Mark Jit

Chair and Professor of the Department of Global and Environmental Health

Professional overview

Mark Jit is the inaugural chair and a professor in the Department of Global and Environmental Health. He was formerly head of the Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology & Dynamics and co-director of the Global Health Economics Centre (GHECO) at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM). He holds honorary appointments at LSHTM as well as the University of Hong Kong (HKU) and the National University of Singapore (NUS).

Dr. Jit’s research focuses on epidemiological and economic modeling of vaccines to support evidence-based public health decision making. He has published papers covering a range of vaccine-preventable or potentially vaccine-preventable diseases including COVID-19, measles, HPV, pneumococcus, rotavirus, influenza, Group B Streptococcus, dengue, EV71 and RSV as well as methodological papers advancing the ways vaccines are evaluated. This work has influenced many of the major changes to immunization policy in countries around the world. Dr. Jit has served on a number of expert advisory committees in the UK as well as for international organizations such as the World Health Organization. He also organises or contributes to academic and professional courses on vaccine modeling, economics and decision science around the world.

Dr. Jit received his BSc and PhD in Mathematics from University College London, specializing in mathematical biology, and a Master of Public Health degree from King’s College London.

Visit Dr. Jit's Google Scholar's page to learn more about his research portfolio.

Education

BSc, Mathematics, University College London

PhD, Mathematics, University College London

MPH, Public Health, King's College London

Honors and awards

Clarivate Highly Cited Researcher (20222023)

Fellow of the Academy of Medical Sciences (2023)

Training Fund Award, Health Protection Agency (2007)

Andrew Rosen Prize, University College London (1999)

Institute of Mathematics and its Applications Award (1998)

Departmental Research Studentship, University College London (1998)

Student Union Commendation, University College London (1997)

Fillon Prize, University College London (1996)

Pathfinder Award, University College London (1995)

Publications

Publications

Oral human papillomavirus infection in men who have sex with men: A systematic review and meta-analysis

King, E. M., Oomeer, S., Gilson, R., Copas, A., Beddows, S., Soldan, K., Jit, M., Edmunds, W. J., & Sonnenberg, P. (n.d.).

Publication year

2016

Journal title

PloS one

Volume

11

Issue

7

10.1371/journal.pone.0157976

Abstract

Abstract

Background: The epidemiology of oral human papillomavirus (HPV) infection in men who have sex with men (MSM) differs from anogenital HPV infection. The impact of HPV vaccination has, to date, largely focussed on anogenital outcomes. Vaccination of MSM in the UK has been recommended and, if implemented, baseline estimates of oral HPV prevalence will be useful. Methods: We searched Medline, Embase and psycINFO databases for studies reporting prevalence, incidence, and clearance of oral HPV infection in MSM. We performed a random-effects meta-analysis and meta-regression on prevalence estimates and summarised within-study risk factors for oral HPV DNA detection and incidence/clearance rates. We also performed a meta-analysis of the effect of MSM on oral HPV prevalence compared to heterosexual men. Results: 26 publications were identified. The pooled prevalence of oral HPV16 from twelve estimates was 3.0% (95%CI 0.5-5.5) in HIV-negative and 4.7% (95%CI 2.1-7.3) in HIV-positive MSM. Median age of study participants explained 38% of heterogeneity (p<0.01) in HPV prevalence estimates (pooled = 17% and 29% in HIV-negative and HIV-positive, respectively; 22 estimates). Nine studies compared MSM to heterosexual men and found no difference in oral HPV prevalence (pooled OR 1.07 (95%CI 0.65-1.74)). The clearance rate was higher than incidence within studies. Type-specific concordance between oral and anogenital sites was rare. Conclusion: There was substantial heterogeneity between estimates of oral HPV prevalence in MSM populations that was partly explained by HIV status and median age.

Population-level impact, herd immunity, and elimination after human papillomavirus vaccination: a systematic review and meta-analysis of predictions from transmission-dynamic models

Brisson, M., Bénard, Élodie, Drolet, M., Bogaards, J. A., Baussano, I., Vänskä, S., Jit, M., Boily, M. C., Smith, M. A., Berkhof, J., Canfell, K., Chesson, H. W., Burger, E. A., Choi, Y. H., De Blasio, B. F., De Vlas, S. J., Guzzetta, G., Hontelez, J. A., Horn, J., … Walsh, C. (n.d.).

Publication year

2016

Journal title

The Lancet Public Health

Volume

1

Issue

1

Page(s)

e8-e17

10.1016/S2468-2667(16)30001-9

Abstract

Abstract

Background Modelling studies have been widely used to inform human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination policy decisions; however, many models exist and it is not known whether they produce consistent predictions of population-level effectiveness and herd effects. We did a systematic review and meta-analysis of model predictions of the long-term population-level effectiveness of vaccination against HPV 16, 18, 6, and 11 infection in women and men, to examine the variability in predicted herd effects, incremental benefit of vaccinating boys, and potential for HPV-vaccine-type elimination. Methods We searched MEDLINE and Embase for transmission-dynamic modelling studies published between Jan 1, 2009, and April 28, 2015, that predicted the population-level impact of vaccination on HPV 6, 11, 16, and 18 infections in high-income countries. We contacted authors to determine whether they were willing to produce new predictions for standardised scenarios. Strategies investigated were girls-only vaccination and girls and boys vaccination at age 12 years. Base-case vaccine characteristics were 100% efficacy and lifetime protection. We did sensitivity analyses by varying vaccination coverage, vaccine efficacy, and duration of protection. For all scenarios we pooled model predictions of relative reductions in HPV prevalence (RRprev) over time after vaccination and summarised results using the median and 10th and 90th percentiles (80% uncertainty intervals [UI]). Findings 16 of 19 eligible models from ten high-income countries provided predictions. Under base-case assumptions, 40% vaccination coverage and girls-only vaccination, the RRprev of HPV 16 among women and men was 0·53 (80% UI 0·46–0·68) and 0·36 (0·28–0·61), respectively, after 70 years. With 80% girls-only vaccination coverage, the RRprev of HPV 16 among women and men was 0·93 (0·90–1·00) and 0·83 (0·75–1·00), respectively. Vaccinating boys in addition to girls increased the RRprev of HPV 16 among women and men by 0·18 (0·13–0·32) and 0·35 (0·27–0·39) for 40% coverage, and 0·07 (0·00–0·10) and 0·16 (0·01–0·25) for 80% coverage, respectively. The RRprev were greater for HPV 6, 11, and 18 than for HPV 16 for all scenarios investigated. Finally at 80% coverage, most models predicted that girls and boys vaccination would eliminate HPV 6, 11, 16, and 18, with a median RRprev of 1·00 for women and men for all four HPV types. Variability in pooled findings was low, but increased with lower vaccination coverage and shorter vaccine protection (from lifetime to 20 years). Interpretation Although HPV models differ in structure, data used for calibration, and settings, our population-level predictions were generally concordant and suggest that strong herd effects are expected from vaccinating girls only, even with coverage as low as 20%. Elimination of HPV 16, 18, 6, and 11 is possible if 80% coverage in girls and boys is reached and if high vaccine efficacy is maintained over time. Funding Canadian Institutes of Health Research.

Public health impact and cost-effectiveness of the RTS,S/AS01 malaria vaccine: A systematic comparison of predictions from four mathematical models

Penny, M. A., Verity, R., Bever, C. A., Sauboin, C., Galactionova, K., Flasche, S., White, M. T., Wenger, E. A., Van De Velde, N., Pemberton-Ross, P., Griffin, J. T., Smith, T. A., Eckhoff, P. A., Muhib, F., Jit, M., & Ghani, A. C. (n.d.).

Publication year

2016

Journal title

The Lancet

Volume

387

Issue

10016

Page(s)

367-375

10.1016/S0140-6736(15)00725-4

Abstract

Abstract

Summary Background The phase 3 trial of the RTS,S/AS01 malaria vaccine candidate showed modest efficacy of the vaccine against Plasmodium falciparum malaria, but was not powered to assess mortality endpoints. Impact projections and cost-effectiveness estimates for longer timeframes than the trial follow-up and across a range of settings are needed to inform policy recommendations. We aimed to assess the public health impact and cost-effectiveness of routine use of the RTS,S/AS01 vaccine in African settings. Methods We compared four malaria transmission models and their predictions to assess vaccine cost-effectiveness and impact. We used trial data for follow-up of 32 months or longer to parameterise vaccine protection in the group aged 5-17 months. Estimates of cases, deaths, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) averted were calculated over a 15 year time horizon for a range of levels of Plasmodium falciparum parasite prevalence in 2-10 year olds (PfPR2-10; range 3-65%). We considered two vaccine schedules: three doses at ages 6, 7·5, and 9 months (three-dose schedule, 90% coverage) and including a fourth dose at age 27 months (four-dose schedule, 72% coverage). We estimated cost-effectiveness in the presence of existing malaria interventions for vaccine prices of US$2-10 per dose. Findings In regions with a PfPR2-10 of 10-65%, RTS,S/AS01 is predicted to avert a median of 93940 (range 20490-126540) clinical cases and 394 (127-708) deaths for the three-dose schedule, or 116480 (31450-160410) clinical cases and 484 (189-859) deaths for the four-dose schedule, per 100000 fully vaccinated children. A positive impact is also predicted at a PfPR2-10 of 5-10%, but there is little impact at a prevalence of lower than 3%. At $5 per dose and a PfPR2-10 of 10-65%, we estimated a median incremental cost-effectiveness ratio compared with current interventions of $30 (range 18-211) per clinical case averted and $80 (44-279) per DALY averted for the three-dose schedule, and of $25 (16-222) and $87 (48-244), respectively, for the four-dose schedule. Higher ICERs were estimated at low PfPR2-10 levels. Interpretation We predict a significant public health impact and high cost-effectiveness of the RTS,S/AS01 vaccine across a wide range of settings. Decisions about implementation will need to consider levels of malaria burden, the cost-effectiveness and coverage of other malaria interventions, health priorities, financing, and the capacity of the health system to deliver the vaccine. Funding PATH Malaria Vaccine Initiative; Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation; Global Good Fund; Medical Research Council; UK Department for International Development; GAVI, the Vaccine Alliance; WHO.

Rotavirus vaccines contribute towards universal health coverage in a mixed public–private healthcare system

Loganathan, T., Jit, M., Hutubessy, R., Ng, C. W., Lee, W. S., & Verguet, S. (n.d.).

Publication year

2016

Journal title

Tropical Medicine and International Health

Volume

21

Issue

11

Page(s)

1458-1467

10.1111/tmi.12766

Abstract

Abstract

Objectives: To evaluate rotavirus vaccination in Malaysia from the household's perspective. The extended cost-effectiveness analysis (ECEA) framework quantifies the broader value of universal vaccination starting with non-health benefits such as financial risk protection and equity. These dimensions better enable decision-makers to evaluate policy on the public finance of health programmes. Methods: The incidence, health service utilisation and household expenditure related to rotavirus gastroenteritis according to national income quintiles were obtained from local data sources. Multiple birth cohorts were distributed into income quintiles and followed from birth over the first five years of life in a multicohort, static model. Results: We found that the rich pay more out of pocket (OOP) than the poor, as the rich use more expensive private care. OOP payments among the poorest although small are high as a proportion of household income. Rotavirus vaccination results in substantial reduction in rotavirus episodes and expenditure and provides financial risk protection to all income groups. Poverty reduction benefits are concentrated amongst the poorest two income quintiles. Conclusion: We propose that universal vaccination complements health financing reforms in strengthening Universal Health Coverage (UHC). ECEA provides an important tool to understand the implications of vaccination for UHC, beyond traditional considerations of economic efficiency.

Routine Pediatric Enterovirus 71 Vaccination in China: a Cost-Effectiveness Analysis

Wu, J. T., Jit, M., Zheng, Y., Leung, K., Xing, W., Yang, J., Liao, Q., Cowling, B. J., Yang, B., Lau, E. H., Takahashi, S., Farrar, J. J., Grenfell, B. T., Leung, G. M., & Yu, H. (n.d.).

Publication year

2016

Journal title

PLoS Medicine

Volume

13

Issue

3

10.1371/journal.pmed.1001975

Abstract

Abstract

Background: China accounted for 87% (9.8 million/11.3 million) of all hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) cases reported to WHO during 2010–2014. Enterovirus 71 (EV71) is responsible for most of the severe HFMD cases. Three EV71 vaccines recently demonstrated good efficacy in children aged 6–71 mo. Here we assessed the cost-effectiveness of routine pediatric EV71 vaccination in China. Methods and Findings: We characterized the economic and health burden of EV71-associated HFMD (EV71-HFMD) in China using (i) the national surveillance database, (ii) virological surveillance records from all provinces, and (iii) a caregiver survey on the household costs and health utility loss for 1,787 laboratory-confirmed pediatric cases. Using a static model parameterized with these data, we estimated the effective vaccine cost (EVC, defined as cost/efficacy or simply the cost of a 100% efficacious vaccine) below which routine pediatric vaccination would be considered cost-effective. We performed the base-case analysis from the societal perspective with a willingness-to-pay threshold of one times the gross domestic product per capita (GDPpc) and an annual discount rate of 3%. We performed uncertainty analysis by (i) accounting for the uncertainty in the risk of EV71-HFMD due to missing laboratory data in the national database, (ii) excluding productivity loss of parents and caregivers, (iii) increasing the willingness-to-pay threshold to three times GDPpc, (iv) increasing the discount rate to 6%, and (v) accounting for the proportion of EV71-HFMD cases not registered by national surveillance. In each of these scenarios, we performed probabilistic sensitivity analysis to account for parametric uncertainty in our estimates of the risk of EV71-HFMD and the expected costs and health utility loss due to EV71-HFMD. Routine pediatric EV71 vaccination would be cost-saving if the all-inclusive EVC is below US$10.6 (95% CI US$9.7–US$11.5) and would remain cost-effective if EVC is below US$17.9 (95% CI US$16.9–US$18.8) in the base case, but these ceilings could be up to 66% higher if all the test-negative cases with missing laboratory data are EV71-HFMD. The EVC ceiling is (i) 10%–14% lower if productivity loss of parents/caregivers is excluded, (ii) 58%–84% higher if the willingness-to-pay threshold is increased to three times GDPpc, (iii) 14%–19% lower if the discount rate is increased to 6%, and (iv) 36% (95% CI 23%–50%) higher if the proportion of EV71-HFMD registered by national surveillance is the same as that observed in the three EV71 vaccine phase III trials. The validity of our results relies on the following assumptions: (i) self-reported hospital charges are a good proxy for the opportunity cost of care, (ii) the cost and health utility loss estimates based on laboratory-confirmed EV71-HFMD cases are representative of all EV71-HFMD cases, and (iii) the long-term average risk of EV71-HFMD in the future is similar to that registered by national surveillance during 2010–2013. Conclusions: Compared to no vaccination, routine pediatric EV71 vaccination would be very cost-effective in China if the cost of immunization (including all logistical, procurement, and administration costs needed to confer 5 y of vaccine protection) is below US$12.0–US$18.3, depending on the choice of vaccine among the three candidates. Given that the annual number of births in China has been around 16 million in recent years, the annual costs for routine pediatric EV71 vaccination at this cost range should not exceed US$192–US$293 million. Our results can be used to determine the optimal vaccine when the prices of the three vaccines are known.

Seasonal influenza vaccination delivery through community pharmacists in England: Evaluation of the London pilot

Atkins, K., Van Hoek, A. J., Watson, C., Baguelin, M., Choga, L., Patel, A., Raj, T., Jit, M., & Griffiths, U. (n.d.).

Publication year

2016

Journal title

BMJ open

Volume

6

Issue

2

10.1136/bmjopen-2015-009739

Abstract

Abstract

Objective: To evaluate the effectiveness and cost of the pan-London pharmacy initiative, a programme that allows administration of seasonal influenza vaccination to eligible patients at pharmacies. Design: We analysed 2013-2015 data on vaccination uptake in pharmacies via the Sonar reporting system, and the total vaccination uptake via 2011-2015 ImmForm general practitioner (GP) reporting system data. We conducted an online survey of London pharmacists who participate in the programme to assess time use data, vaccine choice, investment costs and opinions about the programme. We conducted an online survey of London GPs to assess vaccine choice of vaccine and opinions about the pharmacy vaccine delivery programme. Setting: All London boroughs. Participants: London-based GPs, and pharmacies that currently offer seasonal flu vaccination. Interventions: Not applicable. Main outcome measures: Comparison of annual vaccine uptake in London across risk groups from years before pharmacy vaccination introduction to after pharmacy vaccination introduction. Completeness of vaccine uptake reporting data. Cost to the National Health Service (NHS) of flu vaccine delivery at pharmacies with that at GPs. Cost to pharmacists of flu delivery. Opinions of pharmacists and GPs regarding the flu vaccine pharmacy initiative. Results: No significant change in the uptake of seasonal vaccination in any of the risk groups as a result of the pharmacy initiative. While on average a pharmacy-administered flu vaccine dose costs the NHS up to £2.35 less than a dose administered at a GP, a comparison of the 2 recording systems suggests there is substantial loss of data. Conclusions: Flu vaccine delivery through pharmacies shows potential for improving convenience for vaccine recipients. However, there is no evidence that vaccination uptake increases and the use of 2 separate recording systems leads to time-consuming data entry and missing vaccine record data.

The hidden health and economic burden of rotavirus gastroenteritis in Malaysia an estimation using multiple data sources

Loganathan, T., Ng, C. W., Lee, W. S., & Jit, M. (n.d.).

Publication year

2016

Journal title

Pediatric Infectious Disease Journal

Volume

35

Issue

6

Page(s)

601-606

10.1097/INF.0000000000001129

Abstract

Abstract

Background: Rotavirus gastroenteritis (RVGE) results in substantial mortality and morbidity worldwide. However, an accurate estimation of the health and economic burden of RVGE in Malaysia covering public, private and home treatment is lacking. Methods: Data from multiple sources were used to estimate diarrheal mortality and morbidity according to health service utilization. The proportion of this burden attributable to rotavirus was estimated from a communitybased study and a meta-analysis we conducted of primary hospital-based studies. Rotavirus incidence was determined by multiplying acute gastroenteritis incidence with estimates of the proportion of gastroenteritis attributable to rotavirus. The economic burden of rotavirus disease was estimated from the health systems and societal perspective. Results: Annually, rotavirus results in 27 deaths, 31,000 hospitalizations, 41,000 outpatient visits and 145,000 episodes of home-treated gastroenteritis in Malaysia. We estimate an annual rotavirus incidence of 1 death per 100,000 children and 12 hospitalizations, 16 outpatient clinic visits and 57 home-treated episodes per 1000 children under-5 years. Annually, RVGE is estimated to cost US$ 34 million to the healthcare provider and US$ 50 million to society. Productivity loss contributes almost a third of costs to society. Publicly, privately and home-treated episodes consist of 52%, 27% and 21%, respectively, of the total societal costs. Conclusions: RVGE represents a considerable health and economic burden in Malaysia. Much of the burden lies in privately or home-treated episodes and is poorly captured in previous studies. This study provides vital information for future evaluation of cost-effectiveness, which are necessary for policy-making regarding universal vaccination.

The Long-Term Safety, Public Health Impact, and Cost-Effectiveness of Routine Vaccination with a Recombinant, Live-Attenuated Dengue Vaccine (Dengvaxia): A Model Comparison Study

Flasche, S., Jit, M., Rodríguez-Barraquer, I., Coudeville, L., Recker, M., Koelle, K., Milne, G., Hladish, T. J., Perkins, T. A., Cummings, D. A., Dorigatti, I., Laydon, D. J., España, G., Kelso, J., Longini, I., Lourenco, J., Pearson, C. A., Reiner, R. C., Mier-y-Terán-Romero, L., … Ferguson, N. (n.d.).

Publication year

2016

Journal title

PLoS Medicine

Volume

13

Issue

11

10.1371/journal.pmed.1002181

Abstract

Abstract

Background: Large Phase III trials across Asia and Latin America have recently demonstrated the efficacy of a recombinant, live-attenuated dengue vaccine (Dengvaxia) over the first 25 mo following vaccination. Subsequent data collected in the longer-term follow-up phase, however, have raised concerns about a potential increase in hospitalization risk of subsequent dengue infections, in particular among young, dengue-naïve vaccinees. We here report predictions from eight independent modelling groups on the long-term safety, public health impact, and cost-effectiveness of routine vaccination with Dengvaxia in a range of transmission settings, as characterised by seroprevalence levels among 9-y-olds (SP9). These predictions were conducted for the World Health Organization to inform their recommendations on optimal use of this vaccine. Methods and Findings: The models adopted, with small variations, a parsimonious vaccine mode of action that was able to reproduce quantitative features of the observed trial data. The adopted mode of action assumed that vaccination, similarly to natural infection, induces transient, heterologous protection and, further, establishes a long-lasting immunogenic memory, which determines disease severity of subsequent infections. The default vaccination policy considered was routine vaccination of 9-y-old children in a three-dose schedule at 80% coverage. The outcomes examined were the impact of vaccination on infections, symptomatic dengue, hospitalised dengue, deaths, and cost-effectiveness over a 30-y postvaccination period. Case definitions were chosen in accordance with the Phase III trials. All models predicted that in settings with moderate to high dengue endemicity (SP9 ≥ 50%), the default vaccination policy would reduce the burden of dengue disease for the population by 6%–25% (all simulations: –3%–34%) and in high-transmission settings (SP9 ≥ 70%) by 13%–25% (all simulations: 10%– 34%). These endemicity levels are representative of the participating sites in both Phase III trials. In contrast, in settings with low transmission intensity (SP9 ≤ 30%), the models predicted that vaccination could lead to a substantial increase in hospitalisation because of dengue. Modelling reduced vaccine coverage or the addition of catch-up campaigns showed that the impact of vaccination scaled approximately linearly with the number of people vaccinated. In assessing the optimal age of vaccination, we found that targeting older children could increase the net benefit of vaccination in settings with moderate transmission intensity (SP9 = 50%). Overall, vaccination was predicted to be potentially cost-effective in most endemic settings if priced competitively. The results are based on the assumption that the vaccine acts similarly to natural infection. This assumption is consistent with the available trial results but cannot be directly validated in the absence of additional data. Furthermore, uncertainties remain regarding the level of protection provided against disease versus infection and the rate at which vaccine-induced protection declines. Conclusions: Dengvaxia has the potential to reduce the burden of dengue disease in areas of moderate to high dengue endemicity. However, the potential risks of vaccination in areas with limited exposure to dengue as well as the local costs and benefits of routine vaccination are important considerations for the inclusion of Dengvaxia into existing immunisation programmes. These results were important inputs into WHO global policy for use of this licensed dengue vaccine.

The projected effectiveness of Clostridium difficile vaccination as part of an integrated infection control strategy

Van Kleef, E., Deeny, S. R., Jit, M., Cookson, B., Goldenberg, S. D., Edmunds, W. J., & Robotham, J. V. (n.d.).

Publication year

2016

Journal title

Vaccine

Volume

34

Issue

46

Page(s)

5562-5570

10.1016/j.vaccine.2016.09.046

Abstract

Abstract

Background Early clinical trials of a Clostridium difficile toxoid vaccine show efficacy in preventing C. difficile infection (CDI). The optimal patient group to target for vaccination programmes remains unexplored. This study performed a model-based evaluation of the effectiveness of different CDI vaccination strategies, within the context of existing infection prevention and control strategies such as antimicrobial stewardship. Methods An individual-based transmission model of CDI in a high-risk hospital setting was developed. The model incorporated data on patient movements between the hospital, and catchment populations from the community and long-term care facilities (LTCF), using English national and local level data for model-parameterisation. We evaluated vaccination of: (1) discharged patients who had an CDI-occurrence in the ward; (2) LTCF-residents; (3) Planned elective surgical admissions and (4) All three strategies combined. Results Without vaccination, 10.9 [Interquartile range: 10.0–11.8] patients per 1000 ward admissions developed CDI, of which 31% were ward-acquired. Immunising all three patient groups resulted in a 43% [42–44], reduction of ward-onset CDI on average. Among the strategies restricting vaccination to one target group, vaccinating elective surgical patients proved most effective (35% [34–36] reduction), but least efficient, requiring 146 [133–162] courses to prevent one ICU-onset case. Immunising LTCF residents was most efficient, requiring just 13 [11–16] courses to prevent one case, but considering this only comprised a small group of our hospital population, it only reduced ICU-onset CDI by 9% [8–11]. Vaccination proved most efficient when ward-based transmission rates and antimicrobial consumption were high. Conclusions Strategy success depends on the interaction between hospital and catchment populations, and importantly, consideration of importations of CDI from outside the hospital which we found to substantially impact hospital dynamics. Vaccination may be most desirable in settings or patient groups where levels of broad-spectrum antimicrobial use are high and difficult to reduce.

A systematic review of the social and economic burden of influenza in low- and middle-income countries

De Francisco Shapovalova, N., Donadel, M., Jit, M., & Hutubessy, R. (n.d.).

Publication year

2015

Journal title

Vaccine

Volume

33

Issue

48

Page(s)

6537-6544

10.1016/j.vaccine.2015.10.066

Abstract

Abstract

Objectives: The economic burden of seasonal influenza outbreaks as well as influenza pandemics in lower- and middle-income countries (LMIC) has yet to be specifically systematically reviewed. The aim of this systematic review is to assess the evidence of influenza economic burden assessment methods in LMIC and to quantify the economic consequences of influenza disease in these countries, including broader opportunity costs in terms of impaired social progress and economic development. Methods: We conducted an all language literature search across 5 key databases using an extensive list of key words for the time period 1950-2013. We included studies which explored direct costs (medical and non-medical), indirect costs (productivity losses), and broader economic impact in LMIC associated with different influenza outcomes such as confirmed seasonal influenza infection, influenza-like illnesses, and pandemic influenza. Results: We included 62 full-text studies in English, Spanish, Russian, Chinese languages, mostly from the countries of Latin American and the Caribbean and East Asia and Pacific with pertinent cost data found in 39 papers. Estimates for direct and indirect costs were the highest in Latin American and the Caribbean. Compared to high-income economies, direct costs in LMIC were lower and productivity losses higher. Evidence on broader impact of influenza included impact on the wider national economy, security dimension, medical insurance policy, legal frameworks, distributional impact, and investment flows. Conclusion: The economic burden of influenza in LMIC encompasses multiple dimensions such as direct costs to the health service and households, indirect costs due to productivity losses as well as broader detriments to the wider economy. Evidence from sub-Saharan Africa and in pregnant women remains very limited. Heterogeneity of methods used to estimate cost components makes data synthesis challenging. There is a strong need for standardizing research, data collection and evaluation methods for both direct and indirect cost components.

Building a new communication paradigm: Can we influence influenza perception?

Jit, M., McKenzie, D., Odugleh-Kolev, A., & Suisse, S. (n.d.).

Publication year

2015

Journal title

Vaccine

Volume

33

Issue

49

Page(s)

7044-7046

10.1016/j.vaccine.2015.08.051

Burden of severe pneumonia, pneumococcal pneumonia and pneumonia deaths in Indian states: Modelling based estimates

Farooqui, H., Jit, M., Heymann, D. L., & Zodpey, S. (n.d.).

Publication year

2015

Journal title

PloS one

Volume

10

Issue

6

10.1371/journal.pone.0129191

Abstract

Abstract

The burden of severe pneumonia in terms of morbidity and mortality is unknown in India especially at sub-national level. In this context, we aimed to estimate the number of severe pneumonia episodes, pneumococcal pneumonia episodes and pneumonia deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2010. We adapted and parameterized a mathematical model based on the epidemiological concept of potential impact fraction developed CHERG for this analysis. The key parameters that determine the distribution of severe pneumonia episode across Indian states were state-specific under-5 population, state-specific prevalence of selected definite pneumonia risk factors and meta-estimates of relative risks for each of these risk factors. We applied the incidence estimates and attributable fraction of risk factors to population estimates for 2010 of each Indian state. We then estimated the number of pneumococcal pneumonia cases by applying the vaccine probe methodology to an existing trial. We estimated mortality due to severe pneumonia and pneumococcal pneumonia by combining incidence estimates with case fatality ratios from multi-centric hospital-based studies. Our results suggest that in 2010, 3.6 million (3.3-3.9 million) episodes of severe pneumonia and 0.35 million (0.31-0.40 million) all cause pneumonia deaths occurred in children younger than 5 years in India. The states that merit special mention include Uttar Pradesh where 18.1% children reside but contribute 24% of pneumonia cases and 26% pneumonia deaths, Bihar (11.3% children, 16% cases, 22% deaths) Madhya Pradesh (6.6% children, 9% cases, 12% deaths), and Rajasthan (6.6% children, 8% cases, 11% deaths). Further, we estimated that 0.56 million (0.49-0.64 million) severe episodes of pneumococcal pneumonia and 105 thousand (92-119 thousand) pneumococcal deaths occurred in India. The top contributors to India's pneumococcal pneumonia burden were Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan in that order. Our results highlight the need to improve access to care and increase coverage and equity of pneumonia preventing vaccines in states with high pneumonia burden.

Calibration of complex models through bayesian evidence synthesis: A demonstration and tutorial

Jackson, C. H., Jit, M., Sharples, L. D., & De Angelis, D. (n.d.).

Publication year

2015

Journal title

Medical Decision Making

Volume

35

Issue

2

Page(s)

148-161

10.1177/0272989X13493143

Abstract

Abstract

Decision-analytic models must often be informed using data that are only indirectly related to the main model parameters. The authors outline how to implement a Bayesian synthesis of diverse sources of evidence to calibrate the parameters of a complex model. A graphical model is built to represent how observed data are generated from statistical models with unknown parameters and how those parameters are related to quantities of interest for decision making. This forms the basis of an algorithm to estimate a posterior probability distribution, which represents the updated state of evidence for all unknowns given all data and prior beliefs. This process calibrates the quantities of interest against data and, at the same time, propagates all parameter uncertainties to the results used for decision making. To illustrate these methods, the authors demonstrate how a previously developed Markov model for the progression of human papillomavirus (HPV-16) infection was rebuilt in a Bayesian framework. Transition probabilities between states of disease severity are inferred indirectly from cross-sectional observations of prevalence of HPV-16 and HPV-16-related disease by age, cervical cancer incidence, and other published information. Previously, a discrete collection of plausible scenarios was identified but with no further indication of which of these are more plausible. Instead, the authors derive a Bayesian posterior distribution, in which scenarios are implicitly weighted according to how well they are supported by the data. In particular, we emphasize the appropriate choice of prior distributions and checking and comparison of fitted models.

Comparison of two dose and three dose human papillomavirus vaccine schedules: Cost effectiveness analysis based on transmission model

Jit, M., Brisson, M., Laprise, J. F., & Choi, Y. H. (n.d.).

Publication year

2015

Journal title

BMJ (Online)

Volume

350

10.1136/bmj.g7584

Abstract

Abstract

Objective: To investigate the incremental cost effectiveness of two dose human papillomavirus vaccination and of additionally giving a third dose. Design: Cost effectiveness study based on a transmission dynamic model of human papillomavirus vaccination. Two dose schedules for bivalent or quadrivalent human papillomavirus vaccines were assumed to provide 10, 20, or 30 years' vaccine type protection and cross protection or lifelong vaccine type protection without cross protection. Three dose schedules were assumed to give lifelong vaccine type and cross protection. Setting: United Kingdom. Population: Males and females aged 12-74 years. Interventions: No, two, or three doses of human papillomavirus vaccine given routinely to 12 year old girls, with an initial catch-up campaign to 18 years. Main outcome measure: Costs (from the healthcare provider's perspective), health related utilities, and incremental cost effectiveness ratios. Results: Giving at least two doses of vaccine seems to be highly cost effective across the entire range of scenarios considered at the quadrivalent vaccine list price of £86.50 (€109.23; $136.00) per dose. If two doses give only 10 years' protection but adding a third dose extends this to lifetime protection, then the third dose also seems to be cost effective at £86.50 per dose (median incremental cost effectiveness ratio £17 000, interquartile range £11 700-£25 800). If two doses protect for more than 20 years, then the third dose will have to be priced substantially lower (median threshold price £31, interquartile range £28-£35) to be cost effective. Results are similar for a bivalent vaccine priced at £80.50 per dose and when the same scenarios are explored by parameterising a Canadian model (HPV-ADVISE) with economic data from the United Kingdom. Conclusions: Two dose human papillomavirus vaccine schedules are likely to be the most cost effective option provided protection lasts for at least 20 years. As the precise duration of two dose schedules may not be known for decades, cohorts given two doses should be closely monitored.

Controlling measles using supplemental immunization activities: A mathematical model to inform optimal policy

Verguet, S., Johri, M., Morris, S. K., Gauvreau, C. L., Jha, P., & Jit, M. (n.d.).

Publication year

2015

Journal title

Vaccine

Volume

33

Issue

10

Page(s)

1291-1296

10.1016/j.vaccine.2014.11.050

Abstract

Abstract

Background: The Measles & Rubella Initiative, a broad consortium of global health agencies, has provided support to measles-burdened countries, focusing on sustaining high coverage of routine immunization of children and supplementing it with a second dose opportunity for measles vaccine through supplemental immunization activities (SIAs). We estimate optimal scheduling of SIAs in countries with the highest measles burden. Methods: We develop an age-stratified dynamic compartmental model of measles transmission. We explore the frequency of SIAs in order to achieve measles control in selected countries and two Indian states with high measles burden. Specifically, we compute the maximum allowable time period between two consecutive SIAs to achieve measles control. Results: Our analysis indicates that a single SIA will not control measles transmission in any of the countries with high measles burden. However, regular SIAs at high coverage levels are a viable strategy to prevent measles outbreaks. The periodicity of SIAs differs between countries and even within a single country, and is determined by population demographics and existing routine immunization coverage. Conclusions: Our analysis can guide country policymakers deciding on the optimal scheduling of SIA campaigns and the best combination of routine and SIA vaccination to control measles.

Discounting in the evaluation of the cost-effectiveness of a vaccination programme: A critical review

Jit, M., & Mibei, W. (n.d.).

Publication year

2015

Journal title

Vaccine

Volume

33

Issue

32

Page(s)

3788-3794

10.1016/j.vaccine.2015.06.084

Abstract

Abstract

Discounting future costs and health benefits usually has a large effect on results of cost-effectiveness evaluations of vaccination because of delays between the initial expenditure in the programme and the health benefits from averting disease. Most guidelines currently recommend discounting both costs and health effects at a positive, constant, common rate back to a common point in time. A review of 84 published economic evaluations of vaccines found that most of them apply these recommendations. However, both technical and normative arguments have been presented for discounting health at a different rate to consumption (differential discounting), discounting at a rate that changes over time (non-constant discounting), discounting intra-generational and inter-generational effects at a different rate (two-stage discounting), and discounting the health gains from an intervention to a different discount year from the time of intervention (delayed discounting). These considerations are particularly acute for vaccines, because their effects can occur in a different generation from the one paying for them, and because the time of vaccination, of infection aversion, and of disease aversion usually differ. Using differential, two-stage or delayed discounting in model-based cost-effectiveness evaluations of vaccination raises technical challenges, but mechanisms have been proposed to overcome them.

Estimating costs of care for meningitis infections in low- and middle-income countries

Portnoy, A., Jit, M., Lauer, J., Blommaert, A., Ozawa, S., Stack, M., Murray, J., & Hutubessy, R. (n.d.).

Publication year

2015

Journal title

Vaccine

Volume

33

Page(s)

A240-A247

10.1016/j.vaccine.2014.11.061

Abstract

Abstract

Meningitis infections are often associated with high mortality and risk of sequelae. The costs of treatment and care for meningitis are a great burden on health care systems, particularly in resource-limited settings. The objective of this study is to review data on the costs of care for meningitis in low- and middle-income countries, as well as to show how results could be extrapolated to countries without sound data.We conducted a systematic review of the literature from six databases to identify studies examining the cost of care in low- and middle-income countries for all age groups with suspected, probable, or confirmed meningitis. We extracted data on treatment costs and sequelae by infectious agent and/or pathogen, where possible. Using multiple regression analysis, a relationship between hospital costs and associated determinants was investigated in order to predict costs in countries with missing data. This relationship was used to predict treatment costs for all 144 low- and middle-income countries.The methodology of conducting a systematic review, extrapolating, and setting up a standard database can be used as a tool to inform cost-effectiveness analyses in situations where cost of care data are poor. Both acute and long-term costs of meningitis could be extrapolated to countries without reliable data. Although only bacterial causes of meningitis can be vaccine-preventable, a better understanding of the treatment costs for meningitis is crucial for low- and middle-income countries to assess the cost-effectiveness of proposed interventions in their country. This cost information will be important as inputs in future cost-effectiveness studies, particularly for vaccines.

Fewer than three doses of HPV vaccine

Jit, M., Laprise, J. F., Choi, Y. H., & Brisson, M. (n.d.). In The Lancet Oncology (1–).

Publication year

2015

Volume

16

Issue

9

Page(s)

e423-e424

10.1016/S1470-2045(15)00229-6

Household catastrophic healthcare expenditure and impoverishment due to rotavirus gastroenteritis requiring hospitalization in Malaysia

Loganathan, T., Lee, W. S., Lee, K. F., Jit, M., & Ng, C. W. (n.d.).

Publication year

2015

Journal title

PloS one

Volume

10

Issue

5

10.1371/journal.pone.0125878

Abstract

Abstract

Background: While healthcare costs for rotavirus gastroenteritis requiring hospitalization may be burdensome on households in Malaysia, exploration on the distribution and catastrophic impact of these expenses on households are lacking. Objectives: We assessed the economic burden, levels and distribution of catastrophic healthcare expenditure, the poverty impact on households and inequities related to healthcare payments for acute gastroenteritis requiring hospitalization in Malaysia. Methods: A two-year prospective, hospital-based study was conducted from 2008 to 2010 in an urban (Kuala Lumpur) and rural (Kuala Terengganu) setting in Malaysia. All children under the age of 5 years admitted for acute gastroenteritis were included. Patients were screened for rotavirus and information on healthcare expenditure was obtained. Results: Of the 658 stool samples collected at both centers, 248 (38%) were positive for rotavirus. Direct and indirect costs incurred were significantly higher in Kuala Lumpur compared with Kuala Terengganu (US$222 Vs. US$45; p[[amp]]lt;0.001). The mean direct and indirect costs for rotavirus gastroenteritis consisted 20% of monthly household income in Kuala Lumpur, ascompared with only 5% in Kuala Terengganu. Direct medical costs paid out-of-pocket caused 141 (33%) households in Kuala Lumpur to experience catastrophic expenditure and 11 (3%) households to incur poverty. However in Kuala Terengganu, only one household (0.5%) experienced catastrophic healthcare expenditure and none were impoverished. The lowest income quintile in Kuala Lumpur was more likely to experience catastrophic payments compared to the highest quintile (87% vs 8%). The concentration index for out-of-pocket healthcare payments was closer to zero at Kuala Lumpur (0.03) than at Kuala Terengganu (0.24). Conclusions: While urban households were wealthier, healthcare expenditure due to gastroenteritis had more catastrophic and poverty impact on the urban poor. Universal rotavirus vaccination would reduce both disease burden and health inequities in Malaysia.

Human papillomavirus DNA in men who have sex with men: Type-specific prevalence, risk factors and implications for vaccination strategies

King, E. M., Gilson, R., Beddows, S., Soldan, K., Panwar, K., Young, C., Prah, P., Jit, M., Edmunds, W. J., & Sonnenberg, P. (n.d.).

Publication year

2015

Journal title

British Journal of Cancer

Volume

112

Issue

9

Page(s)

1585-1593

10.1038/bjc.2015.90

Abstract

Abstract

Background:Human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination of girls will have relatively little effect on HPV-related disease in men who have sex with men (MSM). We determined HPV prevalence and risk factors in MSM to inform the potential effectiveness of vaccinating MSM.Methods:Cross-sectional study of 522 MSM aged 18-40 attending a London sexual health clinic who completed a computer-assisted self-interview. Urine and two swabs (anal and penile/scrotal/perianal) were collected and tested using an in-house Luminex-based HPV genotyping system.Results:Prevalence of DNA of the vaccine-preventable HPV types in ano-genital specimens of men was 87/511 (17.0%), 166/511 (32.5%) and 232/511 (45.4%) for the bivalent (HPV16/18), quadrivalent (HPV6/11/16/18) and nonavalent (HPV6/11/16/18/31/33/45/52/58) vaccine types, respectively. A total of 25.1% had one of the quadrivalent types, and 7.4% had 2+ types. Median age at first anal sex was 19 (IQR 17-23) and at first clinic attendance was 24 (IQR 20-27). The increase in the odds of any HPV infection per year of age was 4.7% (95% CI 1.2-8.4).Conclusions:On the basis of the current infection status, most MSM, even among a high-risk population attending a sexual health clinic, are not currently infected with the vaccine-type HPV. A targeted vaccination strategy for MSM in the UK could have substantial benefits.

Oral human papillomavirus (HPV) infection in men who have sex with men: Prevalence and lack of anogenital concordance

King, E. M., Gilson, R., Beddows, S., Soldan, K., Panwar, K., Young, C., Jit, M., Edmunds, W. J., & Sonnenberg, P. (n.d.).

Publication year

2015

Journal title

Sexually transmitted infections

Volume

91

Issue

4

Page(s)

284-286

10.1136/sextrans-2014-051955

Abstract

Abstract

Objectives To estimate the prevalence of oral detectable human papillomavirus (HPV) DNA in HIVnegative men who have sex with men (MSM) attending a sexual health clinic in London and concordance with anogenital HPV infection. Such data are important to improve our understanding of the epidemiology of oral HPV and the potential use of vaccines to prevent oropharyngeal cancers. Methods Paired oral rinse samples and anogenital samples were available from 151 HIV-negative MSM within a larger cross-sectional survey. All samples were tested in parallel for 21 types of HPV DNA using an inhouse assay. Results The median age of participants was 30 (IQR 2535). The prevalence of any oral HPV and of high-risk HPV (HR-HPV) was 13.7% (n=21; 95% CI 8.7 to 20.2) and 5.9% (n=9; 95% CI 2.7 to 10.9) compared with 64.9% (n=98; 95% CI 56.7 to 72.5) and 34.4% (n=52; 95% CI 26.9 to 42.6) in any anogenital sample, respectively. The prevalence of types prevented by the bivalent (HPV16/18), quadrivalent (HPV6/11/16/18) and nonavalent (HPV6/11/16/18/31/33/45/52/58) vaccines was 1.3% (95% CI 0.2 to 4.7), 2.6% (95% CI 0.7 to 6.6) and 4.6% (95% CI 1.9 to 9.3), respectively. There was no concordance between HPV genotypes detected in oral and anogenital sites. Conclusions HR-HPV DNA, including HPV 16/18, was detected in oral specimens from HIV-negative MSM attending sexual health clinics, suggesting a potential role for vaccination, but is far less common than anogenital infection. How this relates to the risk and natural history of HPV-related head and neck cancers warrants further study. Lack of concordance with anogenital infection also suggests that oral HPV infection should be considered separately when estimating potential vaccine impact.

Quantifying Parameter and Structural Uncertainty of Dynamic Disease Transmission Models Using MCMC: An Application to Rotavirus Vaccination in England and Wales

Bilcke, J., Chapman, R., Atchison, C., Cromer, D., Johnson, H., Willem, L., Cox, M., Edmunds, W. J., & Jit, M. (n.d.).

Publication year

2015

Journal title

Medical Decision Making

Volume

35

Issue

5

Page(s)

633-647

10.1177/0272989X14566013

Abstract

Abstract

Background. Two vaccines (Rotarix and RotaTeq) are highly effective at preventing severe rotavirus disease. Rotavirus vaccination has been introduced in the United Kingdom and other countries partly based on modeling and cost-effectiveness results. However, most of these models fail to account for the uncertainty about several vaccine characteristics and the mechanism of vaccine action. Methods. A deterministic dynamic transmission model of rotavirus vaccination in the United Kingdom was developed. This improves on previous models by 1) allowing for 2 different mechanisms of action for Rotarix and RotaTeq, 2) using clinical trial data to understand these mechanisms, and 3) accounting for uncertainty by using Markov Chain Monte Carlo. Results. In the long run, Rotarix and RotaTeq are predicted to reduce the overall rotavirus incidence by 50% (39%-63%) and 44% (30%-62%), respectively but with an increase in incidence in primary school children and adults up to 25 y of age. The vaccines are estimated to give more protection than 1 or 2 natural infections. The duration of protection is highly uncertain but has only impact on the predicted reduction in rotavirus burden for values lower than 10 y. The 2 vaccine mechanism structures fit equally well with the clinical trial data. Long-term postvaccination dynamics cannot be predicted reliably with the data available. Conclusion. Accounting for the joint uncertainty of several vaccine characteristics resulted in more insight into which of these are crucial for determining the impact of rotavirus vaccination. Data for up to at least 10 y postvaccination and covering older children and adults are crucial to address remaining questions on the impact of widespread rotavirus vaccination.

Stakeholders' perception on including broader economic impact of vaccines in economic evaluations in low and middle income countries: A mixed methods study

Van Der Putten, I. M., Evers, S. M., Deogaonkar, R., Jit, M., & Hutubessy, R. C. (n.d.).

Publication year

2015

Journal title

BMC public health

Volume

15

Issue

1

10.1186/s12889-015-1638-0

Abstract

Abstract

Background: Current health economic evaluation guidelines mainly concentrate on immediate health gains and cost savings for the individual involved in the intervention. However, it has been argued that these guidelines are too narrow to capture the full impact of vaccination in low and middle income countries. The inclusion of broader economic impact of vaccines (BEIV) has therefore been proposed. Some examples of these are productivity-related gains, macro-economic impact, and different externalities. Despite their potency, the extent to which such benefits can and should be incorporated into economic evaluations of vaccination is still unclear. This mixed methods study aims to assess the relevance of BEIV to different stakeholders involved in the vaccine introduction decision making process. Methods: In this mixed method study an internet based survey was sent to attendees of the New and Underutilized Vaccines Initiative meeting in Montreux, Switzerland in 2011. Additionally, semi-structured interviews of 15 minutes each were conducted during the meeting. Study participants included decision makers, experts and funders of vaccines and immunization programs in low and middle income countries. Descriptive analysis of the survey, along with identification of common themes and factors extracted from the interviews and open survey questions was undertaken. Results: Evidence on macro-economic impact, burden of disease and ecological effects were perceived as being most valuable towards aiding decision making for vaccine introduction by the 26 survey respondents. The 14 interviewees highlighted the importance of burden of disease and different types of indirect effects. Furthermore, some new interpretations of BEIVs were discussed, such as the potential negative impact of wastage during immunization programs and the idea of using vaccines as a platform for delivering other types of health interventions. Interviewees also highlighted the importance of using a broader perspective in connection to measuring economic impacts, particularly when attempting to derive the value of newer, more expensive vaccines. Conclusion: According to participants, BEIVs were seen as being equally important as traditional outcome measures used in cost-effectiveness analyses. Such insight can be used to shape research agendas within this field and to eventually create broader, more inclusive practical guidelines for economic evaluations of vaccines.

Systematic review of economic evaluations of vaccination programs in mainland China: Are they sufficient to inform decision making?

Pan, X. F., Griffiths, U. K., Pennington, M., Yu, H., & Jit, M. (n.d.).

Publication year

2015

Journal title

Vaccine

Volume

33

Issue

46

Page(s)

6164-6172

10.1016/j.vaccine.2015.09.081

Abstract

Abstract

The purpose of the study was to systematically review economic evaluations of vaccine programs conducted in mainland China. We searched for economic evaluations of vaccination in China published prior to August 3, 2015 in eight English-language and three Chinese-language databases. Each article was appraised against the 19-item Consensus on Health Economic Criteria list (CHEC-list). We found 23 papers evaluating vaccines against hepatitis B (8 articles), Streptococcus pneumoniae (5 articles), human papillomavirus (3 articles), Japanese encephalitis (2 articles), rotavirus (2 articles), hepatitis A (1 article), Enterovirus 71 (1 article) and influenza (1 article). Studies conformed to a mean of 12 (range: 6-18) items in the CHEC-list criteria. Five of six Chinese-language articles conformed to fewer than half of the 19 criteria items. The main criteria that studies failed to conform to included: inappropriate measurement (20 articles) and valuation (18 articles) of treatment and/or vaccination costs, no discussion about distributional implications (18 articles), missing major health outcomes (14 articles), no discussion about generalizability to other contexts (14 articles), and inadequate sensitivity analysis (13 articles). In addition, ten studies did not include major cost components of vaccination programs, and nine did not report outcomes in terms of life years even in cases where QALYs or DALYs were calculated. Only 13 studies adopted a societal perspective for analysis. All studies concluded that the appraised vaccination programs were cost-effective except for one evaluation of universal 7-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV-7) in children. However, three of the five studies on PCV-7 showed poor overall quality, and the number of studies on vaccines other than hepatitis B vaccine and PCV-7 was limited. In conclusion, major methodological flaws and reporting problems exist in current economic evaluations of vaccination programs in China. Local guidelines for good practice and reporting, institutional mechanisms and education may help to improve the overall quality of these evaluations.

Systematic review of model-based cervical screening evaluations

Mendes, D., Bains, I., Vanni, T., & Jit, M. (n.d.).

Publication year

2015

Journal title

BMC Cancer

Volume

15

Issue

1

10.1186/s12885-015-1332-8

Abstract

Abstract

Background: Optimising population-based cervical screening policies is becoming more complex due to the expanding range of screening technologies available and the interplay with vaccine-induced changes in epidemiology. Mathematical models are increasingly being applied to assess the impact of cervical cancer screening strategies. Methods: We systematically reviewed MEDLINE®, Embase, Web of Science®, EconLit, Health Economic Evaluation Database, and The Cochrane Library databases in order to identify the mathematical models of human papillomavirus (HPV) infection and cervical cancer progression used to assess the effectiveness and/or cost-effectiveness of cervical cancer screening strategies. Key model features and conclusions relevant to decision-making were extracted. Results: We found 153 articles meeting our eligibility criteria published up to May 2013. Most studies (72/153) evaluated the introduction of a new screening technology, with particular focus on the comparison of HPV DNA testing and cytology (n = 58). Twenty-eight in forty of these analyses supported HPV DNA primary screening implementation. A few studies analysed more recent technologies - rapid HPV DNA testing (n = 3), HPV DNA self-sampling (n = 4), and genotyping (n = 1) - and were also supportive of their introduction. However, no study was found on emerging molecular markers and their potential utility in future screening programmes. Most evaluations (113/153) were based on models simulating aggregate groups of women at risk of cervical cancer over time without accounting for HPV infection transmission. Calibration to country-specific outcome data is becoming more common, but has not yet become standard practice. Conclusions: Models of cervical screening are increasingly used, and allow extrapolation of trial data to project the population-level health and economic impact of different screening policy. However, post-vaccination analyses have rarely incorporated transmission dynamics. Model calibration to country-specific data is increasingly common in recent studies.