to provide better tools for decision making.Potential lives saved in 73 countries by adopting multi-cohort vaccination of 9–14-year-old girls against human papillomavirus
AbstractJit, M., & Brisson, M. (n.d.).Publication year
2018Journal title
International Journal of CancerVolume
143Issue
2Page(s)
317-323AbstractUp to 2016, low- and middle-income countries mostly introduced routine human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination for just a single age-cohort of girls each year. However, high-income countries have reported large reductions in HPV prevalence following “catch-up” vaccination of multiple age-cohorts in the year of HPV vaccine introduction. We used the mathematical model PRIME to project the incremental impact of vaccinating 10- to 14-year-old girls compared to routine HPV vaccination only in the same year that routine vaccination is expected to be introduced for 9-year-old girls across 73 low- and lower-middle-income countries. Adding multiple age-cohort vaccination could increase the number of cervical cancer deaths averted by vaccine introductions in 2015–2030 by 30–40% or an additional 1.23–1.79 million over the lifetime of the vaccinated cohorts. The number of girls needed to vaccinate to prevent one death is 101 in the most pessimistic scenario, which is only slightly greater than that for routine vaccination of 9-year-old girls (87). These results hold even when assuming that girls who have sexually debuted do not benefit from vaccination. Results suggest that multiple age-cohort vaccination of 9- to 14-year-old girls could accelerate HPV vaccine impact and be cost-effective.Report on WHO meeting on immunization in older adults : Geneva, Switzerland, 22–23 March 2017
AbstractTeresa Aguado, M., Barratt, J., Beard, J. R., Blomberg, B. B., Chen, W. H., Hickling, J., Hyde, T. B., Jit, M., Jones, R., Poland, G. A., Friede, M., & Ortiz, J. R. (n.d.).Publication year
2018Journal title
VaccineVolume
36Issue
7Page(s)
921-931AbstractMany industrialized countries have implemented routine immunization policies for older adults, but similar strategies have not been widely implemented in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). In March 2017, the World Health Organization (WHO) convened a meeting to identify policies and activities to promote access to vaccination of older adults, specifically in LMICs. Participants included academic and industry researchers, funders, civil society organizations, implementers of global health interventions, and stakeholders from developing countries with adult immunization needs. These experts reviewed vaccine performance in older adults, the anticipated impact of adult vaccination programs, and the challenges and opportunities of building or strengthening an adult and older adult immunization platforms. Key conclusions of the meeting were that there is a need for discussion of new opportunities for vaccination of all adults as well as for vaccination of older adults, as reflected in the recent shift by WHO to a life-course approach to immunization; that immunization in adults should be viewed in the context of a much broader model based on an individual's abilities rather than chronological age; and that immunization beyond infancy is a global priority that can be successfully integrated with other interventions to promote healthy ageing. As WHO is looking ahead to a global Decade of Healthy Ageing starting in 2020, it will seek to define a roadmap for interdisciplinary collaborations to integrate immunization with improving access to preventive and other healthcare interventions for adults worldwide.Revisiting the winter burden of acute gastroenteritis on hospital beds in England : change in data collection supports analytical method for previously missing values
AbstractSandmann, F. G., Jit, M., Robotham, J. V., Deeny, S. R., & Jit, M. (n.d.).Publication year
2018Journal title
Journal of Hospital InfectionVolume
100Issue
1Page(s)
115-117Abstract~Simultaneously characterizing the comparative economics of routine female adolescent nonavalent human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination and assortativity of sexual mixing in Hong Kong Chinese : A modeling analysis
AbstractChoi, H. C., Jit, M., Leung, G. M., Tsui, K. L., & Wu, J. T. (n.d.).Publication year
2018Journal title
BMC MedicineVolume
16Issue
1AbstractBackground: Although routine vaccination of females before sexual debut against human papillomavirus (HPV) has been found to be cost-effective around the world, its cost-benefit has rarely been examined. We evaluate both the cost-effectiveness and cost-benefit of routine female adolescent nonavalent HPV vaccination in Hong Kong to guide its policy, and by extension that of mainland China, on HPV vaccination. One major obstacle is the lack of data on assortativity of sexual mixing. Such difficulty could be overcome by inferring sexual mixing parameters from HPV epidemiologic data. Methods: We use an age-structured transmission model coupled with stochastic individual-based simulations to estimate the health and economic impact of routine nonavalent HPV vaccination for girls at age 12 on cervical cancer burden and consider vaccine uptake at 25%, 50%, and 75% with at least 20years of vaccine protection. Bayesian inference was employed to parameterize the model using local data on HPV prevalence and cervical cancer incidence. We use the human capital approach in the cost-benefit analysis (CBA) and GDP per capita as the indicative willingness-to-pay threshold in the cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA). Finally, we estimate the threshold vaccine cost (TVC), which is the maximum cost for fully vaccinating one girl at which routine female adolescent nonavalent HPV vaccination is cost-beneficial or cost-effective. Results: As vaccine uptake increased, TVC decreased (i.e., economically more stringent) in the CBA but increased in the CEA. When vaccine uptake was 75% and the vaccine provided only 20years of protection, the TVC was US$444 ($373-506) and $689 ($646-734) in the CBA and CEA, respectively, increasing by approximately 2-4% if vaccine protection was assumed lifelong. TVC is likely to be far higher when non-cervical diseases are included. The inferred sexual mixing parameters suggest that sexual mixing in Hong Kong is highly assortative by both age and sexual activity level. Conclusions: Routine HPV vaccination of 12-year-old females is highly likely to be cost-beneficial and cost-effective in Hong Kong. Inference of sexual mixing parameters from epidemiologic data of prevalent sexually transmitted diseases (i.e., HPV, chlamydia, etc.) is a potentially fruitful but largely untapped methodology for understanding sexual behaviors in the population.The equity impact vaccines may have on averting deaths and medical impoverishment in developing countries
AbstractChang, A. Y., Riumallo-Herl, C., Perales, N. A., Clark, S., Clark, A., Constenla, D., Garske, T., Jackson, M. L., Jean, K., Jit, M., Jones, E. O., Li, X., Suraratdecha, C., Bullock, O., Johnson, H., Brenzel, L., & Verguet, S. (n.d.).Publication year
2018Journal title
Health AffairsVolume
37Issue
2Page(s)
316-324AbstractWith social policies increasingly directed toward enhancing equity through health programs, it is important that methods for estimating the health and economic benefits of these programs by subpopulation be developed, to assess both equity concerns and the programs' total impact. We estimated the differential health impact (measured as the number of deaths averted) and household economic impact (measured as the number of cases of medical impoverishment averted) of ten antigens and their corresponding vaccines across income quintiles for forty-one low- and middle-income countries. Our analysis indicated that benefits across these vaccines would accrue predominantly in the lowest income quintiles. Policy makers should be informed about the large health and economic distributional impact that vaccines could have, and they should view vaccination policies as potentially important channels for improving health equity. Our results provide insight into the distribution of vaccine-preventable diseases and the health benefits associated with their prevention.The need for sustainability and alignment of future support for National Immunization Technical Advisory Groups (NITAGs) in low and middle-income countries
AbstractHoward, N., Bell, S., Walls, H., Blanchard, L., Brenzel, L., Jit, M., & Mounier-Jack, S. (n.d.).Publication year
2018Journal title
Human Vaccines and ImmunotherapeuticsVolume
14Issue
6Page(s)
1539-1541AbstractNational Immunisation Technical Advisory Groups (NITAGs) provide independent guidance to health ministries to support evidence-based and nationally relevant immunisation decisions. We examined NITAGs' value, sustainability, and need for support in low and middle-income countries, drawing from a mixed-methods study including 130 global and national-level key informant interviews. NITAGs were particularly valued for providing independent and nationally owned evidence-based decision-making (EBDM), but needed to be integrated within national processes to effectively balance independence and influence. Participants agreed that most NITAGs, being relatively new, would need developmental and strengthening support for at least a decade. While national governments could support NITAG functioning, external support is likely needed for requisite capacity building. This might come from Gavi mechanisms and WHO, but would require alignment among stakeholders to be effective.Thresholds for decision-making : Informing the cost-effectiveness and affordability of rotavirus vaccines in Malaysia
AbstractLoganathan, T., Ng, C. W., Lee, W. S., Hutubessy, R. C., Verguet, S., & Jit, M. (n.d.).Publication year
2018Journal title
Health Policy and PlanningVolume
33Issue
2Page(s)
204-214AbstractCost-effectiveness thresholds (CETs) based on the Commission on Macroeconomics and Health (CMH) are extensively used in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) lacking locally defined CETs. These thresholds were originally intended for global and regional prioritization, and do not reflect local context or affordability at the national level, so their value for informing resource allocation decisions has been questioned. Using these thresholds, rotavirus vaccines are widely regarded as cost-effective interventions in LMICs. However, high vaccine prices remain a barrier towards vaccine introduction. This study aims to evaluate the cost-effectiveness, affordability and threshold price of universal rotavirus vaccination at various CETs in Malaysia. Cost-effectiveness of Rotarix and RotaTeq were evaluated using a multi-cohort model. Pan American Health Organization Revolving Fund's vaccine prices were used as tender price, while the recommended retail price for Malaysia was used as market price. We estimate threshold prices defined as prices at which vaccination becomes cost-effective, at various CETs reflecting economic theories of human capital, societal willingness-to-pay and marginal productivity. A budget impact analysis compared programmatic costs with the healthcare budget. At tender prices, both vaccines were cost-saving. At market prices, cost-effectiveness differed with thresholds used. At market price, using 'CMH thresholds', Rotarix programmes were cost-effective and RotaTeq were not cost-effective from the healthcare provider's perspective, while both vaccines were cost-effective from the societal perspective. Using other CETs, both vaccines were not cost-effective at market price, from the healthcare provider's and societal perspectives. At tender and cost-effective prices, rotavirus vaccination cost 1 and 3% of the public health budget, respectively. Using locally defined thresholds, rotavirus vaccination is cost-effective at vaccine prices in line with international tenders, but not at market prices. Thresholds representing marginal productivity are likely to be lower than those reflecting human capital and individual preference measures, and may be useful in determining affordable vaccine prices.Toward economic evaluation of the value of vaccines and other health technologies in addressing AMR
AbstractSevilla, J. P., Bloom, D. E., Cadarette, D., Jit, M., & Lipsitch, M. (n.d.).Publication year
2018Journal title
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of AmericaVolume
115Issue
51Page(s)
12911-12919AbstractWe discuss the need to make economic evaluations of vaccines antimicrobial resistance (AMR)-sensitive and ways to do so. Such AMR-sensitive evaluations can play a role in value-for-money comparisons of different vaccines within a national immunization program, or in comparisons of vaccine-centric and nonvaccine-centric technologies within an anti-AMR program. In general terms, incremental cost-effectiveness ratios and rates of return and their associated decision rules are unaltered by consideration of AMR-related value. The decision metrics need to have their various health, cost, and socioeconomic terms disaggregated into resistance-related subcategories, which in turn have to be measured carefully before they are reaggregated. The fundamental scientific challenges lie primarily in quantifying the causal impact of health technologies on resistance-related health outcomes, and secondarily in ascertaining the economic value of those outcomes. We emphasize the importance of evaluating vaccines in the context of other potentially complementary and substitutable nonvaccine technologies. Complementarity implies that optimal spending on each set of interventions is positive, and substitutability implies that the ratio of spending will depend on relative value for money. We exemplify this general point through a qualitative discussion of the complementarities and (especially the) substitutability between pneumococcal conjugate vaccines and antimicrobial stewardship and between research and development (R&D) of a gonorrhea vaccine versus R&D of a gonorrhea antibiotic. We propose a roadmap for future work, which includes quantifying the causal effects of vaccination and other health technologies on short-term and long-term resistance-related outcomes, measuring the health-sector costs and broader socioeconomic consequences of resistance-related mortality and morbidity, and evaluating vaccines in the context of nonvaccine complements and substitutes.Understanding differences in cervical cancer incidence in Western Europe : Comparing Portugal and England
AbstractMendes, D., Mesher, D., Pista, A., Baguelin, M., & Jit, M. (n.d.).Publication year
2018Journal title
European Journal of Public HealthVolume
28Issue
2Page(s)
343-347AbstractBackground: Cervical cancer incidence has decreased over time in England particularly after the introduction of organized screening. In Portugal, where opportunistic screening has been widely available with only slightly lower coverage than that of the organized programme in England, rates of cervical cancer have been higher than in England. We compared the burden of cervical cancer, risk factors and preventive interventions over time in both countries, to identify elements hindering the further decline in incidence and mortality in Portugal. Methods: We used joinpoint regression to identify significant changes in rate time-trends. We also analyzed individual-level Portuguese data on sexual behaviour and human papillomavirus prevalence, and recent aggregate data on organized and opportunistic screening coverage. We compared published estimates of survival, risk factors and historical screening coverage for both countries. Results: Despite stable incidence, cervical cancer mortality has declined in both countries in the last decade. The burden has been 4 cases and 1 death per 100 000 women annually higher in Portugal than in England. Differences in human papillomavirus prevalence and risk factors for infection and disease progression do not explain the difference found in cervical cancer incidence. Significant mortality declines in both countries followed the introduction of different screening policies, although England showed a greater decline than Portugal over nearly 2 decades after centralizing organized screening. Conclusion: The higher rates of cervical cancer in Portugal compared to England can be explained by differences in screening quality and coverage.Use of mathematical modelling to assess the impact of vaccines on antibiotic resistance
AbstractAtkins, K. E., Lafferty, E. I., Deeny, S. R., Davies, N. G., Robotham, J. V., & Jit, M. (n.d.).Publication year
2018Journal title
The Lancet Infectious DiseasesVolume
18Issue
6Page(s)
e204-e213AbstractAntibiotic resistance is a major global threat to the provision of safe and effective health care. To control antibiotic resistance, vaccines have been proposed as an essential intervention, complementing improvements in diagnostic testing, antibiotic stewardship, and drug pipelines. The decision to introduce or amend vaccination programmes is routinely based on mathematical modelling. However, few mathematical models address the impact of vaccination on antibiotic resistance. We reviewed the literature using PubMed to identify all studies that used an original mathematical model to quantify the impact of a vaccine on antibiotic resistance transmission within a human population. We reviewed the models from the resulting studies in the context of a new framework to elucidate the pathways through which vaccination might impact antibiotic resistance. We identified eight mathematical modelling studies; the state of the literature highlighted important gaps in our understanding. Notably, studies are limited in the range of pathways represented, their geographical scope, and the vaccine–pathogen combinations assessed. Furthermore, to translate model predictions into public health decision making, more work is needed to understand how model structure and parameterisation affects model predictions and how to embed these predictions within economic frameworks.Burden of paediatric respiratory syncytial virus disease and potential effect of different immunisation strategies : a modelling and cost-effectiveness analysis for England
AbstractCromer, D., van Hoek, A. J., Newall, A. T., Pollard, A. J., & Jit, M. (n.d.).Publication year
2017Journal title
The Lancet Public HealthVolume
2Issue
8Page(s)
e367-e374AbstractBackground Vaccines and prophylactic antibodies against respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) are in development and likely to be available in the next 5–10 years. The most efficient way to use these products when they become available is an important consideration for public health decision makers. Methods We performed a multivariate regression analysis to estimate the burden of RSV in children younger than 5 years in England (UK), a representative high-income temperate country, and used these results to assess the potential effect of different RSV immunisation strategies (targeting vaccination for infants, or pregnant women, or prophylactic antibodies for neonates). We did a cost-effectiveness analysis for these strategies, implemented either separately or concurrently, and assessed the effect of restricting vaccination to certain months of the year. Findings We estimated that RSV is responsible for 12 primary care consultations (95% CI 11·9–12·1) and 0·9 admissions to hospital annually per 100 children younger than 5 years (95% CI 0·89–0·90), with the major burden occurring in infants younger than 6 months. The most cost-effective strategy was to selectively immunise all children born before the start of the RSV season (maximum price of £220 [95% uncertainty interval (UI) 208–232] per vaccine, for an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of £20 000 per quality-adjusted life-year). The maximum price per fully protected person that should be paid for the infant, newborn, and maternal strategies without seasonal restrictions was £192 (95% UI 168–219), £81 (76–86), and £54 (51–57), respectively. Interpretation Nearly double the number of primary care consultations, and nearly five times the number of admissions to hospital occurred with RSV compared with influenza. RSV vaccine and antibody strategies are likely to be cost-effective if they can be priced below around £200 per fully protected person. A seasonal vaccination strategy is likely to provide the most direct benefits. Herd effects might render a year-round infant vaccination strategy more appealing, although it is currently unclear whether such a programme would induce herd effects. Funding UK National Institute for Health Research.Burden, duration and costs of hospital bed closures due to acute gastroenteritis in England per winter, 2010/11–2015/16
AbstractSandmann, F. G., Jit, M., Robotham, J. V., Deeny, S. R., & Jit, M. (n.d.).Publication year
2017Journal title
Journal of Hospital InfectionVolume
97Issue
1Page(s)
79-85AbstractBackground Bed closures due to acute gastroenteritis put hospitals under pressure each winter. In England, the National Health Service (NHS) has monitored the winter situation for all acute trusts since 2010/11. Aim To estimate the burden, duration and costs of hospital bed closures due to acute gastroenteritis in winter. Methods A retrospective analysis of routinely collected time-series data of bed closures due to diarrhoea and vomiting was conducted for the winters 2010/11 to 2015/16. Two key issues were addressed by imputing non-randomly missing values at provider level, and filtering observations to a range of dates recorded in all six winters. The lowest and highest values imputed were taken to represent the best- and worst-case scenarios. Bed-days were costed using NHS reference costs, and potential staff absence costs were based on previous studies. Findings In the best-to-worst case, a median of 88,000–113,000 beds were closed due to gastroenteritis each winter. Of these, 19.6–20.4% were unoccupied. On average, 80% of providers were affected, and had closed beds for a median of 15–21 days each winter. Hospital costs of closed beds were £5.7–£7.5 million, which increased to £6.9–£10.0 million when including staff absence costs due to illness. Conclusions The median number of hospital beds closed due to acute gastroenteritis per winter was equivalent to all general and acute hospital beds in England being unavailable for a median of 0.88–1.12 days. Costs for hospitals are high but vary with closures each winter.Cervical cancer treatment costs and cost-effectiveness analysis of human papillomavirus vaccination in Vietnam : A PRIME modeling study
AbstractVan Minh, H., My, N. T., & Jit, M. (n.d.).Publication year
2017Journal title
BMC health services researchVolume
17Issue
1AbstractBackground: Cervical cancer is currently the leading cause of cancer mortality among women in South Vietnam and the second leading cause of cancer mortality in North Vietnam. Human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination has the potential to substantially decrease this burden. The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends that a cost-effectiveness analysis of HPV vaccination is conducted before nationwide introduction. Methods: The Papillomavirus Rapid Interface for Modeling and Economics (PRIME) model was used to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of HPV vaccine introduction. A costing study based on expert panel discussions, interviews and hospital case note reviews was conducted to explore the cost of cervical cancer care. Results: The cost of cervical cancer treatment ranged from US$368 - 11400 depending on the type of hospital and treatment involved. Under Gavi-negotiated prices of US$4.55, HPV vaccination is likely to be very cost-effective with an incremental cost per disability-adjusted life year (DALY) averted in the range US$780 - 1120. However, under list prices for Cervarix and Gardasil in Vietnam, the incremental cost per DALY averted for HPV vaccination can exceed US$8000. Conclusion: HPV vaccine introduction appears to be economically attractive only if Vietnam is able to procure the vaccine at Gavi prices. This highlights the importance of initiating a nationwide vaccination programme while such prices are still available.Characterizing measles transmission in India : A dynamic modeling study using verbal autopsy data
AbstractVerguet, S., Jones, E. O., Johri, M., Morris, S. K., Suraweera, W., Gauvreau, C. L., Jha, P., & Jit, M. (n.d.).Publication year
2017Journal title
BMC MedicineVolume
15Issue
1AbstractBackground: Decreasing trends in measles mortality have been reported in recent years. However, such estimates of measles mortality have depended heavily on assumed regional measles case fatality risks (CFRs) and made little use of mortality data from low- and middle-income countries in general and India, the country with the highest measles burden globally, in particular. Methods: We constructed a dynamic model of measles transmission in India with parameters that were empirically inferred using spectral analysis from a time series of measles mortality extracted from the Million Death Study, an ongoing longitudinal study recording deaths across 2.4 million Indian households and attributing causes of death using verbal autopsy. The model was then used to estimate the measles CFR, the number of measles deaths, and the impact of vaccination in 2000-2015 among under-five children in India and in the states of Bihar and Uttar Pradesh (UP), two states with large populations and the highest numbers of measles deaths in India. Results: We obtained the following estimated CFRs among under-five children for the year 2005: 0.63% (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.40-1.00%) for India as a whole, 0.62% (0.38-1.00%) for Bihar, and 1.19% (0.80-1.75%) for UP. During 2000-2015, we estimated that 607,000 (95% CI: 383,000-958,000) under-five deaths attributed to measles occurred in India as a whole. If no routine vaccination or supplemental immunization activities had occurred from 2000 to 2015, an additional 1.6 (1.0-2.6) million deaths for under-five children would have occurred across India. Conclusions: We developed a data- and model-driven estimation of the historical measles dynamics, CFR, and vaccination impact in India, extracting the periodicity of epidemics using spectral and coherence analysis, which allowed us to infer key parameters driving measles transmission dynamics and mortality.Chlamydia sequelae cost estimates used in current economic evaluations : Does one-size-fit-all?
AbstractOng, K. J., Soldan, K., Jit, M., Dunbar, J. K., & Woodhall, S. C. (n.d.).Publication year
2017Journal title
Sexually transmitted infectionsVolume
93Issue
1Page(s)
18-24AbstractBackground Current evidence suggests that chlamydia screening programmes can be cost-effective, conditional on assumptions within mathematical models. We explored differences in cost estimates used in published economic evaluations of chlamydia screening from seven countries (four papers each from UK and the Netherlands, two each from Sweden and Australia, and one each from Ireland, Canada and Denmark). Methods From these studies, we extracted management cost estimates for seven major chlamydia sequelae. In order to compare the influence of different sequelae considered in each paper and their corresponding management costs on the total cost per case of untreated chlamydia, we applied reported unit sequelae management costs considered in each paper to a set of untreated infection to sequela progression probabilities. All costs were adjusted to 2013/2014 Great British Pound (GBP) values. Results Sequelae management costs ranged from £171 to £3635 (pelvic inflammatory disease); £953 to £3615 (ectopic pregnancy); £546 to £6752 (tubal factor infertility); £159 to £3341 (chronic pelvic pain); £22 to £1008 (epididymitis); £11 to £1459 (neonatal conjunctivitis) and £433 to £3992 (neonatal pneumonia). Total cost of sequelae per case of untreated chlamydia ranged from £37 to £412. Conclusions There was substantial variation in cost per case of chlamydia sequelae used in published chlamydia screening economic evaluations, which likely arose from different assumptions about disease management pathways and the country perspectives taken. In light of this, when interpreting these studies, the reader should be satisfied that the cost estimates used sufficiently reflect the perspective taken and current disease management for their respective context.Cost-effectiveness of 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccination in Mongolia
AbstractSundaram, N., Chen, C., Yoong, J., Luvsan, M. E., Fox, K., Sarankhuu, A., La Vincente, S., & Jit, M. (n.d.).Publication year
2017Journal title
VaccineVolume
35Issue
7Page(s)
1055-1063AbstractObjective The Ministry of Health (MOH), Mongolia, is considering introducing 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) in its national immunization programme to prevent the burden of disease caused by Streptococcus pneumoniae. This study evaluates the cost-effectiveness and budget impact of introducing PCV13 compared to no PCV vaccination in Mongolia. Methods The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of introducing PCV13 compared to no PCV vaccination was assessed using an age-stratified static multiple cohort model. The risk of various clinical presentations of pneumococcal disease (meningitis, pneumonia, non-meningitis non-pneumonia invasive pneumococcal disease and acute otitis media) at all ages for thirty birth cohorts was assessed. The analysis considered both health system and societal perspectives. A 3 + 0 vaccine schedule and price of US$3.30 per dose was assumed for the baseline scenario based on Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance's advance market commitment tail price. Results The ICER of PCV13 introduction is estimated at US$52 per disability-adjusted life year (DALY) averted (health system perspective), and cost-saving (societal perspective). Although indirect effects of PCV have been well-documented, a conservative scenario that does not consider indirect effects estimated PCV13 introduction to cost US$79 per DALY averted (health system perspective), and US$19 per DALY averted (societal perspective). Vaccination with PCV13 is expected to cost around US$920,000 in 2016, and thereafter US$820,000 every year. The programme is likely to reduce direct disease-related costs to MOH by US$440,000 in the first year, increasing to US$510,000 by 2025. Conclusion Introducing PCV13 as part of Mongolia's national programme appears to be highly cost-effective when compared to no vaccination and cost-saving from a societal perspective at vaccine purchase prices offered through Gavi. Notwithstanding uncertainties around some parameters, cost-effectiveness of PCV introduction for Mongolia remains robust over a range of conservative scenarios. Availability of high-quality national data would improve future economic analyses for vaccine introduction.