Mark Jit
Mark Jit
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Chair and Professor of the Department of Global and Environmental Health
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Professional overview
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Mark Jit is the inaugural chair and a professor in the Department of Global and Environmental Health. He was formerly head of the Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology & Dynamics and co-director of the Global Health Economics Centre (GHECO) at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM). He holds honorary appointments at LSHTM as well as the University of Hong Kong (HKU) and the National University of Singapore (NUS).
Dr. Jit’s research focuses on epidemiological and economic modeling of vaccines to support evidence-based public health decision making. He has published papers covering a range of vaccine-preventable or potentially vaccine-preventable diseases including COVID-19, measles, HPV, pneumococcus, rotavirus, influenza, Group B Streptococcus, dengue, EV71 and RSV as well as methodological papers advancing the ways vaccines are evaluated. This work has influenced many of the major changes to immunization policy in countries around the world. Dr. Jit has served on a number of expert advisory committees in the UK as well as for international organizations such as the World Health Organization. He also organises or contributes to academic and professional courses on vaccine modeling, economics and decision science around the world.
Dr. Jit received his BSc and PhD in Mathematics from University College London, specializing in mathematical biology, and a Master of Public Health degree from King’s College London.
Visit Dr. Jit's Google Scholar's page to learn more about his research portfolio.
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Education
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BSc, Mathematics, University College LondonPhD, Mathematics, University College LondonMPH, Public Health, King's College London
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Honors and awards
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Clarivate Highly Cited Researcher (20222023)Fellow of the Academy of Medical Sciences (2023)Training Fund Award, Health Protection Agency (2007)Andrew Rosen Prize, University College London (1999)Institute of Mathematics and its Applications Award (1998)Departmental Research Studentship, University College London (1998)Student Union Commendation, University College London (1997)Fillon Prize, University College London (1996)Pathfinder Award, University College London (1995)
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Publications
Publications
Discounting in the evaluation of the cost-effectiveness of a vaccination programme: A critical review
AbstractJit, M., & Mibei, W. (n.d.).Publication year
2015Journal title
VaccineVolume
33Issue
32Page(s)
3788-3794AbstractDiscounting future costs and health benefits usually has a large effect on results of cost-effectiveness evaluations of vaccination because of delays between the initial expenditure in the programme and the health benefits from averting disease. Most guidelines currently recommend discounting both costs and health effects at a positive, constant, common rate back to a common point in time. A review of 84 published economic evaluations of vaccines found that most of them apply these recommendations. However, both technical and normative arguments have been presented for discounting health at a different rate to consumption (differential discounting), discounting at a rate that changes over time (non-constant discounting), discounting intra-generational and inter-generational effects at a different rate (two-stage discounting), and discounting the health gains from an intervention to a different discount year from the time of intervention (delayed discounting). These considerations are particularly acute for vaccines, because their effects can occur in a different generation from the one paying for them, and because the time of vaccination, of infection aversion, and of disease aversion usually differ. Using differential, two-stage or delayed discounting in model-based cost-effectiveness evaluations of vaccination raises technical challenges, but mechanisms have been proposed to overcome them.Estimating costs of care for meningitis infections in low- and middle-income countries
AbstractPortnoy, A., Jit, M., Lauer, J., Blommaert, A., Ozawa, S., Stack, M., Murray, J., & Hutubessy, R. (n.d.).Publication year
2015Journal title
VaccineVolume
33Page(s)
A240-A247AbstractMeningitis infections are often associated with high mortality and risk of sequelae. The costs of treatment and care for meningitis are a great burden on health care systems, particularly in resource-limited settings. The objective of this study is to review data on the costs of care for meningitis in low- and middle-income countries, as well as to show how results could be extrapolated to countries without sound data.We conducted a systematic review of the literature from six databases to identify studies examining the cost of care in low- and middle-income countries for all age groups with suspected, probable, or confirmed meningitis. We extracted data on treatment costs and sequelae by infectious agent and/or pathogen, where possible. Using multiple regression analysis, a relationship between hospital costs and associated determinants was investigated in order to predict costs in countries with missing data. This relationship was used to predict treatment costs for all 144 low- and middle-income countries.The methodology of conducting a systematic review, extrapolating, and setting up a standard database can be used as a tool to inform cost-effectiveness analyses in situations where cost of care data are poor. Both acute and long-term costs of meningitis could be extrapolated to countries without reliable data. Although only bacterial causes of meningitis can be vaccine-preventable, a better understanding of the treatment costs for meningitis is crucial for low- and middle-income countries to assess the cost-effectiveness of proposed interventions in their country. This cost information will be important as inputs in future cost-effectiveness studies, particularly for vaccines.Fewer than three doses of HPV vaccine
Jit, M., Laprise, J. F., Choi, Y. H., & Brisson, M. (n.d.). In The Lancet Oncology (1–).Publication year
2015Volume
16Issue
9Page(s)
e423-e424Household catastrophic healthcare expenditure and impoverishment due to rotavirus gastroenteritis requiring hospitalization in Malaysia
AbstractLoganathan, T., Lee, W. S., Lee, K. F., Jit, M., & Ng, C. W. (n.d.).Publication year
2015Journal title
PloS oneVolume
10Issue
5AbstractBackground: While healthcare costs for rotavirus gastroenteritis requiring hospitalization may be burdensome on households in Malaysia, exploration on the distribution and catastrophic impact of these expenses on households are lacking. Objectives: We assessed the economic burden, levels and distribution of catastrophic healthcare expenditure, the poverty impact on households and inequities related to healthcare payments for acute gastroenteritis requiring hospitalization in Malaysia. Methods: A two-year prospective, hospital-based study was conducted from 2008 to 2010 in an urban (Kuala Lumpur) and rural (Kuala Terengganu) setting in Malaysia. All children under the age of 5 years admitted for acute gastroenteritis were included. Patients were screened for rotavirus and information on healthcare expenditure was obtained. Results: Of the 658 stool samples collected at both centers, 248 (38%) were positive for rotavirus. Direct and indirect costs incurred were significantly higher in Kuala Lumpur compared with Kuala Terengganu (US$222 Vs. US$45; p[[amp]]lt;0.001). The mean direct and indirect costs for rotavirus gastroenteritis consisted 20% of monthly household income in Kuala Lumpur, ascompared with only 5% in Kuala Terengganu. Direct medical costs paid out-of-pocket caused 141 (33%) households in Kuala Lumpur to experience catastrophic expenditure and 11 (3%) households to incur poverty. However in Kuala Terengganu, only one household (0.5%) experienced catastrophic healthcare expenditure and none were impoverished. The lowest income quintile in Kuala Lumpur was more likely to experience catastrophic payments compared to the highest quintile (87% vs 8%). The concentration index for out-of-pocket healthcare payments was closer to zero at Kuala Lumpur (0.03) than at Kuala Terengganu (0.24). Conclusions: While urban households were wealthier, healthcare expenditure due to gastroenteritis had more catastrophic and poverty impact on the urban poor. Universal rotavirus vaccination would reduce both disease burden and health inequities in Malaysia.Human papillomavirus DNA in men who have sex with men: Type-specific prevalence, risk factors and implications for vaccination strategies
AbstractKing, E. M., Gilson, R., Beddows, S., Soldan, K., Panwar, K., Young, C., Prah, P., Jit, M., Edmunds, W. J., & Sonnenberg, P. (n.d.).Publication year
2015Journal title
British Journal of CancerVolume
112Issue
9Page(s)
1585-1593AbstractBackground:Human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination of girls will have relatively little effect on HPV-related disease in men who have sex with men (MSM). We determined HPV prevalence and risk factors in MSM to inform the potential effectiveness of vaccinating MSM.Methods:Cross-sectional study of 522 MSM aged 18-40 attending a London sexual health clinic who completed a computer-assisted self-interview. Urine and two swabs (anal and penile/scrotal/perianal) were collected and tested using an in-house Luminex-based HPV genotyping system.Results:Prevalence of DNA of the vaccine-preventable HPV types in ano-genital specimens of men was 87/511 (17.0%), 166/511 (32.5%) and 232/511 (45.4%) for the bivalent (HPV16/18), quadrivalent (HPV6/11/16/18) and nonavalent (HPV6/11/16/18/31/33/45/52/58) vaccine types, respectively. A total of 25.1% had one of the quadrivalent types, and 7.4% had 2+ types. Median age at first anal sex was 19 (IQR 17-23) and at first clinic attendance was 24 (IQR 20-27). The increase in the odds of any HPV infection per year of age was 4.7% (95% CI 1.2-8.4).Conclusions:On the basis of the current infection status, most MSM, even among a high-risk population attending a sexual health clinic, are not currently infected with the vaccine-type HPV. A targeted vaccination strategy for MSM in the UK could have substantial benefits.Oral human papillomavirus (HPV) infection in men who have sex with men: Prevalence and lack of anogenital concordance
AbstractKing, E. M., Gilson, R., Beddows, S., Soldan, K., Panwar, K., Young, C., Jit, M., Edmunds, W. J., & Sonnenberg, P. (n.d.).Publication year
2015Journal title
Sexually transmitted infectionsVolume
91Issue
4Page(s)
284-286AbstractObjectives To estimate the prevalence of oral detectable human papillomavirus (HPV) DNA in HIVnegative men who have sex with men (MSM) attending a sexual health clinic in London and concordance with anogenital HPV infection. Such data are important to improve our understanding of the epidemiology of oral HPV and the potential use of vaccines to prevent oropharyngeal cancers. Methods Paired oral rinse samples and anogenital samples were available from 151 HIV-negative MSM within a larger cross-sectional survey. All samples were tested in parallel for 21 types of HPV DNA using an inhouse assay. Results The median age of participants was 30 (IQR 2535). The prevalence of any oral HPV and of high-risk HPV (HR-HPV) was 13.7% (n=21; 95% CI 8.7 to 20.2) and 5.9% (n=9; 95% CI 2.7 to 10.9) compared with 64.9% (n=98; 95% CI 56.7 to 72.5) and 34.4% (n=52; 95% CI 26.9 to 42.6) in any anogenital sample, respectively. The prevalence of types prevented by the bivalent (HPV16/18), quadrivalent (HPV6/11/16/18) and nonavalent (HPV6/11/16/18/31/33/45/52/58) vaccines was 1.3% (95% CI 0.2 to 4.7), 2.6% (95% CI 0.7 to 6.6) and 4.6% (95% CI 1.9 to 9.3), respectively. There was no concordance between HPV genotypes detected in oral and anogenital sites. Conclusions HR-HPV DNA, including HPV 16/18, was detected in oral specimens from HIV-negative MSM attending sexual health clinics, suggesting a potential role for vaccination, but is far less common than anogenital infection. How this relates to the risk and natural history of HPV-related head and neck cancers warrants further study. Lack of concordance with anogenital infection also suggests that oral HPV infection should be considered separately when estimating potential vaccine impact.Quantifying Parameter and Structural Uncertainty of Dynamic Disease Transmission Models Using MCMC: An Application to Rotavirus Vaccination in England and Wales
AbstractBilcke, J., Chapman, R., Atchison, C., Cromer, D., Johnson, H., Willem, L., Cox, M., Edmunds, W. J., & Jit, M. (n.d.).Publication year
2015Journal title
Medical Decision MakingVolume
35Issue
5Page(s)
633-647AbstractBackground. Two vaccines (Rotarix and RotaTeq) are highly effective at preventing severe rotavirus disease. Rotavirus vaccination has been introduced in the United Kingdom and other countries partly based on modeling and cost-effectiveness results. However, most of these models fail to account for the uncertainty about several vaccine characteristics and the mechanism of vaccine action. Methods. A deterministic dynamic transmission model of rotavirus vaccination in the United Kingdom was developed. This improves on previous models by 1) allowing for 2 different mechanisms of action for Rotarix and RotaTeq, 2) using clinical trial data to understand these mechanisms, and 3) accounting for uncertainty by using Markov Chain Monte Carlo. Results. In the long run, Rotarix and RotaTeq are predicted to reduce the overall rotavirus incidence by 50% (39%-63%) and 44% (30%-62%), respectively but with an increase in incidence in primary school children and adults up to 25 y of age. The vaccines are estimated to give more protection than 1 or 2 natural infections. The duration of protection is highly uncertain but has only impact on the predicted reduction in rotavirus burden for values lower than 10 y. The 2 vaccine mechanism structures fit equally well with the clinical trial data. Long-term postvaccination dynamics cannot be predicted reliably with the data available. Conclusion. Accounting for the joint uncertainty of several vaccine characteristics resulted in more insight into which of these are crucial for determining the impact of rotavirus vaccination. Data for up to at least 10 y postvaccination and covering older children and adults are crucial to address remaining questions on the impact of widespread rotavirus vaccination.Stakeholders' perception on including broader economic impact of vaccines in economic evaluations in low and middle income countries: A mixed methods study
AbstractVan Der Putten, I. M., Evers, S. M., Deogaonkar, R., Jit, M., & Hutubessy, R. C. (n.d.).Publication year
2015Journal title
BMC public healthVolume
15Issue
1AbstractBackground: Current health economic evaluation guidelines mainly concentrate on immediate health gains and cost savings for the individual involved in the intervention. However, it has been argued that these guidelines are too narrow to capture the full impact of vaccination in low and middle income countries. The inclusion of broader economic impact of vaccines (BEIV) has therefore been proposed. Some examples of these are productivity-related gains, macro-economic impact, and different externalities. Despite their potency, the extent to which such benefits can and should be incorporated into economic evaluations of vaccination is still unclear. This mixed methods study aims to assess the relevance of BEIV to different stakeholders involved in the vaccine introduction decision making process. Methods: In this mixed method study an internet based survey was sent to attendees of the New and Underutilized Vaccines Initiative meeting in Montreux, Switzerland in 2011. Additionally, semi-structured interviews of 15 minutes each were conducted during the meeting. Study participants included decision makers, experts and funders of vaccines and immunization programs in low and middle income countries. Descriptive analysis of the survey, along with identification of common themes and factors extracted from the interviews and open survey questions was undertaken. Results: Evidence on macro-economic impact, burden of disease and ecological effects were perceived as being most valuable towards aiding decision making for vaccine introduction by the 26 survey respondents. The 14 interviewees highlighted the importance of burden of disease and different types of indirect effects. Furthermore, some new interpretations of BEIVs were discussed, such as the potential negative impact of wastage during immunization programs and the idea of using vaccines as a platform for delivering other types of health interventions. Interviewees also highlighted the importance of using a broader perspective in connection to measuring economic impacts, particularly when attempting to derive the value of newer, more expensive vaccines. Conclusion: According to participants, BEIVs were seen as being equally important as traditional outcome measures used in cost-effectiveness analyses. Such insight can be used to shape research agendas within this field and to eventually create broader, more inclusive practical guidelines for economic evaluations of vaccines.Systematic review of economic evaluations of vaccination programs in mainland China: Are they sufficient to inform decision making?
AbstractPan, X. F., Griffiths, U. K., Pennington, M., Yu, H., & Jit, M. (n.d.).Publication year
2015Journal title
VaccineVolume
33Issue
46Page(s)
6164-6172AbstractThe purpose of the study was to systematically review economic evaluations of vaccine programs conducted in mainland China. We searched for economic evaluations of vaccination in China published prior to August 3, 2015 in eight English-language and three Chinese-language databases. Each article was appraised against the 19-item Consensus on Health Economic Criteria list (CHEC-list). We found 23 papers evaluating vaccines against hepatitis B (8 articles), Streptococcus pneumoniae (5 articles), human papillomavirus (3 articles), Japanese encephalitis (2 articles), rotavirus (2 articles), hepatitis A (1 article), Enterovirus 71 (1 article) and influenza (1 article). Studies conformed to a mean of 12 (range: 6-18) items in the CHEC-list criteria. Five of six Chinese-language articles conformed to fewer than half of the 19 criteria items. The main criteria that studies failed to conform to included: inappropriate measurement (20 articles) and valuation (18 articles) of treatment and/or vaccination costs, no discussion about distributional implications (18 articles), missing major health outcomes (14 articles), no discussion about generalizability to other contexts (14 articles), and inadequate sensitivity analysis (13 articles). In addition, ten studies did not include major cost components of vaccination programs, and nine did not report outcomes in terms of life years even in cases where QALYs or DALYs were calculated. Only 13 studies adopted a societal perspective for analysis. All studies concluded that the appraised vaccination programs were cost-effective except for one evaluation of universal 7-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV-7) in children. However, three of the five studies on PCV-7 showed poor overall quality, and the number of studies on vaccines other than hepatitis B vaccine and PCV-7 was limited. In conclusion, major methodological flaws and reporting problems exist in current economic evaluations of vaccination programs in China. Local guidelines for good practice and reporting, institutional mechanisms and education may help to improve the overall quality of these evaluations.Systematic review of model-based cervical screening evaluations
AbstractMendes, D., Bains, I., Vanni, T., & Jit, M. (n.d.).Publication year
2015Journal title
BMC CancerVolume
15Issue
1AbstractBackground: Optimising population-based cervical screening policies is becoming more complex due to the expanding range of screening technologies available and the interplay with vaccine-induced changes in epidemiology. Mathematical models are increasingly being applied to assess the impact of cervical cancer screening strategies. Methods: We systematically reviewed MEDLINE®, Embase, Web of Science®, EconLit, Health Economic Evaluation Database, and The Cochrane Library databases in order to identify the mathematical models of human papillomavirus (HPV) infection and cervical cancer progression used to assess the effectiveness and/or cost-effectiveness of cervical cancer screening strategies. Key model features and conclusions relevant to decision-making were extracted. Results: We found 153 articles meeting our eligibility criteria published up to May 2013. Most studies (72/153) evaluated the introduction of a new screening technology, with particular focus on the comparison of HPV DNA testing and cytology (n = 58). Twenty-eight in forty of these analyses supported HPV DNA primary screening implementation. A few studies analysed more recent technologies - rapid HPV DNA testing (n = 3), HPV DNA self-sampling (n = 4), and genotyping (n = 1) - and were also supportive of their introduction. However, no study was found on emerging molecular markers and their potential utility in future screening programmes. Most evaluations (113/153) were based on models simulating aggregate groups of women at risk of cervical cancer over time without accounting for HPV infection transmission. Calibration to country-specific outcome data is becoming more common, but has not yet become standard practice. Conclusions: Models of cervical screening are increasingly used, and allow extrapolation of trial data to project the population-level health and economic impact of different screening policy. However, post-vaccination analyses have rarely incorporated transmission dynamics. Model calibration to country-specific data is increasingly common in recent studies.Systematic review, meta-analysis and economic modelling of molecular diagnostic tests for antibiotic resistance in tuberculosis
AbstractDrobniewski, F., Cooke, M., Jordan, J., Casali, N., Mugwagwa, T., Broda, A., Townsend, C., Sivaramakrishnan, A., Green, N., Jit, M., Lipman, M., Lord, J., White, P. J., & Abubakar, I. (n.d.).Publication year
2015Journal title
Health Technology AssessmentVolume
19Issue
34Page(s)
1-188AbstractBackground: Drug-resistant tuberculosis (TB), especially multidrug-resistant (MDR, resistance to rifampicin and isoniazid) disease, is associated with a worse patient outcome. Drug resistance diagnosed using microbiological culture takes days to weeks, as TB bacteria grow slowly. Rapid molecular tests for drug resistance detection (1 day) are commercially available and may promote faster initiation of appropriate treatment. Objectives: To (1) conduct a systematic review of evidence regarding diagnostic accuracy of molecular genetic tests for drug resistance, (2) conduct a health-economic evaluation of screening and diagnostic strategies, including comparison of alternative models of service provision and assessment of the value of targeting rapid testing at high-risk subgroups, and (3) construct a transmission-dynamic mathematical model that translates the estimates of diagnostic accuracy into estimates of clinical impact. Review methods and data sources: A standardised search strategy identified relevant studies from EMBASE, PubMed, MEDLINE, Bioscience Information Service (BIOSIS), System for Information on Grey Literature in Europe Social Policy & Practice (SIGLE) and Web of Science, published between 1 January 2000 and 15 August 2013. Additional ‘grey’ sources were included. Quality was assessed using quality assessment of diagnostic accuracy studies version 2 (QUADAS-2). For each diagnostic strategy and population subgroup, a care pathway was constructed to specify which medical treatments and health services that individuals would receive from presentation to the point where they either did or did not complete TB treatment successfully. A total cost was estimated from a health service perspective for each care pathway, and the health impact was estimated in terms of the mean discounted quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) lost as a result of disease and treatment. Costs and QALYs were both discounted at 3.5% per year. An integrated transmission-dynamic and economic model was used to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of introducing rapid molecular testing (in addition to culture and drug sensitivity testing). Probabilistic sensitivity analysis was performed to evaluate the impact on cost-effectiveness of diagnostic and treatment time delays, diagnosis and treatment costs, and associated QALYs. Results: A total of 8922 titles and abstracts were identified, with 557 papers being potentially eligible. Of these, 56 studies contained sufficient test information for analysis. All three commercial tests performed well when detecting drug resistance in clinical samples, although with evidence of heterogeneity between studies. Pooled sensitivity for GenoType® MTBDRplus (Hain Lifescience, Nehren, Germany) (isoniazid and rifampicin resistance), INNO-LiPA Rif.TB® (Fujirebio Europe, Ghent, Belgium) (rifampicin resistance) and Xpert®MTB/RIF (Cepheid Inc., Sunnyvale, CA, USA) (rifampicin resistance) was 83.4%, 94.6%, 95.4% and 96.8%, respectively; equivalent pooled specificity was 99.6%, 98.2%, 99.7% and 98.4%, respectively. Results of the transmission model suggest that all of the rapid assays considered here, if added to the current diagnostic pathway, would be cost-saving and achieve a reduction in expected QALY loss compared with current practice. GenoType MTBDRplus appeared to be the most cost-effective of the rapid tests in the South Asian population, although results were similar for GeneXpert. In all other scenarios GeneXpert appeared to be the most cost-effective strategy. Conclusions: Rapid molecular tests for rifampicin and isoniazid resistance were sensitive and specific. They may also be cost-effective when added to culture drug susceptibility testing in the UK. There is global interest in point-of-care testing and further work is needed to review the performance of emerging tests and the wider health-economic impact of decentralised testing in clinics and primary care, as well as non-health-care settings, such as shelters and prisons.Targeted vaccination in healthy school children - Can primary school vaccination alone control influenza?
AbstractThorrington, D., Jit, M., & Eames, K. (n.d.).Publication year
2015Journal title
VaccineVolume
33Issue
41Page(s)
5415-5424AbstractBackground: The UK commenced an extension to the seasonal influenza vaccination policy in autumn 2014 that will eventually see all healthy children between the ages of 2-16 years offered annual influenza vaccination. Models suggest that the new policy will be both highly effective at reducing the burden of influenza as well as cost-effective. We explore whether targeting vaccination at either primary or secondary schools would be more effective and/or cost-effective than the current strategy. Methods: An age-structured deterministic transmission dynamic SEIR-type mathematical model was used to simulate a national influenza outbreak in England. Costs including GP consultations, hospitalisations due to influenza and vaccinations were compared to potential gains in quality-adjusted life years achieved through vaccinating healthy children. Costs and benefits of the new JCVI vaccination policy were estimated over a single season, and compared to the hypothesised new policies of targeted and heterogeneous vaccination. Findings and conclusion: All potential vaccination policies were highly cost-effective. Influenza transmission can be eliminated for a particular season by vaccinating both primary and secondary school children, but not by vaccinating only one group. The most cost-effective policy overall is heterogeneous vaccination coverage with 48% uptake in primary schools and 34% in secondary schools. The Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation can consider a modification to their policy of offering seasonal influenza vaccinations to all healthy children of ages 2-16 years.The broader economic impact of vaccination: Reviewing and appraising the strength of evidence
AbstractJit, M., Hutubessy, R., Png, M. E., Sundaram, N., Audimulam, J., Salim, S., & Yoong, J. (n.d.).Publication year
2015Journal title
BMC MedicineVolume
13Issue
1AbstractBackground: Microeconomic evaluations of public health programmes such as immunisation typically only consider direct health benefits and medical cost savings. Broader economic benefits around childhood development, household behaviour, and macro-economic indicators are increasingly important, but the evidence linking immunization to such benefits is unclear. Methods: A conceptual framework of pathways between immunisation and its proposed broader economic benefits was developed through expert consultation. Relevant articles were obtained from previous reviews, snowballing, and expert consultation. Articles were associated with one of the pathways and quality assessed using modified Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE) criteria. Results: We found 20 studies directly relevant to one or more pathways. Evidence of moderate quality from experimental and observational studies was found for benefits due to immunisation in improved childhood physical development, educational outcomes, and equity in distribution of health gains. Only modelling evidence or evidence outside the immunization field supports extrapolating these benefits to household economic behaviour and macro-economic indicators. Conclusion: Innovative use of experimental and observational study designs is needed to fill evidence gaps around key pathways between immunisation and many of its proposed economic benefits.The economic burden of influenza-associated outpatient visits and hospitalizations in China: A retrospective survey
AbstractYang, J., Jit, M., Leung, K. S., Zheng, Y. M., Feng, L. Z., Wang, L. P., Lau, E. H., Wu, J. T., & Yu, H. J. (n.d.).Publication year
2015Journal title
Infectious Diseases of PovertyVolume
4Issue
1AbstractBackground: The seasonal influenza vaccine coverage rate in China is only 1.9 %. There is no information available on the economic burden of influenza-associated outpatient visits and hospitalizations at the national level, even though this kind of information is important for informing national-level immunization policy decision-making. Methods: A retrospective telephone survey was conducted in 2013/14 to estimate the direct and indirect costs of seasonal influenza-associated outpatient visits and hospitalizations from a societal perspective. Study participants were laboratory-confirmed cases registered in the National Influenza-like Illness Surveillance Network and Severe Acute Respiratory Infections Sentinel Surveillance Network in China in 2013. Patient-reported costs from the survey were validated by a review of hospital accounts for a small sample of the inpatients. Results: The study enrolled 529 outpatients (median age: eight years; interquartile range [IQR]: five to 20 years) and 254 inpatients (median age: four years; IQR: two to seven years). Among the outpatients, 22.1 % (117/529) had underlying diseases and among the inpatients, 52.8 % (134/254) had underlying diseases. The average total costs related to influenza-associated outpatient visits and inpatient visits were US$ 155 (standard deviation, SD US$ 122) and US$ 1,511 (SD US$ 1,465), respectively. Direct medical costs accounted for 45 and 69 % of the total costs related to influenza-associated outpatient and inpatient visits, respectively. For influenza outpatients, the mean cost per episode in children aged below five years (US$ 196) was higher than that in other age groups (US$ 129-153). For influenza inpatients, the mean cost per episode in adults aged over 60 years (US$ 2,735) was much higher than that in those aged below 60 years (US$ 1,417-1,621). Patients with underlying medical conditions had higher costs per episode than patients without underlying medical conditions (outpatients: US$ 186 vs. US$ 146; inpatients: US$ 1,800 vs. US$ 1,189). In the baseline analysis, inpatients reported costs were 18 % higher than those found in the accounts review (n = 38). Conclusion: The economic burden of influenza-associated outpatient and inpatient visits in China is substantial, particularly for young children, the elderly, and patients with underlying medical conditions. More widespread influenza vaccination would likely alleviate the economic burden of patients. The actual impact and cost-effectiveness analysis of the influenza immunization program in China merits further investigation.Thirty years of vaccination in vietnam: Impact and cost-effectiveness of the national expanded programme on immunization
AbstractJit, M., Huyen, D. T. T., Friberg, I., Van Minh, H., Kiet, P. H. T., Walker, N., Van Cuong, N., Duong, T. N., Toda, K., Hutubessy, R., Fox, K., & Hien, N. T. (n.d.).Publication year
2015Journal title
VaccineVolume
33Page(s)
A233-A239AbstractIntroduction: Countries like Vietnam transitioning to middle-income status increasingly bear the cost of both existing and new vaccines. However, the impact and cost-effectiveness of the Expanded Programme on Immunization (EPI) as a whole has never been assessed on a country level. Methods: Data on vaccine-preventable disease incidence and mortality from Vietnam's national surveillance was analysed to estimate the likely impact that vaccination in 1980-2010 may have had. Adjustment for under-reporting was made by examining trends in reported mumps incidence and in case-fatality risks for each disease. The same data were separately analysed using the Lives Saved Tool (LiST) to give an alternative estimate of impact. The financial cost of EPI in 1996-2010 was also estimated from the perspective of service provider. Results: National surveillance data suggests that up to 5.7 million diseases cases and 26,000 deaths may have been prevented by EPI. Analysis using LiST suggests that even more deaths (370,000) may have been prevented by measles and pertussis vaccination alone. The cost-effectiveness of EPI is estimated to be around $1000-$27,000 per death prevented. Conclusion: Two separate approaches to assessing EPI impact in Vietnam give different quantitative results but a common conclusion: that EPI has made a substantial impact on mortality and represents good value for money.What makes an eLife paper in epidemiology and global health?
Jit, M., Franco, E., & Jha, P. (n.d.).Publication year
2015Journal title
eLifeVolume
4Authors’ Reply to Gandjour: “Are Current Cost-Effectiveness Thresholds for Low- and Middle-Income Countries Useful? Examples from the World of Vaccines”
Newall, A. T., Jit, M., & Hutubessy, R. (n.d.). In PharmacoEconomics (1–).Publication year
2014Volume
32Issue
12Page(s)
1247Comparing the cost-effectiveness of two- and three-dose schedules of human papillomavirus vaccination: A transmission-dynamic modelling study
AbstractLaprise, J. F., Drolet, M., Boily, M. C., Jit, M., Sauvageau, C., Franco, E. L., Lemieux-Mellouki, P., Malagón, T., & Brisson, M. (n.d.).Publication year
2014Journal title
VaccineVolume
32Issue
44Page(s)
5845-5853AbstractBackground: Recent evidence suggests that two doses of HPV vaccines may be as protective as three doses in the short-term. We estimated the incremental cost-effectiveness of two- and three-dose schedules of girls-only and girls & boys HPV vaccination programmes in Canada. Methods: We used HPV-ADVISE, an individual-based transmission-dynamic model of multi-type HPV infection and diseases (anogenital warts, and cancers of the cervix, vulva, vagina, anus, penis and oropharynx). We conducted the analysis from the health payer perspective, with a 70-year time horizon and 3% discount rate, and performed extensive sensitivity analyses, including duration of vaccine protection and vaccine cost. Findings: Assuming 80% coverage and a vaccine cost per dose of $85, two-dose girls-only vaccination (vs. no vaccination) produced cost/quality-adjusted life-year (QALY)-gained varying between $7900-24,300. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of giving the third dose to girls (vs. two doses) was below $40,000/QALY-gained when: (i) three doses provide longer protection than two doses and (ii) two-dose protection was shorter than 30 years. Vaccinating boys (with two or three doses) was not cost-effective (vs. girls-only vaccination) under most scenarios investigated. Interpretation: Two-dose HPV vaccination is likely to be cost-effective if its duration of protection is at least 10 years. A third dose of HPV vaccine is unlikely to be cost-effective if two-dose duration of protection is longer than 30 years. Finally, two-dose girls & boys HPV vaccination is unlikely to be cost-effective unless the cost per dose for boys is substantially lower than the cost for girls.Cost-effectiveness of female human papillomavirus vaccination in 179 countries: A PRIME modelling study
AbstractJit, M., Brisson, M., Portnoy, A., & Hutubessy, R. (n.d.).Publication year
2014Journal title
The Lancet Global HealthVolume
2Issue
7Page(s)
e406-e414AbstractBackground: Introduction of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination in settings with the highest burden of HPV is not universal, partly because of the absence of quantitative estimates of country-specific effects on health and economic costs. We aimed to develop and validate a simple generic model of such effects that could be used and understood in a range of settings with little external support. Methods: We developed the Papillomavirus Rapid Interface for Modelling and Economics (PRIME) model to assess cost-effectiveness and health effects of vaccination of girls against HPV before sexual debut in terms of burden of cervical cancer and mortality. PRIME models incidence according to proposed vaccine efficacy against HPV 16/18, vaccine coverage, cervical cancer incidence and mortality, and HPV type distribution. It assumes lifelong vaccine protection and no changes to other screening programmes or vaccine uptake. We validated PRIME against existing reports of HPV vaccination cost-effectiveness, projected outcomes for 179 countries (assuming full vaccination of 12-year-old girls), and outcomes for 71 phase 2 GAVI-eligible countries (using vaccine uptake data from the GAVI Alliance). We assessed differences between countries in terms of cost-effectiveness and health effects. Findings: In validation, PRIME reproduced cost-effectiveness conclusions for 24 of 26 countries from 17 published studies, and for all 72 countries in a published study of GAVI-eligible countries. Vaccination of a cohort of 58 million 12-year-old girls in 179 countries prevented 690 000 cases of cervical cancer and 420 000 deaths during their lifetime (mostly in low-income or middle-income countries), at a net cost of US$4 billion. HPV vaccination was very cost effective (with every disability-adjusted life-year averted costing less than the gross domestic product per head) in 156 (87%) of 179 countries. Introduction of the vaccine in countries without national HPV vaccination at present would prevent substantially more cases of cervical cancer than in countries with such programmes, although the disparity has narrowed since 2012. If 71 phase 2 GAVI-eligible countries adopt vaccination according to forecasts, then in 2070 GAVI Alliance-funded vaccination could prevent 200 000 cases of cervical cancer and 100 000 deaths in some of the highest-burden countries. Interpretation: Large between-country disparities exist for HPV vaccination, with countries with the most to gain yet to introduce national HPV vaccination. Support from the GAVI Alliance could help to reduce such disparities, but a substantial burden will remain even after presently projected vaccine introductions. Funding: WHO.Evaluating the potential risks and benefits of infant rotavirus vaccination in England
AbstractClark, A., Jit, M., Andrews, N., Atchison, C., Edmunds, W. J., & Sanderson, C. (n.d.).Publication year
2014Journal title
VaccineVolume
32Issue
29Page(s)
3604-3610AbstractRotarix®, a vaccine for the prevention of gastroenteritis in young children, was introduced in England in July 2013. At around this time, an elevated risk of intussusception (a cause of bowel obstruction) was reported among infants vaccinated in Australia and the USA. A risk-benefit analysis compared potential vaccine-related risks (additional intussusception admissions and deaths) with estimated vaccine benefits (prevented rotavirus general practitioner visits, emergency visits, admissions and deaths) in the 2012 birth cohort. Detailed data from England included the incidence of intussusception events aged <2 years by week of age, the coverage of vaccination aged <2 years by week of age, and the incidence of rotavirus gastroenteritis (RVGE) events aged <5 years by week of age. Recent estimates of vaccine-related risk from Australia were applied during the 1-21 day period after the first and second dose of vaccination. Rotarix® is estimated to cause one additional intussusception admission in every 18,551 vaccinated English infants (5th and 95th percentiles, 6728-93,952), equivalent to 35 (7-98) additional intussusception admissions each year. The vaccine is estimated to prevent three rotavirus deaths, 13,000 rotavirus admissions, 27,000 rotavirus emergency visits and 74,000 rotavirus GP consultations in children aged <5 years, and lead to annual savings of over £11 million, each year. We estimate 375 (136-1900) fewer RVGE admissions for every additional intussusception admission, and 88 (18-852) fewer RVGE deaths for every additional intussusception death. The estimated benefits of Rotarix® vaccination would greatly exceed the potential risk in England.Excess length of stay and mortality due to Clostridium difficile infection: A multi-state modelling approach
AbstractVan Kleef, E., Green, N., Goldenberg, S. D., Robotham, J. V., Cookson, B., Jit, M., Edmunds, W. J., & Deeny, S. R. (n.d.).Publication year
2014Journal title
Journal of Hospital InfectionVolume
88Issue
4Page(s)
213-217AbstractThe burden of healthcare-associated infections, such as healthcare-acquired Clostridium difficile (HA-CDI), can be expressed in terms of additional length of stay (LOS) and mortality. However, previous estimates have varied widely. Although some have considered time of infection onset (time-dependent bias), none considered the impact of severity of HA-CDI; this was the primary aim of this study. Methods: The daily risk of in-hospital death or discharge was modelled using a Cox proportional hazards model, fitted to data on patients discharged in 2012 from a large English teaching hospital. We treated HA-CDI status as a time-dependent variable and adjusted for confounders. In addition, a multi-state model was developed to provide a clinically intuitive metric of delayed discharge associated with non-severe and severe HA-CDI respectively. Findings: Data comprised 157 (including 48 severe) HA-CDI cases among 42,618 patients. HA-CDI reduced the daily discharge rate by nearly one-quarter [hazard ratio (HR): 0.72; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.61-0.84] and increased the in-hospital death rate by 75% compared with non-HA-CDI patients (HR: 1.75; 95% CI: 1.16-2.62). Whereas overall HA-CDI resulted in a mean excess LOS of about seven days (95% CI: 3.5-10.9), severe cases had an average excess LOS which was twice (~11.6 days; 95% CI: 3.6-19.6) that of the non-severe cases (about five days; 95% CI: 1.1-9.5). Conclusion: HA-CDI contributes to patients' expected LOS and risk of mortality. However, when quantifying the health and economic burden of hospital-onset of HA-CDI, the heterogeneity in the impact of HA-CDI should be accounted for.Key issues and challenges in estimating the impact and cost-effectiveness of quadrivalent influenza vaccination
AbstractQuinn, E., Jit, M., & Newall, A. T. (n.d.).Publication year
2014Journal title
Expert Review of Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes ResearchVolume
14Issue
3Page(s)
425-435AbstractEvidence has shown that quadrivalent influenza vaccines containing all four subtypes are safe and immunogenic. However, to date there have been few published studies exploring the population-level clinical and economic impact of quadrivalent compared to trivalent influenza vaccines. Economic evaluation studies need to be conducted in order to inform country-level decision making about whether (and how to) introduce and replace the current trivalent influenza vaccines with quadrivalent influenza vaccination programs. Several key issues associated with estimating the clinical and economic impact of the trivalent versus quadrivalent vaccines are discussed in this article, particularly the complexities involved in estimating the incremental preventable disease and economic burden. Other factors, such as the indirect (herd) protection from quadrivalent influenza vaccination and the timing of the replacement of trivalent influenza vaccination programs are also discussed.Nosocomial transmission of c. difficile in English hospitals from patients with symptomatic infection
AbstractVan Kleef, E., Gasparrini, A., Guy, R., Cookson, B., Hope, R., Jit, M., Robotham, J. V., Deeny, S. R., & Edmunds, W. J. (n.d.).Publication year
2014Journal title
PloS oneVolume
9Issue
6AbstractBackground: Recent evidence suggests that less than one-quarter of patients with symptomatic nosocomial Clostridium difficile infections (CDI) are linked to other in-patients. However, this evidence was limited to one geographic area. We aimed to investigate the level of symptomatic CDI transmission in hospitals located across England from 2008 to 2012. Methods: A generalized additive mixed-effects Poisson model was fitted to English hospital-surveillance data. After adjusting for seasonal fluctuations and between-hospital variation in reported CDI over time, possible clustering (transmission between symptomatic in-patients) of CDI cases was identified. We hypothesised that a temporal proximity would be reflected in the degree of correlation between in-hospital CDI cases per week. This correlation was modelled through a latent autoregressive structure of order 1 (AR(1)). Findings: Forty-six hospitals (33 general, seven specialist, and six teaching hospitals) located in all English regions met our criteria. In total, 12,717 CDI cases were identified; seventy-five per cent of these occurred >48 hours after admission. There were slight increases in reports during winter months. We found a low, but statistically significant, correlation between successive weekly CDI case incidences (phi = 0.029, 95%CI: 0.009-0.049). This correlation was five times stronger in a subgroup analysis restricted to teaching hospitals (phi = 0.104, 95%CI: 0.048-0.159). Conclusions: The results suggest that symptomatic patient-to-patient transmission has been a source of CDI-acquisition in English hospitals in recent years, and that this might be a more important transmission route in teaching hospitals. Nonetheless, the weak correlation indicates that, in line with recent evidence, symptomatic cases might not be the primary source of nosocomial CDI in England.The burden of influenza in England by age and clinical risk group: A statistical analysis to inform vaccine policy
AbstractCromer, D., Van Hoek, A. J., Jit, M., Edmunds, W. J., Fleming, D., & Miller, E. (n.d.).Publication year
2014Journal title
Journal of InfectionVolume
68Issue
4Page(s)
363-371AbstractObjectives: To assess the burden of influenza by age and clinical status and use this to inform evaluations of the age and risk-based influenza vaccination policy in the United Kingdom. Methods: Weekly laboratory reports for influenza and 7 other respiratory pathogens were extracted from the national database and used in a regression model to estimate the proportion of acute respiratory illness outcomes attributable to each pathogen. Results: Influenza accounted for ~10% of the attributed respiratory admissions and deaths in hospital. Healthy children under five had the highest influenza admission rate (1.9/1000). The presence of co-morbidities increased the admission rate by 5.7 fold for 5-14 year olds (from 0.1 to 0.56/1000), the relative risk declining to 1.8 fold in 65+ year olds (from 0.46 to 0.84/1000). The majority (72%) of influenza-attributable deaths in hospital occurred in 65+ year olds with co-morbidities. Mortality in children under 15 years was low with around 12 influenza-attributable deaths in hospital per year in England the case fatality rate was substantially higher in risk than non-risk children. Infants under 6 months had the highest consultation and admission rates, around 70/1000 and 3/1000 respectively. Conclusions: Additional strategies are needed to reduce the remaining morbidity and mortality in the high-risk and elderly populations, and to protect healthy children currently not offered the benefits of vaccination.Two-dose strategies for human papillomavirus vaccination: How well do they need to protect?
AbstractJit, M., Choi, Y. H., Laprise, J. F., Boily, M. C., Drolet, M., & Brisson, M. (n.d.).Publication year
2014Journal title
VaccineVolume
32Issue
26Page(s)
3237-3242AbstractBackground: Two-dose human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine schedules may provide short-term protection but their long-term population impact is unknown. Methods: Two models of HPV transmission and associated cervical disease (squamous and glandular, neoplasia and cancer) were fitted to data from England and Canada on HPV epidemiology, sexual behaviour, cervical screening outcomes and cervical cancer incidence. Results: Models suggest that at 40-80% coverage, if two-dose schedules protect vaccinees for 20 years, then the benefits of the third dose are small. If two doses protect for 10 years, then the third dose may prevent as many cancers as the first two. At 80% coverage, numbers needed to receive a third dose to prevent an additional cancer are 5900-110,000 (England), 3000-5100 (Canada) with 20 years two-dose protection, and 2000-5300 (England), 760-950 (Canada) with 10 years two-dose protection. Conclusion: Results enable decision makers to quantify risks associated with two-dose schedules despite remaining uncertainties in vaccine duration and cross-protection.